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03-01-2016, 10:28 PM
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#3551 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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I think he even loses Florida on March 15 and then he's completely toast.
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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03-01-2016, 11:20 PM
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#3552 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Okay, not sure if this has gotten any national play or if the election grognards already know this or what but , just in case ...
It's quite possibly, or even likely, that tomorrow someone here will see the GA results with Trump-Rubio-Cruz finishing in that order but Cruz getting 3-4 more delegates than Rubio. I would have been confused but I read the actual rules for hte state primary & delegate assignment earlier today so I'll share. A portion of the delegates in GA are distributed on a Congressional district level, the rest on the basis of statewide totals. Any candidate who gets 50% in a district gets all 3 delegates, otherwise the top two finishers in that district get 2 & 1. Right now, the working totals show Rubio with zero delgates & Cruz with 5., despite Rubio having a small lead in total vote. For the time being that's probably districts where Cruz is the declared runner-up while the other districts are still TBD. Their statewide total is virtually even, so the difference in delegates between them on that portion is probably only 1. So Cruz could conceivably finish with more votes but fewer delegates. Simple, right?
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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03-01-2016, 11:38 PM
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#3553 |
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Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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I took the RCP averages from each state and extrapolated them into the total votes cast in each state today. The RCP averages largely take a picture of something a few days ago, though in some states there was only one poll, taken maybe as much as a month ago.
I then compared all of that to the actual votes for each candidate. There have been about 7.5 million Republican votes counted today. The idea is to measure the break from polling. Cruz: +216,694 votes About 130,000 of these were from Texas and another 50,000 from Oklahoma. He made great strides today, but the argument that he only has regional strength is compelling. Rubio: +74,307 votes Since he was +76,000 in Virginia, we can chalk this up to poor polling in one state, or maybe a one-state push. Trump: -65,298 votes He was -58,000 in Virginia and -38,000 in Oklahoma. While it may have seemed like a rough week for him, it didn't translate that much to the voting booth. The question is whether there's some negative momentum now. Given the effect I'll next describe, this was a worse night for him than maybe pundits will see right away. Kasich: -88,277 votes When you're below 10% and your supporters know it, they might not turn out or they might vote based on something else. In this case, I'd say a lot of the non-turnout for Kasich and Carson went to anti-Trump votes. He was -55,000 in Texas. Carson: -137,427 votes Carson was -43,000 in Texas, but fell short in every single state except Vermont (+88). This seems to be the biggest source of Cruz's gain - not the new attacks on Trump. Still, it lends support to the theory that Trump is hurt every time someone drops out of the race. |
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03-02-2016, 12:39 AM
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#3554 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
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03-02-2016, 12:54 AM
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#3555 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Doesn't Chris Christie have a job or something he should get to?
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
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03-02-2016, 07:47 AM
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#3556 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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The big winner last night, IMO, was this guy I like to call "Mr. Contested Convention", also known as schadenfreude.
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03-02-2016, 08:04 AM
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#3557 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
OK, seriously now. 1. Trump's still winning the math. He has more delegates than his 4 remaining opponents combined (7 delegates were won by candidates who have dropped out). He still needs just under 1000 more candidates to win a majority, though, so there's still a slog to go. But at this point he can afford a pullback from his polls and state wins and still get there. He's in the drivers' seat. 2. Once upon a time Cruz was meant to clean up in the "SEC Primary". He did well, yes, but certainly not up to expectations he would have had in a non-Trump world. He may be the only challenger within striking distance to Trump, but the rest of the map doesn't look favorable to him. 3. The remaining map looks most favorable to Rubio. He still needs to generate momentum and dent Trump to realize it, though. He's also been hurt by Kasich beating him in several states. The next (and potentially final) turning point is March 15th, when (among others) both Florida & Ohio vote. They're important because: 1. They're winner-take-all states with a lot of delegates, so if Trump wins he sprints further ahead, but they also represent a way for others to catch up. 2. Kasich has said he'll drop out if he can't win Ohio. 3. Rubio absolutely must win his home state to show he's viable. Heck, to even be viable, probably. And, as of today.... Florida: Trump (40), Rubio (21), Cruz (16), Carson (5), Kasich (5); both Trump & Rubio trending up at Cruz's expense. Ohio: Trump (31), Kasich (26), Cruz (21), Rubio (13), Carson (5); but that's based on only one recent poll Best case for Rubio: Win FL and come in second to Kasich in OH, and then do a deal with Kasich (you can bet the Establishment would heavily back this, to Kasich's benefit). Worst case for Rubio: Trump wins Florida. If Trump wins Florida and its 99 delegates, this race is probably over, and it's certainly over for Rubio. Last edited by flere-imsaho : 03-02-2016 at 08:06 AM. Reason: speeeeeeeeeeeeeeling |
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03-02-2016, 08:06 AM
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#3558 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Yeah. I said to my son last night that I think at this point, it's just a question of if Trump gets to the delegate number or not, because nobody else is. And I'm not sure he does.
edit - re: Mr. Contested Convention
__________________
null Last edited by cuervo72 : 03-02-2016 at 08:08 AM. |
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03-02-2016, 09:48 AM
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#3559 | |
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Team Chaplain
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Just outside Des Moines, IA
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Quote:
Just to clarify, however, according to the AP, Cruz+Rubio have more than Trump. Trump: 316 Cruz: 226 Rubio: 106
__________________
Winner of 6 FOFC Scribe Awards, including 3 Gold Scribes Founder of the ZFL, 2004 Golden Scribe Dynasty of the Year Now bringing The Des Moines Dragons back to life, and the joke's on YOU, NFL! I came to the Crossroad. I took it. And that has made all the difference. |
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03-02-2016, 09:54 AM
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#3560 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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OK, so we're looking at a very real possibility that no one reaches the delegates needed if Trump, Cruz, and Rubio all stay in the race to the end. If that happens, what then? A brokered convention that picks Cruz or Rubio instead of Trump by combining their delegates together?
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My listening habits Last edited by Butter : 03-02-2016 at 09:54 AM. |
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03-02-2016, 10:02 AM
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#3561 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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As the GOP moves to winner take all primaries, I think it's very likely Trump will get a majority. There is a decent possibility of having to wait for that majority until the NY primary in May or the CA primary in early June, but bandwagoning is going to start soon for Trump and he'll start bagging big amounts of delegates.
Or for a shorter version, if he wins two of OH, IL, FL on the 15th, he'll get a solid majority of delegates before the convention.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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03-02-2016, 10:02 AM
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#3562 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Followed by 4 years of Hillary. Ask yourself this simple question: is it more likely than GOP voters will fall in line behind Trump or if Trump supporters will avoid voting for whomever is annointed until hell freezes over. I'm pretty sure I know the answer to that question.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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03-02-2016, 10:29 AM
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#3563 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Jon:
Along those lines, at what point do you hold it against the party if they continue to fight? If the GOP forces Trump to go to a contested convention with a large plurality (when the party would have already gotten behind any other nominee), do you hold that against them? |
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03-02-2016, 10:32 AM
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#3564 |
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"Dutch"
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Tampa, FL
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Well, since it appears that neither side of the GOP is willing to protect its flanks...it seems we are just in-fighting for HRC. Who happens to be a major benefactor of Trump since...well, forever. Go Team!
Last edited by Dutch : 03-02-2016 at 10:34 AM. |
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03-02-2016, 10:42 AM
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#3565 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Honestly, I'm already d-o-n-e done with "the party". Was never a big fan in the first place but I'm beyond over them now. I've been candidate-by-candidate basis for a long while now anyway but it's become incredibly clear to me that the party's interest is largely in retaining whatever power they think they have and the voters (much less the nation) be damned. I'm past "hold it against", the party can go straight to hell afaic.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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03-02-2016, 10:58 AM
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#3566 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: The Dirty
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I don't understand how Trump doesn't hold all the chips. If they band against him at the convention, he can just run as a 3rd party and fuck them over anyway. It seems like the only play "the party" has is to bargain with Trump (and not bargain as in force him to step aside because we know that won't happen).
__________________
Commish of the United Baseball League (OOTP 6.5) |
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03-02-2016, 11:25 AM
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#3567 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
I heard NPR interviewing Asa Hutchinson last night (GOP Gov AR) and he made the point that the correct term is "contested convention" as opposed to "brokered convention" since he's not sure there's anyone who could act as an actual broker this year. Short of the corpse of Reagan, I can't think of a single Republican politician sufficiently respected by Trump, Cruz & Rubio to engineer a deal. My guesses, in order of probability, are probably this: 1. Someone arrives at the convention with a majority. Done. 2. Trump & Cruz do a deal. 3. Starting with the 2nd vote, there's a series of votes where a wide range of candidates see their stock rise and fall in real time as delegates try to coalesce around a winner. Who's "on the table" will depend on a) who's present at the convention and b) who can win on social media. |
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03-02-2016, 11:32 AM
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#3568 | |
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"Dutch"
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
Lead, follow, or get out of the way. |
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03-02-2016, 11:35 AM
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#3569 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
The "leadership" of "the establishment" has proven incapble/unwilling to do the first, they seem disinclined to do the second ... they've got one option left from the list afaic.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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03-02-2016, 11:39 AM
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#3570 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Christie is really taking a beating in the New Jersey media. What does he gain from this Trump thing? Are we going to see a Chris Christie-themed casino on the Atlantic City boardwalk soon?
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03-02-2016, 11:44 AM
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#3571 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: SF
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Quote:
I'm sure by the mid summer convention the MSM will have released a slew of polls showing HRC beating Trump and losing to Rubio/Cruz. Thus, there will be (real) fear on the floor. |
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03-02-2016, 11:50 AM
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#3572 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: St. Louis
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Quote:
How easy will it be at that point to get on all 50 state's ballots? I know some of the mid-major parties like Libertarian and Green and Nadar as an independent couldn't get on all of them even in 2012. You don't think the state GOP will do everything in their power to block access? I don't know the answer to this question maybe it won't be that hard for someone as known as him. |
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03-02-2016, 11:50 AM
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#3573 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
Trump wins (the general): cabinet post or VP Trump loses (the general): Fox news |
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03-02-2016, 11:51 AM
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#3574 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: St. Louis
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Quote:
He's got to be assured the VP or Attorney General slot for Trump right? |
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03-02-2016, 11:57 AM
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#3575 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Trump would have to be a raging idiot to give away the VP slot to that clown. {hold your jokes} I'm hard pressed to think he's THAT bad of a businessman, and that's just bad business. It'd be paying top dollar for a 4th-rate item.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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03-02-2016, 12:00 PM
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#3576 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
The Republican Convention will finish by July 21st, by which time the deadlines for getting on the ballot (for independents) will have passed in the following states: Texas North Carolina Illinois Indiana New Mexico Nevada Georgia Delaware Florida Oklahoma South Carolina In addition, the following states have deadlines within a week following the close of the convention: Michigan Washington Missouri And these states have deadlines on August 1st or 2nd: Arkansas Kansas Maine Maryland Nebraska New Jersey Pennsylvania Vermont West Virginia Massachusetts South Dakota Wisconsin All of which is a complicated way of saying that it would effectively (though not technically) be impossible to walk away from the convention and qualify in enough states to win the general election. However, if you wanted to spite the party, you could absolutely qualify in enough states to be an effective spoiler. |
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03-02-2016, 12:08 PM
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#3577 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: St. Louis
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Quote:
Yeah you are probably right for VP but I'm guessing it would be a pretty big cabinet position. However does he need a politician as his running mate? If so who could he possibly get that would be a bigger name than Christie? |
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03-02-2016, 12:14 PM
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#3578 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
I'm impressed that you avoided the temptation to simply say "who could he get that's bigger than Christie" If he wants to stick him at AG then, perhaps, fine I suppose. That job needs someone that's capable of being a sonuvabitch at times and as long as he's our SOB then I suppose that's doable. I just see Christie on the ticket as doing as much harm as good. One thing Trump can't do are things that will hurt him with his own support, I don't see Christie having enough appeal to draw in enough votes to make it anything more than a trade at most.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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03-02-2016, 12:17 PM
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#3579 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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I'd bet a high paying job is part of the deal. Christie has never made much money, so setting his family up with millions has to be appealing.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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03-02-2016, 12:35 PM
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#3580 | |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: NYC
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Quote:
Local media has hated him for probably 3-4 years. |
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03-02-2016, 12:47 PM
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#3581 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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Quote:
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03-02-2016, 01:08 PM
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#3582 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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This is another interesting way of looking at the race: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...egate-targets/
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03-02-2016, 01:10 PM
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#3583 |
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Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
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03-02-2016, 01:14 PM
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#3584 |
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High School JV
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Texas
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Looks like Carson is finally dropping out,according to CNN
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03-02-2016, 01:15 PM
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#3585 | |
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Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
"I have decided not to attend the Fox News GOP Presidential Debate tomorrow night in Detroit. Even though I will not be in my hometown of Detroit on Thursday, I remain deeply committed to my home nation, America. I do not see a political path forward in light of last evening’s Super Tuesday primary results. However, this grassroots movement on behalf of “We the People” will continue. Along with millions of patriots who have supported my campaign for President, I remain committed to Saving America for Future Generations. We must not depart from our goals to restore what God and our Founders intended for this exceptional nation. I appreciate the support, financial and otherwise, from all corners of America. Gratefully, my campaign decisions are not constrained by finances; rather by what is in the best interests of the American people. I will discuss more about the future of this movement during my speech on Friday at CPAC in Washington, D.C. - Ben"
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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03-02-2016, 01:22 PM
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#3586 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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__________________
He's just like if Snow White was competitive, horny, and capable of beating the shit out of anyone that called her Pops. Like Steam? Join the FOFC Steam group here: http://steamcommunity.com/groups/FOFConSteam |
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03-02-2016, 01:29 PM
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#3587 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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CPAC is this Friday? Jesus, the entertainment never ends!
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03-02-2016, 01:32 PM
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#3588 |
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Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Last edited by Kodos : 03-02-2016 at 01:35 PM. |
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03-02-2016, 01:42 PM
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#3589 |
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Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Practically, I think it's tougher for Cruz than Rubio (despite Cruz's current lead in delegates). Rubio has to win Florida, if he doesn't then he's toast. But, if Rubio wins Florida and picks off another state or two - he might get enough momentum to get close to Trump on delegates. I think the media (esp right wing) is dying for Rubio to get even a sliver of momentum so that they can go into full pom-pom mode with him.
Still, it's hard to see either unseating Trump at this point. He needs to really have a disastrous election day in the next 2-3 weeks to leave the door open for one of these guys. Last edited by Arles : 03-02-2016 at 01:44 PM. |
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03-02-2016, 01:49 PM
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#3590 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Quote:
The best part of that is the drawing of Rubio:  ? |
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03-02-2016, 01:52 PM
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#3591 | |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
The successful right wing media, by definition, has benefited very well from the current right wing power structures. It is hard for me to think of a better job than "get paid a lot of money to sit in an office and write articles explaining what you think about current events." And they have those jobs because they have learned to thrive within the current system. I am sure that they can work a D.C. cocktail party better than I can do anything. That's how they get and keep their jobs and influence. And so, as Trump comes in to burn down that cocktail party establishment and replace it, they have every incentive to try and stop him. They can justify their actions with "I'm actually just against his David Duke comments," but that simply gives them cover for their more naked self-preservation motivations. The short of it--the people who have learned to best play the game by the current rules are going to be the most against changing the rules. |
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03-02-2016, 02:01 PM
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#3592 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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It's hilarious to read stories like this.
Major Republican Donors Push Dump Trump Effort - NBC News Do they not realize that this helps Trump? That the people voting for him are voting against the establishment? I don't think the GOP establishment understands at all why Trump is popular. |
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03-02-2016, 02:36 PM
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#3593 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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03-02-2016, 03:34 PM
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#3594 | |
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Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
Like Rubio and the attack-dog posture, this is all stuff that's being probably done too late, but from their perspective, what's the alternative?
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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03-02-2016, 04:03 PM
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#3595 |
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Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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Back in the first debate, in another lifetime, there was considerable consternation that Trump would not take "the pledge" to support the Republican nominee and not run as an independent.
I have to wonder what exactly the establishment has in mind for November? This seems so much like Bush 43's decision to topple Hussein. We know he's a bad guy, we may or may not be able to link him to weapons of mass frustration (the KKK thing), so let's blow this up. What's next? No idea. Party building is as difficult as nation building. What do they think will happen with the people who support Trump if they break their pledge? Romney's going to go on the air tomorrow to announce this break, presumably. Tomorrow's debate will be a free-for-all. What is the end game? |
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03-02-2016, 04:21 PM
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#3596 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: NYC
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I believe that's why ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ was invented.
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03-02-2016, 04:32 PM
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#3597 |
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Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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If the Republicans plan a "coup" on Trump at the convention and complete it - there won't be anything he can do, correct? It would be virtually impossible for him to get on all the ballots in late July given all the filing deadlines and signature requirements, right?
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03-02-2016, 05:12 PM
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#3598 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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The Liberatarian Party is after the R convention. Seems like there's a deal to be done there.
Liberatarians sell out to get their 15% ballot access and back Trump...something like that. Last edited by stevew : 03-02-2016 at 05:33 PM. |
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03-02-2016, 05:46 PM
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#3599 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Libertarians don't seem like the sell out type and I doubt they want to go down the path of the Reform Party.
__________________
Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner |
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03-02-2016, 05:56 PM
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#3600 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Would that spell the end of the GOP if they performed that coup?
Im thinking the anti-establishment votes are not going to just Trump, but Cruz as well. If the party pushed Rubio in, Im thinking bad things would happen.
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
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