Werewolf LXXXII - Cops and Robbers (Day 3 Deadline 4 PM EST Thursday)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think we're all pretty certain they tried for the kill last night and I think RendeR can vouch for that.

They have independant actions. One can kill and one can steal money from my interpretation of the rules.

[jeheinz72]

Again you gather to decide upon today's lynch. 3 main candidates present themselves and then a showdown of sorts between saldana and Lathum. Saldana purports that he has been tailing people at night and that seems to curry favor with a few voters. In the end, it is decided that Lathum is the best bet.

He's strung up and left to die. Upon further examination you find a map that appears to outline the underground of the bank and numbers in the form of a safe code on sheet of paper. Yep, it's certain, Lathum was a ROBBER!

Night 2 has begun, night actions are due at 3 PM EST.

[EagleFan]

Very nice start to this game.

[The Jackal]

Ha, ownage.

[SnDvls]

yes!!!!

[Alan T]

Huh... well that was incredibly lucky.. I had written off in my head that Lathum was actually good based on the last 30 minutes.

[SnDvls]

I'm hoping one of the cops puts in a protection order for Saldana

[claphamsa]

wow

[Alan T]

In case I die tonight, figure I'd throw out thoughts for day 3..

People who have voted for wolves both days:

Saldana - 2
Eaglefan - 2
Alan - 2

People who voted for wolves 1 of 2 days:

Narcizo - 1
Packerfanatic - 1
Claphamsa - 1
path12 - 1
St.Cronin - 1
Barkeep - 1
Illinifan - 1
The Jackal - 1
Sndvls - 1

People who have not voted for a wolf yet:

ntndeacon


So right now ntn is not looking too good. I also think even though some people only voted for 1 of 2 wolves, there are several of them whom I feel that I like their votes, actions or comments more than the rest: Sndvls, claphamsa and the jackal all feel relatively ok to me.

So trust/distrust list for me right now is:


Feel pretty good about:

Saldana, Eaglefan, The Jackal, Claphamsa, Sndvls

Slight ok feeling about:

Narcizo, Barkeep

Neutral feeling about:

Packerfanatic, St.Cronin, Path12, Illinifan

Needs to be looked at:

ntndeacon

[EagleFan]

I tend to think this makes a CoT of saldana. I see no reason for a fake reveal to then vote for another wolf which would give us two wolves and only a counter reveal from the real boy to nab us a third wolf.

[EagleFan]

dola If that was a fake reveal and he is not the boy I think this would be a good time for the real boy to reveal as this gives us a third wolf. If not we at least have a CoT started.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I tend to think this makes a CoT of saldana. I see no reason for a fake reveal to then vote for another wolf which would give us two wolves and only a counter reveal from the real boy to nab us a third wolf.

Trust me, I tried to figure out in my head some way he fake revealed but I can't think of any logical scenario where he can't be telling the truth.

[EagleFan]

Will be back later. Got the wife home and had time to check the thread for a few but ned to go get lunch.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Trust me, I tried to figure out in my head some way he fake revealed but I can't think of any logical scenario where he can't be telling the truth.

True, I can't think of how that would make sense at all but we still should ask the real boy to come forward if for some reason this is a fake. Until that happens saldana is clearly in my CoT.

[path12]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think we're all pretty certain they tried for the kill last night and I think RendeR can vouch for that.

Catching up. I lol'd.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Trust me, I tried to figure out in my head some way he fake revealed but I can't think of any logical scenario where he can't be telling the truth.

Agree. I've got saldana as high trust in my mind after this.

[path12]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

True, I can't think of how that would make sense at all but we still should ask the real boy to come forward if for some reason this is a fake. Until that happens saldana is clearly in my CoT.

At this point if it's a fake reveal there is no reason for the real boy to not come out -- we're down two robbers and I doubt there was more than three to start based on the number of players.

[PackerFanatic]

Too bad I wasn't around, I likely would have switched (that sounds pretty corny, but just throwing it out there)

Way to go guys.

[Narcizo]

Nice. There's no reason for the boy not to reveal under these circumstances, so - sorry about that Sal.

[Lathum]

well that suck.

Had I not been at school I think I could have talked my way out of that, if nothing else it would have been interesting.

[jeheinz72]

As the day begins you realize another person is missing. You scour the place again and back in the employee break room you see legs coming out from behind the fridge. Opening the fridge you find a head, the head of the one called The Jackal.

Rifling through his clothes you find his wallet and in it, his business card. It reads

Jack Al Loserman
Professional Male Belly Dancer


Looks like he was just a Customer making a deposit!


A reminder, I'm on the road most of tomorrow so I"m making the deadline 4 PM EST for the lynch. If no one objects, night actions will also be due then and I'll run them at the same time (since I'd like to get to drinking and not have to come back online). Any level of conditional complication is fine.

[jeheinz72]

Oh, I should add, since I may not be exactly online, that the deadline is at 4 PM EST tomorrow whether I'm here to "call" it or not. Only votes before then will count.

Results will then be up betwen then and 5 or so

Day 4 deadline would then by Monday at the usual time.

[jeheinz72]

Oh, and also, No Money was taken from the bank.

[claphamsa]

why are they not taking money?

this is almost as ridiculous as last time we played this version..... just the other direction!

[illinifan999]

We are on a hot streak right now!

[Barkeep49]

I can't decide if I think ntn's not having voted for a wolf is damning or not. I'm inclined to think not, because so much is accepted that wolf vote for wolves. I think that idea is, as I've stated repeatedly this game, currently a loser for the wolves, but it seems to be the idea. So I think it's far more likely that ntn just got it wrong twice, which is still a very small sample size. Very small.

That to me means that the most logical place to look would be the 1 wolf faction. This is not to exonerate EF and Alan, but simply to state that if they are wolves by voting for wolves twice they've done a lot to help our cause anyway and so they can have a little break.

Has anyone put together one of those vote histories for D1 and D2? I think something like that would definitely effect my thinking on who to vote for D3.

[path12]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

why are they not taking money?

this is almost as ridiculous as last time we played this version..... just the other direction!

I don't get that either. They don't win without money do they? Or is it a minor victory?

[Barkeep49]

There are several levels where their not going after the money is puzzling, but I would suggest at this point that they are feeling the need to keep up the night kill with limited resources (in terms of manpower).

[Narcizo]

Given the apparent uncertainty of making night kills and the fact that there are two bodyguards (albeit not perfect one's either), I think it's quite possible there are two wolves left. If that is the case then a wolf has to have voted for a wolf. To my mind I think there's far less likely to be a wolf on wolf vote on the second day. With a wolf already knocked out I can't see the wolves getting cute voting for one of their team. EagleFan isn't going to like this again but of the lot I'd say his vote is probably the weakest wolf vote on day two as it seems his vote wasn't crucial given an uncontested reveal. Then again it seems a bit unlikey he'd vote twice for a wolf, were he a wolf, unless he's shooting for some sort of record. Otherwise with both Packer and clap pretty high up my list for the manner of their voting yesterday that pretty much leaves path and me from yesterday.

The simplest direction to go at the moment is for NTN though. Let's be honest, his play style means we're never going to come up with anything concrete to damn him with other than his voting record. As his voting record speaks for itself I'm hard pressed to see a reason not to vote for him today.

I'll think about it overnight though and put together another voting record if no-one jumps in while I'm sleeping.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't get that either. They don't win without money do they? Or is it a minor victory?

Like us they get a minor victory without the cash. All them getting the cash/us keeping it gets is a major rather than minor win. Given their current situation I would imagine shooting for a major win is the least of their concerns at the moment.

[Alan T]

Yeah, I'm not real sure where to go today just yet with my vote. I brought up ntndeacon's name last night because I figured being the only person to not have voted for a wolf yet this game was worth at least someone following or looking into him a bit.

I'd like some info from Saldana on who he followed last night and found out. Since his reveal is out there anyways, that info can help us. Otherwise I think I agree that the day 2 non-wolf voters seem the best place to look.. I can't imagine they'd want to let a wolf die two straight days so they have to have voted away from Lathum. Perhaps one of the ones who voted for Saldana and tried to get people to look at a Saldana v Eaglefan run off earlier in the day would be a good start.

Out of the group: Narcizo , Packerfanatic, NTNDeacon, claphamsa, path12 I feel a bit better about Narcizo and claphamsa.

That leaves us Packerfanatic, ntndeacon and path from that group that I'm mostly focusing on and want to go back and review posts. If Saldana at least followed one of that group and reported not seeing anything, it at least can narrow it down a little more (even if there is a chance his following ability simply failed, we should play the percentages at this point)

[SnDvls]

going to throw this out there for now

vote path

he pings me the worst of the three (PF, ntn, path)

also [Real Life Info] they are doing a network equipment upgrade here at the office some time tomorrow between 12:01 am & 4 PM for 4 hours, but they can't narrow down a time frame so I need to get this in now to make sure it's done [/Real Life Info]

[EagleFan]

This has been a strange first two days/nights, to say the least. At least we are ahead.

I'll look over things tonight after Survivor. Will be offline until then.

[path12]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

going to throw this out there for now

vote path

he pings me the worst of the three (PF, ntn, path)

Would that be because the other two have said hardly anything? (granting that I've not been around as much as I'd like).

[The Jackal]

Ah well. Good luck customers. And I've actually given a belly dance to a chick, so that works.

[st.cronin]

VOTE NTNDEACON

Seems like a pretty easy vote to me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

VOTE NTNDEACON

Seems like a pretty easy vote to me.

Really? Why? Because of two votes? Flipping a coin twice suggests we should have a lot more than 1 person who is in this boat. I think our sample size is way way too small to draw such a confident conclusion.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Really? Why? Because of two votes? Flipping a coin twice suggests we should have a lot more than 1 person who is in this boat. I think our sample size is way way too small to draw such a confident conclusion.

By easy I don't mean I know ntn is a robber. I just mean it doesn't seem like there's a good reason to vote for anybody with a better voting record.

Like yesterday, I'm trying to keep things simple with my vote.

[saldana]

wow...i am surprised i am alive today...i wish i could take credit for nailing lathum, but if he hadnt been the next leading vote getter, nothing i said acutally incriminated him

as far as last night, I put in to follow Alan, but was not able to see exactly what he was doing (i just know he was doing something)

reason for picking alan? the fact that he wasnt after me at all was actually alarming to me...he usually wants nothing more than to lynch me, which usually puts us in a showdown, which he usually wins, but then he takes heat for getting me lynced when i am a villager.

again, i dont know what he was doing, simply that he was doing something.

[st.cronin]

I'm intrigued.

UNVOTE NTNDEACON
VOTE ALAN T

[EagleFan]

I'll go along with this for now (saldana is the only CoT member at the moment for me anyway), unless I get a better feel from somewhere else when I read back through this.


vote Alan T

[saldana]

how is anyone getting "i think we should vote for Alan" out of what i said?!

every player in the game has a night action...hell, i have one and i am only 11....the fact that he was doing something is meaningless.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by saldana

how is anyone getting "i think we should vote for Alan" out of what i said?!

every player in the game has a night action...hell, i have one and i am only 11....the fact that he was doing something is meaningless.

For me it wasn;t based on what you said about his action when you followed him but your observation about his play and how it has deviated.

[claphamsa]

ive been very quiet this sucks. I hate hurricanes. and people who are in charge of hurricane responders! they anger me!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm intrigued.

UNVOTE NTNDEACON
VOTE ALAN T

I'm intriguiged too.

Vote st.cronin

[st.cronin]

/agree with EagleFan

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm intriguiged too.

Vote st.cronin

To elaborate: I think there's a definite difference between assumign the simplest possible reason for an action and doing the simplest possible action. To me it's simple to vote NTN, given the record, but the simplest reason for NTN being 0-2 is not that he's a wolf. Or if it's not the simplest it's equally as simple as his being a wolf.

[st.cronin]

Fair enough, BK. I'll point out in my defense that I cast the first vote on Lathum, and I think was the first to mention him as a suspect - basically using the same logic that got me to ntn today.

Of course, now I'm voting for Alan, but whatever.

[EagleFan]

Looking into it ntn has been very quiet so it is hard to get any read. One could question the timing of his votes being placed that they were intentionally placed to try to keep any suspicion on him. Of course it could just be that was the only time frame in which he could get online and in that case his votes mean nothing ad he is just a villager being over-analyzed.

I lean towards the Alan T vote because the analysis from saldana (someone easily in CoT at this point) pointing to a difference in Alan's normal play style towards him.

I still don't see any patterns yet other than what I pointed out in the day one votes. That points to a good feeling for PF and clap though they have not hit the CoT all the way yet like saldana.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I lean towards the Alan T vote because the analysis from saldana (someone easily in CoT at this point) pointing to a difference in Alan's normal play style towards him.

This is going to defeat the point, I've been making, but if a wolf is willing to bury him or herself in a hole by voting wolf 2 days in a row, I think the least we can do is give them a day of credit. We don't know what a view from saldana looks like on a "good guy" so there is some logic to killing Alan to find out, if we had the expectation that saldana would be around tomorrow to help us out with another view. But if Alan is good, it's likely that saldana's view isn't all that worthwhile anyway thus killing a good guy to prove that isn't worth it, when factoring in other positives (if that makes sense).