2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[JPhillips]

Has anyone ever spent so much for such poor results as Jeb!

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Has anyone ever spent so much for such poor results as Jeb!

Giuliani was pretty bad, but I do think Jeb has taken it to another level.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

leader of the free world?

Tangential thought - when do we retire this term? Do the other "free" countries still buy into this?

[bronconick]

Trump's also going to get all 50 delegates tonight, so all the talk about who gets 2nd is hilarious.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Jeb is out.

If I had bet money that Bush would make it to Super Tuesday when he announced his candidacy, I'd be losing a lot of money right now. Had to be the odds-on favorite to win, and now Kasich and Carson might even outlast him. Has to be a colossal failure and decision to run on his part.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Tangential thought - when do we retire this term? Do the other "free" countries still buy into this?

well I'm not sure other countries have thought that for awhile. Especially since Obama has tried to make it "Planet Consensus". Probably the second Bush was in a position to be the leader of the free world at least militarily.

[stevew]

http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughl...enge-ted-cruz/


Good charts as to which events operate under what rules.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Trump's also going to get all 50 delegates tonight, so all the talk about who gets 2nd is hilarious.

Not really, the one way to take down Trump is for the other candidates to drop out and unite behind another candidate. Looks for Rubio or Kasich to get a bump after tonight.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

If I had bet money that Bush would make it to Super Tuesday when he announced his candidacy, I'd be losing a lot of money right now. Had to be the odds-on favorite to win, and now Kasich and Carson might even outlast him. Has to be a colossal failure and decision to run on his part.

Trump beat him to the ground for the last half year.

[dave731]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Ask and you shall have it: Ted Cruz’s Howitzer | New Republic

It's a good read.

Very good read...I am impressed by the guy. Disgusted, but impressed.

[Solecismic]

Results of our minor competition:

1. BenELou, 2/3. NobodyHere/vex, 4. Consensus (Trump 27, Cruz 23, Rubio 22, Bush 12, Kasich 10, Carson 5).

Congrats, Ben.

[JPhillips]

Ben Carson is the best. From his statement:

Dr. Ben Carson stands as one of only five candidates remaining of the original 17, and received as many delegates in South Carolina as all other candidates but the winner.

[JPhillips]

Sample size is small and things have never happened until they do, but if any of the other candidates went 2,1,1 in the first three contests we'd be talking about how quickly they can sew up the nomination.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sample size is small and things have never happened until they do, but if any of the other candidates went 2,1,1 in the first three contests we'd be talking about how quickly they can sew up the nomination.

True. But the polls consistently show Trump does extraordinarily poorly as a second choice for supporters of other candidates. It suggests a lower ceiling and that Rubio will gain considerably once it's a three-person race and the roadmap after the SEC primary becomes more favorable.

No doubt today was a big day for Trump, but I think it was a solid one for Rubio as well.

[albionmoonlight]

I wonder what incentives Cruz has here. Most politicians would listen to the party elders, drop out and let Rubio take on Trump one-on-one, and expect that to get paid back in the future.

But I think that Cruz is so disliked in the party that he really does not have that incentive. He might be better served staying in and getting enough delegates to make a power play closer to the end.

[SirFozzie]

yeah, Nate Silver is saying the common wisdom for the likelihood of the nominee is Trump 50%, Rubio 40%, Field (Cruz, Carson, Kasich) 10%

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Ben Carson is the best. From his statement:

Okay, that's great.

[Ben E Lou]

So, has anyone been looking at the various states' delegate allocation methods? I did a little this morning, and unless I'm really missing something, it appears that unless Carson and Kasich drop out before Super Tuesday, this thing is pretty much over, and even if they do, it's not going to be easy for anyone to catch up to Trump. 35-25-25 type wins earn a surprisingly lopsided share of delegates in many places. For example, his 32.5-22.5-22.3 win last night appears that it will earn him somewhere in the 38-44 delegate range...out of 50. CNN's current delegate estimate is as follows...

Trump--61
Cruz--11
Rubio--10
Kasich--5
Bush--4
Carson--3

So Trump has won less than 1/3 of the votes far, but nearly 2/3 of the delegates.

[stevew]

Rubio has to win Ohio and Florida and even that might not be enough.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Trump's also going to get all 50 delegates tonight, so all the talk about who gets 2nd is hilarious.

That's how I feel about the GOP primary in general. So much fuss just to find out who will finish 2nd to Clinton.

[QuikSand]

Sounds like Romney is about to endorse Rubio. Makes sense.

I'm starting to agree now with the argument that it really isn't Trump-Cruz-Other...it's really just Trump-Other.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

So, has anyone been looking at the various states' delegate allocation methods? I did a little this morning, and unless I'm really missing something, it appears that unless Carson and Kasich drop out before Super Tuesday, this thing is pretty much over, and even if they do, it's not going to be easy for anyone to catch up to Trump. 35-25-25 type wins earn a surprisingly lopsided share of delegates in many places. For example, his 32.5-22.5-22.3 win last night appears that it will earn him somewhere in the 38-44 delegate range...out of 50. CNN's current delegate estimate is as follows...

Trump--61
Cruz--11
Rubio--10
Kasich--5
Bush--4
Carson--3

So Trump has won less than 1/3 of the votes far, but nearly 2/3 of the delegates.

Final numbers are in, and Trump got all 50, giving him exactly 67 out of 100 assigned delegates. And by my calculations, he has 31.9% of the votes so far.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Sounds like Romney is about to endorse Rubio. Makes sense.

I'm starting to agree now with the argument that it really isn't Trump-Cruz-Other...it's really just Trump-Other.

And yet, given the tenor of the electorate this year, I have a feeling that's the death knell for Rubio.

So many people (including some in this thread) have been adamant that if only Republicans had nominated a TRUE conservative in 2012, we'd be talking about a re-election campaign and not an open Presidency this year. With that kind of anti-Romney sentiment, I'm not sure an endorsement FROM him helps anybody.

(Though I admit to kind of wishing he'd endorse Cruz so I could watch heads asplode.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

And yet, given the tenor of the electorate this year, I have a feeling that's the death knell for Rubio.

I'd say it's a strong negative for any/all Trump voters.
A strong, but not as-strong, negative for most Cruz voters.

That means it hurts him with at least half the GOP primary voters ... but I'm not sure how many of those were ever going to vote for another pseudocon anyway.

[dave731]

I love Carson's optimism...I have been a fan of his since he announced. Hoping somebody scoops him up for VP consideration or something earth shattering happens between now and Super Tuesday that flips the frontrunners on their head.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by dave731

I love Carson's optimism...I have been a fan of his since he announced. Hoping somebody scoops him up for VP consideration or something earth shattering happens between now and Super Tuesday that flips the frontrunners on their head.

My guess is that Rubio is currently imploring Kasich to drop out and that Kasich is saying he will as long as he picks him to be his running mate.

[albionmoonlight]

My thoughts on each candidate's gameplan going forward:

Carson: Easy. As long as the campaign is making money and helping build the Carson brand, he stays in. Any of his remaining supporters have to know that he does not have a shot. So they are supporting him because they believe in him. I know that the CW is that if he drops, his evangelical support will go to Cruz. But I have to think that any of his supporters that were so inclined would have read the writing on the wall and already be supporting Cruz.

Trump: I'm the guy who thought that he was done when he made fun of John McCain. So I really am not the person to provide analysis here. I've come around to Jon's thinking that the worst thing he can do is to start moderating himself and acting like a more conventional front runner. I will say that if he wants to add something to what he's been doing, he might want to consider starting to put out charts with misleadingly scaled Y-axes to make his delegate lead look YUGE. Make an argument that "hey, I'm way way far ahead, and the sooner you voters can convince Dumb and Dumber to drop out, the sooner I can start turning the Trump machine against Hillary." That would dovetail nicely with his whole I'm a winning winner who wins message, and it might actually get some on-the-fence voters to switch to him. It's a pretty solid electabilty argument, actually. With only two main opponents, there is enough time to attack both of them. If I had to choose, I'd probably hit Rubio harder, though.

Cruz:Nate Silver has a good argument that the delegate math does not really add up for him. But what incentive does he have to drop out? He's a really smart guy. He knows that if he were to drop out and support Rubio, the establishment would not pay him back in kind because they hate him. I think that his best play is to stay in, collect delegates, and make a real power play going into the convention. Trump LOVES to wheel and deal. If he needs Cruz's delegates to push him over the top, he will make it worth Cruz's while.^1.

Rubio: Play 4-corners. The later states help you more than the early ones. You have the establishment in your corner. Don't screw that up by trying to out-Trump Trump. And "I can beat Hillary; they can't" has to be your "It's the economy stupid." I'd make most of my anti-Trump and Cruz ads about Hillary. "Vote for them, and President Hillary will appoint Obama to the Supreme Court and he will then order the FBI to take your guns and sell them to Mexico and use the money to fund abortions."

Gilmore: Wait for a deadlocked convention. Jump in as the savior of the party. Get the nomination and end up doing better than Reagan. All going according to plan.

1. Huge caveat here that I am not sure how trading delegates works. I don't know if they are really his to trade and how that would actually work.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Rubio: Play 4-corners. The later states help you more than the early ones. You have the establishment in your corner. Don't screw that up by trying to out-Trump Trump. And "I can beat Hillary; they can't" has to be your "It's the economy stupid." I'd make most of my anti-Trump and Cruz ads about Hillary. "Vote for them, and President Hillary will appoint Obama to the Supreme Court and he will then order the FBI to take your guns and sell them to Mexico and use the money to fund abortions."

And both Trump & Cruz can eliminate Rubio by pointing out that there really might not be much difference between electing her & electing a willing capitulator like Rubio.

Make a note here: if you see Cruz doing the heavy lifting on that theme (rather than Trump), it might be a sign that a Trump/Cruz bargain has been struck.

[JPhillips]

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Gilmore: Wait for a deadlocked convention. Jump in as the savior of the party. Get the nomination and end up doing better than Reagan. All going according to plan.

Haha, never heard of Gilmore. I'm staring at this and wondering who this even is? Has he been in the race the whole time???

[Kodos]

His girls are kinda cute.

[albionmoonlight]

I guess it kind of speaks to Kasich that I forgot about him.

Kasich: He seems to have put most of his eggs into the Michigan basket, so I do not see him dropping out before then. Makes sense for him to stay in for a while. Give Rubio a few weeks taking heavy fire from Trump and Cruz to make sure he does not implode. In the unlikely, but possible, event that Rubio just flat-out breaks under the pressure, suddenly Kasich is the only establishment candidate still running. If Rubio does manage to get his footing and it turns into the expected Trump/Rubio/Cruz race, then Kasich can still stay in and collect some delegates. He might have some play in the midwest. He can negotiate a campaign suspension with Rubio's people in a way that will provide maximum benefit to Rubio and set Kasich up for a VP nod or a sweet cabinet post. He's 64, so he's probably too old to be thinking 4 or 8 years ahead (though Trump, Hillary, and Bernie are resetting the ideas about age). Still, if he runs a positive campaign and drops out at the right time, he'll have played it pretty well.

[Butter]

God, I wish I had put some money on Trump getting the nomination like 5 months ago.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And both Trump & Cruz can eliminate Rubio by pointing out that there really might not be much difference between electing her & electing a willing capitulator like Rubio.

Make a note here: if you see Cruz doing the heavy lifting on that theme (rather than Trump), it might be a sign that a Trump/Cruz bargain has been struck.

It's quite something that the Rubio campaign has been able to paint him as a "moderate" Republican when his actual voting record is one of the most conservative in Congress. This particular metric puts him at 94%--T4 among all Senators, and T7 in both houses overall. Average Republican Senator? 60% Average Republican House Member (63%) Rubio? 94%

Heritage Action Scorecard

[flere-imsaho]

Two great posts, albion - I think you've hit the current state and gameplan right on.

Heard elsewhere that the candidate most likely to bolt and run independent would actually be Cruz, not Trump. Reasons:

1. The GOP hates him and he hates the GOP (establishment)
2. He's still raising money
3. Unlike Trump, who might deal, or Rubio, who is clearly establishment (although he was elected as a TP candidate in 2010 - how times change!), he's a true believer


Now that would be interesting....

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

It's quite something that the Rubio campaign has been able to paint him as a "moderate" Republican when his actual voting record is one of the most conservative in Congress.

Same story with Kasich, really.

Is it just good spin, or has the GOP been barreling rightward since 2008?

[larrymcg421]

I put some money on Trump when he was at .48 before SC, figuring that when he won his price would go up. He's now at .57. I think he'll win Nevada and go up more, but I'm wondering when I should start to hedge my bets.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Same story with Kasich, really.

Is it just good spin, or has the GOP been barreling rightward since 2008?

Why not both?

[flere-imsaho]

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

It's quite something that the Rubio campaign has been able to paint him as a "moderate" Republican when his actual voting record is one of the most conservative in Congress. This particular metric puts him at 94%--T4 among all Senators, and T7 in both houses overall. Average Republican Senator? 60% Average Republican House Member (63%) Rubio? 94%

Heritage Action Scorecard

So someone that wants to eliminate capital gains taxes isn't a moderate? Shocking!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

It's quite something that the Rubio campaign has been able to paint him as a "moderate" Republican when his actual voting record is one of the most conservative in Congress. This particular metric puts him at 94%--T4 among all Senators, and T7 in both houses overall. Average Republican Senator? 60% Average Republican House Member (63%) Rubio? 94%

Heritage Action Scorecard

It's quite something that his sorry ass is still considered a Republican at all.
He should have been booted after his capitulation on amnesty alone.

That his metric is what it is stands as testimony to how weak GOP Congresscritters have been, and why its time to put them in the road.

[albionmoonlight]

So it gets leaked that Romney will support Rubio. Then he does not, right before a caucus in a heavily Mormon state.

I'm probably reading too much into it, but if I were Romney and I wanted to hurt Rubio while looking like I was trying to help Rubio, that's what I would do.

[larrymcg421]

I wonder if someone convinced him not to endorse Rubio in case he still has a shot at the brokered convention. I actually felt bad for Romney that he got fooled by a bunch of idiots in 2012 who told him the polls were liberally biased and that he was really going to win. But if he's listening to those same idiots now, then he deserves to get humiliated.

[NobodyHere]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politi...video-apology/

Originally Posted by Article

"I have made clear in this campaign we will conduct this campaign with the very highest standards and integrity," Cruz said, adding that Tyler is a "good man."

[Solecismic]

Trump is threatening the Ricketts family (owners of the Cubs) for donating to a SuperPAC formed to support Rubio. Says they have a lot to hide.

He implies he has knowledge of possible criminal activity, and is threatening to use his office to investigate if elected.

I thought Republicans were pissed off that Democrats did half of that using the IRS.

But, yeah, the guy could drop his pants and urinate on Jeb Bush, and it wouldn't affect his support. The question is all about his ceiling.

I'm all for a non-politician shaking things up a little, but I was thinking more along the lines of a slightly saner Ben Carson than this.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It's quite something that his sorry ass is still considered a Republican at all.
He should have been booted after his capitulation on amnesty alone.

That his metric is what it is stands as testimony to how weak GOP Congresscritters have been, and why its time to put them in the road.

And that's where we differ. Amnesty is the only real solution at this point. There is no way to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Lock down the border, build the walls, yes, do it....and when illegal slow to a trickle, then provide amnesty. We shouldn't advertise that though, just do it.

[Swaggs]

I think Kasich is in a really interesting spot here. If he wanted to be a good GOP member, conventional wisdom suggests that he should drop out and support Rubio, so the "establishment" candidate can challenge Trump. That would be a really tough thing to do with him having tons more experience and similar delegate counts and finishes thus far. I think it would be pretty hard to navigate feeling like you are equipped to be president one day and then accepting tons of donations and volunteer hours, just to defer to someone who has 5 more delegates and has finishes of 3-5-2.

It seems like it is really important to him to win Ohio, but pulling those delegates plus seeming strong in The rest of the rust belt, would almost make it almost impossible for Rubio to catch Trump (unless Cruz inexplicably drops out).

My amateur gut tells me that the only thing that stops Trump is if Kasich has an unheard of level of humility (in a politician) that gets the field small enough to allow Rubio to build some traction.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

And that's where we differ. Amnesty is the only real solution at this point.

Only if we lack courage.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm linking what's handy at the moment, a link to the Washington Post review of Bush spending is included in the article if you prefer it.

Consultants reaped windfall from failed Bush campaign | Fox News

I'm not actually sharing this story/raising the topic to throw dirt on the corpse of Jeb's campaign, I'm actually noting it because it ties to something I said some pages back in this thread: about how what Carson was doing to funnel money to his confidants & pals was pretty darned predictable.

I don't like Carson at this point, I despise Bush ... but neither of them are doing much other than business as usual here in terms of who gets paid for services rendered.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm linking what's handy at the moment, a link to the Washington Post review of Bush spending is included in the article if you prefer it.

Consultants reaped windfall from failed Bush campaign | Fox News

I'm not actually sharing this story/raising the topic to throw dirt on the corpse of Jeb's campaign, I'm actually noting it because it ties to something I said some pages back in this thread: about how what Carson was doing to funnel money to his confidants & pals was pretty darned predictable.

I don't like Carson at this point, I despise Bush ... but neither of them are doing much other than business as usual here in terms of who gets paid for services rendered.

Damnit, how do I get in on this?