WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Well, it has been some time since I played, but back then it wasn't unusual for the subject of a scan to receive some kind of notification that something happened to them. They wouldn't be told per se that they were scanned, but that someone visited them during the night. Again, I don't know if that's the norm now or not.

huh interesting!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Danny

Here goes, I am the bodyguard, last night I guarded EagleFan. Nothing happened which means there was no kill attempt on EF. This means either the wolves screwed up and did not send in a kill order or EF is a wolf and was assigned to kill someone, but I guess couldn't because I was guarding him.

He did PM me that I was scanned and that he knew I was watching over him last night and must be the BG. He then questioned what I knew from the attack. It doesn't make sense of him not being a wolf unless the wolves screwed up. And if he is a wolf they clearly know I am the BG now anyway. I will be protecting myself tonight, so will have at least one more day here after the reveal.

Vote Eaglefan

so your saying they just forgot to scan someone? WTF!

[Hannibal Lecter]

well this makes me look bad

So.... do we really belive the wolves failed to get in a kill?

what if (and this is a big if) EF really is the Seer and Danny IS NOT the BG.... but the janitor (scans good) and the BG really did get a block, and hes trying to help out the wolves by dealing with EF now....

yeah thats pretty weak

[Grammaticus]

In that case the bodyguard may actually want to out Danny as a BG trade for a wolf is a good bet when the seer is already outed.

I'm going with the current data on the table

Vote EagleFan

[Barkeep49]

The KISS version of events does suggest that Danny is the BG and blocked a wolf kill by "protecting" EF.

Vote EF

It's funny because I found Danny to be a completely plausible choice of a scan for EF, since the seer being able to safely communicate with his roommate is a big plus.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, next thought on the in-game mechanics and how they play out:

What would you do if you were a wolf and your villager roommate had a vote? Would you try to bury him, protect him, or ignore it?

My initial thought on this is that it is better to see your roommate voted off than you doing the dirty work, at least early in the game. Sure you have the 100% chance of getting your roommate with the night kill, but if he is voted off it was the "will of the people", not you.

In a case like this, I could see a wolf making a nuetral effort to protect the roommate. It would give the wolf a villager to build a rapport with and potentially influence their vote along the way.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

well this makes me look bad

So.... do we really belive the wolves failed to get in a kill?

what if (and this is a big if) EF really is the Seer and Danny IS NOT the BG.... but the janitor (scans good) and the BG really did get a block, and hes trying to help out the wolves by dealing with EF now....

yeah thats pretty weak

I think whats being said is EF was going to make a kill and couldn't because Danny was watching over him.

Which really makes sense with the PM discussion. How else did Eagle know he was the BG and how he was guarded? I have to believe if Danny successfully protected someone he would have been notified. On the flipside I could see him not if he just watched a wolf all night who couldn't transform because of it.

It comes down to whether you think Danny could be lying about the PMs. He had zero suspicion on him and he'd be done if he lynch a villager tonight, so why would he jump out so early?

Also, that seer reveal by Eagle yesterday was just sooooo weak .

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

well this makes me look bad

So.... do we really belive the wolves failed to get in a kill?

what if (and this is a big if) EF really is the Seer and Danny IS NOT the BG.... but the janitor (scans good) and the BG really did get a block, and hes trying to help out the wolves by dealing with EF now....

yeah thats pretty weak

If that was the case, it would be a bad move. If EF was good, he would be dead tonight anyway and I would be risking myself without much to gain at this point. If there was a wolf on the line or something, it would make sense, but not at this point.

Also, check out my first post, I almost didn't send it, but being who my roommate was I got away with the hint to my role.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I think whats being said is EF was going to make a kill and couldn't because Danny was watching over him.

Which really makes sense with the PM discussion. How else did Eagle know he was the BG and how he was guarded? I have to believe if Danny successfully protected someone he would have been notified. On the flipside I could see him not if he just watched a wolf all night who couldn't transform because of it.

It comes down to whether you think Danny could be lying about the PMs. He had zero suspicion on him and he'd be done if he lynch a villager tonight, so why would he jump out so early?

Also, that seer reveal by Eagle yesterday was just sooooo weak .

Exactly right

Plus there would be a real bodyguard out there to catch me which isn't going to happen since I am the BG and a wolf isn't going to come out to try and refute me as they would just be making a 1 for 1.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

In a case like this, I could see a wolf making a nuetral effort to protect the roommate. It would give the wolf a villager to build a rapport with and potentially influence their vote along the way.

And it actually tended to work for him too, there's just too much evidence against him

[Barkeep49]

Whether or not it's in play here, I think have the BG block a wolf kill is an underutilized mechanic and one that's nice for balancing things out when they appear to be slightly in favor of the wolves. I need to remember this for future use.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The KISS version of events does suggest that Danny is the BG and blocked a wolf kill by "protecting" EF.

Vote EF

It's funny because I found Danny to be a completely plausible choice of a scan for EF, since the seer being able to safely communicate with his roommate is a big plus.

but he says he didnt block anything....

[jeff061]

Last time I played there was no single wolf attack, it was a group attack.

I'm getting used to that change.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I think whats being said is EF was going to make a kill and couldn't because Danny was watching over him.

.

oooo ic ic, not this makes a bit of sense... but wouldnt they know that and have someone else make the kill? hhmm

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

but he says he didnt block anything....

That because he didn't. He guarded an attacking wolf who could not do anything because of it. There was no block.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

oooo ic ic, not this makes a bit of sense... but wouldnt they know that and have someone else make the kill? hhmm

Yes, I thought the same thing. But going to have to let that one go I think.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

oooo ic ic, not this makes a bit of sense... but wouldnt they know that and have someone else make the kill? hhmm

Both on here and in PM, I tended to try and convince EF that the BG likely didn't see his reveal and wouldn't be able to guard him, plus I could see a wolf overlooking this even if he did believe he was being guarded.

[jeff061]

By the way, on the slim chance Danny is lying I think the actual BG should out himself. Any disagrees?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeff061

By the way, on the slim chance Danny is lying I think the actual BG should out himself. Any disagrees?

If I was lying, the BG would be smart to out himself. it would mean he could still guard himself and they would be avoiding lynching the seer and instead lynching me.

[Barkeep49]

I would agree the good play. would be for the real BG to reveal were Danny lying

[Barkeep49]

Dola - For precisely the reasons Danny mentions.

[DaddyTorgo]

well seems like a pretty cut an dried morning. In the absence of anything else - great job Danny!

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[hoopsguy]

Here is a vote log from yesterday, including unvotes. I'll be back a little later to throw out some analysis on it, but I would love to see others take a crack at it in the meantime.


Post #47 - Chief votes for Danny
Post #49 - Barkeep votes for Jackal
Post #51 - RPI votes for Gramm
Post #74 - Jonathan votes Hannibal
Post #76 - EagleFan votes ChiefRum
Post #79 - Heinz votes EagleFan
Post #86 - Abe votes EagleFan
Post #96 - Hannibal votes RPI
Post #98 - Hannibal unvotes RPI, votes Gramm
Post #103 - Jonathan unvotes Hannibal, votes Jackal
Post #109 - Jeff votes EagleFan
Post #135 - Jackal votes EagleFan
Post #147 - Telle votes Jackal
Post #164 - EagleFan unvotes Chief, votes Jackal
Post #182 - Danny votes Gramm
Post #189 - DT votes EagleFan
Post #194 - Danny unvotes Gramm, votes Jackal
Post #196 - Hoops votes EagleFan
Post #229 - Hannibal unvotes Gramm, votes Jackal

[Hannibal Lecter]

vote EF
vote nightfall
vote ketchup porn

[Danny]

Abe and Jeff have to be looking better after putting the 2nd and 3rd votes on EF as does Heinz for coming out against him so strong.

Some flags have to be raised at Telle and Jonathan, especially Telle I think. And then of course Hannibal for that last second switch, but I'm not ready to hang him yet for that.

[jeff061]

And then of course Hannibal for that last second switch, but I'm not ready to hang him yet for that.

Agree, its something, but I'm hoping for something more concrete to take shape. We have more than enough time.

[Danny]

If I had to pick one now, I'd consider Telle, I thought her reasoning of voting Jackal was a bit weird as Jackal's vote for EF made complete sense given his situation.

[RPI-Fan]

I don't really see the need to pile on right now, so I'm going to hold off at the moment.

[EagleFan]

WTF? So now we target the seer and the BG outs himself? Hell, if the village is going to be that stupid we deservce to lose. No attack against me makes sense if they thought I was being guarded. For all we know they found the convert or got screwed up by the deadline confusion (there were more that one person thinking it was a 10 PM EST deadline, read the posts).

I don't think I've ever seen a game played this poorly by the village.


If I was a wolf why would I reveal as seer and then perform a night attack to put myself at risk of being found? I was the one who revealed and was on prior to the deadline so the "maybe the orders were issued early" doesn't hold any water. So basically by the end of day 2 we are going to have a lynched seer, an outed BG and the possibility of a converted janitor already. Talk about playing from behind the 8 ball.

[Danny]

Nothing in the rules about a convert

[jeff061]

Oh shut it. If there is a another BG we'll know wolfie .

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

Nothing in the rules about a convert

Isn't the janitor the convert? Or is it just a traitor role?

Either way we're screwed now.

vote jeheinz

Can't even do a revenge vote since the one coming after me is the only one that I know is on my own team.

[Hannibal Lecter]

ok, so its implausible, but what is your explanation?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Isn't the janitor the convert? Or is it just a traitor role?

Either way we're screwed now.

vote jeheinz

Can't even do a revenge vote since the one coming after me is the only one that I know is on my own team.

Just the traitor role. The only other explanation for this is the wolves didn't send in a kill, that's very unlikely.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Danny

If I had to pick one now, I'd consider Telle, I thought her reasoning of voting Jackal was a bit weird as Jackal's vote for EF made complete sense given his situation.

At the time, voting for EagleFan would have been a pile-on. So that meant either The Jackal or Grammaticus. I had no particular reason to vote for Grammaticus, and only the tiniest of reason to go with The Jackal, so that's where I went.

[Danny]

BTW, let's just say EF is telling the truth and the wolves simply got the deadline mixed up, we still know a whole lot from that. It would pretty much put CR and Gram, those who admitted not knowing the deadline in great suspicion and probably clear people like Jeff, Jonathan, and Hannibal who were clearly around at deadline and could have sent in a kill order.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Abe and Jeff have to be looking better after putting the 2nd and 3rd votes on EF as does Heinz for coming out against him so strong.

Some flags have to be raised at Telle and Jonathan, especially Telle I think. And then of course Hannibal for that last second switch, but I'm not ready to hang him yet for that.

I disagree. I think wolves frequently hide in places like the 2nd and 3rd vote.

[Telle]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

Are we doing nightfall?

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I disagree. I think wolves frequently hide in places like the 2nd and 3rd vote.

Agreed to be honest. Thats why I jumped out on Hannibal last night, didn't want to be late again for this reason.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Danny

BTW, let's just say EF is telling the truth and the wolves simply got the deadline mixed up, we still know a whole lot from that. It would pretty much put CR and Gram, those who admitted not knowing the deadline in great suspicion and probably clear people like Jeff, Jonathan, and Hannibal who were clearly around at deadline and could have sent in a kill order.

Also worth keeping in mind even if he is the seer he is dead tonight. Period. Either way we are not getting another view from EF.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Also worth keeping in mind even if he is the seer he is dead tonight. Period. Either way we are not getting another view from EF.

This is also true and while I'll put nightfall on the table as well in case others want to.

Vote Nightfall

[jeff061]

Whats nightfall, a hurried up deadline?

[jeheinz72]

Wow, really people? We're at the point now where play has devolved to where we believe a baseless Day One Seer reveal? LIke...seriously?!?! C'mon now.

I friggin KNEW I had you EF. You shouldn't have engaged me and I might've doubted it after a spell.


Vote Eagle Fan
Vote Night Fall

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Isn't the janitor the convert? Or is it just a traitor role?

Either way we're screwed now.

vote jeheinz

Can't even do a revenge vote since the one coming after me is the only one that I know is on my own team.

This makes me laugh.

Sorry I sunk your battleship so early bro. But it was fun yesterday!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Whats nightfall, a hurried up deadline?

Yes. Basically ends the day early.

[jeff061]

Ah. going to give it a few more hours I think.

[Lathum]

I don't see a reason for nightfall unless we were going to try and sneak in a day 3 somewhere. Otherwise it just stretchs the weekend even longer.

I can do that if you all want to, but I'm not sure it's fair since this place tends to clear out around 3:00 on Friday afternoon.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is a vote log from yesterday, including unvotes. I'll be back a little later to throw out some analysis on it, but I would love to see others take a crack at it in the meantime.


Post #47 - Chief votes for Danny (1)
Post #49 - Barkeep votes for Jackal (1-1)
Post #51 - RPI votes for Gramm (1-1-1)
Post #74 - Jonathan votes Hannibal (1-1-1-1)
Post #76 - EagleFan votes ChiefRum (1-1-1-1-1)
Post #79 - Heinz votes EagleFan (1-1-1-1-1-1)
Post #86 - Abe votes EagleFan (2-1-1-1-1-1)
Post #96 - Hannibal votes RPI
Post #98 - Hannibal unvotes RPI, votes Gramm (2-2-1-1-1-1)
Post #103 - Jonathan unvotes Hannibal, votes Jackal (2-2-2-1-1)
Post #109 - Jeff votes EagleFan (3-2-2-1-1)
Post #135 - Jackal votes EagleFan (4-2-2-1-1)
Post #147 - Telle votes Jackal (4-3-2-1-1)
Post #164 - EagleFan unvotes Chief, votes Jackal (4-4-2-1)
Post #182 - Danny votes Gramm (4-4-3-1)
Post #189 - DT votes EagleFan (5-4-3-1)
Post #194 - Danny unvotes Gramm, votes Jackal (5-5-2-1)
Post #196 - Hoops votes EagleFan (6-5-2-1)
Post #229 - Hannibal unvotes Gramm, votes Jacka (6-6-2-1)l

The bolding and the parends are mine.

The bolds are the votes I find the most suspicious. Which in a way is funny, since Danny has two of them. Of course, we'll know if Danny is on the level once EF is lynched (more or less), so I'm taking those more as him protecting his roomate than protecting a wolf of course (see, hence why heinzy no protecty someone he knows nothing about).

That leaves Telle's vote. Tough to say really how suspicious that one is. I mean I can see not wanting to make it 5-2-2 in order to keep discussion alive and the vote relevnt

Hannibal's vote was a terrible idea. I mean besides the horrid decision to trust a transparent seer reveal, it's a tough vote to swallow. I lean misguided villager moreso than wolf on it though. You'd have to be an awfully ballsy wolf to make such a blatant save such as that.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't see a reason for nightfall unless we were going to try and sneak in a day 3 somewhere. Otherwise it just stretchs the weekend even longer.

I can do that if you all want to, but I'm not sure it's fair since this place tends to clear out around 3:00 on Friday afternoon.

I know I'd rather see us clear the Day Two wait and move onto the next relevant vote sooner rather than later. Even if it means Day Three is going to be one long-ass day, that is a good thing for the village (which may be a reason you don't deem it fair to do).

I mean close the book on EF, good or the apparent bad.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

The bolding and the parends are mine.

The bolds are the votes I find the most suspicious. Which in a way is funny, since Danny has two of them. Of course, we'll know if Danny is on the level once EF is lynched (more or less), so I'm taking those more as him protecting his roomate than protecting a wolf of course (see, hence why heinzy no protecty someone he knows nothing about).

That leaves Telle's vote. Tough to say really how suspicious that one is. I mean I can see not wanting to make it 5-2-2 in order to keep discussion alive and the vote relevnt

Hannibal's vote was a terrible idea. I mean besides the horrid decision to trust a transparent seer reveal, it's a tough vote to swallow. I lean misguided villager moreso than wolf on it though. You'd have to be an awfully ballsy wolf to make such a blatant save such as that.

So I guess what I'm really saying here, is I think the other wolf(ves) did a good job not taking the bait of saving EF.