The Stock Market thread

[RainMaker]

I have no clue where things are going. With the Treasury pumping so much into the markets, it is tough to tell what is real and what is a facade.

Mostly just keeping my regular savings stuff in safe stuff while letting my retirement ride.

[Edward64]

We've heard similar proposals before except for the 10-day window to "use it or lose it" (e.g. can't save it).

So 129,000,000 households x $1,000 x 4 payments (or 2 months) = $516B.

My guess is this will help the smaller businesses and big businesses in consumer goods & pharma. Unlikely to help the bigger companies like in travel, hospitality etc. Regardless, I like the idea you have to spend the funds and not save it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/mark...y-2-weeks.html

Cuban says there are “two economies,” or two sets of realities, right now: One for those able to stay afloat and one for those unable to. “Those without [help] are struggling badly,” he says. “We need to get them help.”

To provide that help, Cuban supports more stimulus checks being dispersed, he says.

Cuban says that all American households, no matter their income level, should receive a $1,000 stimulus check every two weeks for the next two months. He proposed this same idea in May and says “I still believe in doing it the exact same way” today.

Additionally, families would have to spend each check within 10 days, or they would lose the money, Cuban says. He believes this “use it or lose it approach” would be beneficial because it would promote spending, which would help businesses stay open and stimulate the economy.

“I don’t care what they spend it on,” Cuban told KNX 1070 News Radio in May. “It could be candy, it could be rent, it could be their mortgage, it could be anything they deem necessary or that they want.”

[albionmoonlight]

How do you enforce use it or lose it? Money is fungible.

[Galaril]

Pipe dream Dems aren’t supporting this bs to buy votes by Trump.

[albionmoonlight]

Dems are, IMO, making a big mistake if they support any stimulus that does not have automatic stabilizers or, at a minimum, extend benefits well into the new year.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Dems are, IMO, making a big mistake if they support any stimulus that does not have automatic stabilizers or, at a minimum, extend benefits well into the new year.

And Mitch will never allow that

SI

[stevew]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

How do you enforce use it or lose it? Money is fungible.

you put it on a debit card that can't be used to transfer to a bank account and one that won't allow you to withdraw cash.

[Edward64]

Let's hope he is right about 2021.

(And everyone, be sure to eat your black eyed peas on Jan 1).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

That’s Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton professor credited for calling Dow 20,000 in 2015, explaining to CNBC in an interview on Monday why he believes that the stock market “is looking forward to a really good” run next year, regardless of who takes the White House.

Siegel explained that the “tremendous burst of liquidity” from the Federal Reserve and Congress will continue to provide a huge tailwind for stocks.

But, the immediate future, he warned, remains precarious.

“It’s hard for me to see, without a stimulus package and with that election uncertainty, for there to be a lot of progress between now and the first week of November,” Siegel said. “I think that uncertainty is going to continue to weigh onto the markets.”

[RainMaker]

Would do the opposite of whatever Jeremy Siegel tells me.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/bu...-for-2008.html

[Edward64]

Add Disney to the list with 28,000 US layoffs (out of 100K+).

[Edward64]

And the stock markets are up by over 1.5%+ !!

Wouldn't have thought so after last night's debacle. Wonder what the good news is.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And the stock markets are up by over 1.5%+ !!

Wouldn't have thought so after last night's debacle. Wonder what the good news is.

It has nothing to do with the debate. A Biden victory has already been priced into the market. Most of the gain today is due to Mnuchin's comments on another stimulus deal and better than expected jobs data.

[Edward64]

Welcome back to the $2T club Apple.

Up by +6.3% right now, investors must be thinking that iPhone 12 will be a success.

[sterlingice]

Looks like the market is back to being optimistic about stimulus, too - I'm not sure how optimistic I am of seeing one before, say, next February

SI

[NobodyHere]

Why can't the market do this every day? I could retire right now.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Why can't the market do this every day? I could retire right now.

You ain't kidding.

[Vegas Vic]

The market is also reacting favorably to a likely Biden blowout, which lessens the likelihood of a protracted court battle after the election.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The market is also reacting favorably to a likely Biden blowout, which lessens the likelihood of a protracted court battle after the election.

I was reading that market is betting lower odds on stimulus now but a bigger stimulus next year.

The real question in my mind is does the +3 months hurt us too much or would it be better for Pelosi to team up with Trump and apply a lot of pressure on McConnell now to get the $1.8T or the $2.2T done now.

My vote is compromise and do it now with Trump's "help". Biden and Pelosi can pass a third stimulus next year if need be.

[JPhillips]

The GOP Senate doesn't care. They've already given up on Trump.

[Edward64]

Unfortunately, negative futures tonight.

Apple, I'm expecting you to blow it out of the water at 1pm ET.

[sterlingice]

It's almost as if this is all funny money propped up by spending from the Fed.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's almost as if this is all funny money propped up by spending from the Fed.

SI

Fed has propped up and stabilized the economy before and doesn't invalidate the recovery (nor capitalism). I think we can all agree, very similar to 2007-2008, that we need to spend money to reduce chances of it getting much worse. Thinking back to 2007-2008, I remember reading about fear of entire system collapsing and severity of Mar-Apr was probably a "tad" lower but, for all practical purposes, equivalent with the "unknowns" back then.

My biggest beef is the add to the debt and the debt as % of GDP. Not a Dem or Rep issue, they both have fault. You can say 70-30 to 30-70, regardless, its a big and shared fault over many decades.

The conundrum is the balance of revenue/tax receipts and spending. Both needs to be addressed. I would love to see a comprehensive & bipartianship plan to address this but probably won't happen in my lifetime.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's almost as if this is all funny money propped up by spending from the Fed.

SI

Fed has propped up and stabilized the economy before and doesn't invalidate the recovery (nor capitalism). I think we can all agree, very similar to 2007-2008, that we need to spend money to reduce chances of it getting much worse. Thinking back to 2007-2008, I remember reading about fear of entire system collapsing and severity of Mar-Apr was probably a "tad" lower but, for all practical purposes, equivalent with the "unknowns" back then.

My biggest beef is the add to the debt. Not a Dem or Rep issue, they both have fault. You can say 70-30 to 30-70, regardless, its a big and shared fault over many decades.

The conundrum is the balance of revenue/tax receipts and spending. Both needs to be addressed. I would love to see a comprehensive & bipartianship plan to address this but probably won't happen in my lifetime.

I've got pre-tax and ROTH 401k/IRAs. I've been telling the kids to go ROTH because I don't see how taxes won't increase.

[sterlingice]

I think this is more introducing inflation into the system then debt since it's just the Fed printing money and buying up crap debt from corporations. It's a wealth transfer, it's just a different type than with taxes.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Over 800,000 new jobless claims

Market futures down ~1.5%

The Senate's "Operation give Biden an economy plummeting into what would have been an easily avoidable depression" is going quite well.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Apple, I'm expecting you to blow it out of the water at 1pm ET.

Needless to say Apple did not blow it out of the water.

On another note. I have a small bit in Virgin's SPCE (want to support it) but SPACEX is more in the news nowadays (go Elon Musk) and seems more viable with its contracts, satellite launches etc. Since SPACEX is still private and angels have shares but the only publicly traded company to own some of SPACEX is Google/Alphabet.

I read that Musk does not want to go public anytime soon because of concerns of investors short-term time horizons and lack of patience. Must be good to be in that position to not need to go public.

[STK]

For those of you space nuts with a strong stomach and risk tolerance, check out SRAC. It's a SPAC so do your due diligence but they will be launching on board a SpaceX rocket in December with several other launches scheduled for 2021.

Vision - Momentus

[NobodyHere]

Well there goes 2 months worth of my pay.

Again.

[JPhillips]

Why is the Dow plummeting?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well there goes 2 months worth of my pay.

Again.

Not even going to look! I'm a fair weather market watcher.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Why is the Dow plummeting?

Cases are skyrocketing in this country. Government has mostly given up.

[sterlingice]

And they had baked in stimulus bucks

SI

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Cases are skyrocketing in this country. Government has mostly given up.

That was true last week, though.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That was true last week, though.

Kast week there was still some hope for a stimulus bill before the election.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That was true last week, though.

But the administration said it out loud on Sunday.

And the rumors are that part of the hangup with the stimulus is the WH not agreeing to any testing money in the bill.

So we've gone from the GOP being incompetent in managing the virus to the GOP trying to increase infection rates.

That's a change.

[Kodos]

Tough day on the markets today.

[Ksyrup]

I don't understand why. Trump tells me we're rounding the corner and the little flare-up in the midwest will be going away very soon.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Tough day on the markets today.

Oh yeah.

Futures are up so far but am feeling very negative with the second stimulus failure. If we go into a correction (-10%) again, it would be 3 corrections in one year.

I would have bet that something would have been agreed to; and I would also have bet that if it didn't both parties would be aggressively pointing fingers at each other (which ain't happening).

[Edward64]

FWIW, from an author some of us know. Don't try to time the market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...ge-cx#cxrecs_s

Burton Malkiel, Princeton economist and best-selling author of the iconic investment book, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” urging investors in a recent CNBC interview to remain calm in the face of recent stock-market weakness.

“Don’t try to time the market. Certainly don’t sell out now,” Malkiel said. “The best investors are ones that don’t try to time the market.” He suggested that investors “sit tight” and “stay the course” by sticking with a diversified approach. “You’re much better off to just be broadly indexed in a very low-cost index fund,” Malkiel told CNBC after Monday’s drop.

[Edward64]

A big FU to my favorite financial news website MarketWatch: Stock Market News - Financial News - MarketWatch who is going to subscription.

Can anyone recommend another site to keep up with market & economic news?

[Kodos]

I use CNN’s site.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Can anyone recommend another site to keep up with market & economic news?

One of the best free sites is bloomberg.com.

[albionmoonlight]

Futures up ~1.5% this morning.

That makes sense to me.

If things go badly, they could go so badly that having some extra equity exposure might be the least of your worries.

But if they go well (which is more likely than not), then you want to catch that on the way up.

Reminds me of a buddy right after college that was stone cold broke and bought the Godfather trilogy on DVD. His thought was that if he didn't get the jobs he was applying for, he was so fucked that the $50 wasn't gonna make a difference either way.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

One of the best free sites is bloomberg.com.

Thanks, surprised I haven't been using it already.

EDIT: oh wait, I'm getting messages that I'm about to run out of free articles?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Futures up ~1.5% this morning.

That makes sense to me.

If things go badly, they could go so badly that having some extra equity exposure might be the least of your worries.

But if they go well (which is more likely than not), then you want to catch that on the way up.

Reminds me of a buddy right after college that was stone cold broke and bought the Godfather trilogy on DVD. His thought was that if he didn't get the jobs he was applying for, he was so fucked that the $50 wasn't gonna make a difference either way.

Nice day so far, Dow up 2+% and my stock tracker app is all green (vs red).

Tired of this election, tired of the corrections this year, ready for 2021 and get a fresh start.

[NobodyHere]

Does the Stock Market know something that we don't today?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Does the Stock Market know something that we don't today?

Nope. They are reading Nate Silver and making educated guesses like the rest of us. These are people used to making big moves based on probabilities.

The only insight that they might have that we don't is some very off the record conversations with the Mitch McConnells of the world where they have been assured that the GOP establishment won't go along if Trump loses clearly and still tries to burn it all down.

[Edward64]

Futures are up at 5:40pm, 20 min before they start reporting election results.

Dow - +600
S&P - +59
Nasdaq - +184

[Edward64]

Dow -38
S&P +14
Nasdaq +259

Nasdaq seems weird but I read it's because the big Tech stocks have shown more stable earnings.

[Edward64]

Happy days are here again (at least for one day)!

(Crazy stock market)