NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Through various coincidences of timing, I had a lot of opportunity to listen to podcasts and otherwise consume draft content, specifically about the big 3 QBs.

Curious what content you are consuming? I usually listen to the ESPN First Draft podcast, with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. Although I primarily gave up on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast awhile back, I also will go out of my way to listen to the portions of his show when Greg Cosell is on each week discussing top draft candidates at each position. I've also been checking out Dane Brugler's writing on The Athletic.

I really love Cosell's breakdowns every year. Here he is on a recent appearance on the Rich Eisen show breaking down all of the quarterbacks, including a bit of a breakdown on Darnold. Cosell is pretty high on Wilson and lower on Lawrence than others, although still has Lawrence as the top QB.

Outside of the big five, he mentions Davis Mills as someone who could potentially find success in the right environment.

[albionmoonlight]

My two base NFL podcasts are the Ringer NFL show and the Athletic Football Show with Robert Mays.

Mays' show in particular tends to have really insightful guests.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That's a much better haul for Darnold than I would have expected.

I really don't think it's that big of a haul. I mean, I know on paper that three picks including a second rounder seems like a lot for a player that we have all deemed a bust.

Between the three picks, if I'm not mistaken, there's really around a 35% chance that the player turns into a starter.

There are enough QB's where it took a few years for them to get settled in. I mean, if this was a year ago and the trade was for Josh Allen, everyone would have been saying it was an overpay. If there is a chance that Darnold goes on to be an Alex Smith or Ryan Tannehill, then I think the trade is worth it.

Darnold is also still only 23 years old, just a year older than guys like Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, etc. Is what we have seen of Mac Jones in his 15(?) or so college starts really worth a potential 3rd overall pick but Darnold's not even worth a future 2nd and 3rd?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

I really don't think it's that big of a haul. I mean, I know on paper that three picks including a second rounder seems like a lot for a player that we have all deemed a bust.

Between the three picks, if I'm not mistaken, there's really around a 35% chance that the player turns into a starter.

There are enough QB's where it took a few years for them to get settled in. I mean, if this was a year ago and the trade was for Josh Allen, everyone would have been saying it was an overpay. If there is a chance that Darnold goes on to be an Alex Smith or Ryan Tannehill, then I think the trade is worth it.

Darnold is also still only 23 years old, just a year older than guys like Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, etc. Is what we have seen of Mac Jones in his 15(?) or so college starts really worth a potential 3rd overall pick but Darnold's not even worth a future 2nd and 3rd?

Yeah, I mean my head tells me Darnold is never going to stop with the bad turnovers and you just can't be an NFL quarterback if you can't do that, but my heart wants to believe.

In addition to all those points, he's never had a coaching staff that wasn't a complete trainwreck. He went from Clay Helton and "fuck it throw it somewhere downfield to all the superior WR talent" to Adam Gase "fuck it throw it somewhere to some of the worst offensive supporting cast ever seen on an NFL field in less than 2 seconds or you are toast"

If he's 2-14 with multiple game losing turnovers and a TD/INT ratio less than 2:1 after this year, yeah I guess it's not the coaching but I sure want to see what that looks like first.

[JPhillips]

I think it's a pretty big haul for a guy that would have been released at some point after the draft.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Really I think it's the 2nd rounder that makes it a "haul." Something about a 2nd round pick...the difference between a 2nd round pick and a 3rd round pick is like the difference between 9 and 21 - it's no bigger than 11-23, but it feels like a much bigger gap.

[Lathum]

Without looking at stats are we sure Darnold is an upgrade over Bridgewater?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Without looking at stats are we sure Darnold is an upgrade over Bridgewater?

There is a potential for a locker room issue here.

Players like Teddy a lot.

But players also get that its about winning. And if the Panthers had managed to snag Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson, then there'd be no problem benching Teddy for one of those guys.

But for Darnold?

You don't trade a second round pick for a guy because your owner wants to bench him. So there will be pressure from on high (spoken or unspoken) to declare Darnold the winner of the QB competition unless Teddy clearly beats him out.

So if, as I suspect, it ends up being close, the coaches will go with Darnold. And that may not sit well with the locker room if the feeling is that Teddy earned it.

It's a possible early test for a young coach who's used to dealing with a bunch of college kids and not opiniated professionals.

[QuikSand]

Teddy has to go, and Denver makes the most sense to me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Teddy has to go, and Denver makes the most sense to me.

I heard the offered him for Locke and the Broncos said no, but agree, I think Teddy is gone.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Without looking at stats are we sure Darnold is an upgrade over Bridgewater?

That doesn't hold up here as Darnold loses the comparison against any QB not playing in the NFC East.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Teddy has to go, and Denver makes the most sense to me.

Makes sense.

Which has an interesting effect on the draft if both Carolina and Denver now consider themselves out of the QB hunt for this year.

Even if the Falcons go QB (which I think they should), that's 4 of the big 5 QBs gone. There has been a sense that whoever was left would be gone by 8 or 9 b/c of Denver and Carolina.

But if neither of those now draft a QB, then you might actually have one of them fall into a range where New England or WFT manages to grab one without having to do much movement at all.

And if the Falcons decide to not go QB, then you might have two guys tumble a ways after the top 3 go 1-2-3.

[JPhillips]

I'm still sticking with my probably wrong prediction that Fields will be available for Pittsburgh.

[QuikSand]

ATL reportedly doing the smart thing and fielding offers for pick 1.4

TE Kyle Pitts getting buzzed into the top 6

Mac Jones still in the public conversation for pick 1.3 for some reason

CB Caleb Farley sliding rapidly due to back issues (wow)

[Honolulu_Blue]

I can't wait for the draft. I'm very interested to see how it plays out for the Lions. I can think of a few interesting scenarios:

1. If 4 QBs are drafted 1-4, then that leaves a combination of Sewell, Chase, Pitts, Smith and Waddle for picks 5-7.

It seems like the choice would be really among Pitts, Sewell, or Chase. Any of those picks could make sense.

If Sewell dropped, the Lions would actually have the foundation of a pretty good offensive line with Decker, Ragnow and Sewell. Jonah Jackson was a pretty good rookie at guard last year, so that could actually be a position group of strength, which isn't a bad thing.

The Lions have a huge need at WR. Tyrrell Jackson and Breshad Perriman aren't number one receivers. And it's pretty much them and Cephus, a 5th round pick last year. Chase would immediately be the Lions best WR. That being said, when you have a team as terrible as the Lions currently are, it's tough to try to build back up to relevance through wide receivers.

The same logic would hold for Pitts. He seems like an amazing talent and looks like more an offensive weapon then you're traditional tight end, meaning both he and Hockenson shouldn't have trouble being on the field at the same time. If the Lions drafted Pitts, it would be the third time the Lions drafted a TE in the Top 10 in only a handful of years. No one does that.

2. If 4 QBs are drafted 1-4, and one of those QBs is Mac Jones (presumably to the 49ers), that could leave either Fields or Lance available to the Lions at 7. I doubt Goff is the long term answer, so the Lions could draft the remaining QB or trade back and get more picks.

I love the idea of getting a QB of the future. Treading water with Goff doesn't excite me in the slightest. The Lions, also, have a terrible defense with very little skill and speed. So, trading back, getting a solid defender while gather more picks to help build this thing back up does make some sense as well.

I'm hopeful that Brad Holmes does the right thing here, mainly because it's his first year and I haven't yet lost faith in him. At a minimum, at least he is publicly keeping all of his options open - talking about QBs, going to pro days, not tipping his hand, etc. This a very different approach to Quinn who, last year, all but told everyone in the league they were staying at 3 and taking Jeff Okudah.

[albionmoonlight]

I agree the Lions are in a good position.

Either the QBs all go before 7, in which case they are in a position to get an elite non-QB.

Or one or two of the QBs fall, in which case they should be able to get good value from a team looking to jump ahead of Denver/Carolina.

Or, of course, they could just draft a QB, too. It was someone here years ago (Quik maybe?) who said that you don't let pocket lint like Jared Goff keep you from drafting a franchise QB if he falls in your lap.

[thesloppy]

Yeah, it's still hard to say I'm stoked that the Lions basically took a flier on a rookie head-coach that nobody else was interested in, immediately traded away the best QB they've ever had & then didn't even try to re-sign any of their starting WRs, but none of those things was the wrong move to make considering the circumstances that Quinn & Patricia left behind.

All the talk about Wilson & Watson eventually faded away & the Stafford deal seems to be the only blockbuster to have materialized into reality, which makes it look all the better in hindsight & while no Lions fans are in love with the idea of Goff, like you guys are saying he is viable enough that they could truly develop a rookie QB, if that's the way they want to go.

I also agree that as attractive as the top stud WRs are that seems like a tough fit for where this Lions team is at, comparatively. QB would potentially have room & time to develop, tackle would be part of a strong young unit, but a WR would immediately be the #1WR in this Goff offense & under much more pressure, for better or worse.

[albionmoonlight]

One or both of the top 2 tackles should be on the board at 1.7.

This might be the simple case of just standing pat and picking the good young player that fits a need.

After Patricia/Quinn, y'all might just need a couple of years of making the simple good moves to get the team back to respectable. Then you look around and decide where to go from there.

[GrantDawg]

I'm just going to leave this here. https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...-read-analysis

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[bronconick]

Since they reworked Goff's deal, he's probably going to be there at least through 2022. I'm guessing they won't trade up for a QB this month.

[Kodos]

New NFL television contract is sweeping, huge changes in store with DirecTV out

DirecTV is out under new NFL television contract

While it’s not in the official release, reports surfaced on Thursday that the ESPN+ streaming service will get “Sunday Ticket” for the duration of the 11-year contract, starting in 2023.

For those who are looking to cord-cut, this is no small thing. DirecTV has proven to be expensive for consumers who feel the need to have “Sunday Ticket” in order to see their out-of-market teams play on a weekly basis. DirecTV has held the rights to “Sunday Ticket” since its inception all the way back in 1994. This is indeed a game-changer.

Does anyone have more concrete info on where Sunday Ticket is going? From what I've seen, it won't be on DirecTV. This is the only article that seems to be definitively stating it is going to ESPN+.

[B & B]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I also agree that as attractive as the top stud WRs are that seems like a tough fit for where this Lions team is at, comparatively. QB would potentially have room & time to develop, tackle would be part of a strong young unit, but a WR would immediately be the #1WR in this Goff offense & under much more pressure, for better or worse.

that being said, I still think Dan goes BPA and would take Pitts and run 95% 2 TE formations with Hock. AND I WOULD LOVE IT.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Since they reworked Goff's deal, he's probably going to be there at least through 2022. I'm guessing they won't trade up for a QB this month.

I can't see them trading up for a QB, unless Holmes was utterly convinced that THE guy was there and they had to have him. But if, say, Lance or Fields happens to fall to 7...

I wouldn't be upset with Pitts at all, but based on current hype, I don't see him being available at 7.

[pantera]

Re: the Lions...speaking from the Patriots perspective, they could get a 2021 first (15th pick), a 2022 first and probably a 2nd from NE if there's a QB they really want in Detroit's draft position. The rumor here is that they like Fields.

It's quite possible one of Waddle or Smith will still be there at 15. And virtually every #2 prospect at every position except QB or OL.

It's going to be a particularly fascinating draft this year.

[rjolley]

Sunday Ticket on ESPN+ would be great for me.

[Ksyrup]

DirecTV has gifted me Sunday Ticket for the past 3 years, so if it's going to ESPN+ that's fine. If it results in an increase in ESPN+ cost, I won't be happy.

[Kodos]

It sounds like it’d be a bonus subscription of $300 or so.

[albionmoonlight]

I know that I am leaving money on the table, but a few years back, I got tired of the whole "Call DirecTV, threaten to cancel, get a Sunday Ticket discount in return" dance and just paid full freight.

If ESPN keeps it at ~$300, I can live with that.

I do like having the TiVo ability. I would hope that ESPN+ would let me TiVo games (or the equivalent).

My fear is that they would make it so that I could not fast-forward through commercials, which would be painful.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by B & B

that being said, I still think Dan goes BPA and would take Pitts and run 95% 2 TE formations with Hock. AND I WOULD LOVE IT.

Pitts + Hockenson on the field at the same time would be absurd. I want to see that now.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My two base NFL podcasts are the Ringer NFL show and the Athletic Football Show with Robert Mays.

Mays' show in particular tends to have really insightful guests.

Do you get two different versions of the show, dependant upon whether you have a subscription to The Athletic? I hate having to use The Athletic app to listen to the lengthier subscriber versions of the podcasts, but feel like I'm missing content if I don't.

[albionmoonlight]

I just get the Mays show through my normal iPhone default podcast app.

They never talk about how they have special content for subscribers (which I think that they would if they did in order to encourage subscriptions)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Do you get two different versions of the show, dependant upon whether you have a subscription to The Athletic? I hate having to use The Athletic app to listen to the lengthier subscriber versions of the podcasts, but feel like I'm missing content if I don't.

I can't speak to that specific podcast but for other podcasts it is the same content through the Athletic app as you get through other podcast apps. Through the app the podcast is commercial free.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I just get the Mays show through my normal iPhone default podcast app.

They never talk about how they have special content for subscribers (which I think that they would if they did in order to encourage subscriptions)

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I can't speak to that specific podcast but for other podcasts it is the same content through the Athletic app as you get through other podcast apps. Through the app the podcast is commercial free.

Thanks. I know there were some previous podcasts (NHL based - I'm talking about a year and a half ago) where if you had a subscription, you got about an extra ten minutes at the end. But it obviously only worked through The Athletic app and not through my regular podcasting app. It drove me away from podcasts on The Athletic. Glad to see that things have changed.

I'll have to give the Mays podcast a listen. Looking at the some of the guests, I see a lot of crossover with the Around the NFL podcast, which I highly, highly recommend, if you haven't checked it out.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Or, of course, they could just draft a QB, too. It was someone here years ago (Quik maybe?) who said that you don't let pocket lint like Jared Goff keep you from drafting a franchise QB if he falls in your lap.

(grins)

Sorry not sorry, Jimmy Claussen.

[Edward64]

CBS article on hypothesized NE trade up with Atlanta. Seems kinda rich to me but then the Patriots prob won't have picks 1-10 in 2022 and 2023.

I'd take it if NE offers it.

2021 NFL Mock Draft: Patriots trade up to No. 4, creating an unprecedented run on quarterbacks - CBSSports.com

Trade details: Patriots give up first-rounder (No. 15) and second-rounder (No. 46), plus 2022 first- and third-round picks and a 2023 first-rounder. Patriots have been aggressive all offseason so why stop now? Lance has the brains to match the arm, and Bill Belichick liked what he saw from how Josh McDaniels opened up the playbook last year for a more physically capable quarterback. The Pats can start Cam Newton and develop Lance at his own pace. A big jump for the most dominant team of the 21st century requires a high price to pay.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'd take it if NE offers it.

I think I'd hope there was a better deal. Cause I'm not sure how much value those future 1st would have (even if I believe Lance will be a GM-firing caliber bust if taken in the top half of the 1st).

Not like there's been reason for optimism about what ATL could do with middling/lower 1sts down the road.

[Edward64]

They could use those draft picks as part of a package trade. Atlanta's problem is defense - LB and CB I think.

No doubt Falcons have been underperforming. I really don't think they are as bad as what their record shows.

[JPhillips]

If, as we suspect, QBs go 1,2,3, why trade up to 4? If ATL wants a QB, they can't trade down, so if they are willing to trade that shows they aren't looking at QB to begin with. Then you have Bengals, Miami, Detroit, and Carolina. Detroit is a wild card, but the other three definitely aren't taking a QB. It's only at 9 that you have a strong possibility of a QB pick.

So why trade up to 4 when you can trade with Carolina at 8? You do have to worry about Detroit or someone else being willing to jump in at 4-7, but what really is the likelihood that someone is going to give up multiple firsts to move into the top five for the fourth or fifth best QB? How often has the fourth or fifth guy been a franchise QB?

[molson]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Not like there's been reason for optimism about what ATL could do with middling/lower 1sts down the road.

Same reason I'd love to see the Pats trade a bunch of those picks to move up.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by molson

Same reason I'd love to see the Pats trade a bunch of those picks to move up.

Last few years aren't the best, but from '03-'12 you had
13 - Ty Warren
21 - Vince Wilfork
32 - Logan Mankins
21 - Laurence Maroney
24 - Brandon Meriwether
10 - Jerod Mayo
27 - Devin McCourty
17 - Nate Solder
21 - Chandler Jones
27 - Donta Hightower

I'd rather keep the picks & see who falls to 10-12, then maybe jump up there.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If, as we suspect, QBs go 1,2,3, why trade up to 4? If ATL wants a QB, they can't trade down, so if they are willing to trade that shows they aren't looking at QB to begin with. Then you have Bengals, Miami, Detroit, and Carolina. Detroit is a wild card, but the other three definitely aren't taking a QB. It's only at 9 that you have a strong possibility of a QB pick.

Exactly, though it's not so much "why trade up" but "why give up more than the 49ers did to go to 3?" 3 1st's a 2nd & a 3rd for a guy who could very well be there at 10-12 would be idiotic. Detroit sure ain't selling anyone they want to pick a QB, they can say what they want, but if Carolina picks a QB at 8 after trading a 2nd/4th/6th for Sam Darnold Tepper should be forced to sell the team on the spot, so that leaves Denver if they're sold on Drew Lock not being the guy & teams like Washington or maybe Pittsburgh who could trade up & jump New England.

[GrantDawg]

Atlanta could pick a qb or trade down because the have Matt Ryan fir at least two more years.The Falcons could pick a QB now thinking (or hoping) they won't be this high in the future, and they can get a better qb that they can slow-roll into a starter in two years or so.
They can not pick one and get more draft picks because they don't have to have one now. Getting more picks now, and future picks to trade up and get one next year is a good ( if not better) plan.

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[GrantDawg]

Bold prediction: One or more of the top three qb's taken are going to be complete busts. One or more of qb's picked 4-7 are going to be solid starters, possible even developing into franchise players.

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[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Atlanta could pick a qb or trade down because the have Matt Ryan fir at least two more years. The Falcons could pick a QB now thinking (or hoping) they won't be this high in the future, and they can get a better qb that they can slow-roll into a starter in two years or so.
They can not pick one and get more draft picks because they don't have to have one now. Getting more picks now, and future picks to trade up and get one next year is a good ( if not better) plan.

Plus you have the dissension between coach & GM ("Who are now on the same page") - the Falcons should be looking to trade down, but the sheer fact that they publicly are indicates they really don't want to draft a QB at 4 & it would be crazy to give up the amount CBS Sports listed for your choice between the 4th & 5th QB's (especially when there is still uncertainty about which QB's will be picked top 3 even if there is a strong Wilson/Jones assumption for 2/3 right now.)

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Bold prediction: One or more of the top three qb's taken are going to be complete busts. One or more of qb's picked 4-7 are going to be solid starters, possible even developing into franchise players.

The Jets are picking one of the QB's, of course he'll be a bust.

[JPhillips]

I think Carolina is in a good position to have suitors for a QB trying to move ahead of Denver. They could end up with Darnold and a better package of picks than what they gave up.

[rjolley]

The Bears shouldn't try to move up into the top 10 to pick one of the top 5 QBs. It's too costly. I would like to see them trade back and pick one of the next tier QBs to groom. They have too many holes to fill. Trading picks to move up doesn't make sense with what they need to do.

[GrantDawg]

Rumours now that the Bronco's may be looking to trade up to four to pick either Lance or Fields. I think the Falcons are going to get something good of this pick regardless. I think all the possibilities look intriguing.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by rjolley

The Bears shouldn't try to move up into the top 10 to pick one of the top 5 QBs. It's too costly. I would like to see them trade back and pick one of the next tier QBs to groom. They have too many holes to fill. Trading picks to move up doesn't make sense with what they need to do.

This is the Bears you're talking about. Their approach to football has always been one that doesn't make sense, at the GM, coach, and player levels. Trestman > Arians? Trubisky > Watson/Mahomes? Pace > Angelo/Emery? (Really kind of interchangeably bad there.) The list of football missteps is lengthy, but as long as the McCaskey's own the team false hope and mediocrity are here to stay.

So yeah...Pace will move up to take another franchise QB destined to be a career backup.

[albionmoonlight]

Alex Smith retires. Didn't live up to the #1 overall pick. But not a bad career by any stretch.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Alex Smith retires. Didn't live up to the #1 overall pick. But not a bad career by any stretch.

Rather rare exception to the "QB flames out and there's no recovery after that" rule, in my book.