Ping: Blackjack Players

[Passacaglia]

I'll admit it -- every so often I'll fire up TCY and play some blackjack, and try using the Martingale System. It works extremely poorly, since you can only bet 10, 20, 30, 40, or 50, so very quickly I'm just betting 50 to get things even -- every once in a while I'll work my way back positive and start betting 10 again, but I'm back to 50 before too long. It's pretty fun.

Jim -- can you put this at the top of your TCY 2 list? We need more customization of bets placed in the blackjack game. kthx

[Coffee Warlord]

I just played blackjack online for a few minutes, and I finished up 30 dollars using the Martingale system!

MAYBE IT DOES WORK, GUYS!

[cartman]

A little over 5 years since this epic thread was started.

Heading to Vegas this weekend for my uncle-to-be's bachelor party. My aunt was trying to extol the virtues of the martingale system, and this thread was used to do some quick edumacation.

[cartman]

So, on this epic bachelor party referenced in the above post, we had a cabana at Bare, the topless pool at The Mirage, comped for the weekend. On that Saturday, Kevin Dillon from Entourage had his birthday party at Bare. The DJ announced at one point that "Don Motherfucking Johnson is in the house!" So we started looking around for the actor, and didn't see him. Now I know who he was talking about. The guy who took East Coast casinos for $10+ million playing blackjack last year.

The Man Who Broke Atlantic City - Magazine - The Atlantic

[EagleFan]

Thank you for bumping this!!!

[corbes]

Did we ever decide whether jbmagic was real or an elaborate troll? This thread feels like the Zapruder film for that question...

[cartman]

Originally Posted by jbmagic

Please don't dish the strategy, until you at least try it.

Try it for fun with free money to see how well it works.

He was so awesome, that we completely whiffed on "please don't dish the strategy". That ranks up there with asswhite in jbspeak.

[Lathum]

Amazing this thread hasn't been bumper for 2 years.

[Barkeep49]

From The rise and fall of the Bombshell Bandit - BBC News

she discovered baccarat, and suddenly nothing else in the world mattered. "I can walk past roulette," she says. "But if I even see baccarat, my heart leaps."
For decades, the game of baccarat was played privately, in lavish high-roller pits for the enjoyment of millionaires, and James Bond in the movies. In this simple card game, players bet on which of two hands will add up closest to nine. "Baccarat is not beatable… it's a lottery," says US gambling journalist Michael Kaplan. "When you see these people writing down the progress of the game… it's idiotic." Kaur played a progressive game, doubling her bet after each loss to earn her money back. It is this type of aggressive play that has seen baccarat revenue in Nevada triple since 2002. Today it earns $1.4bn a year, more than blackjack, craps, and poker combined.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

From The rise and fall of the Bombshell Bandit - BBC News

That article is titled wrong. If you play it right, there is no fall. There is only rise.

[QuikSand]

love

[Ajaxab]

I so miss jbmagic. He never failed to entertain. His username should be retired and hung from the FOFC banner.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

From The rise and fall of the Bombshell Bandit - BBC News

Thanks for sharing the article. Excellent read.

[Izulde]

One of my friends who's a dealer here in Vegas is taking a class in baccarat for professional development. So it's funny that it pops up here.

[stevew]

Phil Ivey knows a lot about baccarat

[albionmoonlight]

Looks like we're going to Vegas in February to celebrate my Sis-in-law's birthday. So I was pulling up a basic strategy guide to start quizzing myself in preparation.

And, of course, I had to bump this thread.

[QuikSand]

aces

[QuikSand]

(split 'em)

[MIJB#19]

Good times.

[Toddzilla]

jb has been gone for almost 10 years

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Having yet another occasion to look back on this thread, I find myself reading it -- especially my own contributions -- sort of like a football team and coaching staff going over our own game film.

Oh, I can't believe he actually said that...you have to correct that... okay, that was good... all right, I think you got it right that time... NO WAY... okay, now try to talk him down...yes, yes, yes... WTF???....Hmm, maybe it's time to try a different approach... Wow, this guy is a brick... I give up... wait, no... No, I'M ALL IN NOW...

Anyway... thread just delivers, no matter what.

still me rn

[fortheglory]

People say to always split 8s but this is wrong. What will two 18s do for you against an 8, 9, or ten?

[digamma]

I think I'd phrase that as:

The mathematically correct play is to always split 8s, but psychologically I hate losing two hands.

[Kodos]

Losing one sucks too. Just ask Jaime Lannister.

[Suicane75]

I have a $500 bonus to clear at my casino. Thought about using the system to try and clear it. Just have to avoid losing 9 hands in a row. It seems simple.


I'm kidding. Or am I?


Yes, I am.


Maybe.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Losing one sucks too. Just ask Jaime Lannister.

[Logan]

jbmagic was a solid decade ahead of his time as a troll.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by digamma

I think I'd phrase that as:

The mathematically correct play is to always split 8s, but psychologically I hate losing two hands.

My last trip, I got 8s, split em. Got a 3 and a 2, so I ended up with 11 and 10 against a dealer trash card. Doubled down on both. Dealer ended up with 21, and I managed to lose 4 bets on one hand.

Maybe Blackjack just isn't my game.

[digamma]

Bet 4x more next hand.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by digamma

Bet 4x more next hand.

DAMMIT. It's so simple! I can't believe I forgot to do that!

[CrimsonFox]

I thought that said "Bojack Players" at first

[larrymcg421]

If you're unfamiliar with this thread, then maybe FOFC not the message board for you.

[digamma]

5 friends go to play roulette. Each play $20 per spin. Red Or Black. These are their results.

Great visualization of how the casino always wins long term. pic.twitter.com/CMlb5FhZyp

— Kevin Martin (@KevinRobMartin) July 30, 2018

[CraigSca]

$20 per spin?! Pfft. (see 15th post)

[digamma]

Yeah, I knew these guys were doing something wrong. Maybe roulette not their game.

[Arles]

I've always loved this thread, but I have a legit question. I haven't really looked at the numbers and am assuming I'm not counting - but I've always been fascinated with the 16 v 10 decision.

On first glance, the most common result would be a 16 vs a 20 - in which case only one card will get you the win (5). The dealer can't have an Ace (or he would have had blackjack). So, here's the total set of options. Since most people don't hit after 17, I'm not counting a situation where you get an Ace and then hit to get a 4.

1. 16 vs. 20: only a 4 or 5 helps, almost certain loser.
2. 16 vs. 19: 3, 4 or 5 helps, still long odds.
3. 16 vs. 18: 2-5 helps, slightly better chance.
4. 16 vs. 17: A-5 helps, certainly worth taking a card here.
5-9. 16 vs 12-16: dealer has a decent to high chance of busting.

Again, without looking at the actual data (which I think it close to 50-50), it always feels like staying on 16 vs a 10 is a solid play. Out of the 9 potential situations, 5 involve a better chance on staying. The most common (20) gives you a very slim chance of winning with a hit. So, if you hit, you are really banking on situations 17-19 and getting a small card - again long odds. Now, the dealer could get the same small card you need if he has a 12-16 - in which case stay would be worse even if he pulls a 14. Just curious on what you guys think?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Arles

Just curious on what you guys think?

I think that the ideal thing to do, if in that situation, is to trust the people who have actually run the numbers. They all advise you to hit, so you hit.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Arles

Just curious on what you guys think?

I think you are leaving out the house rule that dealer has to hit on 16 and stand on 17.


That changes the calcs.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I think that the ideal thing to do, if in that situation, is to trust the people who have actually run the numbers. They all advise you to hit, so you hit.

Yeah, but it's no that much of a difference. Staying will have you win 2.7% more, but also lose 3.1% more often. For $1 bet, you will lose .537 if you stand and .535 if you hit. So, it's a fractional better play to hit - depending on the hand. If you have a three card 16, the numbers actually say to stay.

One interesting strategy I read was to add up all the A-5 cards on the table (good) and 6-K (bad). Then, if the "good" cards make up more than 40% of the total - you stand. If it is under 40%, you hit. I don't think it makes that much of a difference, but it was an interesting idea since the difference is so razor thin.

What I usually do is hit if I am playing the push (casinos near me do the 10-1 push bet as a side) or stay if I'm not (depending on if I'm counting or not). But, I may try the good/bad ratio next time. Either way, it's a losing bet and I would surrender if it was offered, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

[digamma]

I mean, not to go back to the beginning of the thread, but these little edges kind of add up.

[QuikSand]

..any reason to bump this thread is a good reason, but...



of course there are entire YouTube channels dedicated to roulette "systems"

so I'm like 15 seconds into this one, and... uhhhh..what about 13 and 25? (I guess you just restart the video if one of those hits) ... and seems like 0/00 are uncovered, too... awesome system

[Butter]

63% of the time you're going to make $30
13% of the time you're going to make $5
24% of the time you're going to lose $170

Ouch

[AnalBumCover]

"When to walk away: After your three-hour session to earn that sweet comp room, or +$1000."

"We're trying to find a system that you can get a free room at Cosmo, or Wynn, or Aria. And I think this is the system."

They're even saying to play at a very busy table to get less spins and more time on the table.

[QuikSand]

SUPER IMPRESSIVE

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

SUPER IMPRESSIVE

Just to be clear, these systems are less about "winning" and more about earning comps. This one doesn't seem to be the best at either. The systems were you are playing a good amount of bets, and have 90% win rates are better than this one. This is about taking x amount of money, and being able to play it long enough and often enough to earn comps, and maybe winning some money as well as a bonus. I could totally get into that kind of gambling because I am pretty risk adverse.

[albionmoonlight]

I guess I'm the only person who goes to Vegas expecting to lose money.

Basic strategy blackjack and Pass Line craps.
A few random longshot bets on whatever sporting event is coming up in the next few months.
Pay for my hotel room
Pay for a few shows
Pay for a few nice dinners

I do always end up in the hole, however.

Maybe vacations just aren't my game.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Just to be clear, these systems are less about "winning" and more about earning comps. This one doesn't seem to be the best at either. The systems were you are playing a good amount of bets, and have 90% win rates are better than this one. This is about taking x amount of money, and being able to play it long enough and often enough to earn comps, and maybe winning some money as well as a bonus. I could totally get into that kind of gambling because I am pretty risk adverse.

So the idea here is to sit around, play like you're a money grab for the casino, bit you're actually losing just enough money that what the casino is going to offer you to stick around becomes +EV? What can they offer to make it +EV and make it 100% sure you'll get offered that free stay at the hotel and what not?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

So the idea here is to sit around, play like you're a money grab for the casino, bit you're actually losing just enough money that what the casino is going to offer you to stick around becomes +EV? What can they offer to make it +EV and make it 100% sure you'll get offered that free stay at the hotel and what not?

At the very beginning of this thread, Q said something about how the casinos somehow manage to build these palaces in the desert despite all of our wonderful systems designed to take their money.

The casinos (as I understand it) keep pretty good track of how much money people are keeping in play, and they aren't giving out comps that are to the player's advantage.

Maybe Vic knows more about comp economics if he's still in this thread.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

So the idea here is to sit around, play like you're a money grab for the casino, bit you're actually losing just enough money that what the casino is going to offer you to stick around becomes +EV? What can they offer to make it +EV and make it 100% sure you'll get offered that free stay at the hotel and what not?

At the very beginning of this thread, Q said something about how the casinos somehow manage to build these palaces in the desert despite all of our wonderful systems designed to take their money.

The casinos (as I understand it) keep pretty good track of how much money people are keeping in play, and they aren't giving out comps that are to the player's advantage.

Maybe Vic knows more about comp economics if he's still in this thread.

[GrantDawg]

Just reading what I am seeing on the comp system, it really seems to mostly be based on time played/money played. They incentivize you staying at their casino, knowing in the long term they are going to make more money off of you. In these videos that I have seen, the dealers are all current or past table workers, and they try to give you tips on getting those comps. In the long run, the casino will get there's. They bet on human nature, that gamblers are eventually going to " bet big" and lose.

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