2024 NFL Season Thread

[albionmoonlight]

It's the Jets. Rodgers merely being bad after his injury would not be nearly enough dramatic WTF pain for those poor fans.

I think that instead, he'll start playing like an MVP and the Jets will be in contention for the #1 seed, and then he'll suddenly retire from football in protest of, like, RFK not getting enough votes so Rodgers does not believe in America anymore or some shit like that.

That would be Jetsy!

[flere-imsaho]

There's no way this ends well for Jets fans:

Trump wins: RFK convinces DJT to nominate Rodgers for Secretary of the interior and so he retires from football in early January to go through the nomination hearings.

Harris wins: On 20 January, Rodgers leaves for a month-long mental health retreat in a cave in Borneo to "cleanse his aura".

[Ksyrup]

I believe Malik Willis has already gained more yards against the Titans than he did in his entire Titans career.

[Ksyrup]

Looks like the Vikings and Darnold are for real.

Also, while I'm not at all a fan of how the NBA manufactures chaos at the end of games with the TO and advance the ball to half court nonsense, I feel like the NFL has gone too far the other way by making comebacks almost impossible with the new kickoff rules and even more neutered onsides kick rules. I don't think anyone has tried an onsides kick despite a couple of teams being in a situation in which you almost certainly would have done so in previous years. I don't think I like that.

[dubb93]

I really don’t know why I still play fantasy football. I have Tua, McCaffrey, Puka, and Evan Engram in a 12 team big money league if you want to know how my season is going.

[Solecismic]

It's interesting to see three QBs in new situations this season, Darnold, Fields and Willis, all in action in the early games and all putting together solid winning performances. All three are games that they probably wouldn't have won for their original teams.

Fields in particular, as that game was on here and he wasn't a running threat. He was throwing quite accurately, though I'd hesitate to say he's completely turned the corner on decision-making. Just that his motion looks very clean now.

Given that quarterback play drives football and being able to make decisions quickly is as important as being able to make throws, I'm wondering how to process this. All three are guys I had pretty much written off as backups... if that.

As far as how that translates to the engine, what I did with 9 when I rewrote it was I tried to assess contribution based on the percentage of salary cap going to established starters at each position. I figured the guys who do roster for a living have much more information about this than I could ever process. For example, last year, the cap, minus dead money, was about $210 million. A reasonable starting quarterback averaged about $30 million (figuring in the young ones on rookie contracts) and you're spending about $90-$100 million on offensive starters. Give part of your offensive line and your running back to the running game, take a shade off of quarterback for that, since it's part of that, varying by team. Rushing offense is about a third of your offense. So it's reasonable to say that maybe 40-45% of your passing game is the quarterback.

But... that does not factor in coaching. And how do you do that? Let's say Tomlin is the reason Fields is looking like a new man this year. How do turn that into a simulation without it seeming absurdly random and not fun at all? Because if that's the case, it would be an entirely different game to get a coach like Tomlin on your team - or realize that Fields is a quarterback who needs a coach like Tomlin to reach his potential. If you go too far, FOF starts to resemble one of those old-time war games with thousands of little squares of cardboard and charts.

Reality is difficult. Thousands of decisions to make when deciding what should be in a sim and what should not.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Looks like the Vikings and Darnold are for real.

I'm so happy to see Darnold to have success, even though I'm not confident he can keep it up like this I think he can get them to the playoffs.

He was one of the most fun QB's I've ever watched in college. He might be my favorite still. He was Caleb Williams for SC except he developed under Clay Helton not Lincoln Riley. He committed when Max Browne was the #1 recruit in the country and they tried to convert him to LB before his freshman season. He then took the job over and put in some of the most absurd put the team on his back performances you've ever seen, culminating in I think my favorite game ever in the Rose Bowl vs Penn State. He single handedly is the reason Clay Helton is still in college football and not the offensive co-ordinator at some podunk school in rural Mississippi. Then the Jets happened, which I think enough has been written about.

Speaking of Caleb, woof that Bears offense is absolutely awful. They might want to change the coaching up at mid season or they'll be picking another QB in the top 3 in a couple of years again.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

and being able to make decisions quickly is as important as being able to make throws

Anthony Richardson is really challenging this by making the right reads but overthrowing open guys resulting in multiple interceptions per game. Not to mention all the misses of open guys on third down as well.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Speaking of Caleb, woof that Bears offense is absolutely awful. They might want to change the coaching up at mid season or they'll be picking another QB in the top 3 in a couple of years again.

The interior line is atrocious. They can't run the ball because the center and right guard get blown up on nearly every play. Coaching isn't fixing that and I'm not sold on Waldron being an issue. He's been one of the top now jead coach play callers the past couple of years but lack of run game is making everything painful.

I think Williams will be fine. His growth over 3 games is evident and what he's doing pre snap is rare for a guy so young. He's the first qb the bears have ever had that I don't have many concerns about actually.


Edit: I always felt Fields' biggest problem was his anticipation was non existent. He needed guys to be wide open and DJ Moore was thr only guy capable of that in Chicago.

[Ksyrup]

I didn't think Bryce Young could look even worse than he has considering he's not playing today, but Dalton stepping in and throwing 3 1st half TDs is like a short-term referendum on whether Young should ever take another snap in the NFL, it feels like.

[dubb93]

Idk how he’s going to end up but watching Williams today the potential is evident. They really need to fix that O Line.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I didn't think Bryce Young could look even worse than he has considering he's not playing today, but Dalton stepping in and throwing 3 1st half TDs is like a short-term referendum on whether Young should ever take another snap in the NFL, it feels like.

Just listening to someone on the radio saying the Dolphins should pull the trigger on a trade to get Young.

[Ksyrup]

That would be an interesting in-season data point for what Jim is talking about. Not that it would answer any questions on evaluation, but I'd love to see that kind of real life experiment because Young has looked terrible and has to be as low in confidence as possible.

[dubb93]

Young QBs are really over valued right now in the NFL IMO. I feel like alot of teams are starting worse options than they could have if they just started another teams older backup. I know this has always been a thing to an extent but it’s just like right in your face right now I feel like.

[Ksyrup]

Time for the Dolphins to pick up somebody - Skylar Thompson hurt now.

[miami_fan]

I have no opinion on Tom Brady as an announcer as I have not listened to him enough. But come on Tom, you can't be the guy who says that you preferred to have positive body language when your team was getting drugged 21-3. The only reason I know about the Microsoft Surface is because of you.

[larrymcg421]

I just looked at Tim Boyle's college stats - 1 TD, 13 INT. How the fuck is he in the NFL?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I just looked at Tim Boyle's college stats - 1 TD, 13 INT. How the fuck is he in the NFL?

You are missing his senior season. He tossed 11 TDs to 13 INTs his senior season at Eastern Kentucky.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by dubb93

You are missing his senior season. He tossed 11 TDs to 13 INTs his senior season at Eastern Kentucky.

Ah, the site I was using was missing his Senior season for some reason. So that's still 12 TD, 26 INT.

There have to be better guys around to take up spots on NFL rosters or even practice squads.

[GrantDawg]

Dalton is killing Vegas.

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[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Looks like the Vikings and Darnold are for real.

Also, while I'm not at all a fan of how the NBA manufactures chaos at the end of games with the TO and advance the ball to half court nonsense, I feel like the NFL has gone too far the other way by making comebacks almost impossible with the new kickoff rules and even more neutered onsides kick rules. I don't think anyone has tried an onsides kick despite a couple of teams being in a situation in which you almost certainly would have done so in previous years. I don't think I like that.

And you post this, then the Cowboys recovers an onside kick.

[cuervo72]

Refs not helping Baltimore any.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Young QBs are really over valued right now in the NFL IMO. I feel like alot of teams are starting worse options than they could have if they just started another teams older backup. I know this has always been a thing to an extent but it’s just like right in your face right now I feel like.

This. They are valued like a 13-14 year 3X Pro Bowl veteran if you check out what is happening on the visitor's sideline in Las Vegas.

I don't think Bryce Young is ready to play in the NFL. I am not sure he will ever be ready to be honest unless he grows 4-5 inches and puts on 25 lbs. But I think it is time to stop expecting every first or second QB to win games with no running game, no quality receivers and/or no O-line.

I echo the early praise for Fields, Darnold and Davis. It is especially Davis for me. That coaching staff in Green Bay are performing miracles right now as far as I am concerned.

[Solecismic]

There's a bar of competence for quarterbacks in the NFL. It's rather high. So teams that don't have one get a bit desperate, like taking Kenny Pickett in the first round of a draft that otherwise featured only Brock Purdy.

On the other side of the coin, you see 11 different quarterbacks from 2024 drafted and more than 20 others invited to training camp. What you don't see is names from 2022 and 2023 invited to camp who were released and not part of practice squads last year.

You scout for the draft. You get a guy in camp, facing real NFL talent and you evaluate. That's why Tim Boyle is employed. He's backup-competent at NFL speed (Miami's still screwed).

Interesting stat from my database. I have college numbers for 383 quarterbacks drafted, or with NFL experience, from 1998 onward. Only one (Boyle, at 78) has a career college quarterback rating under 100, and he didn't even play major college ball. There's also nothing in his limited performances in the NFL (he has an 0-5 record in five starts, and his YPAS is 4.53 in 192 dropbacks) that suggests he can run the store. But he's been around consistently since 2018 for a reason, and we'll probably never see it.

[CrimsonFox]

here's some people avaialble.

Ryan Tannehill
Trevor Siemian
Kellen Mond
Max Duggan
Nate Sudfeld
Desmond Ridder
P.J. Walker
C.J. Beathard

and I hear Colin Kaepernick is up for anything

[GrantDawg]

Falcons march right down the field and scored. Can we call the game now? Please?

[Swaggs]

The Steelers start out 3-0, with two road wins, and seem like they may be legit as long as their big 3 (Watt, Hayward, and Minkah) on defense stay healthy. Their record has been pretty excellent when Watt, in particular, has been in the lineup and healthy. But their schedule is Jekyll and Hyde the rest of the way.

Their next six games are @Indy, Dallas, @LV, Giants, Jets, and @Washington. So, they could conceivably be something like 7-2 before finishing with all six AFC North games, plus @Philly and KC in their last 8.

What do we think an extension for Fields is going to look like for them? Not a decision I would want to touch as a GM.

[GrantDawg]

Simmons is in Mahomes' head.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What do we think an extension for Fields is going to look like for them? Not a decision I would want to touch as a GM.

Luckily, they won't have to make that decision for awhile. What happens the rest of the year will make that determination. If he stays steady, it will probably look like Baker Mayfield's extension in Tampa (3 years, $100 million). There is a long way from there to here, though. He could be looking at more if he really starts balling by the end of the season, but on the flip if he falls off it might be another 1 year deal.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Falcons march right down the field and scored. Can we call the game now? Please?

Falcons doing well. Cousins is 6/6 with 1 TD right now. Hope it keeps up

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I really don’t know why I still play fantasy football. I have Tua, McCaffrey, Puka, and Evan Engram in a 12 team big money league if you want to know how my season is going.

oof!

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dalton is killing Vegas.

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Who knew that's all Carolina needed

[GrantDawg]

Right tackle goes down, now the center. This is a problem.

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[GrantDawg]

That was two great defensive series for the Falcons, but the offense is in real trouble with the OL injuries.

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[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Time for the Dolphins to pick up somebody - Skylar Thompson hurt now.

My fantasy QBs this season: Love, Tua, the Skylar as a replacement. It’s going well.

[larrymcg421]

Terrible missed PI against Pitts.

[GrantDawg]

Well, when you play the Chiefs, you know you are playing against the refs as well.

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[GrantDawg]

Weak make-up call. That doesn't make up what should have been first and goal at the one, ref.

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[Ksyrup]

The Chiefs should be 0-3. I don't know if that means they are even better than usual for having won 3 games they should have lost.

Meanwhile, Travis Kelce appears headed for mediocrity pretty quickly. I'm sure he's not fully done and will have some big days here and there, but it's funny how so many people are going to point to Taylor Swift instead of 34. He has been a non-factor for 3 games. I think he has 8 catches, less than 75 yards, and no TDs.

[Edward64]

Oh well, nice try anyway.

Looks like Cousins is getting slowly getting the rust off. Not fantastic but okay performance. Bijan had a rough day.

[albionmoonlight]

All I need tonight is for Mike Gesicki to outscore Josh Allen by 11.9 points, and I'll win the week in fantasy.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Oh well, nice try anyway.

Looks like Cousins is getting slowly getting the rust off. Not fantastic but okay performance. Bijan had a rough day.

It is a tough loss to take, but I didn't go in expecting a win. The fact they held in there, even after losing the starting right tackle and center says a lot. The defense just seems to do just enough to stay in games, but the offense still needs to take a step forward. They are among the worst in the league at 3rd downs, and that has to change to have any hope of winning consistently. Cousins is getting comfortable playing at speed, but he lacks chemistry with his receivers. If he and London or Pitts can get on the same page, I think the offense will finally start clicking.

[albionmoonlight]

Cousins goes to London when he needs a play.

Which raises the question . . . why not just go to London all of the time?

He's the best receiver, and he's clearly the one Cousins trusts the most. But he seems to ignore him for 3/4 of the game.

(Yes, I own London in fantasy)

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

And, GrandDawg, I think that this NO/ATL game will be huge inasmuch as both teams need a palate cleansing win after a tough "should have won" loss this past week.

[thesloppy]

I had a good time solo at the Lions/Cards game yesterday (sorry about the result Thomkal and Cards fans), and also I never ever want to do that again.

• I didn't get a ton of sleep, or any really, because I got too fired up (and drank too much caffeine), but also because I had to get up at 4:30am
• My flight left PDX at 5:50am, that was the only one that got in before gametime, so I had to waste like 5 hours on the ground.
• I took ubers to and from the stadium and vastly underestimated the demand pricing on return.
• The amount of Lions fans was nuts. To my eyes, walking around in the tailgate, it looked like the jerseys on fans were 3-1 Lions, and there were regular chants of Let's Go Lions and/or Jared Goff. Maybe Lions fans are the new Steeler fans? They are starving for success.
• That hook and lateral play was awesome.
• Because it was Latino heritage something the halftime show was a traditional mariachi band and dancers. It was awesome. Way better than the usual schlock.
• No scoring at all in the second half, and I spent that entire time expecting the Lions to lose, like the old days.
• I had to waste 3 more hours before returning home, and ate some horrible but expensive airport food.
• Finally lifted off late at 8:30PM, landed back in Portland at 11:15 and got home at 12:15am.
• I again vastly underestimated how uncomfortable the seating would be for every bit of that and my back is now a pretzel.

Lookit all those blue jerseys

[Ksyrup]

My daughter badly wants to go see the Lions. Closest game is near the end of the season in Indy. I just ... have no interest in the whole rigamarole involved with travelling, paying for expensive tickets, etc. Not to mention, it's a late season game so it could get flexed. I don't need that kind of uncertainty, nor a possible stay in Indy on a Sunday night.

The flipside is that we're also Denver fans, and I am going to a conference in mid-November when the Broncos are home against the Falcons. I may go because I'll be there. My daughter is pissed, to say the least. Even though I'll be there, I still don't know whether it's worth the hassle - although I've never been to a Broncos home game.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

My daughter badly wants to go see the Lions. Closest game is near the end of the season in Indy. I just ... have no interest in the whole rigamarole involved with travelling, paying for expensive tickets, etc. Not to mention, it's a late season game so it could get flexed. I don't need that kind of uncertainty, nor a possible stay in Indy on a Sunday night.

The flipside is that we're also Denver fans, and I am going to a conference in mid-November when the Broncos are home against the Falcons. I may go because I'll be there. My daughter is pissed, to say the least. Even though I'll be there, I still don't know whether it's worth the hassle - although I've never been to a Broncos home game.

Yeah, I went to that game in Arizona, specifically because it was cheaper to get the tickets and fly in then to just buy tickets anywhere else, and like I said I really didn't account for some of the extra costs, so it was probably $500-600 all told, and I was uncomfortable the whole time. Fun once, but it also renewed my appreciation for watching from the couch. Thank God they didn't lose.

[Ksyrup]

My thought on the Denver game is I'll be in Denver, so I can watch it on TV locally. Maybe even go to a bar and enjoy the game with other fans. Certainly a cheaper, less time-consuming alternative.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I had a good time solo at the Lions/Cards game yesterday (sorry about the result Thomkal and Cards fans), and also I never ever want to do that again.

• I didn't get a ton of sleep, or any really, because I got too fired up (and drank too much caffeine), but also because I had to get up at 4:30am
• My flight left PDX at 5:50am, that was the only one that got in before gametime, so I had to waste like 5 hours on the ground.
• I took ubers to and from the stadium and vastly underestimated the demand pricing on return.
• The amount of Lions fans was nuts. To my eyes, walking around in the tailgate, it looked like the jerseys on fans were 3-1 Lions, and there were regular chants of Let's Go Lions and/or Jared Goff. Maybe Lions fans are the new Steeler fans? They are starving for success.
• That hook and lateral play was awesome.
• Because it was Latino heritage something the halftime show was a traditional mariachi band and dancers. It was awesome. Way better than the usual schlock.
• No scoring at all in the second half, and I spent that entire time expecting the Lions to lose, like the old days.
• I had to waste 3 more hours before returning home, and ate some horrible but expensive airport food.
• Finally lifted off late at 8:30PM, landed back in Portland at 11:15 and got home at 12:15am.
• I again vastly underestimated how uncomfortable the seating would be for every bit of that and my back is now a pretzel.

Lookit all those blue jerseys

I should be mad at you for the Lions win, but I guess the story and pics are a good trade. Really unhappy that my Cards couldn't get any offense going in the 2nd half-thought Harrison would be more dominant there, but we lost to a good team, so partially ok with the loss I guess

[Arles]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I had a good time solo at the Lions/Cards game yesterday (sorry about the result Thomkal and Cards fans), and also I never ever want to do that again.

• I didn't get a ton of sleep, or any really, because I got too fired up (and drank too much caffeine), but also because I had to get up at 4:30am
• My flight left PDX at 5:50am, that was the only one that got in before gametime, so I had to waste like 5 hours on the ground.
• I took ubers to and from the stadium and vastly underestimated the demand pricing on return.
• The amount of Lions fans was nuts. To my eyes, walking around in the tailgate, it looked like the jerseys on fans were 3-1 Lions, and there were regular chants of Let's Go Lions and/or Jared Goff. Maybe Lions fans are the new Steeler fans? They are starving for success.
• That hook and lateral play was awesome.
• Because it was Latino heritage something the halftime show was a traditional mariachi band and dancers. It was awesome. Way better than the usual schlock.
• No scoring at all in the second half, and I spent that entire time expecting the Lions to lose, like the old days.
• I had to waste 3 more hours before returning home, and ate some horrible but expensive airport food.
• Finally lifted off late at 8:30PM, landed back in Portland at 11:15 and got home at 12:15am.
• I again vastly underestimated how uncomfortable the seating would be for every bit of that and my back is now a pretzel.

Lookit all those blue jerseys

The problem in AZ has always been all the transplants from the midwest. Any Chicago, Wisconsin/GB, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, even Detroit team that plays here has fans coming out of the woodwork. Between September and May, I think half the population here is from the midwest (if not more). Of course, I am one of those originally from Illinois.