WW LXXXVI - The Charmed Ones (Game Over - Innocents Win)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

something isn't right with the way hoops is playing, it is such a set up right now him coming out and voting like this

Because it is end game and because I've got this one figured out.

Be happy that I'm not going to Nightfall I'm at least going to try and play nicely with the other villagers and Heinz will not be around until tomorrow AM.

[Lathum]

well, I guess no reason not to lay my cards on the table.

I'm Cole. As per the rules if there is an attack on me I may be converted. Since there has been action everynight I obviously have not been converted.

[hoopsguy]

So if you are Cole then do you believe there is only one wolf/demon left? If so, who do you think it is?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So if you are Cole then do you believe there is only one wolf/demon left? If so, who do you think it is?

I think heinze is the best candidate for tomorrow, though the way you are acting isn't helping

[hoopsguy]

This seems like a very tough game for the bad guys with Leo being uber-tough and the extra-powerful seer if they started 9-2 (with brutal) even if there was an option to get a convert with a brutal ability.

If the game started 8-3 with you being Cole then it is already game over. Cole has the brutal when converted, so 2-2 = game over.

Like I said, I'll try to play nicely with the other villagers rather than going Nightfall in an effort to push my version of events through. But there is a big part of me that thinks you are bluffing here as a wolf/demon.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think heinze is the best candidate for tomorrow, though the way you are acting isn't helping

Look at the post I quoted from Packer - we know he was the seer. Does that sound like he was wavering at all on Heinz?

[hoopsguy]

On the off chance that Cole is out there, and is someone besides Lathum - you have the chance to pick which side wins. If you reveal, then the wolves have the chance to come get you and you can win with them. Or you can help us uproot the wolves and win with the villagers.

Your choice, but I'm hoping you side with the village and do not reveal to counter Lathum.

[Lathum]

Hoops, not sure how much you know about the show but do you really think there would be a charmed game without Cole?

And why would I fake reveal as Cole when we have lost 2 good guys and the list of them to choose from to fake reveal would be much eaiser?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, the problem with your reveal is that it screws the good guys unless you assume that the starting ratio was 9-2.

So, I'll ask again:
1.) Do you believe that the starting ratio is 9-2, or are you just throwing in with the bad guys?
2.) If you believe it started 9-2, then why do you believe Heinz is the remaining wolf when the dead seer appears to have cleared him with his posts?

I'll continue this discussion tomorrow morning; need to get some sleep.


FWIW, I'm not all that well versed on the show but do recognize that Cole was a significant character on the show. Read up on him on Wikipedia while preparing for the start of the game.

[Lathum]

I agree Heinze is probably in the clear.

Lets look at the 5 left.

I know I am good.
Heinze can be elevated based on PF's statements.


That leaves

Hoops, Chubby and Jackal.


Jackal- Day 1 he cast a very suspicous quick vote on Hannibal day 1. Then he makes it 5-5 on day 2 when he votes BK, now a known baddie, so he either was hoping for a tie, that someone would swing to CR, or he knew it would swing to BK and wanted to get in early.

Hoopsguy- Day 1 makes a late vote for hannibal. Day 2 also waits to make a late vote, this time to BK.

Chubby- Votes Heinze day one and day 2 he makes an early vote for BK making it 4-1. At the time it looked like it was gonna be a BK runaway and maybe he wanted to get in early. By the time he could have made a switch to save BK it would have looked suspicous, plus up until the end it was a toss up.


All being said, Chubby looks worst.

VOTE CHUBBY

[The Jackal]

VOTE LATHUM

too fishy to me

[Lathum]

I think Jackal and Chubby are the last 2 wolves if there are 2 left. It may not matter at this point.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

VOTE LATHUM

too fishy to me

whats fishy?

Do you think I was bold enough to fake reveal as the most popular person in the series then get lucky enough to NOT have him actualy in the game?

[Lathum]

It's late on the east coast so I will give Jackal a break, but thats a crazy hit and run.

Hoops, if you are a good guy and want to win this game you need to believe me.

[The Jackal]

I'll take that into consideration, what you said about Cole, my vote isnt set in stone.

[Chubby]

I am heading off to work soon, won't be home til 4:30 pm EST so I'll lay what I think is going on out on the table.

I'm a vanilla villager, nothing more. Kinda sucks but it is what it is. With the roles that have been shown by death and knowledge of the show I'm pretty sure that yes Cole is in the game, most likely it was 9-2 start for us good guys because of Cole being in the game, and that the other baddie is most likely Christy (as she takes down the power of three in the show if I remember correctly).

Because of this I'm not sold on the heinz clear with Christy being cunning. I'm pretty sure of the above scenario, I just don't know who is who outside of myself being good. Hopefully there will be some discussion when I get home so i can try and sort this out

For the sake of promoting discussion I'll Vote The Jackal based on multiple hit and runs but it's by no means set in stone.

[Chubby]

last thoughts before I go...

If you do think we started 9-2 with cole in play as I do, what would the 2nd demon be to make it fair? Charmed Ones + 2 potential BG (Leo and Paige) vs Source + ??? I don't see Source + Dark Lighter being fair, plus the Source could summon a dark lighter so it comes down to Christy vs seer. If the 2nd demon was a seer then they wouldn't be able to scan and kill in the same night which means they haven't scanned once (night kill attempt each night), I really think we started off against Source + Christy. I hope this gets fleshed out more while I'm at work but I don't see how we could have started any different.

[PackerFanatic]

De-frickin'-pressing. I was going along so well too!

Good luck villagers

[Lathum]

Chubby brings up a good point about the cunnng, Heinze may not be in the clear at all.

[Lathum]

I need to go back through Heinzes posts and look at them closer, the cunning usualy intentionaly draws attention to themselves in an attempt to get scanned.

[Lathum]

and hoops has been championing the Heinze being cleared bandwagon.

Unvote Chubby
Vote heinze

[jeheinz72]

Quite an interesting evening.

My thoughts are that I 100% trust hoops and Jackal, have all game really. I thought one of them was the Seer initially. My theory was that at N1 hoops laid out his "this is what the Seer should do plan" he was really depicting what he himself was going to do. Jackal had a chance to save BK basically and didn't instead making it a tie. Now a tie isn't a villager beneficial thing, but it would've been better than us losing that showdown altogether.

I'm fairly certain Lathum and Chubby are the two remaining wolves. I think 9-2 with Cole and the wolves being a Cunning and a Brutal is a tough road for the village to hoe. I'm thinking 8-3 with Source, Cunning, Regular Demon is more fair given Leo's strength

Also the two-wolf play of "You bring something up (cunning in this case) and I'll run with it (Lathum's above post)" is a pretty standard move.

Vote Lathum

[jeheinz72]

So Chubby/Lathum - You are surmising that we had

8 villagers
2 wolves (Source and me as the cunning)
1 Cole (lathum)

That would mean we've got left

3 villagers (Chubby, Jackal, hoops)
1 Wolf (Me)
1 Cole (Lathum)

left, right?

Then let's make this easy Chubby, let's lynch Lathum. If he's telling the truth we'll know it and it'll be 2 villagers after the night kill and me going into tomorrow. You can lynch me and the village would win (they actually wouldn't since I'm not a wolf, but we'd pay out on whichever of Jackal/Hoops played a magnificent game)

If he's lying, well, then it's pretty clear that hoops version of events was accurate.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Also the two-wolf play of "You bring something up (cunning in this case) and I'll run with it (Lathum's above post)" is a pretty standard move.

Kind of what you and hoops are doing?

anyone who thinks Cole isn't in the game is crazy. It would be like having an I love lucy game without Lucy or a Gilligans Island game without Gilligan.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Kind of what you and hoops are doing?

Fair enough point I suppose. Touche' my good man. Untrue, but fair point

Originally Posted by Lathum

anyone who thinks Cole isn't in the game is crazy. It would be like having an I love lucy game without Lucy or a Gilligans Island game without Gilligan.

I don't know about the show like at all, but I think my above plan "works". Yeah, it'd suck for you taking one for the team, but isn't that what being a villager is all about?

And if you are indeed Cole (and Chubby is actually the wolf) then I'll have a big road to overcome for the comeback and owe you 1000 virgins in the afterlife.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

So Chubby/Lathum - You are surmising that we had

8 villagers
2 wolves (Source and me as the cunning)
1 Cole (lathum)

That would mean we've got left

3 villagers (Chubby, Jackal, hoops)
1 Wolf (Me)
1 Cole (Lathum)

left, right?

Then let's make this easy Chubby, let's lynch Lathum. If he's telling the truth we'll know it and it'll be 2 villagers after the night kill and me going into tomorrow. You can lynch me and the village would win (they actually wouldn't since I'm not a wolf, but we'd pay out on whichever of Jackal/Hoops played a magnificent game)

If he's lying, well, then it's pretty clear that hoops version of events was accurate.

this screams desperation.


Lynch me today and the game is over. I am 99% convinced of that. Heinze knows that and is throwing anything he can against the wall to make that happen.


Lets look at the roles.

A charmed one- very powerfull charecture.

Leo- can only be night killed by 1-2 players in the game, and if he was attacked by a different player he was given clues identyfying that player. Thats really powerfull, it just happened to be bad luck the brutal got him.

Paige- a backup charmed one.

Thats 3 really powerfull roles. It is far from inconceivable the would be the source, a dark lighter and a demon. Which means there are 2 bad guys left.

It was also made clear to me I would have choices if I was attacked at night, so it isn't so cut and dry I would be converted.


Heinze and Hoops are the last 2 wolves, lynch me and it's game over.

[jeheinz72]

So you actually think it was 7 villagers, 3 wolves and Cole? So hell, the wolves could've lucked into a 6-4 game heading into Day two? No way man. No bleepin way.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I don't know about the show like at all, but I think my above plan "works". Yeah, it'd suck for you taking one for the team, but isn't that what being a villager is all about?

your "plan" is predicated on the fact there is only 1 wolf/demon left. If thats not the case then it is game over.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

So you actually think it was 7 villagers, 3 wolves and Cole? So hell, the wolves could've lucked into a 6-4 game heading into Day two? No way man. No bleepin way.

I (cole) start the game as a villager so it is 8-3. Then factor in the roles.


You are completly discounting the power of the roles.

1 wolf can only kill a certain villager ( CR ). If another wolf attempts the kill they are outed.
1 villager has crazy powers and another inherits those powers if the first one dies

[Lathum]

dola- do you really think it started 9-2? the wolves could have been at an 8-1 disadvanvantage after day 1.

No way man. No bleepin way.

[Lathum]

4X dola-

why are the 2 west coasters the only ones talking right now?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- do you really think it started 9-2? the wolves could have been at an 8-1 disadvanvantage after day 1.

No way man. No bleepin way.

I think it was either 9-2 and you're Cole who has been converted or 8-3 and no Cole at all.

Originally Posted by Lathum

4X dola-

why are the 2 west coasters the only ones talking right now?

I was thinking that myself.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I (cole) start the game as a villager so it is 8-3. Then factor in the roles.


You are completly discounting the power of the roles.

1 wolf can only kill a certain villager ( CR ). If another wolf attempts the kill they are outed.
1 villager has crazy powers and another inherits those powers if the first one dies

And for wolves to get a brutal and a cunning in a small game (it usually takes some time to sniff out a cunning) is a big advantage. Much less a conversion chance which can blow everything up in a 4-5 day game

[Hannibal Lecter]

cuz everyone else is dead

[jeheinz72]

I mean realistically, your vote doesn't matter Lathum. You've cast doubt upon all 4 of the rest of us now at some point in the last 12 hours. Wanna talk desparation, there it is.

Basically it's like 95% I'm voting with hoops/Jackal. I'm hoping it's for you. It's then up to Chubby if he wants to acquiesce (horrid spelling there) or fight it today.

[jeheinz72]

I should add, that if I was a lone wolf left, why would I want to lynch you? Wouldn't I be trying to cast doubt on one of the other 3?

Clearly if I was the only wolf left, I'd be doing my best to somehow keep both you and I alive through today, attack you tonight and hope you decide to take the easy win with me be joining me.

That path, if I were the only wolf, is surely a better bet than just hoping I survive back-to-back lynches, seer clearing me or not.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I've did some thinking on this on the way into work and I'll come clean with the one piece of information that I've held onto up to this point in time.

I KNOW THAT COLE IS IN THE GAME

I also know one player who is alive that is not Cole.

Consider this a large check-mark for Lathum's version of the events. Also, given that the night actions have been accounted for on each night (1 - attacked Leo, 2 and 3 were night kills) I guess I believe that he is in fact who he says he is. I do not know that he is Lathum, but there is a shrinking number of people who could have this role.

The bad part about this is that if there are two wolves, we have lost the game. Because they convert him tonight and we are 2-2 with one wolf being brutal.

So, for this to even be worth playing out we have to, more or less, approach this like there is just one wolf left.

Keep in mind, I'm basically throwing away my chance at a major victory by divulging this information on Cole. If there are two wolves left they would have backed me on Lathum and it would have ended the game today. I would have had a partial victory based on achieving one of my win conditions. But I would rather win with the village (hoping that is still possible) and lose the individual win condition than lose the game and take the partial win.

UNVOTE LATHUM

[jeheinz72]

I'd agree that if there are 2 wolves left and one is an unconverted Cole then we're fucked.

Could Jackal be Cole? He waited to make his vote until late in the day every day but the first. Could that have been a ploy to try and get night-killed? (just theorizing)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I think it was either 9-2 and you're Cole who has been converted or 8-3 and no Cole at all.

when exactly was I converted then?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Could Jackal be Cole? He waited to make his vote until late in the day every day but the first. Could that have been a ploy to try and get night-killed? (just theorizing)

Jesus Christ dude, how bad do you want me lynched?

I just happened to fake reveal as Cole, hoops confirms Cole is in the game, and the ONE player yet to check in happens to be the real Cole, gimme a break...

[Lathum]

Hoops, based on what I have been told I will basicly be given the choice if I want to be converted or not.

If I choose to not be converted I believe I will be told the identity of my attacker.

Another thing I was told is if I decide to become a demon, I become a demon the following night and the demon that attacked me is night killed, I basicly steal their powers. Which also lends to the theory we started with 3 wolves.

[Lathum]

Does anyone think Jackal cast that odd day 1 vote in an attempt to get scanned and cleared as the cunning?

[hoopsguy]

I've basically got to discount the two wolves scenario to have any fun playing this out today. So, here are possible scenarios:

Lathum - believe him to be Cole (who has cast horrible votes for village, although yesterday was survival mode)

Heinz - miserable voting record, but appears to have been seer scanned. Less likely to be wolf, but possibility exists of cunning

Chubby - had good vote on BK, although was certainly not first to the party. Otherwise, votes have been bad for village. Brought up idea of cunning wolf, which may be red herring to distract from notion of him as wolf

Jackal - very good vote in BK/Chief showdown on D2, went against the grain again yesterday too (in what now appears to have been villager-friendly move, given RendeR/Lathum revealed info)

Me - you guys get to be the judge, but I will not be voting for me

[EagleFan]

As of post 439:

Lathum 1 - The Jackal (411)
heinz72 1 - Lathum (421)
The Jackal 1 - Chubby (416)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Does anyone think Jackal cast that odd day 1 vote in an attempt to get scanned and cleared as the cunning?

Nah, voting out the bad guy is not a quick path to being scanned. I pretty much discount this motivation.

[hoopsguy]

Let's add a little more variety to the votes - plenty of time for "villagers" to consolidate later.

I'll go with Chubby because he is the easiest choice based on what I know - I know there is a wolf left, but do not know that there is a cunning wolf in the game.

VOTE CHUBBY

[Lathum]

Hoops, how exactly do you know Cole is in the game?

This seems like info a wolf may have been given based on some of the PM's I have received.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Nah, voting out the bad guy is not a quick path to being scanned. I pretty much discount this motivation.

he voted HL day 1

[Lathum]

dola- If you think there is only 1 wolf left then it is probably a cunning wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hoops, how exactly do you know Cole is in the game?

This seems like info a wolf may have been given based on some of the PM's I have received.

I got a PM on Day 2 giving me information about my new win condition. I learned that Cole Turner is a lawyer who defended/freed some guy who killed a college friend of mine. I want vengeance on Cole Turner because of this.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Jesus Christ dude, how bad do you want me lynched?

I just happened to fake reveal as Cole, hoops confirms Cole is in the game, and the ONE player yet to check in happens to be the real Cole, gimme a break...

Dude, I said I was just theorizing!

What, we're not allowed to suggest ideas in Werewolf now? Or only you are?