Draft Kings (Daily fantasy football)

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Now they are top players who have access to the lineups the other top players are using and can use that data to compete against people who don't have that information.

Like I said. Enter a team on the Thursday night games for a quarter in a big tourny. You have the same information and will be able to look at all of the teams in the tourny and see the percentages owned. Plus just because a player is heavily owned in one site doesnt mean they will be heavily owned in another. The salaries and lineups are different. DK is a 2 QB format, FD is a 1. Plus they have other things that are different.

Minimal advantage at the most in these lottery style big tournys. In the smaller tournys and d-ups I see no real advantage. If you need value plays all you need to do is go to the numerous websites that give this information out for free.

[Logan]

The guy who won the $350K was making a killing on MLB games during August on FD, after having very meager results for the prior 2 years.

I don't have all the data, but there's allegedly a FD employee who was also having ridiculous results on DK at the same time that this was going on. A possible coincidence? Sure. But just as likely they were swapping the info they had access to.

It's ridiculous to try and argue that having access to that information isn't a major advantage, when way before this story broke, any article you read on basic strategy for these tournaments would make the point on how it's so important to grab volatile players who are likely to have low ownership percentages.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Senator

I've learned a little about myself playing this. I find no enjoyment in the process. I know I'm not smarter than the system in place and even though I hung on to win 80 dollars on both my bets yesterday, the process itself was not fun. And it's mainly a psychology thing. I feel I have zero control in the outcome. There is nothing to do but beg fate and chance to look kindly on me. Not a huge fan of fate and chance. I never played poker, but I think with that, your actions in game make the difference in many cases. You are an active participant in your destiny. Many, many of my friends love the adrenaline of the day, begging some running back on a team they typically despise to save the day. I don't want to root for the Giants, Redskins, or Eagles. Ever. And especially for 80 bucks. Which, I could say, hey, it's 80 bucks,write it off for fun, and just go with it. I think I would rather buy a pizza, and not give a flip how Mark Ingram does in overtime.
So, it's a mind set I guess. I love competition, and thought I would get that same feeling, but for me I don't feel I'm being competitive, just spinning a roulette wheel. I like a more hands on, decision making activity that decides my outcome. I like to say, this is my fault, I called the wrong play, or was not as good as my opponent. Here, I feel like a sheep, and even though I'm up on my investment, and never even used the matching funds, I'm cashing out. I know everyone is different, and some guys say, "hey Senator, it's just to make the day more interesting, and I don't take it so serious." Which I envy.

This is why I gave up fantasy football years ago. I hated having to root for players that I don't like. I hated being disappointed if my team scored but it wasn't the right player. I decided I enjoyed things more just being able to root for good teams and root against the teams I hate.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

The guy who won the $350K was making a killing on MLB games during August on FD, after having very meager results for the prior 2 years.

I don't have all the data, but there's allegedly a FD employee who was also having ridiculous results on DK at the same time that this was going on. A possible coincidence? Sure. But just as likely they were swapping the info they had access to.

It's ridiculous to try and argue that having access to that information isn't a major advantage, when way before this story broke, any article you read on basic strategy for these tournaments would make the point on how it's so important to grab volatile players who are likely to have low ownership percentages.

Because these big tournys are lotto style tournys. You dont need to play them. The lower owned players are that for a reason. Because they really arent good value plays and people are just trying to hit a grand slam with pokey reese. If you think about it how hard is it to figure out who will be heavily owned and who wont be? Anyone that plays regularly doesnt need insider information to be able make accurate predictions on ownership percentages.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Like I said. Enter a team on the Thursday night games for a quarter in a big tourny. You have the same information and will be able to look at all of the teams in the tourny and see the percentages owned. Plus just because a player is heavily owned in one site doesnt mean they will be heavily owned in another. The salaries and lineups are different. DK is a 2 QB format, FD is a 1. Plus they have other things that are different.

Minimal advantage at the most in these lottery style big tournys. In the smaller tournys and d-ups I see no real advantage. If you need value plays all you need to do is go to the numerous websites that give this information out for free.

You don't have access to the lineups of the top teams before the event starts. It is an enormous advantage to know what the top players are doing before the event starts.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

You don't have access to the lineups of the top teams before the event starts. It is an enormous advantage to know what the top players are doing before the event starts.

The top players get the same information that everyone else has access to. They just are able to enter more teams and take risks in taking them once a lifetime games like Matt Flynn had 5 years ago. It is the same thing that you, Logan or I could do. These tournys with 3000+ entries really should be considered gambling because there is no skill to them.

FYI the top players run shows from 8am on every Sundays. They have shows on the fantasy channel on Sirius. They have podcasts. Some of them even have pay for information sites you can subscribe to. The information is all out in the open if you want it.

[RainMaker]

There is skill to it. They are finding market inefficiencies and using it to their advantage.

The top players do have access to the same information. They aren't the issue. It's the employees who have access to more information than the general public and puts them at a huge advantage.

[digamma]

There is also "run on the bank" risk with Draft Kings and Fan Duel. As unregulated entities, they don't have to maintain deposit reserves at any level. Who knows what they are doing with the money we deposit? Paying bonuses, advertising, betting at the other site?

So long as they are growing, that's fine. But if they lose users and people request deposits in any material numbers, then you could have a Full Tilt situation where the cash on hand is not enough to cover the withdrawal requests.

Given that Disney and others have looked at or made significant investments in these companies, you would hope that they took a good look at the deposit reserve policies, but who knows...

[Logan]

I read footballguys.com pretty regularly. More the forums than the actual fantasy content these days, but anyway...David Dodds is one of the big guys over there. He's a big time DFS player as I believe he's well into the six figures wagered area and had profits over the last couple of years in the high tens of thousands. And his site had a referral relationship with FD in the past way before they were blanketing the major sites/channels/radio stations with referral codes. So not only does he have a personal stake in keeping the gravy train rolling, because of his own profits, but he has a business relationship with them.

This is what he wrote in response to this. Sorry jbergey, I value his thoughts on this more than yours given his own investment and what you would assume would be his willingness to downplay the issues.

My take on all of this:

- These sites need to encrypt the data so that it can't be queried before lineup lock. Or failure to do that, just publish LIVE % owned calculations for all to see as the people are making their lineups. Both are likely radical tweaks from how these sites operate currently.

- Having players working for one not being able to play on another site doesn't solve the problem if an employee can query the database and get that info to someone. These sites have to stop any ability for data to be queried.

- I contend that a LOT of smart people could do major damage knowing % owned from one set and applying it mathematically to a different set of numbers.

- A lot of sites like ours are trying to crack percent owned. Why would we work so hard at that? Because it's needed to determine who to go after and who to fade in the bigger GPPs. Having precise or nearly precise data is a big edge. We can try and crack it, but it's a very imprecise world that creates it in the first place (ie mentions on FBG, RotoGrinders, etc can all move it)

I have hope that both of these companies are taking this extremely seriously. As for the allegations themselves, I am not going to get into that. I don't have enough facts to know what what really happened.

[jbergey22]

Fair enough!

I had always mentioned that a stock market like game that changes the salaries based on ownership percentages would make these games more exciting and skillful. These sites claim it could never work.

[QuikSand]

Well said by DD

[jbergey22]

Previously I would have hated the idea of giving out percentages owned to the public but with how things have changed and all of the clever picks being giving out to the public anyway Id have to say I think it is a very good idea.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by digamma

There is also "run on the bank" risk with Draft Kings and Fan Duel. As unregulated entities, they don't have to maintain deposit reserves at any level. Who knows what they are doing with the money we deposit? Paying bonuses, advertising, betting at the other site?

So long as they are growing, that's fine. But if they lose users and people request deposits in any material numbers, then you could have a Full Tilt situation where the cash on hand is not enough to cover the withdrawal requests.

Given that Disney and others have looked at or made significant investments in these companies, you would hope that they took a good look at the deposit reserve policies, but who knows...

I don't think funding will be an issue. As you mentioned, they have some large capital investments and access to short term cash if needed.

The biggest issue DFS runs into is that there is too much skill involved. 91% of the baseball money went to just over 1% of the players. That 1% also makes up a huge amount of their entry fees. So to survive, they have to keep feeding the sharks. It's pretty easy right now as casual players see the TV ad and throw some money in. But if 85% are losing money as it is, how long are they going to hang around?

It'll be interesting to see how they adjust in the coming years. They'll have to find a way to level the playing field between skilled players and casual players. The gap is just too wide.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So to survive, they have to keep feeding the sharks. It's pretty easy right now as casual players see the TV ad and throw some money in. But if 85% are losing money as it is, how long are they going to hang around?

Using me and some work guys as one data point--we've talked about this over the last few months, and we've all decided to avoid these sites for this reason. We really enjoy our work fantasy league, in large part because we are all at the "engaged fan who reads Matthew Berry most weeks" level.

From what I can tell, DFS is a totally different beast. I don't see how, as a casual fan, I would be doing anything other than helping fund the syndicates putting real analysis into the market.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Previously I would have hated the idea of giving out percentages owned to the public but with how things have changed and all of the clever picks being giving out to the public anyway Id have to say I think it is a very good idea.

Wouldn't the vast majority of players just wait until the last minute to submit their lineups, if there was info to be gathered from this knowledge? You'd want the most relevant info.

So you have the squares doing this and the sharps will just come in last minute via their automated lineup changes to numerous entries with whatever those scripts they have developed can accomplish. Which is part of the problem in the first place.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

That said, some of the most popular forms of gambling (slots, lotteries) have managed just fine despite the fact that most people keep losing money on them. Maybe DFS pushes those same pleasure receptors in the brain.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Logan

Wouldn't the vast majority of players just wait until the last minute to submit their lineups, if there was info to be gathered from this knowledge? You'd want the most relevant info.

So you have the squares doing this and the sharps will just come in last minute via their automated lineup changes to numerous entries with whatever those scripts they have developed can accomplish. Which is part of the problem in the first place.

You could have a silly arms race where the sharps are all focusing their attention on developing algorithms to push their lineups later and later (and feeding bad info into the system right before they change it, etc.). But that would still at least be fair. Everyone would be playing the same game. That's fundamentally different than the insider-trading-esq stuff that seems to be going on.

I know that on Wall Street, all of the bots that the huge investment firms use for automated trading have to have the same length cable going to the NYSE computers because they have gotten so down to the nanosecond that the length of time it takes electrons to move through wire had become a relevant consideration. So it isn't like silly arms races are unprecedented.

[Logan]

Remember hearing that about cables as well. Crazy.

[RainMaker]

Slots have a much better ROI than the casual DFS player. Even lottery has a better ROI in most states.

80% of DFS players have a -50% ROI. These are baseball numbers by the way. Not sure on football yet.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Slots have a much better ROI than the casual DFS player. Even lottery has a better ROI in most states.

80% of DFS players have a -50% ROI. These are baseball numbers by the way. Not sure on football yet.

Where are you getting this information if I may ask?

I know over the past 4-5 years I have consistently brought in between 12k-28k and I am no more than a midlevel player. From all indications I have there are plenty of people out there just like me who play just enough to make a little extra cash. Unless these huge 1 million+ tournys are skewing the numbers.

[jbergey22]

Outside the Lines just had a half hour report on this.

Basically the panel all agreed that more transparency is needed. Also, many of the employees that work for each company make more playing off the different fantasy sites. So if they ban them from playing on other sites they are going to lose many of their important employees.

The lady in the panel is really the only one that understands the daily fantasy world. The other 3 had more of the take of the public perception.

[Logan]

First real domino:

ESPN pulling sponsored daily fantasy sports segments from programming | Fantasy | Sporting News

[jbergey22]

https://rotogrinders.com/threads/dra...50584?page=101

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Where are you getting this information if I may ask?

I know over the past 4-5 years I have consistently brought in between 12k-28k and I am no more than a midlevel player. From all indications I have there are plenty of people out there just like me who play just enough to make a little extra cash. Unless these huge 1 million+ tournys are skewing the numbers.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/J...sy-Sports.aspx

This is just from baseball season. Not sure if anyone has done one with the new football season yet and all the new fish.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Logan

First real domino:

ESPN pulling sponsored daily fantasy sports segments from programming | Fantasy | Sporting News

ESPN or Disney? I know it's technically ESPN but if you think they made the call on this one then you probably believe the internal investigation going on with DK or FD.

[ColtCrazy]

A pseudo-gambling site where people use money to try to win more money suddenly has some questionable shenanigans? I'm shocked!

Put a quarter in one of those grabbing machines to show my boys how these things are rigged (it got perfectly around the minion only to see the claws slip away as if the minion was coated in butter). I tend to be skeptical at any game of chance.

I couldn't care less if there's sites like this and people want to use their money on them. I'm more annoyed that the sites are constantly being advertised and announcers even refer to player projections as if it's part of the Xs and Os of the game.

[RainMaker]

I mean I'm happy this is legal, I just wish it was consistent. Don't understand why it's legal for me to gamble on how well a player does but not gamble on how well a team does.

[dubb93]

I play fantasy fairly casually with my buddies. I'm annoyed by all the DFS coverage. I'm also annoyed that the "fantasy shows" spend atleast as much time (and probably actually a little more) dedicated to DFS and cheap finds than they do traditional fantasy. If anything is going to kill fantasy football for me it is going to be DFS and the explosion of coverage dedicated to it.

If I'm watching a fantasy show I want to know who I can grab off the waiver wire or why I should start a certain guy. I don't want to know that 100 guys who are rostered in every fantasy league are sneaky plays this week in DFS.

[EagleFan]

Week 4 Results
1) muns 160.66
2) Chief Rum 154.06
3) EagleFan 146.96
4) murrayyyyy 144.94
5) Comey 142.16
6) SegRat 138.34
7) Lathum 117.96
8) Dutch 109.66
9) kingfc22 104.54
10) Julio Riddols 98.94
11) jbergey 92.16
12) Suicane 76.1

[EagleFan]

Sent out invites for a 12 team pro and an 8 team college league.

[SegRat]

I would play again

[nol]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

ESPN or Disney? I know it's technically ESPN but if you think they made the call on this one then you probably believe the internal investigation going on with DK or FD.

Consider it believed. New York Attorney General Opens Inquiry into Daily Fantasy Sites

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by nol

Consider it believed. New York Attorney General Opens Inquiry into Daily Fantasy Sites

Meaningless.

You are asking a company to do an internal investigation. They will cover things up to protect themselves. Just look at how well the NFL's own internal investigations have gone as of late. So if dk doesn't list an employee who plays at fd, what power/access does the AG have in New York to find out this info from fd?

[Suicane75]

Bah, I set a placeholder lineup and then forgot to change it. Got em in for this week already though.

[bhlloy]

Personally I do think the advantage of being able to see the lineups as they come in is probably a little overblown. For every week 3 Devonta Freeman or Travis Benjamin that only 0.1% of users picked and killed it, there's hundreds of guys that nobody picked that did absolutely fuck all. You'd still need to be nostradamus to pick a winning line up with that strategy.

Where I do think there's probably more of an advantage is being able to have the data at your fingertips of say the top 500 entries in every tournament stretching back to the start of the site. I would imagine you can build some very good trends with that and start to come up with a nice model of successful DFS teams. And that effect is probably magnified when it comes to baseball, which has a ton of contests each day/week over a 162 game season.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Personally I do think the advantage of being able to see the lineups as they come in is probably a little overblown. For every week 3 Devonta Freeman or Travis Benjamin that only 0.1% of users picked and killed it, there's hundreds of guys that nobody picked that did absolutely fuck all. You'd still need to be nostradamus to pick a winning line up with that strategy.

Where I do think there's probably more of an advantage is being able to have the data at your fingertips of say the top 500 entries in every tournament stretching back to the start of the site. I would imagine you can build some very good trends with that and start to come up with a nice model of successful DFS teams. And that effect is probably magnified when it comes to baseball, which has a ton of contests each day/week over a 162 game season.

+1

[EagleFan]

I don't get it, but I see it every week. Players draft a team of all, or almost all, Thursday game players. Yes, they lead after Thursday but it is short lived once the games start Sunday. Why do that?

[jbergey22]

Still need just 1 more to fill the college game.

[muns]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I don't get it, but I see it every week. Players draft a team of all, or almost all, Thursday game players. Yes, they lead after Thursday but it is short lived once the games start Sunday. Why do that?

There had to be one time where someone won big money by doing that, otherwise like you I cant figure out why anyone would be doing that

[JonInMiddleGA]

So much for any immediate negative impact I suppose
Daily fantasy sites DraftKings, FanDuel take in highest number of entries this NFL season

Interesting to see the confirmation that, yes, they really are that incessant in terms of advertising though.

[frnk55]

I'm so sick of those damn commercials!! Radio too!

[Julio Riddols]

Enter promo code MOUSTACHE RIDE.. Thats promo code MOUSTACHE RIDE.

[Julio Riddols]

I think I have found my ticket. The three player, winner take all $2 leagues.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I don't get it, but I see it every week. Players draft a team of all, or almost all, Thursday game players. Yes, they lead after Thursday but it is short lived once the games start Sunday. Why do that?

New players that are confused about the daily fantasy marketing campaign?

[kingfc22]

And so it begins: http://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-just...del-1444865627

[Comey]

We doing a tourney this week?

[EagleFan]

Sorry, will put one together today.

[Comey]

Don't apologize. I wasn't sure.

[murrayyyyy]

I wondered when this was coming...

Daily fantasy sports sites ordered to shut down in Nevada

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

I wondered when this was coming...

Daily fantasy sports sites ordered to shut down in Nevada

Not a surprise. Casinos own the politicians in that state and they don't like competition.