Werewolf LXXXII - Cops and Robbers (Day 3 Deadline 4 PM EST Thursday)

[saldana]

wow...i put the nail in the wolf's coffin and end up getting measured for my own.

I cant really answer to anything that is being said about me at this point, because I can actually see the logic behind it.

that said, i am going to vote lathum, and here's why...he is a great wolf...his arch enemy got night killed....everyone would assume he is too good a wolf to do something so obvious....the then calls out the obviousness of it.


that, and i am pretty much backed into a corner and have to vote in self defense...fortunately, I dont feel like this is a wasted vote to save myself.
vote lathum

[path12]

I've only been able to read quickly, but first of all want to apologize if I got defensive last night -- it was really a shitty day and I think I overreacted. Not the first nor last time I suppose.

Anyway, looking over Narc's and others points and thinking it over last night, saldana's late switch seems most suspicious to me. I don't necessarily see the Eaglefan argument and though Lathum seems touchy, it's not all that out of character for him. I always have trouble reading Lathum anyway, so I'll just continue to watch that for now.

VOTE SALDANA

Will be back when I can. 24 emails in the 90 minutes I've been at work. Sigh.

[Alan T]

6-4-2 Saldana leading over Lathum, plus Lathum's vote is on a third party right now. Both Sal and Lathum are on my list of possible vote choices anyhows, so I guess I'll just keep things closer. Since Lathum can move his vote anyhows, this seems a fairly done deal. I'm not terribly upset though as I don't think Saldana is necessarily a bad choice for a lynch today.

Vote Lathum

[jeheinz72]

Vote Count as I have it

Saldana 6: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302)

Lathum 5: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303)

EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)

No vote: SnDvls

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

As you can ssee Alan you are incorrect.

Sndvls suggested Renders killing may be a set up before I mentioned anything, it was after that when I said I think it was me who was being set up. I also said it may just be me being paranoid.

You should also add in the fact that I rairly buy the set up mode too...my next post in that sequence.

[SnDvls]

Vote Saldana

Narc's argument is strongest out there to me.

[claphamsa]

some days I really really hate my job

[jeheinz72]

Saldana 7: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302), SnDSvls (306)

Lathum 5: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303)

EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Are you suggesting that this would be a case of Lathum being a wolf, having a history with Render, making the kill on Render and assuming people would make that connection, thus tried to beat people to the punch by making that suggestion to try to discredit it? The only flaw in his plan is that no one ever made that leap that he expected and had planned for?

I am suggesting that barring other considerations, players might make a kill as "revenge" (like D1 votes). Whether he was accused or not was irrelevant, as if he was he would offer the "we've got history" rationale he's currently been offering.

[Barkeep49]

While on one level I understand why people are voting for saldana, on another it's completely baffling. I really think that this idea that voting FOR a wolf makes you suspicious is perverse. We've seen times where wolves act like that, but to think it every time we find a wolf, as it seems to have happened, creates weird incentives.

Also, I want to make clear that I've made a case against Lathum. But it's a Day 2 case. On a scale of 1-10, it's about a 5 or 6 in terms of suspicion. This just happens, being Day 2, to be higher than others.

[saldana]

ok, guess i gotta air it out...unfortunately, work has kept me from being able to do it sooner


I'm The Boy.

i tried to follow lathum last night and didnt see anything of consequence

thats all i got for now...probably little chance of being saved by this at this point, since i am sure most people wont believe me.

go customers

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

While on one level I understand why people are voting for saldana, on another it's completely baffling. I really think that this idea that voting FOR a wolf makes you suspicious is perverse. We've seen times where wolves act like that, but to think it every time we find a wolf, as it seems to have happened, creates weird incentives.

Also, I want to make clear that I've made a case against Lathum. But it's a Day 2 case. On a scale of 1-10, it's about a 5 or 6 in terms of suspicion. This just happens, being Day 2, to be higher than others.

Bk, I think the case against Saldana, or at least my case against Saldana is more when and how he voted than who he voted for.

Sal originally pushed Render up in the vote count 4-3 over Claphamsa earlier in the day. He was around throughout the time after that vote based on his interaction in the thread, but it was only once Path placed his vote on PurdueBrad, and there was 30 minutes left that things seemed fairly locked up as a PB lynch (barring any odd day 1 late movement for some unknown reason) that Saldana moved his vote to PB.

Saldana's vote for PB did not effect the final lynch other than being a "cushion" vote, but when he made the vote, his reasoning for it didn't really make any sense, to which he afterwards stated he was mixed up on who was leading which is why his comment seemed to make no sense.

So really Saldana doesn't gain too much trust voting for a condemned man, and his reasoning for the vote didn't buy any extra trust either. I'm not currently voting for Saldana, but that mostly is because I always find him suspsicious, and this game may be the same for me. I totally can understand why others would vote for him though.

[saldana]

from my pm, it does not appear that I was able to see everything he did all night.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

ok, guess i gotta air it out...unfortunately, work has kept me from being able to do it sooner


I'm The Boy.

i tried to follow lathum last night and didnt see anything of consequence

thats all i got for now...probably little chance of being saved by this at this point, since i am sure most people wont believe me.

go customers

Sal, is your ability 100%, so by following Lathum, it is clear he didn't have any part in Render's death last night?

[saldana]

it says i did my best to follow him..i got from that, that it was not 100%

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

it says i did my best to follow him..i got from that, that it was not 100%

Just curious, because the rules said that there is "a chance" of determining if someone did something by following them for your role. I know even though I'm just a customer, my PM pretty much was cut and paste from the rules from what I saw, so figured yours would be to some extent.

Obviously if you are telling the truth, it would be bad to lose you, but then the next person to get it would be Lathum whom you said you followed and there is a chance he didn't kill Render, which would probability wise drop him a little bit in the chance of being a wolf.

[The Jackal]

Interesting. Since it doesn't look like there's any steam on EF, I'll put some pressure on Lathum here and see if those of you on sal believe the boy reveal.

unvote EF

vote lathum

[SnDvls]

anyone else out there willing to move?

I'd be willing but if I'm the only one Lathum is the tie breaker

[SnDvls]

unvote Saldana
vote lathum

here goes nothing

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just curious, because the rules said that there is "a chance" of determining if someone did something by following them for your role. I know even though I'm just a customer, my PM pretty much was cut and paste from the rules from what I saw, so figured yours would be to some extent.

Obviously if you are telling the truth, it would be bad to lose you, but then the next person to get it would be Lathum whom you said you followed and there is a chance he didn't kill Render, which would probability wise drop him a little bit in the chance of being a wolf.

and from the PM i got, "the chance" of finding out if they did something manifested itself in my ability to follow him all night.

as far as your second point, the robbers have to name their killer each night, so the fact that lathum may not have actually killed render is not entirely vindicating.

[saldana]

dola to alan's point

Originally Posted by the rules, post 1

Each night the Robbers will confer and submit one player they want to attack, and which Robber(s) will be committing the assault.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

and from the PM i got, "the chance" of finding out if they did something manifested itself in my ability to follow him all night.

as far as your second point, the robbers have to name their killer each night, so the fact that lathum may not have actually killed render is not entirely vindicating.

That doesn't really mesh with the rules. The rules state that multiple robbers can attack every night, just they can only attack one person each night. Unless you know something that I don't know.

[saldana]

i gotta go to a meeting, so i am out until after the lynch...hopefullly i will still be alive, and someone will protect me tonight, since i cant do much as an 11 year old

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola to alan's point

If the robbers supposedly didn't take any money last night based on the night writeup from jeheinz, I guess my belief was that they doubled up on the night kill. Which is why I think this line of questioning is pretty valid.

[saldana]

alan, see my post above yours

[The Jackal]

I assume what sal is saying is that Lathum could be bad and could've just been trying to steal money and not been involved in the kill. Wonder if they boy would witness someone stealing money, that might be a little overpowered.

[The Jackal]

But you're probably right that they doubled up on the kill, Alan, which makes me skeptical about having Lathum be the lynchee. Can we have a run on EF?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I assume what sal is saying is that Lathum could be bad and could've just been trying to steal money and not been involved in the kill. Wonder if they boy would witness someone stealing money, that might be a little overpowered.

I have no idea what the boy can or can't witness, but it does seem that it is not 100% which Saldana also suggests from his posts. I guess my interpretation of the rules is that every player in this game gets a night action, regardless of robbers or customers or other roles. I don't see robbers just sitting around doing nothing, and since I was led to believe that no money was stolen and no one reported stopping anyone from stealing money, that they teamed up for a kill.. So if Saldana is telling the truth about being the boy, and telling the truth about following Lathum, and telling the truth that he didn't see Lathum do much.. it makes me wonder about Lathum being bad.

That said, I think normally Lathum would be someone that Saldana would have normally chosen if he had a special role, that seems consistant for him. I also think Lathum would be a poor choice to lie about having followed if he wasn't telling the truth due to the same reason as my line of questioning just now..

So I'm starting to feel ok with Saldana's reveal, but I'm not really in any situation to do anything to help him because my vote already was not on him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

But you're probably right that they doubled up on the kill, Alan, which makes me skeptical about having Lathum be the lynchee. Can we have a run on EF?

At this point, with so few people around, I don't see that happening.. So if I had to choose, I'd rather lose a plain vanilla villager (if that is what Lathum is), than lose a witness role (if that is what Saldana is).. so even though I'm now second guessing both of those choices, I'd rather see Lathum get lynched than Saldana.

[jeheinz72]

Lathum 7: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303), Jackal (317), SnDvls (319

Saldana 6: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302), SnDSvls (306)

EagleFan 1: Lathum (238)

[The Jackal]

FWIW Alan, I doubt anyone that protects the money gets a PM if they were successful - from what I remember from the previous game, if money gets stolen we all find out the next day. I could be wrong, just posturing.

[EagleFan]

Another line of thinking, does the boy only witness the stealing of money and not the kill?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Lathum 7: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303), Jackal (317), SnDvls (319

Saldana 6: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302), SnDSvls (306)

EagleFan 1: Lathum (238)

vote count is correct, but you have me listed twice

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Another line of thinking, does the boy only witness the stealing of money and not the kill?

I think it's the exact opposite. The boy would witness a kill, not sure if they'd witness someone stealing money. But like Alan has said, it's a percentage thing, not always accurate.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

FWIW Alan, I doubt anyone that protects the money gets a PM if they were successful - from what I remember from the previous game, if money gets stolen we all find out the next day. I could be wrong, just posturing.

So the last time this game ran, if someone successfully kept someone from stealing the money, there was never any notification of this interaction? The only note was that no money had been stolen from the bank the previous night (like what we heard on night 1) ?

[The Jackal]

Actually, in reading the boy's role, heinz leaves it open to the boy being able to see someone stealing money. "a chance to see what they are up to" is pretty general.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I think it's the exact opposite. The boy would witness a kill, not sure if they'd witness someone stealing money. But like Alan has said, it's a percentage thing, not always accurate.

The rules has it listed fairly vaguely saying "See what they are up to", but that makes me think watch any action, just with a chance of success/failure each night.

[EagleFan]

Here's to hoping his reveal is not fake. I actually tend to believe it as he seemed to answer the questions about his PM quite well (or at least did his homework).

unvote saldana

vote Lathum

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So the last time this game ran, if someone successfully kept someone from stealing the money, there was never any notification of this interaction? The only note was that no money had been stolen from the bank the previous night (like what we heard on night 1) ?

I don't think it works like that straight up. I think if the robbers attempt to steal money, the amount they get depends on how many people are protecting it.

[The Jackal]

If they are able to steal any money one of these nights, we can hear from people that happened to be protecting it and see if they got PMs.

[jeheinz72]

Lathum 8: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303), Jackal (317), SnDvls (319), Lathum (338)

Saldana 5: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302),

EagleFan 1: Lathum (238)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't think it works like that straight up. I think if the robbers attempt to steal money, the amount they get depends on how many people are protecting it.

So if they choose to steal money, they'll always get money but the amount depends on how many people protect it?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So if they choose to steal money, they'll always get money but the amount depends on how many people protect it?

That is my understanding of it. I don't know if they are assured of money though, I'd imagine if there are enough people protecting it that the robbers would be repelled.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That is my understanding of it. I don't know if they are assured of money though, I'd imagine if there are enough people protecting it that the robbers would be repelled.

Hmm.. well if that carries over to this game, then that only furthers my belief that they didn't try for money and they tried for the kill last night then.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hmm.. well if that carries over to this game, then that only furthers my belief that they didn't try for money and they tried for the kill last night then.

I'd tend to agree with you. I for one was protecting the money and received no sort of PM, but we'll get more information as we get more nights of activity.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'd tend to agree with you. I for one was protecting the money and received no sort of PM, but we'll get more information as we get more nights of activity.

I actually was going to protect the money yesterday but changed my mind last minute after we lucked out with PurdueBrad. I wasn't sure if they would target me for that or not and guarded myself. I actually confused jeheinz with my PM that he had to ask for clarification of which action I actually was asking to do.

[EagleFan]

Looking at a few things:

SNDvls - unvote Render, vote Clap (119) 4-4-3-2-1 (clap tied with Render)
Packer - unvote clap, vote Purdue (122) 4-4-3-2-1 (PB tied with Render)
clap - unvote Jackal, vote Purdue (125) 5-4-3-1-1


This tells me that Packer and clap lean on the good side. With clap and RendeR tied (one a known non-wolf) why would Packer switch from clap to PB if all three were wolves? Then why would clap vote PB to break the tie between RendeR and PB?

Probably not explaining my thoughts properly at the moment as I am being quick about it but that jumped out at me when I read the chain of events. Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I haven't read everything all the way through yet.

[jeheinz72]

deadline

[The Jackal]

Always good to throw thoughts out there EF.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hmm.. well if that carries over to this game, then that only furthers my belief that they didn't try for money and they tried for the kill last night then.

I think we're all pretty certain they tried for the kill last night and I think RendeR can vouch for that.