The Biden Presidency - 2020

[PilotMan]

McConnell comes out swinging by calling the president's remarks...."unpresidential" and "beneath his office" and " incoherent".

Funny how this never came up with the last guy who all of those literally fell into.

[Kodos]

Maybe if Biden had mentioned preserving voting rights by injecting light he might have sounded more sensible...

[Edward64]

With the latest Supreme Court ruling about big businesses not allowed to mandate, what does that mean for those that were already laid off because they did not vaccinate?

[molson]

It just went into effect on Monday, I'm not sure anyone was actually laid off as a result of it yet.

Companies who laid off people before then were doing it on their own.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

With the latest Supreme Court ruling about big businesses not allowed to mandate, what does that mean for those that were already laid off because they did not vaccinate?

That was not what the ruling was. It struck the OSHA requirement. Businesses still can require vaccines, but OSHA can't fine companies who don't.

[JPhillips]

From the anti-CRT bill in VA:

3. The founding documents of the United States, including the Declaration of Independence, the United States Constitution, the Federalist Papers, including Essays 10 and 51, excerpts from Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America, the first debate between Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass, and the writings of the Founding Fathers of the United States.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

From the anti-CRT bill in VA:

Ok, I had to look up the debates to see what it was about. There were articles about it and thought...I don't remember hearing anything about Fredrick Douglass and Lincoln debating. That's a pretty big omission.


Then I read one of the articles and had to laugh at myself.

[sterlingice]

Abe Lincoln, time traveler?

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That was not what the ruling was. It struck the OSHA requirement. Businesses still can require vaccines, but OSHA can't fine companies who don't.

I thought this was the mandate that provided employers "cover from being sued"?

This way companies could require testing/vaccination or else get let an employee go. It had already been implemented. And then lower courts got involved, then got paused, and then finally SCOTUS.

True that business can still require vaccines but unsure if companies are really willing to do that as I can see disgruntled employees suing.

[PilotMan]

Republicans have spend years specifically making it easier for companies to fire people, and saying that companies have near unlimited freedom to decide what they do with their employees. They have forcefully weakened unions and collective bargaining.

So here....same thing. Companies have broad discretion and leeway to do as they see fit, only now the shoe is on the other foot, and those very same people are mad that they are being 'forced' into doing it.

Even with collective bargaining groups like my own, our own national lawyers said months ago that the review of applicable precedents allowed the company to make such decisions and there was nothing legally that prohibited them from doing so.

The larger question will be how the SCOTUS allows for exempting individuals via 'religious exemptions' (which are 100% total bullshit imo), and some sort of reasonable accommodation process.

I still can't wait until all these religious freedom rulings are truly tested by people who want something completely antithetical to Christianity.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I still can't wait until all these religious freedom rulings are truly tested by people who want something completely antithetical to Christianity.

They will say it doesn't count. The court has ruled many times that religious exemptions only really apply to Christians.

[Edward64]

Was thinking the other day about all the "crisis, bad stuff" that Biden is dealing with right now. Here's my list

1) Covid and Omicron uptick, SCOTUS denying his Mandate
2) Economy, markets - inflation, stagflation concerns etc.
3) Russia vs Ukraine, Putin
4) BBB failure & figuring out what to do next (and basically Manchin & Sinema)
5) Voting rights failure & fallout

Somewhat lessor but could escalate quickly or hurt him politically

10) Crazy NK kid shooting off a missile
11) Continued drama with Hunter
12) Kamala's weakness (real or perceived)
13) Iran nuclear deal

Other things I'd like him to get do but unlikely right now

20) Immigration
21) Gun Control
22) Healthcare (there were some in BBB but that was shot down)

His approval is 42.2% right now according to 538 aggregator. He is pretty weak ...

[Edward64]

Think you can do better than Biden? Check out this simulator. Lots of Very Positive so may have to buy it

Democracy 4 on Steam

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Think you can do better than Biden? Check out this simulator. Lots of Very Positive so may have to buy it

Democracy 4 on Steam

I've owned previous versions, but it has always failed to really grab me. I imagine others might really like it. It is very spreadsheet-y.

[flere-imsaho]

I think the challenge Biden has as a President in this point in time is that he's fundamentally a legislator, and used to getting stuff done through the legislative process, with all that entails around process and consensus.

Given the make-up of the Senate, however, none of that is really going to work. So, what a President should be doing now is a) making liberal use of the power available to the Executive (nothing sketchy, just things like directing agencies to do things a certain way, issuing executive orders, etc...) and recognizing you're in a PR battle with the GOP and waging a war against that.

I don't think he likes the former (because process, respect for institutions) and I don't think he has the nous for the latter (because he's never had to develop it, even in Congress, per his history).

[JPhillips]

Any discussion of worker shortages should include this.

The collapse of legal immigration. pic.twitter.com/1OsOkhm8o0

— The Alex Nowrasteh (@AlexNowrasteh) January 11, 2022

[Brian Swartz]

Nah, the numbers involved aren't high enough to be more than marginally relevant. The data I've seen seems to indicate the most sizable part of the labor issue is an increased number of people opting for early retirement. To a degree, that will make it a temporary issue most likely.

[NobodyHere]

Still though increasing legal immigration is probably one of the best tools the government has to alleviate the labor shortage. It won't fix it entirely of course but a positive step is a positive step.

[JPhillips]

It's 500k to 1mil in decreased immigration since 2018. That's a lot of workers not in the labor pool now.

[Edward64]

Increasing legal immigration is a long term fix. It won't help labor shortage in near term (e.g. 1-2 years).

But I'm all for greatly increasing it and also temp guest workers.

Unfortunately, don't think there will be an appetite for an all encompassing immigration rework. But think Dems & GOP can come to consensus on specific, targeted stuff like guest workers and fixing H1-B.

[flere-imsaho]

Alternatively, the GOP, when they get back in full power in 2024, may succeed in stripping away all social welfare programs and worker protections and everyone will have to go back into the labor pool to survive.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think increasing immigration is even a long-term fix. The economy needs to be agile enough to adjust to fluctuations in the amount of available labor, because that's going to keep on happening regardless of the pandemic, and there's no way an even perfectly-run immigration policy is going to be able to adequately anticipate those needs in time to handle them. Shifting demographics is just a natural phenomenon.

Yes, immigration helps, just saying it's a band-aid instead of a real solution. Not to mention that relying on other countries to train the proper amounts and proportions of workers we need with the right skills is problematic on multiple levels, both practically and IMO morally.

I think the more relevant question is why aren't we better at adjusting to these kinds of circumstances as a country.

[RainMaker]

I don't really see a labor shortage issue. If people are opting for early retirement or other reasons to not enter the labor market, it's because the compensation is not worth their time.

Also, any short-term labor issues is due to a highly contagious virus ripping through the country. When you have half a million people testing positive a day, that's a lot of people unable to show up to work. Not to mention the people they've exposed or who have to care for them.

[miami_fan]

https://apnews.com/article/business-...5acf4491813c1b

I LOL'd as I read this despite how ridiculous it is.

The bill is called “Individual Freedom.” Republican Sen. Manny Diaz, its sponsor, said it is not about ignoring the “dark” parts of American history, but rather ensuring that people are not blamed for sins of the past.

I see what you did there Sen. Diaz.

[BYU 14]

Well he certainly worded that well didn't he?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think increasing immigration is even a long-term fix. The economy needs to be agile enough to adjust to fluctuations in the amount of available labor, because that's going to keep on happening regardless of the pandemic, and there's no way an even perfectly-run immigration policy is going to be able to adequately anticipate those needs in time to handle them. Shifting demographics is just a natural phenomenon.

Yes, immigration helps, just saying it's a band-aid instead of a real solution. Not to mention that relying on other countries to train the proper amounts and proportions of workers we need with the right skills is problematic on multiple levels, both practically and IMO morally.

Demographic wise we are not making enough babies, and not keeping up with STEM (and some other areas). Putting more emphasis on skills based vs family based immigration will certainly help long term. Increasing guest workers will also help in the jobs that Americans don't want.

If demographics is a major driver of this (which I believe it is), then targeted immigration policies will certainly help long-term IMO. If we were to enact legislation to make permanent residency/citizenship easier for college graduates (not just international students in the US & factoring security concerns) in critical fields (e.g. STEM, nursing), we would increase our human capital significantly.

It will increase our competitiveness and hurt other countries with the old cliche "brain drain".

I think the more relevant question is why aren't we better at adjusting to these kinds of circumstances as a country.

TBF I don't think many people predicted mass resignation/retirement a year ago. The demographic trend was predicted but not this mass scale resignation/retirement in the past 1+ year.

But its here now and don't see much that we are doing to blunt it other than proposing more spending and/or reduce spending. But those don't really help the baseline supply of human capital (e.g. babies, more people).

[JPhillips]

No, Sen. Manchin, nobody would keep people from voting.

The Texas Secretary of State’s office will be sending out fewer voter registration forms this year because of a “paper shortage” and “the cost constraints due to the price of paper and the supply of paper,” according to the office’s spokesperson.

[NobodyHere]

I'm sure there will be no form shortages in Red counties.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'm sure there will be no form shortages in Red counties.

or counties with a low percentage of minorities

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

or counties with a low percentage of minorities

He already said "red counties"

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Demographic wise we are not making enough babies, and not keeping up with STEM (and some other areas). Putting more emphasis on skills based vs family based immigration will certainly help long term. Increasing guest workers will also help in the jobs that Americans don't want.

If demographics is a major driver of this (which I believe it is), then targeted immigration policies will certainly help long-term IMO. If we were to enact legislation to make permanent residency/citizenship easier for college graduates (not just international students in the US & factoring security concerns) in critical fields (e.g. STEM, nursing), we would increase our human capital significantly.

It will increase our competitiveness and hurt other countries with the old cliche "brain drain".

We already do a bunch of H-1B in tech and other industries to keep wages lower. Companies put out listings with ridiculous requirements in the US and vastly below market average wages and then say there are no workers available. Then they import workers for low wages despite the fact that H-1B workers are supposed to make the same as the other workers in the company. It's well documented (just a couple of examples) but the DoL isn't stepping in. And the workers aren't going to because, if you just came here from another country and the company controls your visa, are you going to challenge that? Hell no.

We still get a ton of intellectual talent coming here from the university system - it's probably been our biggest driver for decades. It's a legit competitive advantage in the mental marketplace - you want that degree from an American institution, at least until we break them or other countries catch up in a more substantial fashion (and they are).

But I think we also have a huge perception problem. First off, staying in your native country is a huge draw - it's home and you're probably well off and comfortable there. So there needs to be a big enticement to move. If you are a top performer in a, I dunno, what do we think is the "second tier" of countries? BRIC? It's not like they are some hellscape compared to the USA. Upward mobility is still there-ish, but shrinking, and local wages have stagnated since the 70s. And have you looked at what living in the US looks like the last few year... couple decad... our history? Especially if you're not white (not that it's a picnic in other parts of the world - I get that, too)?

Just picking some random metrics: Life expectancy, per capita income, cost of living, poverty rate, infant mortality, internet speeds, percentage of users with internet, and happiness index. We're pretty good on most of them, like around 20th. But 20th, not #1. And there's a lot of good with bad - like wages are in the top 10 but, even with those wages, we're in the 30s for cost of living and we're quite a ways down on poverty rate (I stopped counting but we're outside the top 50), above India and Brazil but below China and Russia, because our cost of living is so high.

The long and short is that if you're an "in demand" immigrant, you have lots of suitors. Why would you come to the US vs Europe? Health care, college, shorter working weeks, more vacation with the latter. We'll give you fewer social benefits because our social safety net is crappy compared to most other "developed" countries but we'll also reward you by paying you less than your local peers but you still have to live with our high cost of living. What a deal!

SI

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

He already said "red counties"

SI

Just stating the obvious

But, this does bring forth an interesting question. Would blue counties that are predominately white be affected as much as blue counties that are not?

[JPhillips]

It's just mind-boggling as an American to see that a party may bring down the UK government. That wouldn't rate on the top 100 scandals here during the past two years.

[I. J. Reilly]

It’s apples to oranges, but a dinner almost brought down Newsom.

[JPhillips]

But not really. The recall wasn't close.

[spleen1015]

Shit. Trump's party at the WH gave a bunch of people Covid, himself included. Then, while he had it, he knowingly exposed his opponent to it and half the country wishes he would have given to Biden to kill him.

[cuervo72]

It's a whole lot easier to bounce a Prime Minister than a President. President, as we've seen, can just go "I don't care" and be fine.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Demographic wise we are not making enough babies, and not keeping up with STEM (and some other areas). Putting more emphasis on skills based vs family based immigration will certainly help long term. Increasing guest workers will also help in the jobs that Americans don't want.

This is not really true and is mostly propaganda from corporate lobbyists. There are plenty of skilled workers in this country. Companies just don't want to pay them their fair market rate and want to flood it with more people to drive down salaries.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This is not really true and is mostly propaganda from corporate lobbyists. There are plenty of skilled workers in this country. Companies just don't want to pay them their fair market rate and want to flood it with more people to drive down salaries.

When the most effective way to get a raise in your current IT job is to take a job somewhere else for higher pay and then reapply to your old position a year or 2 later there's a problem.

It's the advice I commonly see given to people in IT and I've seen it done far too many times to count.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Atocep

When the most effective way to get a raise in your current IT job is to take a job somewhere else for higher pay and then reapply to your old position a year or 2 later there's a problem.

This is actually true for a lot of knowledge worker jobs, not just in IT.

[RainMaker]

Those companies literally colluded with each other to limit their own labor pool. The opposite of what you'd do if you are short on talent.

Apple and Google settle antitrust lawsuit over hiring collusion charges | Apple | The Guardian

[JPhillips]

Amazing how quickly the press went from Biden won't have a press conference to Biden's press conferences are too long.

[GrantDawg]

Is it really amazing? Really?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

We already do a bunch of H-1B in tech and other industries to keep wages lower. Companies put out listings with ridiculous requirements in the US and vastly below market average wages and then say there are no workers available. Then they import workers for low wages despite the fact that H-1B workers are supposed to make the same as the other workers in the company. It's well documented (just a couple of examples) but the DoL isn't stepping in. And the workers aren't going to because, if you just came here from another country and the company controls your visa, are you going to challenge that? Hell no.

Yes, I remember those ComputerWorld ads. I am also on record saying we need to rework H-1B, you'll get no argument from me.

I'm not saying increase H-1B. I'm saying make it easier for needed highly educated and/or skills to immigrate (e.g. create a new H-99 visa with the proper incentives, processes for desired skillsets). Or maybe create a point system like in Canada and UK to identify your "desirability".

We still get a ton of intellectual talent coming here from the university system - it's probably been our biggest driver for decades. It's a legit competitive advantage in the mental marketplace - you want that degree from an American institution, at least until we break them or other countries catch up in a more substantial fashion (and they are).

About 1M foreign college students last year. I cannot find any stats on how many F-1 student visas ultimately become PRs. But I do know the H-1B process is tedious. Make it easier for the desired skills and more will come/stay.

But I think we also have a huge perception problem. First off, staying in your native country is a huge draw - it's home and you're probably well off and comfortable there. So there needs to be a big enticement to move. If you are a top performer in a, I dunno, what do we think is the "second tier" of countries? BRIC? It's not like they are some hellscape compared to the USA. Upward mobility is still there-ish, but shrinking, and local wages have stagnated since the 70s. And have you looked at what living in the US looks like the last few year... couple decad... our history? Especially if you're not white (not that it's a picnic in other parts of the world - I get that, too)?

Just picking some random metrics: Life expectancy, per capita income, cost of living, poverty rate, infant mortality, internet speeds, percentage of users with internet, and happiness index. We're pretty good on most of them, like around 20th. But 20th, not #1. And there's a lot of good with bad - like wages are in the top 10 but, even with those wages, we're in the 30s for cost of living and we're quite a ways down on poverty rate (I stopped counting but we're outside the top 50), above India and Brazil but below China and Russia, because our cost of living is so high.

According to Gallup 2018, the US is still the most desired country to immigrate to. By far.

But assume your statement is more geared towards Europeans not wanting to immigrate to US as much? I'm good with that ... I'll take the college educated in needed skills from Asia, Africa, South America, LATAM etc.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/245255/...e-migrate.aspx

The countries where potential migrants say they would like to move -- if they could -- have generally been the same for the past 10 years. In fact, roughly 18 countries attract two-thirds of all potential migrants worldwide.

Although the image of U.S. leadership took a beating between 2016 and 2017, the U.S. continues to be the most desired destination country for potential migrants, as it has since Gallup started tracking these patterns a decade ago.

One in five potential migrants (21%) -- or about 158 million adults worldwide -- name the U.S. as their desired future residence. Canada, Germany, France, Australia and the United Kingdom each appeal to more than 30 million adults.

The long and short is that if you're an "in demand" immigrant, you have lots of suitors. Why would you come to the US vs Europe? Health care, college, shorter working weeks, more vacation with the latter. We'll give you fewer social benefits because our social safety net is crappy compared to most other "developed" countries but we'll also reward you by paying you less than your local peers but you still have to live with our high cost of living. What a deal!

I think there's a lot of reasons. But regardless, college educated immigrants prefer the US. Admittedly it may be declining but as of 2015 ...

4 ways highly educated immigrants study and work in U.S. | Pew Research Center

The United States is home to more college-educated immigrants than any other country. As of 2015, there were 14.7 million immigrants ages 25 and older with a postsecondary diploma or college degree living in the U.S. – more than triple the number in Canada (4.4 million) and more than four times as many as in the United Kingdom (3.4 million), according to a recent Pew Research Center report.

******

It comes down to whether or not you believe the US will, in the long run, have an issue with not having enough babies (=workers)? If you do, I don't see many other alternatives than increasing immigration (because we sure as heck can't force the population to have more babies).

The statistical replacement rate is 2,100 births per 1,000 women. But in 2020, the U.S. total fertility rate fell to 1,637.5 births per 1,000 women. One year earlier, it was just over 1,700 births.

[Edward64]

Yup, let's carve it up. Let's see what Biden can push through.

"I am confident we can get big chunks, big pieces, of Build Back Better signed into law."

There are two important things happening here: a) Biden admitting that his BBB bill isn't going to pass and b) endorsing the carving up of the legislation to get some of the more popular pieces of it approved. That's a strategy that acknowledges the political reality that Democrats badly need a legislative win on his domestic agenda and that his long-held hopes for BBB to pass in its entirety are now dashed. "It's clear to me that we are going to have to, probably, break it up," Biden said later of the bill.

[Brian Swartz]

It's amazing, if by amazing we mean completely unsurprising, aka the way the media typically acts in many circumstances and has for decades. A news cycle driven by our electorate means controversy *must* be created. If one controversy ends, a new one must rise to take it's place, like heads on a hydra.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't think many people predicted mass resignation/retirement a year ago. The demographic trend was predicted but not this mass scale resignation/retirement in the past 1+ year.

But its here now and don't see much that we are doing to blunt it other than proposing more spending and/or reduce spending. But those don't really help the baseline supply of human capital (e.g. babies, more people).

You're right that it wasn't predicted, but resignation/retirement have little to do with having more people. They literally demonstrate that lack of peole isn't the problem. It's the fact that the human capital that we do have doesn't want to work the jobs that are available at the price that employers are willing/able to pay.

Originally Posted by Edward64

It will increase our competitiveness and hurt other countries with the old cliche "brain drain".

This sort of gets back to issues we've previously discussed, but I don't think this is an acceptable goal. We need to have a more global mindset, not a us-vs-them one.

[bhlloy]

How the fuck did Biden manage to piss off NATO, Ukraine and Russia in a single statement. The guy just cannot get out of his own way, even when it’s an absolute gimmie.

[JPhillips]

Manchin is saying that his proposal from December is now off the table. Presumably, he thought that it was good policy a month ago, but not now that it might pass. It's very hard to negotiate a deal with someone that isn't negotiating in good faith.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

How the fuck did Biden manage to piss off NATO, Ukraine and Russia in a single statement. The guy just cannot get out of his own way, even when it’s an absolute gimmie.

He's pretty dumb.