2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Drake

In some ways, I wonder if that wasn't actually a calculated stroke.

I mean, Trump isn't an idiot, and he's lived in the public eye for too long to know that he's not going to convince evangelical voters that he's one of the tribe on merit. I think he's also too smart to know that "Two Corinthians" isn't the way it's pronounced in America generally. One of his advisors would have known so, at the very least.

And yet he said it. He said it on a stage where he knows he doesn't have any evangelical bona fides. It almost amounts to meta-pandering. I *see* you seeing me pandering to you. So let's just flat acknowledge that and move on to other points we have in common. I'm Donald Trump, I want your vote, and I'm going to pander to you so obviously that it's a wink-and-nudge form of honesty.

I'm not sure a career politician could pull off something that cheeky, but a seasoned entertainer (which Trump is at this point, just as much as he's a businessman) can.

There's nothing to be gained by trying to fight Cruz and/or Rubio on this piece of ground...so my take is that Trump cedes it in a way that's almost charming for its obvious clumsiness.

Interesting. Romney could not pander to them because he was a known devout Mormon. But Trump is so obviously non-Religious¹ that he can just pander away and they are ok with it. You don't have to agree with us. You just have to show us that you are willing to pretend if we ask you to.


1. Unless you count Trumpism as a religion.

[Kodos]

Aside from his obvious allegiance to himself, does Trump have any core beliefs? So many of his positions are the opposite of what he's said in the past.

[digamma]

Winning?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by digamma

Winning?

[cartman]

[Kodos]

They've got tiger blood!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by cartman

I would definitely vote for that ticket

[Kodos]

One Sheen in the White House was more than enough.

[panerd]

I wonder how Gary Johnson would have done this year with this group of candidates? One could argue no better than Rand Paul did but I think Johnson is a more eloquent speaker and also brings more experience. I have come to grips with the fact that there are far more JiMGa's in the GOP than libertarian leaning but this batch this year seems particularly horrendous.

[stevew]

Probably a lot of kiddie table debates for Johnson.

[Kodos]

What's the lowdown on Kasich? I don't know much about him, but he seems a little more palatable than the other guys.

Edit: Nevermind. Looking at his Wikipedia page, he's not so great.

[QuikSand]

I am not a delusional Polyanna type who denies the effectiveness of a strong negative advertisement.

So, here you have it.



Hats off.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Kodos

What's the lowdown on Kasich? I don't know much about him, but he seems a little more palatable than the other guys.

Edit: Nevermind. Looking at his Wikipedia page, he's not so great.

He's a more convincing liar than the others.

[NobodyHere]

I'd still take him any day over Rubio, Cruz, and Bush

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Kodos

What's the lowdown on Kasich? I don't know much about him, but he seems a little more palatable than the other guys.

Edit: Nevermind. Looking at his Wikipedia page, he's not so great.

Career politician. Nice guy. No chance of winning.

[digamma]

That commercial is really well done.

*goes to take shower*

[Easy Mac]

I've actually seen anti-Kasich ads the last few days in SC, so its pretty clear he's picking up some steam. Haven't seen much on Bush or Carson, so its pretty safe to say they're done.

[Kodos]

Yeah, if W can't give his brother a bump in SC, his prospects seem pretty dim.

[flere-imsaho]

Trump takes a declining 15-point lead into tomorrow's SC primary. Cruz & Rubio are neck-and-neck for 2nd around 17/18 points and Bush & Kasich are neck-and-neck for 4th around 10 points. Carson's an afterthought at this point.

In Nevada (next Tuesday), Trump holds a 22-point lead with Cruz & Rubio bunched behind him at roughly 20 points. Kasich, Carson & Bush in that order, all in single digits.

Thoughts:

1. To be clear, Carson's done. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if he continues to stay in the race much longer than anyone else would if it continues to be a money-making exercise for his associates.

2. If Trump/Cruz/Rubio go 1-2-3 (any order) in both Nevada & SC I can't really see how/why Kasich & Bush would still be in the race past next Wednesday. Sure, Bush probably has the money, but if he can't crack 3rd (or even 4th) in the next two states, he has no real chance of winning and it'll just be embarrassing at this point. I think Kasich's final hope is a surprise 3rd, or even 2nd, in SC, and if he doesn't get that, he'll bow out.

3. I kind of expect Cruz & Rubio to be neck-and-neck in these two states, with Trump above or below them.

4. Which Trump support shows up? Iowa (which didn't) or NH (which did)? If it's not 50/50 by next Wednesday (meaning Trump's poll support holds or doesn't in BOTH states), then we should have a better picture of how serious his chances are for the rest of the way.

5. If Trump's support craters in both states, then this is a Rubio vs. Cruz campaign.

6. For those vested in the GOP's success, current state is kind of a no-win scenario. If Trump's support holds, then they have the bogey of a possible Trump nomination (or heavy involvement in the process). But if he fades, then the airtime he's been taking will go to the increasingly vicious battle between Cruz & Rubio, much to the detriment of the final candidate.

7. Let's think about how this matchup plays out. On one hand you've got Rubio, a candidate who looks good on paper but is clearly out of his depth on the national trail and demonstrably lacks the energy to campaign really hard. On the other hand you've got Cruz, who is widely reviled but is running a high-energy, very aggressive campaign. If Cruz wins, he's the most negative nominee from either party that I can remember. If Rubio wins, how long will it take him to recover from Cruz's smears?

8. Even worse, if Clinton takes the next few states she's supposed to, and that race returns to "foregone conclusion", the only other "airtime suck" would be the SCOTUS nomination.

[NobodyHere]

Rumors are that the Bush campaign is out of money.

ETA: Who knows though. There have been some stories that Bush is telling staffers that he can't pay them. It could just be another dirty trick by the Cruz campaign.

[flere-imsaho]

SC:

If Trump wins: you have to think he gets Nevada too, and rolls into March with 3/4 victories, momentum and, presumably, Cruz & Rubio still sniping at each other. We start to seriously consider a Trump nomination.

If Cruz wins: he's bucked the establishment in both Iowa & SC. He has momentum. His fund-raising probably increases. And by March he's probably able to focus, realistically, on Trump or Rubio, but not both.

If Rubio wins: Bush & Kasich drop out and the establishment consolidates on him. Expect significant amounts of money to pour into his campaign and maybe this starts to make up for his lackluster energy on the campaign trail. He still would have to find a way to deflate Cruz or Trump or both.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It could just be another dirty trick by the Cruz campaign.

It amuses me that none of the other GOP candidates can figure out the Cruz strategy of "do something dirty, apologize, do it again", especially since it was pioneered by Karl Rove.

Right now this is a huge problem for Rubio. If he can't play dirty (or somehow counter Cruz's dirtiness), Cruz is going to snipe him right out of the nomination.

[miked]

I loved the photoshopped ad with Rubio shaking hands with the president and talking about a yes vote that he actually voted no on. It takes huevos to campaign like that.

[digamma]

How did I miss this?

[stevew]

I'm still surprised Rubio survived Chris Christie setting off a suicide belt right in front of him. Thought the shrapnel would have taken him down.

[larrymcg421]

Problems for Trump tomorrow? Today's SC polls...

(Clemson) Trump 28, Cruz 19, Rubio 15, Bush 10, Kasich 9, Carson 6 Trump +9
(Opinion Savvy) Trump 27, Rubio 24, Cruz 19, Bush 11, Kasich 7, Carson 8 Trump +3
Emerson Trump 36, Rubio 19, Cruz 18, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 6 Trump +17
(NBC/WSJ/Marist) Trump 28, Cruz 23, Rubio 15, Bush 13, Kasich 9, Carson 9

[flere-imsaho]

That's still an 8.5 average lead. Down, yes, definitely, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he underperforms (like Iowa) and doesn't win.

[Solecismic]

Posting my prediction early because we have a wind storm right now and a power outage seems likely:

Trump 28, Rubio 25, Cruz 18, Bush 11, Kasich 10, Carson 6.

I'll do the same thing I did last week, if people want to play along.

[tarcone]

Trump 27
Cruz 24
Rubio 23
Bush 12
Kasich 10
Carson 4

[JPhillips]

Trump 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 21
Bush 16
Kasich 11
Carson 3

[dave731]

The ads I have seen from the Cruz campaign have been sheer genius. I don't know who he has doing them but if I ever get the urge to run for major political office, I know who I want running my ad campaign.

[vex]

Trump 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 21
Bush 12
Kasich 9
Carson 3

[King of New York]

Cruz 28
Trump 26
Rubio 18
Bush 16
Kasich 6
Carson 6

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by dave731

The ads I have seen from the Cruz campaign have been sheer genius. I don't know who he has doing them but if I ever get the urge to run for major political office, I know who I want running my ad campaign.

Ugh, I just got reminded that I'll probably start seeing a bombardment of ads in a week or two.

[EagleFan]

Anything that I see from the Cruz campaign makes my skin crawl.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by dave731

The ads I have seen from the Cruz campaign have been sheer genius. I don't know who he has doing them but if I ever get the urge to run for major political office, I know who I want running my ad campaign.

Ask and you shall have it: Ted Cruz’s Howitzer | New Republic

It's a good read.

[NobodyHere]

Trump 27
Rubio 24
Cruz 21
Bush 12
Kasich 9
Carson 7

[flere-imsaho]

Trump 22
Cruz 21
Rubio 20
Kasich 19
Bush 11
Carson 7

[Ben E Lou]

Trump 28
Cruz 25
Rubio 23
Jeb! 9
Kasich 9
Carson 6

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by digamma

How did I miss this?

[JPhillips]

NBC already calling it for Trump.

[NobodyHere]

Fox is saying that Trump has won SC

[Thomkal]

So Trump wins South Carolina, and I still don't get the appeal at all. No real government or foreign relations experience, and you are willing to make him leader of the free world?

It was interesting here in my neighborrhood, mostly retirees and older couples. The only political signs in people's yard were for Trump. Not a single Democratic candidate either. Kinda sad seeing that during my morning walk At least the ads will be over for a little while at least.

It's going to be interesting who finishes in second. Cruz and Rubio pretty much tied last I saw. Bush further back in 4th. Has to be the end of Carson I think?

[JPhillips]

Duh, he represents anger at liberal overreach.

Certainly none of his support is driven by racism.

[Thomkal]

Maybe we should turn to our neighbors to the north for help...

thecanadaparty

[QuikSand]

Right now is the moment to appreciate the sheer power of winning. Everyone with a newspaper or calculator knew that Trump would win easily, right? If we had a poll in this thread, 20 of 20 people would have called SC for Trump.

Look at the reactions today. Insiders are gobbling up the close run for 2nd and who might drop out, but just look at all the buzz on "Trump Wins" as if it's a game-changer. Newspapers tomorrow will be full of that "news" and analysis for a full cycle.

That's why I felt like Sanders needed to win Nevada, not just come close. Looks like the (D) takeaway is somewhere in the middle, but for him there's a massive perception differential between a close win and a close loss. He's going to look back on an alarmingly small number of caucus voters in two states and think about what might have been. (cf Bern Your Enthusiasm)

[Ben E Lou]

Jeb is out.

[flere-imsaho]

Bush drops out.

Edit: Damn your fast fingers, Ben!

[QuikSand]

Out!

[flere-imsaho]

So, there's this:

The Republicans now switch states with the Democrats and head to Nevada, where Trump’s casino empire has led him to a more than 20-point lead in polling averages. On the first day of March – so-called “Super Tuesday” – a dozen states hold their nominating contests and the once-expansive GOP field may finally start to narrow to a small number of candidates.

Trump has been leading in the polls in almost all of those states except Texas, where Cruz holds a hometown advantage.

Picking up on what QuikSand said about narrative, let's say Trump goes 3 of 4 and then does a 75%+ sweep on Super Tuesday. There will still be a lot of slog to the convention, and Cruz seems up for it even if Rubio is not, but the narrative will clearly be a Trump juggernaut. In fact, it's that already.

The most surprising thing to me is that Trump is currently returning a 10%+ victory in SC which, although down from his polls, comes after a week of more gaffes than normal, including an ill-advised run-in with a popular pope, being called out by Ted Cruz, and being very negative in the debate.

We've been waiting for the land mine since last July. I don't think there is one.