NFL 2022 Offseason, Draft, Free Agency

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I want to like Dan Campbell. But what the fuck, man.

Top QB prospect Desmond Ridder said #Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell
“made me drink a glass of milk" during their meeting earlier this week.

Ridder, who is lactose intolerant, said Campbell wanted to test his toughness and ability to recall plays while in pain. pic.twitter.com/WwCCrNjFzp

— The Tone Setters (@thetonesetters) March 3, 2022

That's a parody site, you guys... The Onion of sports.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Bobble

That's a parody site, you guys... The Onion of sports.

Well butter my buns and call me a biscuit.

[JPhillips]

Sounds like the Bengals at Saints game will be in London.

Why wouldn't the NFL want Burrow and Chase to go back to Louisiana?

[GrantDawg]

There were some Georgia D-linemen that made themselves some cash today.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Bobble

That's a parody site, you guys... The Onion of sports.

I had no idea. Thanks for the heads up.

[stevew]

I’m content with the Steelers trading 2 #1s and some 2s for Rodgers but I don’t know about 3. If we’re going 3 #1s + I’d rather have Wilson if he’s made available

[sabotai]

Aaron Rodgers has contract offer from Green Bay Packers that would alter QB market, source says

I'm ready to be proven wrong!

Although the salary cap is projected to go up by nearly $50m per year by 2024 according to overthecap.com. I had no idea it was going to shoot up that fast.

[albionmoonlight]

Calvin Ridley suspended for a year for gambling on NFL games. Wow.

I don’t get why an NFL player would do that. There are lots of other things you can do that are more fun and carry much less drastic suspensions if you get caught.

[Solecismic]

We've known for a long time that it's a quarterback's league. Even Vince Lombardi knew it. You either have a quarterback or you compensate for not having a quarterback.

With an increasing salary cap, a good strategy is to allow your starting quarterback to claim a good percentage of that increase.

What I got wrong is just how few real quarterbacks there are in the league and that coaches know it, and try and plan around it, but there's only so much they can do.

The Stafford/Goff trade (and the resulting immediate success) has changed the league.

If you're designing a football sim and what makes football particularly challenging is the variety of plays you can call... how do you simulate the have/have not nature of the quarterbacking position?

I recently read (as I've mentioned before) Collision Low Crossers, which is a detailed account of the 2011 New York Jets season.

The prevailing narrative is that the Jets had a Super Bowl caliber team, probably the best defense in the game, and a likeable, talented quarterback who simply could not process the game quickly enough to make good decisions on the field. Turnovers resulted and turnovers in the NFL are often the difference between wins and losses when the talent level is pretty close between teams.

There's a lot about whether the Jets could have won if Rex Ryan had insisted on making those game plan adjustments instead of trusting his offensive coordinator that Sanchez would get it eventually. That, too, would be difficult to simulate.

Now you have Rodgers, clearly at the tail end of his Hall of Fame career, knowing he can command the money that others have refused to command because they wanted good players around them.

It's an interesting strategy (if it indeed even is a strategy). Rodgers is notoriously silent about his internal motivations, even willing to wall himself away from family and not talk about it. I wonder what he's thinking right now and whether he will still be able to command the respect of a locker room if he takes that much money.

[Lathum]

I bet 1500 total I don’t have a gambling problem

— CALVIN RIDLEY (@CalvinRidley1) March 7, 2022

For some reason I don't believe him

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Calvin Ridley suspended for a year for gambling on NFL games. Wow.

I don’t get why an NFL player would do that. There are lots of other things you can do that are more fun and carry much less drastic suspensions if you get caught.

To be fair there are fewer things more fun then betting NFL games...

[QuikSand]

also, lol Drew

This tweet makes it sound like he's betting me $1500 that he doesn't have a gambling problem https://t.co/dJJ8fQfVnF

— Drew Magary (@drewmagary) March 7, 2022

[Lathum]

lol.

I see a lot of people on Twitter defending him saying since he bet his own team he shouldn't be in trouble. Now I know it is shocking to find amazingly bad takes on Twitter, but betting your own team is still a slippery slope, especially for a skilled player.

He could fake an injury earlier in the week causing the line to drop .5-1 point full well knowing he will play but get the better line by claiming he is hurt and isn't going. Obviously most players being out doesn't effect the line, but if you allow players to bet to win on their own teams what is to stop a top QB from doing this?

[molson]

Originally Posted by Lathum

lol.

I see a lot of people on Twitter defending him saying since he bet his own team he shouldn't be in trouble. Now I know it is shocking to find amazingly bad takes on Twitter, but betting your own team is still a slippery slope, especially for a skilled player.

He could fake an injury earlier in the week causing the line to drop .5-1 point full well knowing he will play but get the better line by claiming he is hurt and isn't going. Obviously most players being out doesn't effect the line, but if you allow players to bet to win on their own teams what is to stop a top QB from doing this?

That stuff always sounds like bullshit minimizing/rationalizations to begin with, but ya, even if true, it's still incredibly problematic. He can influence lines with his inside information (especially if connected people know he's betting and on who), plus once a player is willing to cross that line and bet on his league's games, he's more likely to cross other types of gambling lines if he loses big. It's just a line that can't be crossed in the first place.

[RainMaker]

If he was betting on the Falcons, he probably has a gambling problem.

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I don’t get why an NFL player would do that.

Well, he did just miss most of a season with mental health issues.

Though I wonder now if gambling addiction was the mental health issue. Regardless of what the NFL and Ridley claim now.

[Lathum]

Guess he has no shot at getting into the baseball hall of fame now...

[albionmoonlight]

The #Falcons were approximately $7.1M over the cap entering today. With Calvin Ridley's suspension, his $11.1M salary comes off the books and tolls to 2023. Atlanta is now under the cap ... so that's one way to free up room.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) March 7, 2022

Falcons' Front Office playing 4-D Chess

[GrantDawg]

Cool. There are many people that are total pieces of crap in the NFL, but Calvin Ridely has definitely shot up the charts.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

Losing $11.1 million on $1500 worth of bets has to be an all-time bad gambling loss.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

lol.

I see a lot of people on Twitter defending him saying since he bet his own team he shouldn't be in trouble. Now I know it is shocking to find amazingly bad takes on Twitter, but betting your own team is still a slippery slope, especially for a skilled player.

He could fake an injury earlier in the week causing the line to drop .5-1 point full well knowing he will play but get the better line by claiming he is hurt and isn't going. Obviously most players being out doesn't effect the line, but if you allow players to bet to win on their own teams what is to stop a top QB from doing this?

I don't disagree with you but given the shifting attitudes to the acceptance of gambling on sports, I can see why people are defending him.

1. We know that athletes gamble a lot. So the gambling in and of itself is not the issue.

2. He was not an active member of the team at the time. Yes it is a slippery slope but in this particular case, he is just a regular guy betting on the games with no influence over the game that we know of.

3. He did bet on his team. Whether you believe it was a smart betor not, the perception of his loyalty to his team is not compromised.

4. I think the perception that most people think of about the perils of a player gambling on their sport/team is that player ends up in debt to the bookies, falls under the influence of "the underworld" and that influence be used to force the player to do something to compromise the integrity of the game. Losing bets on Draft Kings or Fan Duel just doesn't have the same feeling.

I think the leagues have to take this hard line stance because I don't see how they can apply nuance in any of these cases. But I think that there is nuance that could be applied.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

We've known for a long time that it's a quarterback's league. Even Vince Lombardi knew it. You either have a quarterback or you compensate for not having a quarterback.

With an increasing salary cap, a good strategy is to allow your starting quarterback to claim a good percentage of that increase.

What I got wrong is just how few real quarterbacks there are in the league and that coaches know it, and try and plan around it, but there's only so much they can do.

The Stafford/Goff trade (and the resulting immediate success) has changed the league.

If you're designing a football sim and what makes football particularly challenging is the variety of plays you can call... how do you simulate the have/have not nature of the quarterbacking position?

I recently read (as I've mentioned before) Collision Low Crossers, which is a detailed account of the 2011 New York Jets season.

The prevailing narrative is that the Jets had a Super Bowl caliber team, probably the best defense in the game, and a likeable, talented quarterback who simply could not process the game quickly enough to make good decisions on the field. Turnovers resulted and turnovers in the NFL are often the difference between wins and losses when the talent level is pretty close between teams.

There's a lot about whether the Jets could have won if Rex Ryan had insisted on making those game plan adjustments instead of trusting his offensive coordinator that Sanchez would get it eventually. That, too, would be difficult to simulate.

Now you have Rodgers, clearly at the tail end of his Hall of Fame career, knowing he can command the money that others have refused to command because they wanted good players around them.

It's an interesting strategy (if it indeed even is a strategy). Rodgers is notoriously silent about his internal motivations, even willing to wall himself away from family and not talk about it. I wonder what he's thinking right now and whether he will still be able to command the respect of a locker room if he takes that much money.

One unfortunate thing about the Calvin Ridley stupidity news breaking when it did is that we almost missed Jim musing about developing football sims in the contemporary era.

It is a good point for discussion. How do you model something like the Buffalo/KC playoff game?

If you tried to accurately model what the NFL is like right now, I can already hear the complaints: "The only thing that matters is getting a QB rated above [X]. It does not matter how well you gameplan; or how good your other players are; or your coach ratings. The, like, 5 teams with top QBs are the only ones who really have a chance. And all you can do is luck into those guys. This game sucks!"

So how do you deal with modeling reality when reality isn't as diverse as it used to be?

[Ksyrup]

Russell Wilson to Denver! WOW!

What did we give up, though?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Russell Wilson to Denver! WOW!

What did we give up, though?

Reportedly nultiple 1sts, other picks, and players

[stevew]

Drew Lock headed to Seattle apparently

[miami_fan]

Source: QB Aaron Rodgers returning to play for Green Bay Packers

[JonInMiddleGA]

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
· 3m
Trade package:

Seattle gets QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

Denver gets Russell Wilson and a fourth-round pick.

[NobodyHere]

My gut is saying that Seattle won this trade.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

My gut is saying that Seattle won this trade.

+1

[molson]

As long as they can find a QB. You can't win without that.

[Kodos]

Mine says Denver won. I'll admit to being wrong if they don't win a Super Bowl with Wilson at the helm before he retires.

[Ksyrup]

My daughter is upset that we're giving up Fant. I told her I'd be more upset if they traded Patrick since I just replaced her Von Miller jersey with a Patrick jersey!

[stevew]

Wilson is still in the prime of his career and could likely play 7 more seasons. I like this move a ton for the Broncos.

[Ksyrup]

Need to replace Fant but the WR corp are top notch. And Okwuegbunam is a decent TE already so hopefully he can step it up.

[Ksyrup]

Someone tweeted video of DK Metcalf chasing down that DB with the caption "Metcalf after Drew Lock's 4th INT."

[JPhillips]

Who of Mahomes, Wilson, or Herbert misses the playoffs?

And I'm just assuming Carr will be golfing by then.

[Ksyrup]

If this is the Russell Wilson Denver is getting... Seattle won the trade.

BREAKING: The Seattle Seahawks are trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, per @AdamSchefter pic.twitter.com/ddljzDslLb

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 8, 2022

[albionmoonlight]

David Carr is the 4th best QB in his division.

If he were in the NFC, he'd (arguably) be the 4th best QB in the entire conference.

[Solecismic]

I'm trying to parse these developments. The cap went up a lot this week. Seems the Packers just decided to throw the increase at Rodgers until he retires. So much guaranteed money there, at an age when non-Brady quarterbacks go into steep decline. It's basically the Packers taking their chips, shoving them into the center of the table, and having no idea what Age, sitting across from them, is holding.

Teams still more or less use the old draft pick value chart, adding and subtracting picks. Denver gave up about the equivalent of the number-one pick in the draft. That's supposed to be a generational player at a need position or a true franchise quarterback.

But if we're transitioning to an NFL in which players don't necessarily prefer to resign with the same team, that might not mean the same thing. Draft picks became more valuable in the last CBA because their cap value was lowered and fixed. So that's four years at a good price, plus loyalty resigning. I'm not sure the draft value chart ever reflected that properly. Now I'm thinking maybe along with the fixed salaries went the player concept that staying in the same place is worth much.

You'd expect Wilson to be at this level for about four seasons. I assume this trade goes along with Denver giving Wilson at least $150 million in guaranteed money.

The players... Lock probably doesn't make the team going into his last rookie-contract season with an established starter on the other side. The DT was solid last season, but has a trade-friendly contract and isn't cheap. Fant is headed into his fourth season and has been productive and presumably is about to get paid.

None of that is earth-shattering, just an indication that the Broncos and Seahawks have been working on this a long time. That's unusual - it's essentially two deals in one - the Wilson trade and Denver adjusting its roster by moving last-year contracts that still have some value. So Seattle is getting a #1 pick-equivalent in draft picks plus some decent value in 2022 contracts.

Who wins the trade? Denver's coming off a fourth-place finish in a loaded division. So is Seattle. Denver's taken the gamble here - they're giving up their draft for two years and presumably committing an enormous percentage of their cap for Wilson. If they're not in the championship conversation in the next couple of seasons, this will hurt. Seattle gets a lot of pieces for a rebuild while the rest of the division ages.

[Lathum]

Wonder if Seattle thinks Watson will be coming back and make a move for him.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Who of Mahomes, Wilson, or Herbert misses the playoffs?

And I'm just assuming Carr will be golfing by then.

Three teams from the same division have made the playoffs several times, even before the expansion to 7 teams. It's happened with the Ravens/Bengals/Steelers at least twice that I can remember.

Now, I'm not sure that anyone in the AFC West is going to bad enough to allow the other three teams to get in (given that the Raiders made the playoffs in a year where the Gruden situation happened).

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I'm trying to parse these developments. The cap went up a lot this week. Seems the Packers just decided to throw the increase at Rodgers until he retires. So much guaranteed money there, at an age when non-Brady quarterbacks go into steep decline. It's basically the Packers taking their chips, shoving them into the center of the table, and having no idea what Age, sitting across from them, is holding.

I thought Rogers's contract numbers was an alternative fact.

ETA:

Hey everyone, just wanted to clear some things up; YES I will be playing with the @packers next year, however, reports about me signing a contract are inaccurate, as are the supposed terms of the contract I “signed”. I’m very excited to be back 💪🏼 #year18❤️

— Aaron Rodgers (@AaronRodgers12) March 8, 2022

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Wonder if Seattle thinks Watson will be coming back and make a move for him.

There are so many issues regarding Watson. We don't have much precedent on them, either.

First is that he got paid. Houston gave him $74 million in guaranteed money entering the 2020 season. That's a four-year commitment and the dead money for leaving that after one season is enormous.

So you have to question if it's reasonable for a player who just signed a deal like that to demand a trade.

If I understand the situation correctly, Watson was actually paid his salary not to play in 2021. The NFL didn't act because the Texans never put him on the active roster to force the issue.

It would still be expensive to get out. Watson gets $35 million in 2022 salary. It would cost Houston $51 million in 2022 cap to cut him because that $35 million is guaranteed money, so getting out means they have to trade him.

$37 million for 2023 becomes guaranteed later this month so the exact same situation exists for next year, only this year they have to give him $35 million in salary rather than the $10.5 million he received last year.

Of course, once activated, the NFL has to deal with the allegations against Watson. He is likely facing a long suspension. But we still don't know the details and even if there's the possibility of prosecution. Watson denies any misconduct and he deserves the opportunity to defend himself.

On the other hand, if he plays like he played for the 4-12 Texans in 2020 (who were absolutely awful on defense), maybe it's all worth it. His numbers are great and he's still young.

So if Seattle wants him, we now have an idea as to how much they'll have to pay. The question is whether it's possible to do anything before the legal issues are settled. If Watson pays the accusers, the NFL has to act. If he doesn't, this will take time.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I thought Rogers's contract numbers was an alternative fact.

ETA:

Hey everyone, just wanted to clear some things up; YES I will be playing with the @packers next year, however, reports about me signing a contract are inaccurate, as are the supposed terms of the contract I “signed”. I’m very excited to be back 💪🏼 #year18❤️

— Aaron Rodgers (@AaronRodgers12) March 8, 2022

Interesting. Spotrac, which is usually fairly conservative, is reporting a $200 million, four-year deal with $153 million guaranteed. But they don't have the details added to the contracts section.

I guess if Rodgers says that's fiction, it's fiction. But where did that come from?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Interesting. Spotrac, which is usually fairly conservative, is reporting a $200 million, four-year deal with $153 million guaranteed. But they don't have the details added to the contracts section.

I guess if Rodgers says that's fiction, it's fiction. But where did that come from?

Ian Rappaport apparently.

The #Packers and MVP QB Aaron Rodgers have agreed to terms on a 4-year, $200M deal that makes him the highest paid player in NFL history, sources say. He gets a whopping $153M guaranteed and his cap number goes down. A monstrous commitment by GB for years to come. 💰 💰 💰

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 8, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Seahawks releasing Bobby Wagner.

[stevew]

I like this trade a bit less once I realized Noah Fant and George Fant were separate players.

[stevew]

Colts supposedly working in trading Wentz to Washington for a couple of 3rds. Seems a bit steep. I dunno.

[Ksyrup]

Does this mean Washington is dragging its feet on Wentz?

hey @commanders pic.twitter.com/RZqLYuIHKE

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) March 9, 2022

[NobodyHere]

Looks like the trade is official

Carson Wentz traded to Commanders: Colts send former first-round pick back to NFC East - CBSSports.com