Werewolf LXXXII - Cops and Robbers (Day 3 Deadline 4 PM EST Thursday)

[Narcizo]

Sorry Jackal, I've been working and thinking things through otherwise I'd have tried to have a conversation about things. Anyway,

At the time I got the sense that there was some attempt to corral a Render-Clap showdown around #100. Maybe that's partly due to my own reluctance to have voted PB when Render was 2 ahead of clap, but the talk of ties and whatnot at the time felt like it was pushing an agenda of vote Render or clap. Barkeep talking of whether he should vote clap or Render, as if there was no other possibility, certainly strengthened that feeling. This fact, along with clap moving his vote to Purdue, means that I have a lot of trust for clap. I also doubt he's the sort of wolf player who would throw a team-member under the bus at that stage.

I tend to agree with Alan and Jackal about neither saldana nor path getting a free pass because of their late votes. But I think saldana is the more suspicious looking one in this case. When path makes it 6-5 to Purdue what choice does sal have really? He either leaves his vote on Render and PB is almost certainly going to be doomed anyway, or he can try and buy some trust by moving to Purdue. (this has been pointed out, of course). I think pretty much any wolf in the circumstances would do the same, so trying to argue that it is in some way inherently a villager move just doesn't cut it, and to be honest I'm surprised that saldana even tried flying that kite. The best you can say about it is that it is a neutral move.

Originally Posted by saldana

vote render
no reason really...i abhor ties, especially when we know the tie breaking mechanic like we do here.

Originally Posted by saldana

well, I am not going to take a chance at random, so assuming that render will show up and vote PB...

ie doesn't want a tie. Although as he admitted in his next post his logic was faulty.

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Wow, five of the last six votes were for me (excluding my vote). Nice push coming from somewhere and good use of questions regarding a tie to scare people out of moving their vote. I'll leave it at that...

You can read PB's statement two ways here;
1) I'm being targeted by wolves, move your votes off of me
2) I'm toast and people are going to be looking at what I say in the near future. Hopefully trying to implicate someone now will make that person look less suspicious when I show up as a wolf.

If you buy Alan's arguments as to why Render was targeted (it seems fairly logical to me) and given that saldana's initial vote puts him among the highly suspect group I'm much happier voting for him rather than path.

Vote Saldana

[The Jackal]

I definitely agree that there was far too much talk about ties. I partly blame Heinz for that, because he made his stance clear (which isnt a bad thing at all), but I do think it may have given wolves a free pass to place votes, so it is an important thing to examine.

[The Jackal]

And the above is why in every game I ever run I'll never say what's going to happen with a tie beforehand.

[Narcizo]

I've got to say I tend to side with Lathum with regards to the whole "second vote" business. Someone has to cast the second vote and I don't buy it as being some far-reaching attempt to save PB when he only has one (unexplained) vote. That just seems like a ridiculous stretch.

[The Jackal]

Not that Heinz made it clear what with his utter chaos and gravitational forces - but it definitely gave the wolves a doorway to free votes, and if they used it we're going to nail them. We don't have to go that route, but it seems like it's the most logical at this point. I trust that the wolves are smart, so we need to be smarter.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I've got to say I tend to side with Lathum with regards to the whole "second vote" business. Someone has to cast the second vote and I don't buy it as being some far-reaching attempt to save PB when he only has one (unexplained) vote. That just seems like a ridiculous stretch.

This is one of those first day vote things. There are three sets of people that are going to be targeted:

1 - the people that place the first vote on someone
2 - the people that place a second vote, whether it seems to deflect or add-on
3 - the people that either switch late or vote late

When there's little to go on, people grasp at straws. And a lot of times those straws lead to wolves.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I definitely agree that there was far too much talk about ties. I partly blame Heinz for that, because he made his stance clear (which isnt a bad thing at all), but I do think it may have given wolves a free pass to place votes, so it is an important thing to examine.

I got the feeling that the threat of a tie was being used to keep the field narrow. Of course, as I said, my own paranoias probably played into that, as did SnDvls mistaken vote for Render when he meant to vote clap.

[The Jackal]

People are always looking for a way to keep the field narrow on day 1. If the votes get too spread out, then the people that spread the votes out late are targeted. Consolidation works for both factions - it helps the villagers because they get to learn a role even if it's a good person and it helps the wolves because they will know who is being targeted and will figure out the best way to deal with it.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

This is one of those first day vote things. There are three sets of people that are going to be targeted:

1 - the people that place the first vote on someone
2 - the people that place a second vote, whether it seems to deflect or add-on
3 - the people that either switch late or vote late

When there's little to go on, people grasp at straws. And a lot of times those straws lead to wolves.

Lucky I got the third vote in then, as that leaves me as just about the only person excluded from those scenarios.

I don't get it from that viewpoint either though. Cronin accepts that Alan's logic about Render's death has merit, so he doesn't have to clutch straws.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

People are always looking for a way to keep the field narrow on day 1. If the votes get too spread out, then the people that spread the votes out late are targeted. Consolidation works for both factions - it helps the villagers because they get to learn a role even if it's a good person and it helps the wolves because they will know who is being targeted and will figure out the best way to deal with it.

Yeah, but narrowing it down to a two-horse race at that stage seems a bit dodgy. This is a reason why Barkeep is currently getting some distrust from me at the moment. I'd certainly be happier voting Barkeep based on that rather than Lathum because he dropped a second vote on someone.

[The Jackal]

And yet cronin was still one of the first to place a vote, which always has me wary. It doesn't mandate that that person is a wolf, but it makes me keep an eye on them. And I didn't realize we were talking about cronin clutching at straws, thought we were aiming towards path on that one.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Yeah, but narrowing it down to a two-horse race at that stage seems a bit dodgy. This is a reason why Barkeep is currently getting some distrust from me at the moment. I'd certainly be happier voting Barkeep based on that rather than Lathum because he dropped a second vote on someone.

I'm with you there, I'd vote BK over Lathum. But I have no issues with my EF vote. He could be a villager, but I don't see enough of a voting pattern to change at this point and it could force a fake reveal. Obviously I hope he's not the seer, but fake seer reveals are always nice.

[The Jackal]

And this is just one person talking, the majority is going to go where the majority wants to go.

[Narcizo]

The only thing is that I don't actually see anything concrete against EF (or have I missed something)? Just because he might be a wolf who got stuck with an early vote on another wolf doesn't mean he is. At best it should leave him nuetral, which is in a better state than 3-4 other potential candidates.

[The Jackal]

Yeah, I'm not suggesting a run on EF at all Narc. I'm just saying from past experience, a lot of times on day 1 a wolf will place an early vote on another wolf to try to garner trust for later in the game, and when it backfires, it backfires hard. EF could easily be a villager - but I've had nothing given to me that makes me want to change my vote at this point. Hope that makes sense.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And yet cronin was still one of the first to place a vote, which always has me wary. It doesn't mandate that that person is a wolf, but it makes me keep an eye on them. And I didn't realize we were talking about cronin clutching at straws, thought we were aiming towards path on that one.

When you were talking about grasping straws I presumed you meant people looking for someone to vote for on day two based on limited information. I think there's actually quite a lot more information out there than usual on day two. Of course a lot of it can be misunderstood but still.

Anyway, I have the joys of a monthly meeting awaiting me, so see you Jackal.

[The Jackal]

Thanks for the conversation Narc, we'll continue this tomorrow.

[The Jackal]

And as far as grasping at straws I was talking about day one votes, not anything that people have said on day two (including cronin voting for me or anything anyone else has done). It was all based on day one activity.

[The Jackal]

Good luck waking me up before the deadline. Someone send me a text or something. :P

[Narcizo]

So there seems to be three theories about why Render was killed. I think we all agree that it was a surprising choice as Render was a probable candidate for a lynch today based, if nothing else, on his missed vote yesterday.

1) Alan's theory that it was a move to clear path or saldana from scrutiny.

2) Lathum's theory that it was a play designed to implicate someone (specifically him, but this could be broadened to cover most Render voters). My problem with this is that if the kill was designed to cast suspicions on someone then it implies that no-one in the group of cronin, Lathum, Barkeep and saldana is a wolf. (I guess you could argue that, if saldana were a wolf, he might hope not to be counted in among the Render-voters because of his late switch). If one of those is a wolf then they wouldn't be trying to implicate a group they are part of. My problem is that I suspect there probably is a wolf somewhere in that group so I can't really buy this theory.

3) Jackal's theory that it was just an easy kill for the wolves who needed to make sure of a night kill after losing one of their numbers so early. I'm probably leaning this way at the moment (despite my vote for saldana). I mentioned already that the self-protection ability probably means that the wolves might feel compelled to target people who they wouldn't necessarily want to.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It's almost as if they didn't want to assist in eliminating people from vote analysis.

Actually there was this theory as well, which actually has some merit to it. If you kill someone who has voted then you're giving some (albeit minor) help in vote analysis. If you kill someone who hasn't voted then, well, you're not. I still think you'd, all things being equal, that you'd want to keep Render around to see if a movement develops on him for not voting.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So there seems to be three theories about why Render was killed. I think we all agree that it was a surprising choice as Render was a probable candidate for a lynch today based, if nothing else, on his missed vote yesterday.

1) Alan's theory that it was a move to clear path or saldana from scrutiny.

2) Lathum's theory that it was a play designed to implicate someone (specifically him, but this could be broadened to cover most Render voters). My problem with this is that if the kill was designed to cast suspicions on someone then it implies that no-one in the group of cronin, Lathum, Barkeep and saldana is a wolf. (I guess you could argue that, if saldana were a wolf, he might hope not to be counted in among the Render-voters because of his late switch). If one of those is a wolf then they wouldn't be trying to implicate a group they are part of. My problem is that I suspect there probably is a wolf somewhere in that group so I can't really buy this theory.

3) Jackal's theory that it was just an easy kill for the wolves who needed to make sure of a night kill after losing one of their numbers so early. I'm probably leaning this way at the moment (despite my vote for saldana). I mentioned already that the self-protection ability probably means that the wolves might feel compelled to target people who they wouldn't necessarily want to.

To be fair, I had mentioned #3 as part of my theory that you listed in #1. My theory was actually three different theories that I went through, but in the end I don't see the wolves looking every night to try to figure out which one person might not put in a night order. That likely is not going to last very long, and I have to assume there is some other game balance that the wolves have that can get around everyone being able to protect themselves anyways. So I discounted #3 already in my head at least.

As for #2... how does Render's death set up Lathum? I didn't even at any point correlate Render dying = Lathum might be bad and just don't understand it at all. Because he voted for Render? I don't buy that for a second. I know I have tossed out alot of thought about perhaps path or saldana being bad from the Render kill as being the only reasonable explanation that I could find, but if you don't accept that at all then you have no other real choice but to think old school about this and say if PB's fellow wolves didn't sacrifice him, then they tried to save him.. meaning they had to have voted for Render. That would not then matter if they night killed Render or not...

The fact that Lathum seemed to float that theory feels more forced than anything bearing any simblance of truth to me. I always wonder why someone goes on the defensive like that when no one else had even mentioned it. As far as I can tell, the only person who suggested Render's death implicated Lathum was Lathum himself.

As far as getting back to Path v Saldana, maybe you're right Narciso.. I have tried lately to temper my all gut, no brain play with some level of balance and likewise have tried to not always assume Saldana is bad every game.. which is why I was looking at Path today. Maybe Saldana is the better choice there, and I'm trying too hard to not go after him first because of past history.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Actually there was this theory as well, which actually has some merit to it. If you kill someone who has voted then you're giving some (albeit minor) help in vote analysis. If you kill someone who hasn't voted then, well, you're not. I still think you'd, all things being equal, that you'd want to keep Render around to see if a movement develops on him for not voting.

The reason I don't give this theory much credence is that you have several players who's votes don't really play a huge part in the factoring of vote analysis that wern't a part of the Render vs PB vote. You have 3 people who voted for Clap, and you have illinifan who voted for Cronin, all of whom could have been night killed and not help alot with the vote analysis.

Unless you want to take the arguement that Claphamsa was a wolf too, but then the people who pretty much saved Claphamsa were the people who voted for PB, so I am guessing that Claphamsa is good as well. The only explanation I can think of is that there was some reason for Render dying.. and the more I think about it, it was either to remove the suggestions that I had made the day before, or it was so they could float a different theory out there, similar to what Lathum has been doing.

[claphamsa]

wow jackyl! thats a lot of posts

[Barkeep49]

I have to say that I think the value of a wolf voting wolf on Day 1, at this point in FOFC WW, is zero, or close to zero. Look at all the suspicion being thrown on the voters of PB. I think we're at a point where keeping it simple, i.e. not voting off the guy on your team, is the best play. Whether the wolves themselves have realized this or not, I do not know. I do know we've had simply too much wolf D1 success as of late, suggesting some suboptimal wolf play, and this rise of suspicion among PB's voters. So for now I'm putting aside D1. I think it might be a useful data point later on, when we have some more basis, but for now is relatively useless.

Far less useless has been the discussion. I think there is some real value there. Which makes Lathums moves even more puzzling to me. I'm not a real fan of the vote with no explanation. And I agree no one was suggesting him linked to Render's death, except him. These are all questionable points to me and has me leaning in his direction.

[Narcizo]

Oh well, it's my little girl's birthday today so I'm off until after deadline. Good luck (except to the wolfies) and have fun everyone.

[PackerFanatic]

I have a lot of meetings this morning, and just in case I don't make it back before deadline.

VOTE SALDANA

His vote switch late seemed like a longshot attempt to clear himself, and I like the analysis Narcizo had on him.

[EagleFan]

People are analyzing my vote WAY too much. Anyone who has played in a game with me and paid attention will know that I ALWAYS vote for PB on day one when he is in the game (except the political game as I was going the direction that our party was voting). Why do I do it? I believe it actually started after he duked to me in my first game as a wolf so it was one of those for the hell of it "revenge" votes. Then it just kind of kept up a a tradition and it made things much easier on day one (I hate when he is not in the game as I actually have to venture a guess ). It really solidified when I noticed that I have been almost always on the opposite team as him (in every game where I was a villager he was a wolf and only once when I was a wolf, which was a log run for a while there, was he a wolf).

This is major deja vu as it seems like I have to explain this every game after day one. Which really makes me wonder about those trying to make this out to be more than it actually is because they should have seen me explain this several times by now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have to say that I think the value of a wolf voting wolf on Day 1, at this point in FOFC WW, is zero, or close to zero. Look at all the suspicion being thrown on the voters of PB. I think we're at a point where keeping it simple, i.e. not voting off the guy on your team, is the best play. Whether the wolves themselves have realized this or not, I do not know. I do know we've had simply too much wolf D1 success as of late, suggesting some suboptimal wolf play, and this rise of suspicion among PB's voters. So for now I'm putting aside D1. I think it might be a useful data point later on, when we have some more basis, but for now is relatively useless.

Far less useless has been the discussion. I think there is some real value there. Which makes Lathums moves even more puzzling to me. I'm not a real fan of the vote with no explanation. And I agree no one was suggesting him linked to Render's death, except him. These are all questionable points to me and has me leaning in his direction.

I gave an explination for my EF vote I just did it a few posts earlier. When I voted I was in a hurry and didn't have time to summarize.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

It also leads me to think they were trying to frame someone for the death too...ha ha you stupid robbers you just killed a tin can and kept our customer to robber ratio the same

Originally Posted by Alan T

The fact that Lathum seemed to float that theory feels more forced than anything bearing any simblance of truth to me. I always wonder why someone goes on the defensive like that when no one else had even mentioned it. As far as I can tell, the only person who suggested Render's death implicated Lathum was Lathum himself.

As you can ssee Alan you are incorrect.

Sndvls suggested Renders killing may be a set up before I mentioned anything, it was after that when I said I think it was me who was being set up. I also said it may just be me being paranoid.

[EagleFan]

As of 280 (think I got them all so far)

Lathum - 1 - st cronin (226)
EagleFan - 2 - The Jackal (221), Lathum (238)
saldana - 2 - Narcizo (251), PackerFanatic (277)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Right now I am leaning towards EF, it is real easy for a wolf to cast an early vote on another wolf then be forced to leave it there or out themself.

I'm really at the point where, as I've mentioned before, I think this bit of Conventional Wisdom isn't all that wise. I understand it though and am happy to be proven wrong, though frankly this wouldn't have required much of a summary.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

As you can ssee Alan you are incorrect.

Sndvls suggested Renders killing may be a set up before I mentioned anything, it was after that when I said I think it was me who was being set up. I also said it may just be me being paranoid.

Why should Render's death have pushed us to look closer at you than at St.Cronin or Barkeep in this case? I still don't understand that leap that you took in the logic there, so am interested in you explaining it to me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm really at the point where, as I've mentioned before, I think this bit of Conventional Wisdom isn't all that wise. I understand it though and am happy to be proven wrong, about not having a reason though frankly this wouldn't have required much of a summary.

Added bold part to clarify point.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Why should Render's death have pushed us to look closer at you than at St.Cronin or Barkeep in this case? I still don't understand that leap that you took in the logic there, so am interested in you explaining it to me.

I am too. I feel like this is Lathum assuming that his previous run ins with RendeR will be held against him, but it still seems like a bit of a false paranoid play. The question is paranoid in what way.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I am too. I feel like this is Lathum assuming that his previous run ins with RendeR will be held against him, but it still seems like a bit of a false paranoid play. The question is paranoid in what way.

Maybe I am just having problems keeping track of who has had run ins with whom. I didn't even know there was any history between Render and Lathum, and the only thing I saw from day 1 was that at some point Render had duked Lathum, so Lathum returned the favor with a vote.. which seems like a very normal reason for someone's day 1 vote. I'm having problems jumping from that cliff to the other cliff that is being presented now. There feels like a huge chasm that I don't understand in between the two.

[EagleFan]

Looking over his vote on day one I think that saldana has earned this vote. At the time of his vote PB was leading in the votes and his logic for switching to PB was the RendeR would probably show up and vote for PB anyway. I really would rather vote for The Jackal or Lathum just based on their faulty logic at voting for me. The seer should scan one of them tonight, or scan me if you believe what they are trying to say so that you can clear me.

[EagleFan]

lol, I forgot to do this in that last post:

vote saldana

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Why should Render's death have pushed us to look closer at you than at St.Cronin or Barkeep in this case? I still don't understand that leap that you took in the logic there, so am interested in you explaining it to me.

you said no one floated the theory, I showed where you were wrong.

As for me thinking its me that is just how my mind works. Like BK mentioned Render and I have recent history, so in my mind, it isn't a stretch that they could target him then come back and claim I look bad because not only did I vote for him day 1, but he was also night killed.

Not sure if I can explain it any better, if I am wrong it certainly wont be the first time.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

you said no one floated the theory, I showed where you were wrong.

As for me thinking its me that is just how my mind works. Like BK mentioned Render and I have recent history, so in my mind, it isn't a stretch that they could target him then come back and claim I look bad because not only did I vote for him day 1, but he was also night killed.

Not sure if I can explain it any better, if I am wrong it certainly wont be the first time.

Now you are twisting my words, or trying to put words into my mouth which isn't necessarily the way to try to win me over. I'm actually trying to be very open minded about this, but you are acting more defensive than trying to explain things. I have gone from being pretty sure I would vote Path, to leaning towards voting Saldana to now considering voting for you.

I still have yet to see anyone who said Render's death might have either suggested you were a wolf, or might have been to frame you up as one. Despite what you quoted from Sndvls, he didn't say anything about you in his quote.. So I don't think you have proved me wrong at all, instead you've started word games instead of just trying to explain things out which always rings odd to me.

[Barkeep49]

After thinking it over, I think Lathum would be exactly the sort of wolf to kill someone who he felt was unprotected and who he has a history with. It's the best rationale so far for why to kill RendeR. Barring other thoughts of analysis my vote looks head towards Lathum. In fact I'm going to place it there now just to make sure I get one in.

Vote Lathum

[illinifan999]

vote Lathum

I agree with Alan that his coming out on the defensive before there was even a mark on him is a bit suspicious.

[EagleFan]

As of 291 (think I got them all so far)

Lathum - 2 - st cronin (226), Bareep49 (291)
EagleFan - 2 - The Jackal (221), Lathum (238)
saldana - 3 - Narcizo (251), PackerFanatic (277), EagleFan (288)

[EagleFan]

doh:

As of 293 (think I got them all so far)

Lathum - 3 - st cronin (226), Bareep49 (291), Illinifan999 (292)
EagleFan - 2 - The Jackal (221), Lathum (238)
saldana - 3 - Narcizo (251), PackerFanatic (277), EagleFan (288)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

After thinking it over, I think Lathum would be exactly the sort of wolf to kill someone who he felt was unprotected and who he has a history with. It's the best rationale so far for why to kill RendeR. Barring other thoughts of analysis my vote looks head towards Lathum. In fact I'm going to place it there now just to make sure I get one in.

Vote Lathum

Are you suggesting that this would be a case of Lathum being a wolf, having a history with Render, making the kill on Render and assuming people would make that connection, thus tried to beat people to the punch by making that suggestion to try to discredit it? The only flaw in his plan is that no one ever made that leap that he expected and had planned for?

[jeheinz72]

Vote Count as I have it

Lathum 3: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292)
Saldana 3: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288)
EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)

[ntndeacon]

There has been some interesting analysis from everyone today. I tend to lean on Narcizo's at the moment though.

Vote saldana

[EagleFan]

I have to run out to get my daughter on the bus and pick my wife up from her tests. I will try to be back before the deadline if possible.

[claphamsa]

vote saldana

ive been super busy today... Im not sure I buy any of these arguemnts, but the one Vs. EF I think is the weakest....

Wish I could reread, I will try before deadline...

[jeheinz72]

Vote Count as I have it

Saldana 5: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299)

Lathum 3: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292)

EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)