NFL Week 3 thread, Trent Richardson is a Colt

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by TroyF

2) Denver wasn't playing especially well during that stretch. They lost three of four games and weren't playing very well on either side of the ball. The Chargers crushed them in the first half the next week before the comeback.

Playing badly, or played the 3 best teams (Houston, Atlanta, New England) you played all year outside of Baltimore?

Originally Posted by TroyF

4) Even with all the ball control, the Patriots won the game because of massive Denver turnovers. Thomas dropped the ball untouched running down the field for a TD, Manning dropped the ball on the 14 yard line setting up a short field and McGahee fumbled the ball at the Pats 15 with 5 minutes left and Denver driving for a score that would have cut the game to 3 points.

But you can say this about every single loss from a good team (especially when you use rose-colored glasses to say things like if McGahee didn't fumble on that drive you definitely would have scored a TD, instead of a FG or a different turnover). I can point out 2-3 plays from our loss to the Ravens in the playoffs last year, or the 2 Super Bowl's against the Giants, or that AFC CG loss to Peyton and Indy, or that playoff loss in Denver a few years back. And I'm sure if I went back to watch that Broncos game from last year I could find 2-3 huge Pats miscues - they just don't stand out because we held on to win.

[Butter]

Of course Denver is awesome against the run, because everybody has been behind by 20 points in the 2nd half and has no opportunity to use the run to keep the ball away from Peyton.

When the Bengals were awful, they used to be top 1/2 of the league against the pass because nobody ever had to pass against them, they could just run the Bengals over.

The Broncos are really good, and the favorite in the AFC right now. But it's still pretty early.

[TroyF]

OK, I'll try to address these points one by one:

1) The Broncos were 2-4 against playoff teams last year.

Yep, they were. A 6 point loss at Atlanta. A 6 point loss at home to the Texans. A 10 point loss on the road to the Pats. The blown coverage game in the playoffs. An 8 point win at the Bengals. A blowout against the Ravens on the road.

2) I understand turnover stats. I get it, you turn the ball over you lose. What I'm trying to point out is that against Manning, it's turnovers or bust. You WILL NOT win the game if you don't force the Broncos to turn the ball over. I'm not even talking turnover ratio here. I don't care if YOU turn the ball over 3 times or 0 times. If you don't force turnovers against the Broncos, any other strategy you employ is doomed for failure. Even with a mammoth negative turnover ratio, Denver was in every single one of the losses above. Think about that for a second.

3) Defense in the second half. Seriously? It was the blowouts that started it? OK, lets get to reality for a second.

Here is the total yardage of the Ravens by drive in the third quarter:

-6
3
9
2
14

By the time they started moving the ball again the score was 42-17.

The Giants? Slightly different. The Giants first five possessions in the second half were:

-1
81 TD
INT
11
-9

That -9 was where the punt return happened to put Denver up 38-16. Keep in mind, however, Denver had scored a TD every time they touched the ball in the second half to that point. While the score was 31-16 at the time of the punt, the Giants were reeling. Did we catch a massive break on that INT? Of course. But after Denver scored, the game is 31-16, not 45-10. The Giants still had a chance to move the ball. Their next two drives combined for 2 total yards.

4) This is a better team than last year. The offense is better. Peyton is comfortable and he has a ton of weapons. The defense is playing well when it needs to, and the best player on it is still out for 3 more weeks. Remember at the start of the Ravens game when I kept commenting on how much time Flacco had to throw? Yeah, I'm thinking Von Miller changes that dynamic a little bit, don't you? (this is assuming he isn't kicked out of the league by then, which could happen, but I'm going on the premise he'll actually be there)

5) Again, this isn't coming from some psycho fan who thinks the Broncos are a sure Super Bowl pick. They aren't. They have holes. A good pass rush with the kid on the left can get to Manning. Teams like the Chiefs, Patriots, Bengals and Titans will take advantage of that. The defense is better, but in this day and age of the NFL, you aren't stopping the great teams that often. Tom Brady will be better by the time the Broncos roll into town. Luck, Vick, Griffin, Rivers, Romo and Brady could all get scorching hot and no NFL defense stops them. If that happens, and Manning throws a few INT's? They lose. This isn't a 16-0 team.

In the playoffs, you face great teams each week. As the Patriots have found out, you can have a dominant team and either have a break go against you (the helmet catch for example) or catch a hot team. . . and you go bye bye. Denver will be one of those great teams in the playoffs. They might win out or they might choke again in the first round.

But to try and say some simple ground and pound strategy beats Denver? Please. To try and say they suck because they were 2-4 against playoff teams last year? The Ravens were 2-3 before the playoffs started. The Patriots were 3-3 and still didn't beat Denver out for the top seed. Sorry, I'm not seeing how that proves much of anything.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Of course Denver is awesome against the run, because everybody has been behind by 20 points in the 2nd half and has no opportunity to use the run to keep the ball away from Peyton.

When the Bengals were awful, they used to be top 1/2 of the league against the pass because nobody ever had to pass against them, they could just run the Bengals over.

The Broncos are really good, and the favorite in the AFC right now. But it's still pretty early.

Oh, I missed this. That's why yards per carry is kind of important. Denver had a pretty damned good run defense guys.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I say there's no way anyone beats the Broncos. They're going to the Super Bowl and going to win it all!

[Kodos]

As long as they can beat mighty KC!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

As long as they can beat mighty KC!

They'll kill the Chiefs. The spreads in both games should be 23 points, if not 30.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

They'll kill the Chiefs. The spreads in both games should be 23 points, if not 30.

How can this be when they have to play @KC and deal with that crowd noise?

Tampa Bay benchs Josh Freeman

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Matthean

How can this be when they have to play @KC and deal with that crowd noise?

The KC crowd will go silent in honor of Peyton Manning's greatness.

[Suicane75]

Point is, even money, have to pick someone, nobody is picking anyone other than the Broncos to win the Super Bowl right now.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Point is, even money, have to pick someone, nobody is picking anyone other than the Broncos to win the Super Bowl right now.

You mean no one is picking Seattle?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Point is, even money, have to pick someone, nobody is picking anyone other than the Broncos to win the Super Bowl right now.

They're the favorites thus far, but, at 3:1, not close to even money.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

They're the favorites thus far, but, at 3:1, not close to even money.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

Thats not what he said

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Danny

Thats not what he said

My point being that even smart betters aren't going even money on their odds. I realize what he said.

Personally, I'd take a team like Seattle over Denver. I'm not sure there's a team in the NFL like Denver that is definitively one injury away from being an average team at best. All it takes is one hit.

[Butter]

They're close to even money to win the AFC though.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

My point being that even smart betters aren't going even money on their odds. I realize what he said.

Personally, I'd take a team like Seattle over Denver. I'm not sure there's a team in the NFL like Denver that is definitively one injury away from being an average team at best. All it takes is one hit.

Really? I think there are multiple teams like that.

Packers - Aaron Rodgers to Seneca Wallace
Saints - Drew Brees to Luke McCown
Falcons - Ryan to Dominique Davis
Chargers - Rivers to Whitehurst


I think all of the above go from contenders to below average instantly.

Then we get to some others:
Patriots - Brady to Mallett
Seahawks - Wilson to Tavaris Jackson
Ravens - Flacco - Tyler
Bears - Cutler to McCown


QB is so important now that if you are a contender and lose your QB, the odds of winning a Super Bowl go to hell, the odds of making the playoffs take an gigantic hit and the odds of a losing season spike.

The Patriots did it before with Bledsoe/Brady and Cassell stepped in and played pretty well when Brady had his injury, but you just don't replace guys like that. Denver is not alone in this regard.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Matthean

You mean no one is picking Seattle?

Yeah, just using FootballOutsiders as a guide they have Seattle as slightly more likely to both make and win the Super Bowl (with a large gap down to #3 - New England) FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Originally Posted by TroyF

1) The Broncos were 2-4 against playoff teams last year.

Yep, they were. A 6 point loss at Atlanta. A 6 point loss at home to the Texans. A 10 point loss on the road to the Pats. The blown coverage game in the playoffs. An 8 point win at the Bengals. A blowout against the Ravens on the road.
...
To try and say they suck because they were 2-4 against playoff teams last year? The Ravens were 2-3 before the playoffs started. The Patriots were 3-3 and still didn't beat Denver out for the top seed. Sorry, I'm not seeing how that proves much of anything.

I'm not saying Denver sucks - I think they're the slight favorite in the weakened AFC right now - I just don't see them as this world-beating team. If Denver played New England, Seattle, Green Bay right now I'd favor the home team by about 60/40 in every matchup. I think any of Houston, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, SF, KC, Indy, Philly, Dallas, Chicago would have a ~30-40% chance to beat them.

2) I understand turnover stats. I get it, you turn the ball over you lose. What I'm trying to point out is that against Manning, it's turnovers or bust. You WILL NOT win the game if you don't force the Broncos to turn the ball over. I'm not even talking turnover ratio here. I don't care if YOU turn the ball over 3 times or 0 times. If you don't force turnovers against the Broncos, any other strategy you employ is doomed for failure. Even with a mammoth negative turnover ratio, Denver was in every single one of the losses above. Think about that for a second.

Clearly you're having trouble understanding turnovers if you think the number the opposition have has no bearing on the outcome. And guess what - one of those games last year (Houston) Denver had 1 turnover and Houston had 2. It happens (New England lost a game to Arizona last year despite winning turnover battle), just like good teams are usually still in games even with negative turnover ratios (as NE was vs. SF, Baltimore). I've seen your team play (borderline unstoppable passing offense, inconsistent running game, questionable but opportunistic defense that's better against the run, above average special teams), I've watched a team exactly like that play for the last 5 years, and I'm telling you there's no special secret formula to beat them. It's not ground and pound (which I haven't been advocating, but can work if you have the right personnel), it's not that you NEED to force X turnovers (although obviously that helps), it just requires being an above-average team that makes some big plays, limits its own mistakes, and takes advantage of the oppositions (whether that's Peyton fumbling the ball, an offensive lineman blowing an assignment and giving you a free sack on 3rd down, a DB misjudging a jump ball, a botched snap on a punt, etc). To pretend that only 1 of those 4 matter and some combination of other errors will never beat the Broncos is just a weird assertion.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Really? I think there are multiple teams like that.

Packers - Aaron Rodgers to Seneca Wallace
Saints - Drew Brees to Luke McCown
Falcons - Ryan to Dominique Davis
Chargers - Rivers to Whitehurst


I think all of the above go from contenders to below average instantly.

Then we get to some others:
Patriots - Brady to Mallett
Seahawks - Wilson to Tavaris Jackson
Ravens - Flacco - Tyler
Bears - Cutler to McCown


QB is so important now that if you are a contender and lose your QB, the odds of winning a Super Bowl go to hell, the odds of making the playoffs take an gigantic hit and the odds of a losing season spike.

The Patriots did it before with Bledsoe/Brady and Cassell stepped in and played pretty well when Brady had his injury, but you just don't replace guys like that. Denver is not alone in this regard.

I'd argue that the Chargers are already an average team, but other than that the list is pretty spot on. On the 2nd list, I think Seattle is the one that could survive/adapt to an injury to Wilson because they have the best defense and running game.

The 2 Patriots scenarios are wildly different. In one you had a better QB as the backup, which is a very rare case (although it could have happened in GB with a Favre injury, and did happen in SF last year), and I'm pretty comfortable saying none of the 8 listed backup QB's are going to be future all-pros. In the other one I think people assume Cassell did a really good job because he went 11-5, which is normally a very good record. But you have to understand that team was coming off the only 16-0 season in history, and probably had a win expectation level of 14 wins, so the downgrade to Cassell cost them 3 wins... it's just that very few teams have a win expectation above 11-12 wins, so a QB dropoff of 3 wins would kill almost any other teams playoff chances.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Tampa Bay benchs Josh Freeman

For Mike Glennon. 10% of the starting QBs in the NFL attended NC State.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Matthean

How can this be when they have to play @KC and deal with that crowd noise?

Tampa Bay benchs Josh Freeman

Geez couldn't they have waited one more week so my beloved Cards got the benefit of facing Freeman? No doubt Glennon will do a "Cam Newton" on them and throw for over 400 yards in his debut now.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Yeah, just using FootballOutsiders as a guide they have Seattle as slightly more likely to both make and win the Super Bowl (with a large gap down to #3 - New England) FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORTI'm not saying Denver sucks - I think they're the slight favorite in the weakened AFC right now - I just don't see them as this world-beating team. If Denver played New England, Seattle, Green Bay right now I'd favor the home team by about 60/40 in every matchup. I think any of Houston, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, SF, KC, Indy, Philly, Dallas, Chicago would have a ~30-40% chance to beat them.Clearly you're having trouble understanding turnovers if you think the number the opposition have has no bearing on the outcome. And guess what - one of those games last year (Houston) Denver had 1 turnover and Houston had 2. It happens (New England lost a game to Arizona last year despite winning turnover battle), just like good teams are usually still in games even with negative turnover ratios (as NE was vs. SF, Baltimore). I've seen your team play (borderline unstoppable passing offense, inconsistent running game, questionable but opportunistic defense that's better against the run, above average special teams), I've watched a team exactly like that play for the last 5 years, and I'm telling you there's no special secret formula to beat them. It's not ground and pound (which I haven't been advocating, but can work if you have the right personnel), it's not that you NEED to force X turnovers (although obviously that helps), it just requires being an above-average team that makes some big plays, limits its own mistakes, and takes advantage of the oppositions (whether that's Peyton fumbling the ball, an offensive lineman blowing an assignment and giving you a free sack on 3rd down, a DB misjudging a jump ball, a botched snap on a punt, etc). To pretend that only 1 of those 4 matter and some combination of other errors will never beat the Broncos is just a weird assertion.

I don't have trouble understanding turnovers in the least. The DB misjuding the assignment? That only led to a Ravens win because of the turnovers Denver committed earlier in the game.

I don't disagree with you on the Pats analogy to a point. They are now the Patriots part 2. The difference is the Patriots are not in the same league as Denver when it comes to a pass rush and the Broncos turnover ratio has consistently been worse. That said, I think this Denver defense is playing a LOT better than you think it is right now. And when Miller/Bailey get back it will only get better. The NE analogy is also apt with turnovers. . . while you guys do well in turnover margin, I don't really care how you do at the end of the day. If you can't force turnovers, you are dead. The offenses are simply too good and too tough to stop if you don't find a way to get the football from them.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Paul Oliver, former NFL player, commits suicide in Ga. - CBS News

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Denver has to do something about their LT.

If only there was a team with a top-tier LT that was having a fire sale, where even the player has come out and said he wouldn't be shocked to be traded after they shipped out last year's top pick.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by M GO BLUE!!!

Denver has to do something about their LT.

If only there was a team with a top-tier LT that was having a fire sale, where even the player has come out and said he wouldn't be shocked to be traded after they shipped out last year's top pick.

Cleveland is going to make Joe Thomas suffer for as long as they possibly can.