WW LXXXVI - The Charmed Ones (Game Over - Innocents Win)

[Chubby]

I'm headed to work now (until 4pm EST). There's one person I'll be watching closely and most likely be putting my vote on when I get home pending any revelations thru the day.

[hoopsguy]

Twiddles thumbs while waiting for people to show up and post.

[PackerFanatic]

Very nice to see we got the Source, and nice to know that CR was telling the truth. I think we have a lot to go sift through for a decent vote tonight.

[jeheinz72]

I'm here, sucks about the brutal but at least we got a wolf.

I'd echo the strange kill on Danny, I figured he'd get some heat today.

I figure I'll get some, and that's ok, I hope I was scanned frankly. Big vote today, I have to look at voting history big time for today. I'd think I'd get a small bit of favor for putting the nail in BK's coffin, but it appears to not be the case.

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, since you are around and someone who is usually kind of chatty ... what do you think about Lathum and RendeR at this point?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

Day 1

Barkeep votes Hannibal (#79)
The Jackal votes Hannibal (#83)
Hannibal votes Barkeep (#86)
Danny votes Lathum (#96)
Packer Fanatic votes Chief Rum (#97)
Lathum votes Hannibal (#101) - went from 2-1-1-1 to 3-1-1-1
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#109)
Render votes Chief Rum (#111) - went from 3-2-1-1 to 3-3-1-1
Hannibal unvotes BK abd votes Lathum (#118)
Chubby votes jeheinz (133)
Chubby unvotes jeheinz and votes Chief Rum (138)
Danny unvotes Lathum and votes Hannibal (140)
Hannibal unvotes Lathum and votes CR (146)
Hoopsguy votes Hannibal (152)
Chief Rum votes Hannibal Lecter (166)

Day 2


Chief Rum votes Barkeep (#210)
Danny votes Barkeep (#213)
Barkeep votes Chief Rum (#214)
Packer Fanatic votes Barkeep (#219)
Chubby votes Barkeep (#225)
jeheinz votes Chief Rum (#240)
Hoopsguy votes Chief Rum (#244)
Lathum votes Chief Rum (#245) - From 4-3 to 4-4
Render votes Chief Rum (#246) - From 4-4 to 5-4
jackal votes Barkeep (#255)
Danny unvotes Barkeep and votes Chief Rum (#261)
Hoopsguy unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#264)
Danny unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#269)
jeheinz unvotes Chief Rum and votes Barkeep (#272)

Bolding mine.

I'd say I'm very confident that one of the two is a wolf. Not only does pure odds suggest it as I know I'm good and I'm pretty positive you're good but those votes are pretty meaningful votes.

Looking at Lathum's we had a group of 4 people with a vote on them, a confirmed wolf, 2 confirmed villagers and himself. I think it's a reasonable vote given the timing and the purported reason for it (though that reasoning of course works if he's a Villager or Wolf).

His 2nd vote is probably more interesting. The vote was 4-2 for a long while and then Snap, Crackle, Pop it's now 5-4. Granted your vote in there was changed and explained. He was the first in the sequence and I think if I'm a villager in that spot, I make the same decision. Putting it at 4-4 would just naturally lend itself to getting more out of the days discussion than had he made it 5-3. Of course if he's a wolf it makes sense since he's helping his pal out and making it a game again.


Looking at RendeR's votes. Day One he ties it up, and admits to just wanting a tie and to see what shakes. Makes some sense as a villager of course, to see where votes go after. Makes perfect sense as a wolf since they wouldn't really care as it's villager-villager and he avoids giving a villager a dreaded 2-vote lead.

Day Two he breaks the tie voting for the villager in the showdown.


I'd say looking at votes and actions I believe one of the two to be a wolf and it's more likely to be RendeR.

[jeheinz72]

FTR, in that 2nd to last paragraph I could've sworn it I had typed

Day Two he breaks the tie voting for the villager in the showdown. Enough Said.

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, you are seeing pretty much what I saw - that these guys ended up voting in tandem, close together each day. Honestly, I think we have one wolf here and one villager but I'm not sure which is which.

I'll go ahead and vote for RendeR for now, because I think there is slightly less chance of him having been scanned at this point. Lathum, by virtue of being "the world's greatest wolf" seems a little more likely of the two to have been scanned by now.

VOTE RENDER

[jeheinz72]

Well that's good, here I thought I was one of your top untrusted. I've basically already laid my case, I might as well do this now

Vote RendeR

[PackerFanatic]

That is some pretty good analysis, and pretty much what I was seeing too. I am still intrigued by Jackal's voting, but not enough to pursue anything against him (I could see a reason why a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf - Barkeep - if he knew he was brutal and would be likely to die anyway) I am going to wait a little to see if Render has any defense, but my vote will likely go there.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well that's good, here I thought I was one of your top untrusted.

You are, but that shrinks up quite a bit if RendeR = wolf. I'm more than willing to pursue this line of thought for today and re-assess tomorrow based on the results.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

That is some pretty good analysis, and pretty much what I was seeing too. I am still intrigued by Jackal's voting, but not enough to pursue anything against him (I could see a reason why a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf - Barkeep - if he knew he was brutal and would be likely to die anyway) I am going to wait a little to see if Render has any defense, but my vote will likely go there.

Jackal is definitely down my list a bit, I still don't get his hop to make it 2-0 on Hannibal so early.

But I like his vote from yesterday. He put the wolf back to a tie. Brutal or not, that's a solid vote.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

You are, but that shrinks up quite a bit if RendeR = wolf. I'm more than willing to pursue this line of thought for today and re-assess tomorrow based on the results.

Fair enough. Put up or shut up sounds like a reasonable enough deal at this juncture.

[The Jackal]

Interesting, I'll reserve judgement for a bit like I did yesterday, worked out well that time.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Jackal is definitely down my list a bit, I still don't get his hop to make it 2-0 on Hannibal so early.

I'll take some heat later on if I must, but it was merely an early vote. Hopefully I nail a wolf with my vote today so you'll all continue to near-trust me.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'll take some heat later on if I must, but it was merely an early vote. Hopefully I nail a wolf with my vote today so you'll all continue to near-trust me.

Yeah, like I said, you're down the list for sure. Just seemed strange to go 1-2 so early without really anything to go on.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, like I said, you're down the list for sure. Just seemed strange to go 1-2 so early without really anything to go on.

Yeah, I dislike voting day one. It was just to stir the pot, unfortunately it was a vote allied with the brutal wolf's.

[Lathum]

Just waking up.

I figured I would get some heat for voting a villager 2 days in a row.

Day one I felt I needed to put some distance between myself and HL. Anyone who says there was enough time left for things to change when I made it 3-1 can kiss my rear. I was the 6th person of 11 to vote, putting us past the halfway point. People don't change their day 1 votes often, so I needed to take myself out of the running, also Render hadn't voted yet, and he has a day 1 hard on for me.

Day 2 I think I was pretty clear I wanted a tie. or at least the possibility. I went to class after my vote, came home and played WoW with Saldana. By the time I could have changed my vote to BK it wouldn't have mattered anyway and would have looked worse. FWIW I did mention earlier in the day I think BK is the way to go.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Just waking up.

I figured I would get some heat for voting a villager 2 days in a row.

Day one I felt I needed to put some distance between myself and HL. Anyone who says there was enough time left for things to change when I made it 3-1 can kiss my rear. I was the 6th person of 11 to vote, putting us past the halfway point. People don't change their day 1 votes often, so I needed to take myself out of the running, also Render hadn't voted yet, and he has a day 1 hard on for me.

Day 2 I think I was pretty clear I wanted a tie. or at least the possibility. I went to class after my vote, came home and played WOW with Saldana. By the time I could have changed my vote to BK it wouldn't have mattered anyway and would have looked worse. FWIW I did mention earlier in the day I think BK is the way to go.

Got a post #?

[Lathum]

I think we need to take a close look at Heinze, especialy based on his actions from today.

You look at the way voting shook down. Day 1 he votes CR, making it look like he doesn't want a runaway.

Day 2 votes CR, making it 4-2, keeping it from turning into a total runaway. If he votes BK there it is 5-1 and people prety much give BK up for dead. Instead he makes it a 2 vote swing, at least giving people who doubt CR's story a hope BK could live.


Now to today. It's pretty obvious me, Render and Heinze are going to be looked at. I know I am good so lets say they are both bad, Heinze throws Render under the bus to make himself look good, Render buys it today then I buy it tomorrow becuase Heinze has added trust.

It's their only play, they can't both vote me, because when I come back innocent, they both go down 1-2.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Got a post #?

Originally Posted by Lathum

this should say with, not for. Meaning why not vote BK.

here ya go!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we need to take a close look at Heinze, especialy based on his actions from today.

You look at the way voting shook down. Day 1 he votes CR, making it look like he doesn't want a runaway.

Day 2 votes CR, making it 4-2, keeping it from turning into a total runaway. If he votes BK there it is 5-1 and people prety much give BK up for dead. Instead he makes it a 2 vote swing, at least giving people who doubt CR's story a hope BK could live.


Now to today. It's pretty obvious me, Render and Heinze are going to be looked at. I know I am good so lets say they are both bad, Heinze throws Render under the bus to make himself look good, Render buys it today then I buy it tomorrow becuase Heinze has added trust.

It's their only play, they can't both vote me, because when I come back innocent, they both go down 1-2.

Understandable. I don't pretend to think I don't deserve a look today. No doubt.

Hoops asked me a pointed question though about you two, and I answered with my honest opinion. I don't know any other way to play a vanilla other than honest. It's like Rule #1A of being a vanilla. Not sure how you'd rather I'd of answered really...

And for the record, I don't know if I think that BOTH you and RendeR could be wolves. I think if we're looking at a starting group of wolves of you, BK and RendeR, that the 3 of you are much much smarter than to give up so much trust-capital in the first two days. If RendeR bites it and is a wolf, I'd almost say I won't be looking to vote you tomorrow

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

here ya go!

Thanks (I was lazy)

[jeheinz72]

As far as my votes, I'll give my reasoning, only fair.

Day One.
I wasn't a big fan (as I've stated) of the 1-2 on Hannibal. Not enough to (at the time) think of going down the road of voting BK/Jackal for it, but I basically decided that I'd pass on following them with a vote on HL or voting BK for doing it (Jackal wasn't an option as I didn't want a whole new candidate). That left my options as you or Chief as people who I'd consider. I chose Chief more or less on gut at the time. I was pretty well in agreeance with your reasoning for your vote (I had asked you directly)

Day Two
It was 4-1. I still had an incorrect hunch on CR from Day One. I probably got a bit caught up in sticking to my Day One vote and took the facts of the reveal and tried to apply them to it. Frankly, the main reason I flipped was that hoops did. Not because of the vote count that made it, but because going into Day Two I was getting a good vibe off of hoops being a villager. I'd think putting the icing on the cake and removing hopes of any tie shenanigans would at least get me a slight tick towards favorable.

[Lathum]

Vote JeHeinze


2 quick votes for Render and I would rather this didn't turn into a runaway.

[EagleFan]

As of post 325:

RendeR 2 - hoopsguy (309), jeheinz72 (309)
jeheinz72 1 - Lathum (325)

[EagleFan]

Yet another night trapped inside this nightmare. You do not know what is real anymore and pray that you will open your eyes at some point and this will have all been a dream. Demons, witches, guardian angels... They can't really exist, can they?

Until two days ago you would have laughed at the thought of these things existing. Until two days ago you were blissfully ignorant of true terror. Until two days ago you could close your eyes without seeing horrible sights burned into you mind. Until two days ago you had a band to provide entertainment.

Who can you trust? You could trust Hannibal, Chief and Danny but they are all dead. The bouncer? He killed an evil one. He must be worthy of your trust? Right? But how did he kill such a monster?

Where is the bouncer anyway? He is not in the main room with everyone. You start to look for him...

[The Jackal]

Nice touches with the storyline, EF.

So it looks like we might have a 3-way battle with Lathum, RendeR, and Heinz on our hands.

[hoopsguy]

Well, not much of a three way battle just yet ... only three votes in on two candidates. But the three you mention are the guys that I have either voted for or would consider moving to later today.

[jeheinz72]

FYI, I'm around for another 2-3 hours. I'd hope anyone who is considering voting for me would ask any questions now

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, I'm probably not going to vote for you today unless there is something late-breaking. So far I do not believe we have had everyone check in yet, so I can't make a promise not to vote for you. But I think I have made my thought process for today pretty clear.

So you've got that going for you ... which is nice.

[jeheinz72]

Hey I'll take it!

[hoopsguy]

Pretty quiet day.

[PackerFanatic]

Very quiet day, which is depressing...

I think Heinz is on the straight on narrow and I liked his and Hoops analysis of the Render/Lathum vote situation. So since I don't want to miss the vote tonight...

VOTE RENDER

This is a vote I am more than willing to move if the need arises.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

You are, but that shrinks up quite a bit if RendeR = wolf. I'm more than willing to pursue this line of thought for today and re-assess tomorrow based on the results.

heinz was who I was looking at purely based on his voting record which has already been talked about. I'm not against the above train of thought tho

today vote RendeR, if good tomorrow vote heinz. if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere.


I'm trying to play K.I.S.S. this game (keep it simple stupid) as I think I tend to overthink things in WW. It's worked so far (with BK, thought he was no brainer after CR revealed then had some doubt but also wanted to see if anyone would jump and my questions and ultimately stuck with BK because I thought CRs version was more plausible)

I'm leaning RendeR tonight but want to see what he says before voting.

[EagleFan]

As of post 335:

RendeR 3 - hoopsguy (309), jeheinz72 (309), PackerFanatic (334)
jeheinz72 1 - Lathum (325)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

heinz was who I was looking at purely based on his voting record which has already been talked about. I'm not against the above train of thought tho

today vote RendeR, if good tomorrow vote heinz. if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere.


I'm trying to play K.I.S.S. this game (keep it simple stupid) as I think I tend to overthink things in WW. It's worked so far (with BK, thought he was no brainer after CR revealed then had some doubt but also wanted to see if anyone would jump and my questions and ultimately stuck with BK because I thought CRs version was more plausible)

I'm leaning RendeR tonight but want to see what he says before voting.

I can't say I love being linked to my one analysis today, but I guess I've *earned* that for my votes Days One and Two.

Not for nothing, if RendeR does indeed come up good, I'll have to wonder if this is a set-up post for end-game

[EagleFan]

Screams fill the air. Not again!!! You turn to find the hostess in tears. What has happened? You rush to her side. There is nothing there.

She hesitates and points. Nothing, you see nothing. "Can't you see it?" she screams. "It's right there!"

You look closer, the room grows silent, very silent, too silent. Still nothing. "Near the wall!!! It's right there!!!"

You move closer to the wall. Movement!!! You jump. You look again shaken but you can't hold back a smirk as you crush the spider crawling on the wall.

"You've got to be kidding me." You now feel a bit angry at the drama over a little spider and spin around towards in hasgte. You find yourself face to face with a blank stare swinging in front of you, a blank stare of the bouncer suspended from the ceiling by a cord.

You gasp, overwhelmed, and drop to the ground. You look back up as the rest of the crowd rushes to see if you are okay. As you look up, nothing. No bouncer hanging, just pieces of a spider web which you fell through.

The hostess gives you a puzzled look. "I hate spiders."

[RendeR]

There is nothing worng with Heinz analysis, but it doesn't actually show evidence of wolf-dom. it just shows that I picked a person to vote for day 1, that person was on the line again day 2 and I never changed it.

Flip flopping votes is far worse, IMO than sticking with what you voted and seeing how things fall.

I voted CR on day 1 because he played a great game recently and generally gets a LOT of leeway early in teh voting due to his schedule. I felt it was time to put some pressure there and seeing as my vote tied things up it made for some interesting information as people changed votes and voted after me.

Day 2 we had the reveal, it was CR or BK, I had voted CR day 1 so I went with it. Nothing more, nothing less.

I am not a wolf, Not that my saying so makes any real difference. Lynch me and we're setup for endgame overnight or at the latest tomorrow. Our numbers are getting tight, we can't afford to lose more innocents.


I KNOW I'm good, so I'll take the other side of Heinz guesswork and:

VOTE LATHUM

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I can't say I love being linked to my one analysis today, but I guess I've *earned* that for my votes Days One and Two.

Not for nothing, if RendeR does indeed come up good, I'll have to wonder if this is a set-up post for end-game

As I know you're wrong about me, I would like to know why you would choose me over lathum at this point. What makes me a better candidate than Lathum right now?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

As I know you're wrong about me, I would like to know why you would choose me over lathum at this point. What makes me a better candidate than Lathum right now?

Basically, the short version:

I think your votes are a tick worse than his, as laid out above.

[Chubby]

RendeR - how are lathum's votes worse than jeheinz's?
jeheinz - how are RendeR's votes worse than lathum's?

I'm still leaning towards what I said above but will be voting soon depending on responses

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Heinz, since you are around and someone who is usually kind of chatty ... what do you think about Lathum and RendeR at this point?

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Bolding mine.

I'd say I'm very confident that one of the two is a wolf. Not only does pure odds suggest it as I know I'm good and I'm pretty positive you're good but those votes are pretty meaningful votes.

Looking at Lathum's we had a group of 4 people with a vote on them, a confirmed wolf, 2 confirmed villagers and himself. I think it's a reasonable vote given the timing and the purported reason for it (though that reasoning of course works if he's a Villager or Wolf).

His 2nd vote is probably more interesting. The vote was 4-2 for a long while and then Snap, Crackle, Pop it's now 5-4. Granted your vote in there was changed and explained. He was the first in the sequence and I think if I'm a villager in that spot, I make the same decision. Putting it at 4-4 would just naturally lend itself to getting more out of the days discussion than had he made it 5-3. Of course if he's a wolf it makes sense since he's helping his pal out and making it a game again.


Looking at RendeR's votes. Day One he ties it up, and admits to just wanting a tie and to see what shakes. Makes some sense as a villager of course, to see where votes go after. Makes perfect sense as a wolf since they wouldn't really care as it's villager-villager and he avoids giving a villager a dreaded 2-vote lead.

Day Two he breaks the tie voting for the villager in the showdown.


I'd say looking at votes and actions I believe one of the two to be a wolf and it's more likely to be RendeR.

Originally Posted by Chubby

RendeR - how are lathum's votes worse than jeheinz's?
jeheinz - how are RendeR's votes worse than lathum's?

I'm still leaning towards what I said above but will be voting soon depending on responses

Chubby, here is my analysis on RendeR vs Lathum from earlier, when hoops directly asked me to compare the two.

[jeheinz72]

FYI, last call for me, I'm outta here in 10

[The Jackal]

VOTE LATHUM

[Lathum]

Unvote Heinze
Vote Render


Is Jackal trying to protect render?

I think his day one vote plus this bear some scrutiny

[Lathum]

Jackal- care to explain the hit and run on me withoug giving any reason or analysis?

[Chubby]

today vote RendeR

if good tomorrow vote heinz.
if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere (lathum)

that's my thought process right now as I think there's a wolf between render/heinz. not counting lathum out but he's not as on high on my baddie list as the other two right now.

[RendeR]

If heinz believes there is a wolf between myself and lathum, then Why would I vote heinz? he's not making any glaring mistakes, he's simply misinterpreting the data he has available.

Should I suddenly vote Heinz because he did a decent job of analysis? Or should I vote Lathum because he has just as much against him at this point as I do and the original statement was lathum or me?

Now lathum also threw a bone out there about jackal "IS he trying to protect render?" how is Jackal putting a second vote on lathum (and not tying the vote at all) protecting me? yes it brings us closer, but it doesn't actually help me in any way. I find this rather suspicious as it is a very simple way for him to cast two people under suspicion (or more so) and make himself appear better.

[hoopsguy]

I think I may have the wrong horse in this race. This vote change was not calculated in advance, like my move yesterday. But if I'm picking up my signals from players correctly then I think Lathum is the likely wolf out of these two. I'm not going to clarify much more (yet) because I do not want to jeopardize people that I'm rapidly moving into my somewhat secret trust list.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE LATHUM