WW LXXXVI - The Charmed Ones (Game Over - Innocents Win)

[EagleFan]

As of post 250:

Chief Rum 5 - Barkeep49 (214), jeheinz72 (240), hoopsguy (244), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)
Barkeep49 4 - Chief Rum (210), Danny (213), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Why does everyone keep saying that CR revealed before deadline? He threatened to reveal right before deadline, but then didn't actually do until almost 3 hours later (post #192), after all was said and done. Sure, I still don't know why he felt it important to reveal so early in the game, but that is his play and I believe him.

Is he really going to "Don't make me reveal..." and then reveal as a villager? I say no, he's not. And why even threaten to reveal? He was, at that moment, in NO danger. All he needed to do was cast his vote.

[Lathum]

I'm out for a while, I would be curious to discuss the concept of a tie at further length.

[Chubby]

I'm not a fan of a tie.

Heading back out for more xmas shopping but what I want to know from the people is if they are voting for CR then why was there no kill last night?

I'm kind of closer to not knowing what is going on vs this morning (I thought this morning it was a no brainer but now not sure at all) but I'm very curious about the votes on CR before I move (if I do)

[The Jackal]

vote BK

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Why does everyone keep saying that CR revealed before deadline? He threatened to reveal right before deadline, but then didn't actually do until almost 3 hours later (post #192), after all was said and done. Sure, I still don't know why he felt it important to reveal so early in the game, but that is his play and I believe him.

Basically saying he can and will reveal is as good as a reveal at that moment in time.

It's like flashing a big sign that says "Don't vote for me, don't switch your vote to me last minute but oh, I'm not going to tell you actually WHY until later"

He basically marked himself as a huge night target with what realistically if he was a villager, there wasn't much reason to do.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I'm not a fan of a tie.

Heading back out for more xmas shopping but what I want to know from the people is if they are voting for CR then why was there no kill last night?

I'm kind of closer to not knowing what is going on vs this morning (I thought this morning it was a no brainer but now not sure at all) but I'm very curious about the votes on CR before I move (if I do)

My theory on that is that CR's story is true, he's just swapped the players in it. I'd surmise that CR attacked BK, who is Leo, and was seen (and was told he was seen). Since his reveal was half-done he just finished it off since he knew he'd be under duress anyhow and doing so will give him the 1st-revealer benefit of the doubt that we've already seen some people give him.

Granted, that's pure theory and I have *zero* fact to base it on, but it's a completely plausible play.

[EagleFan]

As of post 256:

Chief Rum 5 - Barkeep49 (214), jeheinz72 (240), hoopsguy (244), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)
Barkeep49 5 - Chief Rum (210), Danny (213), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225), The Jackal (255)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm out for a while, I would be curious to discuss the concept of a tie at further length.

I don't think I'm a fan of a tie, at least not with my internal thoughts on Pro's and Con's. I mean let's say we effectively check here. What's to stop the wolves from just going off the map for the next night kill? Then we're right back where we started for tomorrow's vote with the issue unresolved and now we're down another villager. What's worse is if they do that, I'd bet they have a pretty whittled list of possibilities of who might hold our other roled villager spots.

I think we have to break this egg, even if we're wrong, we've got a clear lynch for tomorrow and I think that is something we have to maintain.

I'd give my ever famous "I'm not going to allow a tie" line, but while I'm working late today, I still won't be around at deadline.

[RendeR]

I distinctly dislike Jackal's voting us into a tie. Depending on the result of the lynch (assuming we do get a lynch) it pus jackal up high on my list of suspects.

My vote really isn't FOR Rummy, its not against him either. At this point we have two people with identical stories. One of them is obviously lying. We lynch one, we find out who that is.

I voted for Chief because I already had voted for chief yesterday. might as well see it through.


Chief turns up bad: My vote then falls on jackal tomorrow.

Chief turns out good, we all vote BK tomorrow.

Seems simple enough at this point.

[Danny]

Unvote Barkeep
Vote ChiefRum

I will not let us have a tie, if we do, the wolves will kill a different villager and then we are back where we were at down 1 more villager. I still think objectively it is more likely Chief is telling the truth, but a tie is the worst result we could have.

[Danny]

Another reason voting Chief off first may make sense. If he is bad, it tells us a lot about day 1 and we have a lot to go on for the following day. If bk is bad and we lynch him, it tells us nothing from day 1.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, feel free to change the vote back if it is for tie-breaking purposes.

I just put the vote on Rum to see what kind of movement might emerge behind it. I'm going to be voting for Barkeep tonight.

[hoopsguy]

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE BARKEEP

[jeheinz72]

Hoops, if you're around, what are you seeing that maybe I"m missing

[hoopsguy]

1.) The amount of complexity involved in Chief Rum making up the story.

2.) The fact that he revealed that Chief revealed that he cannot guard himself tonight, thus taking away his out (if he was a bluffing wolf) for being alive on D3.

3.) My feeling that BK's indicated "reveal" was nothing of the sort, but only best effort to find something that could be used later.

4.) The fact that BK has not made an effort to dispute details of Chief's account if he in fact feels that his role had been assumed by a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Finally, we are going to learn about the D1 vote by no later than the end of Day 3, barring any really strange stuff going on with roles. Because Chief is going to be dead one way or another. Right????

[jeheinz72]

I'm going to try and re-read again, sans the likely blinders, and see if it's worth it to me to break the tie.

[Danny]

I agree that is makes more sense that Chief is telling the truth and since there won't be a tie, I will switch back.

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote Barkeep

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Finally, we are going to learn about the D1 vote by no later than the end of Day 3, barring any really strange stuff going on with roles. Because Chief is going to be dead one way or another. Right????

You're right, my train of thought there was not very good.

[Danny]

Chief Rum 4 - Barkeep49 (214), jeheinz72 (240), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)
Barkeep49 6 - Chief Rum (210), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225), The Jackal (255) Hoopsguy (264) Danny (269)

At this point if any villager a late switch off BK to vote CR you will pretty much be linking yourself to CR in the case he is bad. If you are a villager, you shouldn't be doing this unless multiple switches are going to happen.

[jeheinz72]

Re-reading it's tough. This all would be made so much easier if CR didn't needlessly reveal at deadline.

I'll set this in stone here though, I think I've got a better read on things this time.

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote Barkeep49

[EagleFan]

As of post 272:

Barkeep49 7 - Chief Rum (210), Danny (269), PackerFanatic (219), Chubby (225), The Jackal (255). hoopsguy (264). jeheinz72 (272)
Chief Rum 3 - Barkeep49 (214), Lathum (245), RendeR (246)

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I distinctly dislike Jackal's voting us into a tie. Depending on the result of the lynch (assuming we do get a lynch) it pus jackal up high on my list of suspects.

My vote really isn't FOR Rummy, its not against him either. At this point we have two people with identical stories. One of them is obviously lying. We lynch one, we find out who that is.

I voted for Chief because I already had voted for chief yesterday. might as well see it through.


Chief turns up bad: My vote then falls on jackal tomorrow.

Chief turns out good, we all vote BK tomorrow.

Seems simple enough at this point.

I actually like this train of thought... what about the converse?

BK turns out good: vote Chief
BK turns out bad: ???

[jeheinz72]

I'm outta here gents...

[EagleFan]

deadline

[hoopsguy]

Tick tock.

[EagleFan]

After yet another sressful day accusation are running wild. Chief Rum speaks up first. "I was attacked. I think I know who it was. It was Barkeep, he attacked me last night. I survived because I am a white lighter, a guardian angel."

"Lies!" claims Barkeep. "He attacked me last night. I am Leo."

The debate began. Who is telling the truth? Who is lying? One must go. We have a 50/50 shot at getting an attacker. It went back and forth. Who dies first? If we are right we may have eliminated the evil which holds us here. We may be able to get back to our lives.

Finally the crowd decides upon Barkeep. If he is not evil we will go after Chief Rum. The crowd begins to form and track down Barkeep. As they near him he begins to chant. A swirl of smoke begins to fill the room. A spirit arises next to him and takes form. That spirit raises a croww bow and without warning fires a shot.

Chief Rum is hit in the chest and drops to the floor.

The spirit quickly fades. Barkeep laughs "Fools, you will not survive! Everyone will die!!!"

The crowd now forms into a mob an fear is replaced with fury. They swarm toward Barkeep. In a flash he is gone. Where? You turn around as he unleashes a bolt of fire from his hand. It soars past the crowd, nearly striking several of you and crashes into the waitress and she is instantly vaporized.

Th crowd charges again. Again Barkeep vanishes. He pops up at the bar behind everyone again.

"Enough!!!" A loud crash is heard and he drops to the ground. The bouncer was behind him as he materialized and taking a Hank Aaron swing with his baseball bat took Barkeep off his feet.

Before anyone can react the bouncer plunges the knife which had earlier killed the bartender through the chest of Barkeep. The crowd rushed towards him only to witness Barkeep turn to ash. You have killed him. Is the evil gone?

You try to leave the club but cannot. Your nightmare continues but you have eliminated one of the deadliest beasts you will ever encounter. The Source is dead.

You remember Chief Rum and rush to his side. It is too late. He is dead. Upon searching his body you find dog tags from WW2 with a name on it... Leo. He was a white lighter, a guardian angel.

[EagleFan]

Night 2 begins, deadline 11 PM EST.

[Chubby]

well I'm glad my guy reaction was right. Nice to get the source, a big bummer we had to lose Leo tho

[Danny]

Good to see we made the right call on Barkeep, too bad he took down Chief Rum which gives them another night kill now.

I think we have to put some trust into Hoopsguy. He could have easily stayed on Chief Rum and I would have been the one who looked bad because I switched. Instead he made the switch allowing me to also and avoid the tie.

[hoopsguy]

So day 1 was a waste, at least the final votes. Maybe there is something to be found on votes on Lathum earlier, or trying to discern "known good" on the candidates. But obviously it ended as villager/villager.

If I was the seer I would take a longer look at the people who made the move over to Barkeep when it looked like he might be saved. I was mildly surprised to see as much of a swing as there was over to Chief Rum in the votes.

Going from memory, I believe that Jackal laid down a fairly late vote on Barkeep when the outcome was in doubt. So he probably deserves a fair amount of trust for this.

For the seer, I would start with the voters on Chief Rum in Post #258 when considering a scan. I do not think, for the reasons that Danny outlined, that I'm the best option here to scan but I'm fine if you want to do it. However, I would add Danny to the list to scan as he did switch his vote over to Chief Rum to break the tie just after Post #258.

So, the people I would be considering would be Heinz, Lathum, RendeR, and Danny. Personally, I do not have all of these guys rated equally but I'll wait to see what the deadline brings before trying to sort them out. I'm hoping we have the remaining wolves in that group. If not, good job by them of not over-reaching to try and save BK.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So day 1 was a waste, at least the final votes. Maybe there is something to be found on votes on Lathum earlier, or trying to discern "known good" on the candidates. But obviously it ended as villager/villager.

If I was the seer I would take a longer look at the people who made the move over to Barkeep when it looked like he might be saved. I was mildly surprised to see as much of a swing as there was over to Chief Rum in the votes.

Going from memory, I believe that Jackal laid down a fairly late vote on Barkeep when the outcome was in doubt. So he probably deserves a fair amount of trust for this.

For the seer, I would start with the voters on Chief Rum in Post #258 when considering a scan. I do not think, for the reasons that Danny outlined, that I'm the best option here to scan but I'm fine if you want to do it. However, I would add Danny to the list to scan as he did switch his vote over to Chief Rum to break the tie just after Post #258.

So, the people I would be considering would be Heinz, Lathum, RendeR, and Danny. Personally, I do not have all of these guys rated equally but I'll wait to see what the deadline brings before trying to sort them out. I'm hoping we have the remaining wolves in that group. If not, good job by them of not over-reaching to try and save BK.

This is good analysis for our scan. If there was more than two wolves I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was here and the other an early vote for barkeep thinking they could get in early on what they thought might be a run.
Of course I am on Hoopsguy list and I was the second original vote for BK, so I fit under both categories.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

This is good analysis for our scan. If there was more than two wolves I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was here and the other an early vote for barkeep thinking they could get in early on what they thought might be a run.
Of course I am on Hoopsguy list and I was the second original vote for BK, so I fit under both categories.

Danny, if you have some time on your hands (I'm actually working from home tonight) would you be able to take a look at the vote history from the first two days? This would include the "unvotes', as they may be interesting for both days.

[Danny]

So building upon Hoopsguy lists, I think there are the two groups

Danny, PackerFanatic and Chubby
Heinz, Lathum, Render and Danny

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Danny, if you have some time on your hands (I'm actually working from home tonight) would you be able to take a look at the vote history from the first two days? This would include the "unvotes', as they may be interesting for both days.

Sure

[Danny]

Day 1

Barkeep votes Hannibal (#79)
The Jackal votes Hannibal (#83)
Hannibal votes Barkeep (#86)
Danny votes Lathum (#96)
Packer Fanatic votes Chief Rum (#97)
Lathum votes Hannibal (#101)
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#109)
Render votes Chief Rum (#111)
Hannibal unvotes BK abd votes Lathum (#118)
Chubby votes jeheinz (133)
Chubby unvotes jeheinz and votes Chief Rum (138)
Danny unvotes Lathum and votes Hannibal (140)
Hannibal unvotes Lathum and votes CR (146)
Hoopsguy votes Hannibal (152)
Chief Rum votes Hannibal Lecter (166)

Day 2


Chief Rum votes Barkeep (#210)
Danny votes Barkeep (#213)
Barkeep votes Chief Rum (#214)
Packer Fanatic votes Barkeep (#219)
Chubby votes Barkeep (#225)
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#240)
Hoopsguy votes Chief Rum (#244)
Lathum votes Chief Rum (#245)
Render votes Chief Rum (#246)
jackal votes Barkeep (#255)
Danny unvotes Barkeep and votes Chief Rum (#261)
Hoopsguy unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#264)
Danny unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#269)
jeheinz unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#272)

[RendeR]

Gah, talk about a rough lynch. Is it just me or are we as a village in the midst of a nasty losing streak?

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, I did not feel that way. We got an important bad guy and should have some kind of path to finding the other bad guys.

That said, the last few games the wolves have taken it to the villagers. Hopefully we are in position to change that in the very near future.

[Danny]

I was happy with the lynch as well. Getting a wolf on day two is a good thing.

[The Jackal]

Still pissed at me for voting BK, RendeR?

I didn't want to put us in a tie but I didn't think CR was bad.

[hoopsguy]

I'm interested to see what happens with this night action.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Still pissed at me for voting BK, RendeR?

I didn't want to put us in a tie but I didn't think CR was bad.

Knowing that I was going to switch, I was very pleased to see you put your vote there at that point in time. Welcome to my near-trust list.

[The Jackal]

We should be able to build up a decent near-trust list based on voting analysis movin forwards.

[EagleFan]

About 10 minutes until the night move deadline. Glad to see there weren't any recent questions to answer. Have been watching the Victoria Secret fashion show so my mind has been wondering.

[EagleFan]

Night move deadline. Results shortly.

[EagleFan]

Everyone tried to settle in for the night, or everyone appears to. Thenight is quiet, almost too quiet. There are a few sounds heard but nothing that seems out of the ordinary.

As day breaks you begin to gather to see if everyone is okay. Danny? Where is Danny?

You being to search frantically. Maybe he is still asleep somewhere. Behind he bar? Nothing. Back office? Nothing.

You enter the supply room. Oh, there he is, sleeping on the floor.

Wait, he is not breathing, that look on his face, it's frozen in terror. You take a closer look and find that he is dead. You cannot see any physcial evidence of foul play but he is definitely dead.

You search him and notice that his body feel warm, almost as if microwaved.

In the search you find only a few clues. There is a hand written note that fell out of his pocket (a shopping list, strange hand writing style though) and an ID. It looks like he worked at the DMV and led a normal life. The last thing you find is a pamphlet, some religious pamphlet condemning witches and anything magical.

Danny was an innocent.

[Danny]

Wait, I'm alive! *falls dead again*

Good luck innocents

[Chief Rum]

Since I am dead now, can I be reincarnated as Alyssa Milano's favorite sexy bra? Thanks!

Glad to see the village made the right call. I figured I was dead tonight no matter what. Too bad BK ended up being a brutal, and taking me down at the lynch.

Good luck to the village the rest of the way.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, Danny is not at all who I thought the wolves would kill. While he was not at the top of the distrust list, he was someone that I thought required some scrutiny. I guess not anymore ...

Lathum, Render, and Heinz are the three that voted for Chief Rum yesterday (Heinz with a late switch over to BK after helping build the case for Rum most of the day). Also, none of those three voted for Barkeep on Day 1 when he had an early vote on him. So no real point of separation here either.

I'm hoping one of those three was scanned last night, wolf or no wolf. I also know whose lead I will likely follow in the thread based on my presumption of seer. So for right now I'll sit back and wait for other folks to check in for the day before moving into voting mode.