Werewolf CXIII: 2010 NFL Draft (WOLVES WIN! #1 Pick: Crimson Fox)

[KWhit]

SAY WHAT?!?!

[KWhit]

Nice going, whoever sabotaged me. Thanks for that.

(Like I wasn't digging myself a big enough hole as it is)....

[henry296]

I think we need to avoid the draft stuff for tomorrow because it is very important since I think we are down to 7-3. I don't think it tells anything about the wolves.

Going back to Day 1 when we were tied at 4-4. Of the 4 votes on me, Danny and CR are now confirmed villagers. That leaves Kwhit and Abe. Kwhit was the tieing vote and Abe eventually unvoted to avoid the tie. The conventional wisdom is that a tie benefits the wolves, I'm going to cast an early vote tonight.

vote kwhit

As for the next couple of days my availability could be impact as my family is visiting for Easter.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by henry296

I think we need to avoid the draft stuff for tomorrow because it is very important since I think we are down to 7-3. I don't think it tells anything about the wolves.

Going back to Day 1 when we were tied at 4-4. Of the 4 votes on me, Danny and CR are now confirmed villagers. That leaves Kwhit and Abe. Kwhit was the tieing vote and Abe eventually unvoted to avoid the tie. The conventional wisdom is that a tie benefits the wolves, I'm going to cast an early vote tonight.

vote kwhit

As for the next couple of days my availability could be impact as my family is visiting for Easter.

Huh?

I voted at exactly the same minute as Hoops that night. I didn't know I was tying it when I cast the vote. In fact, I was around willing to change my vote if no one else came along and switched their vote from a throw-away to an actual meaningful vote.

That's a terrible reason to vote for me, IMO.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to sit tight and wait to see if the seer has anything of interest. I'm hopeful that the night kills have not lined up with their scans.

I'm mildly surprised to see Chief as a villager. I had him a bit lower on the trust scale than the norm at this stage.

[Schmidty]

I just want to come out and say that it was me who screwed up J23's last test. I was thinking it'd be a little flavor and individual stuff. I didn't realize he'd bite it.

Oh, the reason I was able to do what I did, was because I was amazingly awesome in the 40, and intimidated people.

There. A vanilla explanation from a vanilla guy.

[henry296]

Your right Kwhit, but I believe either you our Abe are one of our wolves. The other was someone on Jackal and the third had a buried solo vote.

I'm keeping my vote for now, but hopefully we can't some info tomorrow otherwise I feel we are still shooting in the dark.

I will say, my radar is getting a little stronger on hoops, too. In quiet games, hoops can be a dangerous wolf because he does a great job of controlling the conversation and makes very compelling arguements.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

We've got more big news as the Denver Broncos, #11 in the draft, have made their own move as well. Chief Rum has been drafted by the Denver Broncos. He was a vanilla villager.

PMs going out and then the Big Board will be posted.

As Homer Simpson would say, "The Denver Broncos!"

I'm gonna go play in the UFL. Fie on you all.

(Good luck village).

[hoopsguy]

Henry, the radar ought to be getting stronger on pretty much everyone since we haven't caught a wolf yet.

The profile of the night kills suggest going after the more analytical players, yet I'm still alive. That makes me worried that my public statements have not been on the right path. But that is something I'll hash out tomorrow if we don't have a candidate handed to us by the seer.

[jeheinz72]

Oy vey. I wish I was around at deadline in this one. j23 seemed like a paper tiger all the way. I'm beginning to think that my earlier assumptions are off.

[jeheinz72]

By earlier assumptions I mean the one where I assume the wolves wouldn't so overtly save their own on Day One. Crap.

[Abe Sargent]

Morning All!

[henry296]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

By earlier assumptions I mean the one where I assume the wolves wouldn't so overtly save their own on Day One. Crap.

no, that assumption was good. we were villager-villager on day 1.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by henry296

no, that assumption was good. we were villager-villager on day 1.

Well aside from you "knowing" you're a villager, why should I believe that to be the case?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by henry296

Your right Kwhit, but I believe either you our Abe are one of our wolves. The other was someone on Jackal and the third had a buried solo vote.

I'm keeping my vote for now, but hopefully we can't some info tomorrow otherwise I feel we are still shooting in the dark.

I will say, my radar is getting a little stronger on hoops, too. In quiet games, hoops can be a dangerous wolf because he does a great job of controlling the conversation and makes very compelling arguements.

So now you're changing your story a bit, aren't you?

First it was that you think I am a wolf because I tied up the vote on day 1. When I point out the undisputed fact that I was actually trying to break the tie and was around and willing to move my vote, you change your story to "well, you're right but I still think you're a wolf because you voted for me."

That is suspicious. Big time. It's like you're manufacturing reasons to shine the spotlight on me.

[The Jackal]

Headed to work shortly, I'll consider a vote when I get back in the late afternoon/early evening.

[hoopsguy]

If the seer can clear two people, I would ask that they strongly consider coming out today. That would give us a four person COT, which would be pretty significant in a ten person game.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, people seem to be playing their cards very close to the vest today. Not much at all to read.

[jeheinz72]

Ditto. We need some talk. Catch is, I don't have much.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, going to think out loud.

We were either V / V or W / V on Day 1

[jeheinz72]

V / V - then I'm clearing Abe really well. That's a balls move if you're a wolf to go in the line of fire for no good reason. This scenario elevates my worries on ntn, KWht

W/ V - then Abe is guilty as sin, making us likely have 2 wolves counting Henry. The 3rd would likely reside in those who punted and stayed out of the fray, like DV, and CF

[Chief Rum]

I can talk about my post draft workouts with the Broncos, if you like.

It's really cold here, even in May. Why on Earth would anyone put a city this high? I have to play here in December?!? WTH?

I thought these unis were bad, but then I took a walk through the team hall of fame and, man, those old orange things are hideous. Guess I should be happy about that.

No, I am serious, I really am going to go to the UFL! All their teams are in warm weather cities. I can't even smoke in restaurants here.

[PurdueBrad]

The bench press results are in! There is some big news today.

JEHeinz was an absolute monster on the bench today. He did 31 reps before finally throwing in the towel. WOW, just wow.

The Jackal continues to impress, he put up 22 reps in very good performance.

Henry tied him with 22 reps of his own, definitely a good day for both.

But there are also some pretty big disappointments out there.

KWhit was abysmal, he could barely keep the weight up at all and was only able to do 3 reps. Pathetic, and this is why quarterbacks get mocked.

Schmidty, another skill position player, was almost as bad. He seems to get lazy sometimes as he only did 4 reps.

Crimson Fox showed that while he can run, jump, and catch, he's weak like a girl with his 5 reps. It's sad, really.

[PurdueBrad]

From this scout's point of view:

1- Heinz
2- Jackal
3- Henry
4- Darth
5- ntndeacon
6- Hoops
7- Abe
8- Crimson
9- Schmidty
10- KWhit

[jeheinz72]

Ok, well nothing too nefarious seemed to happen at that event, so time to pop the cork. I'm going to put my faith in Mr. Hoops here. I was debating it before his post, but given my posts I'll roll the dice on it.

I'm the Seer

Day 1, scanned hoops, villager
Day 2, scanned Abe, wolf

If you ask me, this leans pretty heavy to my thinking that Henry is a wolf, at the least. To the point that for winning the bench press I earned a sabotaging ability which is a'comin onto him

[KWhit]

All right!

Barring a counter-reveal:

VOTE ABE

[jeheinz72]

ah yes

Vote Abe

[CrimsonFox]

Nice! I actually suspected you Heinz. Now I know why you acted odd.
So unless someone pulls a poli,

vote abe

[CrimsonFox]

BAH! I forgot to spend my wonderful points today to continue my awesomeness. Guess I can't be awesome at everything (but I'm still Awesome!)

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

The bench press results are in! There is some big news today.

JEHeinz was an absolute monster on the bench today. He did 31 reps before finally throwing in the towel. WOW, just wow.

The Jackal continues to impress, he put up 22 reps in very good performance.

Henry tied him with 22 reps of his own, definitely a good day for both.

But there are also some pretty big disappointments out there.

KWhit was abysmal, he could barely keep the weight up at all and was only able to do 3 reps. Pathetic, and this is why quarterbacks get mocked.

Schmidty, another skill position player, was almost as bad. He seems to get lazy sometimes as he only did 4 reps.

Crimson Fox showed that while he can run, jump, and catch, he's weak like a girl with his 5 reps. It's sad, really.

[Abe Sargent]

Well, dammit! I hated being a wolf in this game, because I wanted to make it to the end with the cool nifty extra stuff in it! Ah well.

I don;t have the chutzpah of hoopsguy to blatantly lie and sell it in the face of a seer scan.

Vote Abe
Vote Nightfall

[Abe Sargent]

PB, I had a blast in this game, just wish it would keep going!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Nice! I actually suspected you Heinz. Now I know why you acted odd.
So unless someone pulls a poli,

vote abe

Heh. Yeah, that's why I ultimately did it. I tend to talk a lot, and I was sure that talking was going to get me night killed. Pretty clear the wolves were content to hunt for the seer for now and let Jackal live a bit.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Well, dammit! I hated being a wolf in this game, because I wanted to make it to the end with the cool nifty extra stuff in it! Ah well.

I don;t have the chutzpah of hoopsguy to blatantly lie and sell it in the face of a seer scan.

Vote Abe
Vote Nightfall

Oh thank god. I'm so glad it's not one of those back-and-forths. I hate those.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

PB, I had a blast in this game, just wish it would keep going!

Thanks Abe, I enjoyed your participation.

My schedule is a bit crazy today. 4-5 pm CST I'm getting a shot for my Crohn's and then from 6:30-??? (probably 9-9:30) I'm judging a talent contest at the school I teach at. I will do my best to get results up as soon as I get home. Sorry about the inconvenience.

PB

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Oh thank god. I'm so glad it's not one of those back-and-forths. I hate those.

Nah, when I'm got I'm got, I admit it.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Nah, when I'm got I'm got, I admit it.

Awesome.

Hey while you're being awesome who are the other two wolves. Let me know and then you'd be a peach in my book

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Ok, well nothing too nefarious seemed to happen at that event, so time to pop the cork. I'm going to put my faith in Mr. Hoops here. I was debating it before his post, but given my posts I'll roll the dice on it.

I'm the Seer

Day 1, scanned hoops, villager
Day 2, scanned Abe, wolf

If you ask me, this leans pretty heavy to my thinking that Henry is a wolf, at the least. To the point that for winning the bench press I earned a sabotaging ability which is a'comin onto him

This is who I thought was the seer and I thought he scanned me Night 1.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE ABE

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is who I thought was the seer and I thought he scanned me Night 1.

Heh. Yes, even after however many months away, I still subscribe to the theory that you should always be the N1 scan.

I figured my hint on you yesterday was pretty overt, that also played into the reveal.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, I was mildly surprised you weren't whacked. It is also why I left you in the conversation of targets even though it would have taken some powerful logic (like someone else revealing as seer, basically) for me to vote for you yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

OK, took a look back at the Day 1 voting. I've included some comments along with the votes; they are bolded.

Day 1

Post 83 - J23 votes Schmidty. 1-0 Schmidty
Post 108 - Autumn votes Jackal. 1-1 Schmidty/Jackal
Post 109 - Heinz votes NTN. 1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN
Post 110 - DV votes Crimson. 1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN/CF
* Note #1: above vote is first one cast by someone who is not cleared villager at this point
Post 114 - Jackal votes Autumn. 1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN/CF/Autumn
Post 120 - CrimsonFox votes DV. 1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV
* Note #2: CF and DV cross-vote each other early. Would be surprised if both are wolves - no reason to bring new wolf candidates into shallow voting pool at this point.
Post #122 - KWhit votes Danny. 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny
Post #125 - CR votes Henry. 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/Henry
* Note #3: 8 people with single votes in 14 person game? God, what a frigging mess.
Post #129 - Schmidty votes J23. 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Jackal/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/Henry/J23
Post #131 - NTN votes Jackal. 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/Henry/J23
Post #132 - Danny unvotes Abe, votes Henry. 2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal/Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/J23
* Note #4: I appear to have missed Danny's earlier vote on Abe. Not worried about it with both parties ID'd at this point.
Post #135 - Henry votes Jackal. 3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal over Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/J23
Post #136 - Abe votes Henry. 3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal/Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/J23
* Note #5: only known wolf vote
Post #146 - Hoops votes Jackal. 4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal over Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/Danny/J23
Post #147 - KWhit unvotes Danny, votes Henry 4-4-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal/Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/J23
* Note #6: we don't know what Henry is but we do know Jackal was a villager. Pretty clear that KWhit and Henry are not wolves together.
Post #151 - Abe "I'm here, and I'm not afraid to make a move late in order to avoid shenanigans"
* Note #7: Abe has vote on Henry, so would be offering to swing vote from unknown to a villager. 15 minutes before deadline at this point.
Post #158 - Abe unvotes Henry, votes Jackal. 5-3-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal over Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/J23
* Note #8: This was five minutes before deadline in tie vote. He clearly knows he is moving to villager - does a wolf risk doing this in Villager vs Villager?
Post #167 - CR unvotes Henry, votes Jackal. 7-2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal over Henry over Schmidty/NTN/CF/Autumn/DV/J23

[jeheinz72]

My take is that it would be pretty farking silly to not lynch Henry after Abe.

[jeheinz72]

I personally like then KWhit or NTN for the 3rd wolf

[hoopsguy]

JE, take a look at note #6 above.

I agree Henry seems like a pretty logical next play. Hard to go another direction in the face of the current evidence.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Abe

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Just a note. Realize that wolves have been known to hurt themselves in side competitions to give themself more credibility in the werewolf part of the game. Nobody yet has claimed that the obvious rumor mongering that was generated to Abe. could have been a ploy to ingratiate him further to the villagers.

I think to still suspect me at this point is to not go back and read my posts. granted I should have had the chutzpah to follow through on this analysis. But if Iwas a wolf this would have been a very ballsy post.

[Darth Vilus]

Well, looks like im going to

Vote Abe

And let it be known, I was the only one to vote Abe yesterday. Just saying.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

JE, take a look at note #6 above.

I agree Henry seems like a pretty logical next play. Hard to go another direction in the face of the current evidence.

True, maybe it's not both of them.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I don;t have the chutzpah of hoopsguy to blatantly lie and sell it in the face of a seer scan.

For me, there is no moment in WW that is more fun than pulling this off.

It doesn't seem like we have many of these any more. At one point, I figured it was because we had a pretty veteran/savvy group that was tougher to bluff, but I'm not as sure of that anymore. There is a whole generation or two of players who haven't really seen a first-rate "beat the seer" play yet and I'm rooting for someone to pull it off in the near future.

[jeheinz72]

Oh it is a blast when you're the wolf.

If you're on the Seer end of it...ugh.