2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[stevew]

‘I’m Trump All The Way,’ Says Man Who Will Die From Mishandling Fireworks Months Before Election - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[Solecismic]

I've spent some time looking at how proportional delegates are assigned in today's states. In most cases, there's a threshold a candidate has to reach to get any delegates. That can range from 10% to 20%. In most cases, congressional districts are given three delegates, winner gets two unless he reaches a WTA threshold, usually 50%. At large delegates are proportional with a threshold.

Today's contest is a little different. Predict the number of delegates each candidate will finish the night with.

Up for grabs...

Alabama Primary (50), Alaska Caucus (28), Arkansas Primary (40), Georgia Primary (76), Massachusetts Primary (42), Minnesota Caucus (38), Oklahoma Primary (43), Tennessee Primary (58), Texas Primary (155), Vermont Primary (16), Virginia Primary (49).

I'll go first...

Trump 269, Cruz 184, Rubio 126, Kasich 11, Carson 5.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump 325, Rubio 135, Cruz 109 , Kasich 21, Carson 5

Bonus prediction: Trump wins Texas

[miked]

Georgia is an open primary, so I may crossover here. I like Bern over Hilary, but him winning is probably a 1:1,000,000 shot here. I may vote Trump on the R side to give the idiots what they want. Nearly everything he has said for his entire career has been exaggeration and lies. He is a bully who plays on the stupidity of people, so let's go for it!

[stevew]

Carson 7, Kasich 13, Trump 305, Cruz 163, Rubio 107

[cartman]

So Colorado only will have a caucus on the GOP side, no primary at all.

[Kodos]

In case anyone has missed this. Pure gold.

[JPhillips]

I'm surprised no one has pulled a Rove and attacked his business record head on. He seems easy to paint as a puffed up used car salesman.

[flere-imsaho]

My predictions:

• Trump wins every state except Texas, Arkansas, and Minnesota
• Trump's margins in MA & VT are yuge!
• Rubio squeaks a win in Minnesota, and inordinate amounts of press are subsequently devoted to this
• Cruz wins Texas by 5+ and squeaks a win in Arkansas, where Trump & Rubio are essentially tied for 2nd.
• Neither Kasich nor Carson drop out, though Kasich gets 3rd in MA (dropping Cruz to 4th) and Carson gets 3rd in AK (dropping Rubio to 4th or even 5th).
• Tomorrow, 3 viewpoints remain:
  • The math says Trump is winning
  • "Momentum" says Cruz is winning
  • The GOP establishment still thinks Rubio can win, and uses for evidence his one state win and collection of 2nd and 3rd places, to which everyone else goes

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm surprised no one has pulled a Rove and attacked his business record head on. He seems easy to paint as a puffed up used car salesman.

I honestly think they're scared. Trump's going to turn around and accuse them of never having a real job, which will definitely resonate with the base. But it would probably be the right move. As much as I dislike Rove, the strategy you mention was successful and devastating.

[digamma]

I was a little disappointed with the Oliver piece. He saves it at the end, and maybe that makes it worth it, but for the most part it is all stuff most people have heard before. Or at least most non-Trump voters.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by cartman

So Colorado only will have a caucus on the GOP side, no primary at all.

A caucus with no vote. Trying to decide if I'm going to even bother going. Republican state party here is so worthless

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I'll go first...

Trump 269, Cruz 184, Rubio 126, Kasich 11, Carson 5.

I fear this requires too much digging for me and the day I have ahead...but at first blush I don't think I'd be departing very much from these numbers.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Kodos

In case anyone has missed this. Pure gold.

That was great. I too think they should be attacking him on his "business success" and history. That part in the clip about his failed brands, business ventures, and lawsuits (especially the "i never settle lawsuits" bit) should be in every Hilary ad from now to the election.

[flere-imsaho]

IMO, there's no real point in the Clinton campaign attacking Trump while the GOP nomination remains contested. Let other Republicans attack him. When he becomes the presumptive nominee (whenever that is) and the GOP closes ranks, that's when you start your campaign.

Of course, if they're really smart, they start sounding out "moderate" Republicans who could potentially do an endorsement the other way. Sure, that's pretty much never done, but lots of stuff this cycle has never been done.

[digamma]

Attacking Trump on being a bad businessman is a no win proposition.

First, you're playing into his turf. He will just come back with "I'm enormously successful, look at my planes and buildings. Enormous wealth. You're a loser."

Second, who do you really win over with this argument? I think most people who are going to vote for Trump aren't really going to be swayed by this sort of thing.

And let's face it, Trump's had a lot of losses in his business career, but he's had a lot of wins too and built a huge brand. You may not like what it stands for, but it's yuuuuge.

If he is the nominee, it sets up a really weird election where you could see sort of an establishment middle carrying Hillary and Trump pulling from the populist ranks on both ends of the spectrum.

[vex]

Originally Posted by Kodos

In case anyone has missed this. Pure gold.

That was awesome.

[wustin]

Ron Paul points out Medias Trap on Donald Trump KKK issue - YouTube

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by miked

Georgia is an open primary, so I may crossover here. I like Bern over Hilary, but him winning is probably a 1:1,000,000 shot here. I may vote Trump on the R side to give the idiots what they want. Nearly everything he has said for his entire career has been exaggeration and lies. He is a bully who plays on the stupidity of people, so let's go for it!

Don't fuck with the monkey's paw, dude. It ends only in tears.

[miked]

I did not cross-over. I figured it was better that way.

[Arles]

I think Trump wins in a landslide. Short of a momentum-swinging beatdown by Cruz in Texas or Rubio later in Florida (neither of which would be backed by polling data), I think this race is over.

It's time to start planning for a Hillary-Trump finale. As a student of politics and someone who doesn't feel a president impacts that much from a macro standpoint, I can't wait for the show.

[larrymcg421]

Kirk Cameron told me God listens to Ben Carson, so I'm pretty sure the results will be:

Carson 595, Trump 0, Cruz 0, Rubio 0, Kasich 0

[Suicane75]

How hard/time consuming is it to get a Canadian citizenship?

[molson]

Trump starting his move to the left. (or really, just his return to the left)

Donald Trump in Triage Mode After Shocking Conservatives With Health Care Comments

Edit: That's actually an older article, but I wonder if we'll see more views like this expressed as he gets closer to the nomination.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

How hard/time consuming is it to get a Canadian citizenship?

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by molson

Trump starting his move to the left. (or really, just his return to the left)

Donald Trump in Triage Mode After Shocking Conservatives With Health Care Comments

Edit: That's actually an older article, but I wonder if we'll see more views like this expressed as he gets closer to the nomination.

Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio host who has been a defender of Mr. Trump in many instances, was also incensed. And he took issue with Mr. Trump’s suggestion that other Republicans are not disturbed by the idea of people dying in the street.

I mean...some are, I'd imagine. I don't know about all.

(Then, dying in the streets where it's all visible and shit...)

[cuervo72]

It just hit me - he looks kind like the Brain Games guy but with bushier hair.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Strictly anecdotal from voting today

Longest line I've seen since Obama's first general. It was above-average turnout BUT the holdup seemed to be related more to a shortage of poll workers than to the actual number of voters.

Based solely on visual impressions, looked like a split of Trump voters on one side & lots of Hilary voters with a handful of Sanders voter on the other. I mean, if I had to guess who was doing what anyway.

edit to clarify: Only 'cause I occasionally get misinterpreted, my "visual impressions" of the voters in my precinct was not any sort of triple secret code for "the black folks voting for Clinton". It's a relatively white precinct, race was not involved in my observation in any way. Truth is the phrasing was code for "a lot of really old white women with vision problems" (multiple voters at least 80 years old wearing blackout sunglasses in broad daylight)

[tarcone]

Saw my first campaign commercial today. It was Rubio claiming to be part of the Reagan youth grown up to take the mantle.
Not sure if I equate Rubio to Reagan.

[Solecismic]

One little thing to watch: Virginia hasn't been called yet, with indications that Rubio is outperforming the polls. May be nothing, but Trump was up 14-15 in the RCP average there.

[sabotai]

85% reporting in Virginia and Rubio is behind Trump by 4.5%.

Texas was just called for Cruz, and Cruz is barely leading Trump with 30% reporting in Oklahoma.

[sabotai]

Trump behind Cruz by 3% in Oklahoma with 40% reporting, but Google tells me it's just been called for Cruz.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by sabotai

85% reporting in Virginia and Rubio is behind Trump by 4.5%.

Texas was just called for Cruz, and Cruz is barely leading Trump with 30% reporting in Oklahoma.

I think the delegates are assigned by district, then 47 are at large. You have to get move than 50% of the vote to get all of the at large delegates or they are split by percentage of vote. I think that is how it works. So, he can win but not get much more out of it than bragging rights. Unless he wins most of the districts, then he could clean up. But it is still not looking good for him nationally.

The comment is for the Texas delegates.

[digamma]

"We interrupt Marco Rubio to bring you a call in Oklahoma..."

Pretty much the state of the Rubio campaign.

[Solecismic]

Still, Trump did underperform a little bit tonight. The late deciders did not go his way at all. The opportunity for the others to get together behind someone is still there, but it has to be done in time to have an effect on March 15.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by digamma

"We interrupt Marco Rubio to bring you a call in Oklahoma..."

Pretty much the state of the Rubio campaign.

Seems that way. He got a boost in Virginia, but nowhere else. Right now (and it's early in some states), he has three seconds and six thirds. Perhaps the narrative is it was with Christie - you can take an effective shot at someone, and it will hurt, but you will be hurt as well.

[tarcone]

I think the big news is that republicans showed up in larger numbers than democrats.
But was that because HRC is the sure thing, so dems just stayed home? Or are the GOP voters motivated this election?

[bhlloy]

If there was no Kasich, Rubio might well have that victory in VA and a very decent looking second in MA and could be on the way back up now, but it's hard to make a case for him still not having a state win at this point. If he's not a clear winner in FL he's out and Trump could well even in FL by 5.

You have to feel that this will be the template for what not to do by a national party moving forward. Christie and Kasich who really had no traction in the race have essentially torpedoed the one electable Republican frontrunner on their way out. That and the kid gloves approach to Trump are going to give the party leadership nightmares if they lose again. This was supposed to be an easy win.

[digamma]

Smart move by Kasich to set up a Vermont firewall.

(In all seriousness, the scapegoating of Kasich is sort of silly.)

[larrymcg421]

For someone like Kasich, Trump winning the nomination could actually be a good thing because if he tanks in the general as expected, it sets up a good argument for Kasich to get the nomination in 2020.

[Arles]

I love that Trump said "we need to stop the people from leaving places like New Jersey and going overseas", realizes Christie is right behind him, then says "well, not New Jersey - they love Chris there".

Perfect Trump

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I think the big news is that republicans showed up in larger numbers than democrats.
But was that because HRC is the sure thing, so dems just stayed home? Or are the GOP voters motivated this election?

Well in Virginia, you can vote in either the Rebpublican OR Democratic primary, but not both. I know plenty of bleeding-heart DFH liberals that took the opportunity to vote for Trump.

[panerd]

Edit

Think I was Rick rolled by twitter

[digamma]

Donald, Release the tapes.

[Lonnie]

Why does Cruz laugh a little bit after every sentence?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

For someone like Kasich, Trump winning the nomination could actually be a good thing because if he tanks in the general as expected, it sets up a good argument for Kasich to get the nomination in 2020.

It will be all about Cruz in 2020. Hillary will beat Trump and Cruz will be a flaming asshole for four years as he screams that finally the GOP needs to nominate a conservative.

Basically the last four years, but this one will go to eleven.

[sabotai]

Rubio might come out with a win. Minnesota is looking like it could go his way.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It will be all about Cruz in 2020. Hillary will beat Trump and Cruz will be a flaming asshole for four years as he screams that finally the GOP needs to nominate a conservative.

Basically the last four years, but this one will go to eleven.

Wait, if Trump hasn't gone to eleven... I fear what "going to 11" means.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Lonnie

Why does Cruz laugh a little bit after every sentence?

I think he's just happy he finished a sentence without someone punching him in the face.

[JPhillips]

How, realistically, can Rubio come out on top? I know the math gives him a chance, but even with a MN win, he has to be finished. How do you spin tonight into wins on March 15, especially when you're down double digits in all the polls for those states?