The Official 2016 NBA Playoffs Thread

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by nol

I had a bit of an opportunity lost. A friend of mine was in Vegas for her bacherlorette party; she asked me about sports betting and I told her to go with OKC if the odds of them winning the title were more than 10 times worse than the Warriors'. Once the Warriors got down 3-1 I thought they were still a bit more likely than not to win the series, but I didn't know her that closely to try to coordinate hedging strategies.

Unless she was out here weeks ago, you wouldn't have found 10-1 on OKC. Live odds on okc winning the title are 6-1 right now. I grabbed a little Thunder +115 to win the series up 2-1 and then middle last night with in play on the Warriors ML +185 in the 4th last night. So I'm even on the series and still have a chance for the Thunder to pay off a series win. I'll sprinkle a little on GSW if they get down early in game 7 but with them being favored by 7+ right now I doubt that opportunity comes up.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

OKC should go for a healthy dose of Kanter in the low post here, but I don't know if they have a play in their offense outside of a big screening for Durant or Westbrook.

Originally Posted by whomario

Kanter was +15 in 11 minutes. Way to recognize what was working, Mr Donovan .

We Simmed It - WCF : Golden State vs Oklahoma City - Wolverine Studios

Prior to the series I simmed both the ECF and WCF and this is what I wrote in my observations after the WCF sim

I marveled at how OKC could grind out a lead only to have GST come down, whip the ball around a few times and drill some threes and it seemed like minutes of hard work building a lead was erased in seconds.

The problem for OKC was that there was never a third wheel to get them over the hump. Kanter may have been that guy – he averaged 13.1 PPG for the series but only on just about 20 MPG. The problem was it wasn’t consistent. It seemed that Ibaka/Adams would play decent the games Kanter didn’t and when those guys had a lousy game it was Kanter who was playing well. It was almost like rolling the dice every game to see which of those three would play well. However the upside seemed so much more with Kanter as he did his damage in realtively few mintues while it would take Ibaka or Adams a full compliment of starters minutes to muster up their good games.

I really wonder how this series might be different if Kanter was more involved. I will be super impressed if they win on the backs of Westbrook/KD alone but I just don't think that's enough to beat a complete team effort by Golden State

[wustin]

Kanter has been a liability on defense for the series. Roberson, Adams, and Ibaka are so important for the defense it's very hard to match up Kanter against GSW's offense. He's super efficient at scoring, that's about it.

I hope Billy doesn't try the hack-a-Bogut method again. Roberson ended up picking up 5 fouls and Klay went off because of that.

[PilotMan]

Really enjoyed reading your write ups Gary. The OKC/GS series has been every bit as exciting as your own series was.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by wustin

Kanter has been a liability on defense for the series. Roberson, Adams, and Ibaka are so important for the defense it's very hard to match up Kanter against GSW's offense. He's super efficient at scoring, that's about it.

But in reality how is his defense a liability against guys who are bombing threes from ridiculous range and with crazy accuracy? In that case you're in a shootout and Westbrook/KD hero ball isn't going to win that battle. Durant has been playing very good D, Roberson is an excellent defender so Russ and one of Ibaka/Adams should be able to make up for a minus defender in Kanter.

I don't know if it would make a difference - it was just something I pondered in watching the games play out on DDSPB since my sim said OKC loses the series.

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Really enjoyed reading your write ups Gary. The OKC/GS series has been every bit as exciting as your own series was.

Thanks - the best thing was that I didn't embellish or invent a single thing in the writeup. Those are exactly how the games played out - they were that incredible. All I had to do was report what happened. After Cleveland dominated the first two in real life I was afraid my sim would be way off and it would be a sweep yet Toronto won games 3 and 4 just like my game predicted and then lost in 6 so I'm not only happy with the overall accuracy of the sim results wise but also that it presents some compelling drama all on its own.

Can't wait to sim the finals

[Groundhog]

Kanter is at least seeming to put an effort in on the defensive end - based mainly on the Spurs series than what I’ve seen of him vs GSW. He’s not very mobile and will never be a good defender vs the pick and roll, but whenever Bogut is on the bench they should just be force feeding him inside until they have to bring Bogut back on, IMO. The small ball stuff works both ways when you have a guy who can score like Kanter, especially given how wretchedly one-dimensional their offense has been in the halfcourt.

[stevew]

Some dude on the Pelicans got shot and killed.

[nol]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Do you mean you took the Thunder at + to win the championship and are wishing you had hedged after game 4? Or did you end up not taking anything?

It was late March and I told someone that I thought OKC to win the title at whatever the odds were at the time (somewhere around 20 or 25 to 1) would be better than Golden State, which was favored over the field. Between the friend not being in Vegas now and her not being an enormous sports fan in the first place (had to tell her when the Thunder were up 3-1 that there was still another round to play), I didn't think it would be worth the trouble for such a small initial bet.

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

But in reality how is his defense a liability against guys who are bombing threes from ridiculous range and with crazy accuracy? In that case you're in a shootout and Westbrook/KD hero ball isn't going to win that battle. Durant has been playing very good D, Roberson is an excellent defender so Russ and one of Ibaka/Adams should be able to make up for a minus defender in Kanter.

Not really how it works - those guys get even more opportunities to bomb threes when he's out there rather than Adams and Ibaka. There's no help coming when you're switched onto Curry or Thompson beyond the arc. The Warriors find bad defenders and exploit them, which is why for however well Kanter is scoring, the Thunder have been outscored when he's on the court. That's saying something considering he's likely playing a higher proportion of his minutes without Curry on the floor than any of the Thunder's rotation players are (if you want to do the math, go ahead, but Steph Curry checking in at the scorer's table has been a cue for Billy Donovan to have Ibaka or Adams check back in for Kanter regardless of how well Kanter's been playing) and that Oklahoma City as a whole has outscored Golden State over the first 6 games.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by stevew

Some dude on the Pelicans got shot and killed.

Played here at UNLV before transferring to Iowa St. He was in Dallas to visit his daughter on her first birthday, got in a fight with the mother, returned at 3 AM to kick in (on the wrong floor) the front door and bedroom door before getting shot in the stomach.

[murrayyyyy]

Warriors fans should be glad to know Foster is not the lead ref tonight. But they get Danny Crawford who has called the most fouls in the playoffs. Worries me a little that this game might be decided by a tight whistle with Danny giving some an early 2nd foul.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by nol

Not really how it works - those guys get even more opportunities to bomb threes when he's out there rather than Adams and Ibaka. There's no help coming when you're switched onto Curry or Thompson beyond the arc.

You mean like how Curry torches Adams literally every time he gets that switch or are you not watching the game tonight?

which is why for however well Kanter is scoring, the Thunder have been outscored when he's on the court.

How can they be outscored when someone said Kanter was +15 the other night?

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah WARRIORS!!!

[kingfc22]

Thunder better regain some semblance of composure or else this is gonna get ugly.

[Abe Sargent]

Game 7, 4th quarter, here we come!

[wustin]

Kanter got crossed up by Anderson Varejao of all people.

I stand by my initial statement.

[Gary Gorski]

And just to follow up I'm not saying Kanter playing more means they win - the result might very well be the same because Kanter is a far worse defender than Adams or Ibaka but if you switch Kanter or Adams onto Curry you're getting the same result.

Its just a what-if. If you played Kanter starters minutes or close and gave him the shots as the number three option with Russ and KD on the floor at the same time that would give you more offensive punch. Does it give you more than the extra points he would give up to the guy he's guarding outside of switching to Curry? That's the what-if because yes Adams/Ibaka will prevent more points to other guys than Kanter but which way gives you more - better offense or better defense? Maybe OKC comes back but right now it *looks* like they need points more than what they're doing now.

[murrayyyyy]

Welp, glad I grabbed a little +2.5 in the 2nd. So how soon after the game will the Thunder don't like each other be posted on espin.com

[Zinto]

This fourth quarter!!!!!

Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk

[SirFozzie]

The Warriors are playing on Easy Mode at times.

[SirFozzie]

Wow. To quote the late great Yogi Berra. It Ain't ovah till it's ovah.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

How can they be outscored when someone said Kanter was +15 the other night?

Because a playoff series consists of more than one game?

[Galaril]

Dumb dumb foul and that is game. Hopefully the Cavs upset these guys in the Finals.

[Abe Sargent]

We can call it

[hollmt]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. To quote the late great Yogi Berra. It Ain't ovah till it's ovah.

But it is over when you play shitbox defense and just stand around w/ your thumb up your ass on that last possession. nice job dipshits.

Someone also needs to slap that mouthpiece out of Curry's mouth.

[Groundhog]

Ibaka, Adams, or Kanter all aren't stopping Curry on the pick and roll. No body is. He'll get his shots and they either go down or they don't. He's the best shooter in the game/league/basketball history. Only way Thunder were winning this series were by putting up a ton of points, which just isn't going to happen when GSW aren't giving up opportunities off of turnovers, because their halfcourt offense was about as impressive as the Cavs in the finals last year with no Love and Irving - a whole lot of one guy trying to do too much while everyone else watches.

More Kanter minutes would have helped more than hurt them these past 3 games, IMO. Might not have been the difference - Warriors should have won 4-0 if not for a sloppy start tot he series - but no way they have such long periods of no scoring against the GSW onslaught.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

More Kanter minutes would have helped more than hurt them these past 3 games, IMO. Might not have been the difference - Warriors should have won 4-0 if not for a sloppy start tot he series - but no way they have such long periods of no scoring against the GSW onslaught.

Kind of hard to say the series should have ended in a sweep when 2 of the games were 28 and 24 point Thunder wins. Lets give the Thunder the credit they deserve. They played the team that set the record for wins to a tight game series and a scary game 7. The Thunder winning games 3 and 4 the way they did will probably lead Golden State to their 2nd straight championship. The way they were playing they needed a wake up call. Thunder struggled to get Westbrook and Durant going at the same time the past 3 games.

What did Charles Barkley expect the Thunder to do? He keeps talking about Oklahoma City playing "hero" ball and that is why they lost. Does he expect them to run the offense through Adams, Ibaka, Roberson? The reason the Thunder are one of the best teams in the league is because they have 2 of the top 5 players in the NBA. Of course the offense is going to go through them.

[Groundhog]

I'll give the Thunder credit for disrupting the Warriors at times, but it still had a lot more to do with the Warriors (and maybe Curry's post-injury confidence) than it did the Thunder, IMO.

Barkley's blame belongs with the coach rather than Durant or Westbrook. You don't run the offense through Adams, but you should at least actually run an offense. What % of plays did the Thunder have in the halfcourt where they either straight run an iso, or a high pick and roll with no other motion? It's just not going to get it done at this stage of the playoffs... all those low % plays catch up with you.

[ColtCrazy]

Well said, Groundhog. I kept pointing out to my son who plays how well the Warriors were moving with or without the ball. The second half was just great basketball offensive play. Barkley did mention hero ball. Westbrook had some bad misses/turnovers again by forcing the action in the 3rd when the Warriors started their run. Kudos to Durant for nearly bringing them back in the end, but that shows you again that team ball is more important than just constant iso or pick and roll.

[Vince, Pt. II]

What a game, and what a series. I hope that the narrative doesn't become the Thunder choked, because they played an absolutely magnificent series of basketball. That team is incredible - their ability to get second chance points, the tremendous play of their secondary players (who I totally underestimated going into the series), and of course Durant and Westbrook.

I cannot believe that the Thunder didn't foul at the end of the game. I feel like Billy Donovan is going to catch hell for that for a long time.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Only way Thunder were winning this series were by putting up a ton of points, which just isn't going to happen when GSW aren't giving up opportunities off of turnovers

Luckily for them I guess, they weren't going to put up many points with Kanter either because if he's so bad at defense as to require Roberson and Adams/Ibaka to try to help him on defense, that's a lineup with zero shooters other than Durant (who was sub 30 percent from 3 for the series).

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I'll give the Thunder credit for disrupting the Warriors at times, but it still had a lot more to do with the Warriors (and maybe Curry's post-injury confidence) than it did the Thunder, IMO.

Barkley's blame belongs with the coach rather than Durant or Westbrook. You don't run the offense through Adams, but you should at least actually run an offense. What % of plays did the Thunder have in the halfcourt where they either straight run an iso, or a high pick and roll with no other motion? It's just not going to get it done at this stage of the playoffs... all those low % plays catch up with you.

The problem with the Thunder is they dont have anyone other than really Waiters(which is 50/50) that is capable of creating any offense other than Durant/Westbrook. Ibaka is a decent set shooter when he is open but he cant create offense, Adams is a garbage man picking up rebounds and put backs and Roberson is the shorter more athletic version of Adams. I suppose they could post up Kanter a few times a game but its not like that would open up the entire offense. If anything in the coaching I would change with them is I would give Westbrook more ISOs and try to set up some back screens for Durant for Westbrook to kick out to him. As far as one on one players in the NBA is there anyone you would feel confident in beating either one of them two?

[Groundhog]

My problem is that the stuff they are doing to start every possession is the same stuff they can do with 6-8 seconds left on the clock when something else failed. That's the time you live with a Westbrook step back jumper or Durant flailing wildly to the basket. Westbrook and Durant should be initiating everything, but it shouldn't be the two of them alternating isos - like you say, do something off the ball as well. Ibaka gets most his jumpshot opportunities on Westbrook and Durant dishing to him off drives, but he's good taking it to the basket as well, but you just don't get to see it with them playing 4-out iso ball.

You want Westbrook and Durant initiating everything, but how about something/anything offball looking to take advantage of the amount of attention the Warriors were putting on whichever of Durant/Westbrook had the ball in their hands?

[bhlloy]

I've only seen extended highlights but it seems like Adams had no business being out there when the Warriors went small. That really was the critical time when the game was on the line and they just didn't match up well.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by nol

Because a playoff series consists of more than one game?

You made a typical condescending statement telling me "Not really how it works" and a blanket statement "which is why for however well Kanter is scoring, the Thunder have been outscored when he's on the court"

Yes a playoff series consists of more than one game and Kanter was a -6 for the entire series...

Steven Adams was a -32 overall and -44 in the four losses. In fact Adams only posted 1 positive game - a +19 in game one.

Ibaka was a -28 in the four losses and +66 in the three wins (+0, +42, +24)

Kanter was +3 for the four losses.

Kanter was also only negative for 3 of the 7 games (-1, -17, -11 - the latter two being OKC wins) while Ibaka and Adams both posted 4 negative games.

If you bothered to look at when I simulated the series I noticed that the trick seemed to be finding which of the three was going to be the weak link that game and that maybe Kanter should be given the opportunity in hindsight after seeing OKC lose 4-3 in my sim because Ibaka and Adams good games always took a full compliment of minutes whereas Kanter did his damage in small minutes and that more minutes could equal a larger benefit.

As it was pointed out nobody was stopping Curry - the only one who gave him any sort of difficulty was when Durant would switch and even then Curry was knocking down shots. I don't know if more Kanter and less Ibaka/Adams would have made a difference - I only said it was a theory worth exploring and I think that now that I have taken the time to provide the +/- for the entire series that there's numbers to back up the idea. Even if you want to come up with some excuse for Curry was sitting or whatever when Kanter played how do you explain the -32 for Adams for the series? The +/- shows that in the games they lost Kanter performed better than Ibaka or Adams in ALL FOUR of the games (especially crucial game 6 where Kanter was +15 and Ibaka/Adams was a combined -18)

I think I may know "how things work" when it comes to talking about basketball.

[murrayyyyy]

I haven't heard a good explanation and I was in a restaurant at the time so sound was horrible. How did Adams gets called for a double foul when Green performed an arm drag on him and then Green laid on the ground like he got hit with a chair from behind by Adams?

Green Yanks Adams Down By Hooking His Right Arm - TNT - Streamable

I really want to like him as someone who played the undersized 4/5 growing up but I just have a hard time with him looking for the refs out of the corner of his eyes after this stunt.

[Kodos]

I was rooting for Golden State, but Green is an ass.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

As it was pointed out nobody was stopping Curry - the only one who gave him any sort of difficulty was when Durant would switch and even then Curry was knocking down shots.

That's not a good theory; most of defense is preventing something from happening in the first place rather than actively contesting or blocking a shot. Your comments about how Curry was scoring "literally" every time were absurd; Curry made tough shots to score 36 points in 40 minutes when an average game for him is 30 points in 34 minutes (and in an average game this season the Warriors were winning by enough to not require him to be as aggressive in getting baskets). Against bad defense he's easily capable of 50 or more.

Kanter played mostly against the bench and the other two played most of their minutes against starters. That's why adjusted versions of plus-minus are much better than straight plus-minus and why a sample of multiple games is better than a sample of one game (because sometimes you just happen to be in the game as your teammates are making their jumpers, as Kanter was in game 6), so it was particularly noteworthy for me to show that the adjustment wasn't even necessary because if Kanter wasn't even making the Thunder more competitive against Livingston and Barbosa, what hope would there have been against the Splash Brothers?

I think I may know "how things work" when it comes to talking about basketball.

No, you really don't, especially for how sure you presume to be. You are treating "having the worst defensive center in the league out there trying to guard the best offensive player in the world would not be good" as though it's a radical idea. You are essentially advocating "well, can't do anything other than just hope Steph Curry misses open shots" for the Thunder so they could, I suppose, let Enes Kanter try posting up on Draymond Green, who has certainly shut down better post scorers than Kanter.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by nol

Your comments about how Curry was scoring "literally" every time were absurd

Since you like to try and prop up your arguments by either changing/ignoring what was said or by simply telling someone they don't know what they're talking about here's what I said.

"You mean like how Curry torches Adams literally every time he gets that switch or are you not watching the game tonight?"

OK show me where Adams defended him well on that switch. Here's 6 times he got completely torched last night alone.

http://stats.nba.com/cvp.html?CFID=&...ndRange=28800#

Video 1 - Curry hits a three on an Adams switch
Video 3 - Curry hits a layup while Adams doesn't go to help
Video 4 - Curry puts Adams on skates and hits a jumper
Video 7 - Another Curry three over Adams on the switch after he shakes him
Video 8 - Yet another Curry three by shaking Adams
Video 11 - Curry beats his man and Adams is useless with his help for a layup

Curry made tough shots to score 36 points in 40 minutes

Nothing in those 6 possessions with Adams was tough. In fact only video 5 (the layup to end the half), and videos 6 and 9 (the threes over Ibaka/Durant) were tough at all. So 8 of his 36 points were difficult and as mentioned none of them involved Steven Adams.

Kanter played mostly against the bench and the other two played most of their minutes against starters.

You're propping up whatever your argument is with this but how did it work out with Kanter on the bench? Adams was -32 for the series and -44 in the losses. How do you explain that? The +/- shows Kanter was effective in his limited minutes - the same thing it showed when I simmed the series out. The numbers show Adams was ineffective against the starters - how can you definitively say that if the minutes were reversed Kanter would not have been better even if better still isn't good enough to win the series. I've said he could be worse as well - I've only agreed with a few others that maybe it would have made a difference. Worst case scenario is they still lose.

No, you really don't, especially for how sure you presume to be. You are treating "having the worst defensive center in the league out there trying to guard the best offensive player in the world would not be good" as though it's a radical idea.

My point exactly (actually points - once again instead of presenting some numbers/facts you attempt to simply tell me I don't understand basketball even though somehow I programmed a simulation which accurately predicted Warriors in 7 and Cavs in 6). Kanter can't guard Curry any better than Adams can so if either guy is going to get torched by OKC's decision to switch on the PnR then you can't even fathom an argument that playing the guy who can contribute something on offense might have an impact when either way you're giving up the points on defense?

If the opponent's center was the star offensive player then yes Adams is going to have a much bigger impact but Bogut/Ezeli/Speights/worst offensive option in the small lineup isn't going to do anything more against Kanter than Adams and Adams proved he was totally ineffective when switched onto Curry so it doesn't matter if its Adams, Kanter or Rumble getting torched.

And since you don't ever offer up anything but opinion what is your proof that Kanter is "the worst defensive center in the league"? His Defensive Rating for the year was 106.5 - so per 100 possessions while he was on the floor OKC would give up 106.5 points. Centers listed as worse than that include

Mason Plumlee (107.0)
Anthony Davis (107.3)
Greg Monroe (107.5)
Tyson Chandler, Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein (108.1)
Jahlil Okafor (108.7)
Roy Hibbert (112.6)

Kanter's defensive win shares was .015. Worse than that - Okafor, Chandler, Cauley-Stein, Hibbert

I'm not saying Kanter isn't bad defensively and I'm not saying Adams isn't better defensively (at 99.0 Adams trails only Duncan, Bogut, Horford, Olynyk and Mahinmi in DefRtg for guys playing meaningful minutes - he's a very good defensive player) but what are you basing Kanter as the worst defender on?

It would be nice if for once you could bring some facts to the table and actually have some give and take on a discussion - especially a total what-if such as this instead of just trying to sound like you're the only person who knows anything about the NBA and everyone else who doesn't agree with your point of view knows nothing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Sticking with Adams instead of going with Kanter seemed to have worked out pretty well. I mean OkC is headed to Clev ... oh.

Wait.

[Marmel]

I was half asleep watching some anonymous guy on ESPN talk about the game. I don't give much credence to this guy, but he did show that Steph and Klay were 8 for 8 (or 9 for 9?) when Adams switched on D, so it was very obvious that wasn't working and in fact GS knew this and were running the plays at Adams, so Donovan should have done anything but run Adams out there all 4th quarter, if nothing else than to make GS at least have to come up with a new plan. I mean, Adams stopped the GS guards as many times as a dead man could have last night. I started to feel pretty sorry for the guy.

[Subby]

#makesyouthink

[murrayyyyy]

Dubs open -5.5 (210 total) around town today so I'll guess they will have the Cavs around -4 for games 3 and 4. Should be interesting with two of the hottest shooting teams from deep in the playoffs (Cle 43.4%, GSW 40.3%). Shocked the Cavs have 6 guys shooting over 44% from 3 in the playoffs.

[wustin]

Top image is Steven Adam's defensive stats against GSW during the regular and postseason. Bottom image is Kanter's. I understand just about any big man will get lit up by Curry but the point is Kanter's defense relative to the other big men OKC plays is not great.

[Groundhog]

It's not, but OKC's gameplan should not have been to try and shut GSW down on the defensive end anyway. Curry and Klay are gonna Curry an' Klay, you just try and contain it as much as you can. The Thunder needed to win on the other end of the court, which is where Kanter would have helped them. But hey, I still don't think Billy D. has a single post entry play in his playbook anyway, and Kanter scores a lot as the roll man on Durant/Westbrook screens. I imagine Billy D's playbook is just one A4 page with 'ISO DURANT/WESTBROOK???' written on it, size 48 font.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I imagine Billy D's playbook is just one A4 page with 'ISO DURANT/WESTBROOK???' written on it, size 48 font.

Didn't even have to print it himself but could just take the copy left behind by Scott Brooks. Kinda makes me doubt wether Durant is really all that coachable ... And no ones saying you shouldn't utilize those 2 and its not entirely the coaches fault their 3rd best perimeter option is an iso-guy himself, but its still pretty blatant how incredibly basic their offense has stayed for years now.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

OK show me where Adams defended him well on that switch. Here's 6 times he got completely torched last night alone.

I certainly could show you plenty of times Adams defended him and Thompson well when the Thunder were in the process of beating the Warriors, possibly the best team in NBA history, more times than any other team has and holding them to an offensive rating of 106 for the series when it was 114 during the regular season. However, when you are taking plays like Steph Curry's first three, when Adams guarded Curry on the initial switch, forced Curry to give it up and then got his hand in Curry's face on a shot from 30 feet out to be "easy," you've already made up your mind.

The great thing of all this is that if those contested shots hadn't gone in, we'd probably be hearing about the shameful isolation hero ball the Warriors played to lose the game and how Steve Kerr didn't make any adjustments and got outcoached by Billy Donovan, but now Donovan is the one who doesn't know how to coach. Side note: Andre Roberson made some threes in OKC's home wins but shot badly on the road. The first play of Game 7 OKC ran got Roberson a wide-open corner three, which he missed. Kevin Durant was visibly chewing him out in the third quarter for not taking an open shot even as Roberson was on the way to a 2-11 shooting night, but that doesn't fit the narrative of 'they lost because hero ball.'

You're propping up whatever your argument is with this but how did it work out with Kanter on the bench? Adams was -32 for the series and -44 in the losses. How do you explain that? The +/- shows Kanter was effective in his limited minutes - the same thing it showed when I simmed the series out. The numbers show Adams was ineffective against the starters - how can you definitively say that if the minutes were reversed Kanter would not have been better even if better still isn't good enough to win the series.

With Kanter on the bench, the Thunder beat a 73-9 team 3 times and hung around in a Game 7 on the road. Worked pretty well. How can I definitively say that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are better and harder to guard than Barbosa and Livingston? Gee, I don't know. Better come up with some kind of peer-reviewed statistics to support such a controversial assertion. "Whatever my argument is" is that a player will do better against bench players than against starters - surely an inconsequential detail in your mind!

My point exactly (actually points - once again instead of presenting some numbers/facts you attempt to simply tell me I don't understand basketball even though somehow I programmed a simulation which accurately predicted Warriors in 7 and Cavs in 6).

I just made a simulation in R that accurately predicted the Warriors in 7 as well. I took the average and standard deviation of both teams' points per game, generated 7 observations, and wouldn't you know, the Thunder had more points 3 times! Everyone buy my awesome simulation please. I might make an updated version at some point that gives a bonus to the home team and rounds the point totals to the nearest whole number.

Kanter can't guard Curry any better than Adams can so if either guy is going to get torched by OKC's decision to switch on the PnR then you can't even fathom an argument that playing the guy who can contribute something on offense might have an impact when either way you're giving up the points on defense?

Yep, it's unfathomable to me because Kanter would be going against better defenders and clogging up the spacing just as much as Adams would, all so he could take possessions away from the better offensive players on his team; at best it would have been a net zero on offense in exchange for completely abandoning the defensive strategy that resulted in the Thunder being close in the first place. Steven Adams has proven himself to be just as good, if not better, at finishing pick-and-rolls than Kanter.

If the opponent's center was the star offensive player then yes Adams is going to have a much bigger impact but Bogut/Ezeli/Speights/worst offensive option in the small lineup isn't going to do anything more against Kanter than Adams and Adams proved he was totally ineffective when switched onto Curry so it doesn't matter if its Adams, Kanter or Rumble getting torched.

Again, a playoff series consists of more than one game. This is also a gross failure to understand how a pick and roll works and that if you don't switch a big guy out on Steph Curry, your options are either to give Steph Curry a wide-open three every single time or to trap Curry and give Draymond Green the opportunity to play 4-on-3 every time. I think Gregg Popovich knows a good deal more about basketball than me, and he didn't play Tim Duncan (who is still among the best defensive players in the league against the other 28 teams) against the Warriors for this very reason.

And since you don't ever offer up anything but opinion what is your proof that Kanter is "the worst defensive center in the league"?

Jesus Christ, there is so much proof out there that Enes Kanter is already a running joke on Twitter and everywhere else for his horrible defense that I declined to go into great detail because it felt like piling on. Contrary to the average FOFCer, I don't really care to attribute everything a player does badly to a lack of moral character or whatever. He's just bad at defense in pretty much every way a player can be bad. Sometimes it's because he's lazy, sometimes it's because he doesn't have good awareness, sometimes it's because he doesn't understand the call or schemes and is out of position, sometimes it's because he's not agile, sometimes it's because he can't jump very high - there's a lot to choose from.

He played against other teams' bench players. Other teams' bench players tend to be worse than their starters, otherwise they would be starting. I'm basing Kanter's bad defense on stats that actually try to account for the players he played with and against such as box plus-minus and real plus-minus. I'm also basing it on watching games. If you had fun playing 'film room' on the times Adams got scored on (most teams score over 100 points per game in the NBA and most of the time that happens somebody on defense probably could have done something better. That's how it goes), just wait until you see Kanter!

I'm also basing it on the fact that after he got traded last season for nothing but draft picks, the Jazz's defensive rating improved by over 8 points to become the best in the league (while the team went 19-10 after being 19-34 with him despite making no move other than giving more minutes to a guy who sucks according to most of the FOFC basketball 'brain trust' because he scores less than Kanter), and the Thunder's defense became equivalent to the worst in the league with him in the lineup despite him starting alongside good defenders such as Ibaka and Roberson. There could not be a more overwhelming body of evidence out there already that Kanter sucks on defense. You could have spent literally 30 seconds Googling 'enes kanter defense' and skimming the results, but instead you tried to play the 'you didn't cite any numbers' card just to be a pompous ass.

Originally Posted by whomario

And no ones saying you shouldn't utilize those 2 and its not entirely the coaches fault their 3rd best perimeter option is an iso-guy himself, but its still pretty blatant how incredibly basic their offense has stayed for years now.

Because if all the other players happened to be offensively skilled enough to consistently score on the Warriors (the best defense in the league last year and the fifth-best this year despite cruising much of the second half of the season) while also being long and athletic and defensively-minded enough to keep the Warriors in check, either the Thunder would be the team with an NBA-record number of wins or players such as Ibaka, Roberson and Adams would have been top-five picks the Thunder never could have acquired? Either way, pretty funny to see this line of thinking when apparently a week and two pages in the thread ago Billy Donovan deserved the credit for the 3-1 lead because he had changed the culture of the Thunder and had them playing like an entirely different team, and to suggest that the Thunder were mostly doing better because their two stars were playing more minutes was ludicrous.

[murrayyyyy]

Sacramento Kings PG Darren Collison Arrested On Domestic Violence « CBS Sacramento

Welp, lets hope there aren't any video tapes because the Kings didn't come out and defend him immediately.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by wustin

Top image is Steven Adam's defensive stats against GSW during the regular and postseason. Bottom image is Kanter's. I understand just about any big man will get lit up by Curry but the point is Kanter's defense relative to the other big men OKC plays is not great.

I completely agree that Kanter's defense is poor compared to anyone let alone Adams and Ibaka.

Adams was a -32 for the series. The only point a few of us are trying to make is really what was the downside of trying Kanter? It would be one thing if Adams was a net zero or a positive player in the series and the only thing was Curry torching him on switches but Adams wasn't that. I think its at least fair to say that maybe Kanter, if used as a proper third offensive option, would have scored enough points to matter. He sure as hell is a better and more consistent option than anyone else they have as a third choice. Maybe OKC would have lost in 7, maybe Kanter would be a -100 for the series and they get blown out in 4. Maybe they should have played small to match Golden State. Its all just a bunch of what-if because what they did do didn't work. There's no consolation in losing in 7 - they still lost.

Nobody has suggested that Donovan cost them the series by not playing Kanter - I think everyone who has mentioned it pretty much agrees that the basis of the argument was that Adams really wasn't a positive factor so maybe Kanter's offensive output could have outweighed however much worse he would have been defensively which in this series I really don't think it would have been that much. Neither guy was stopping anything on the perimeter and there really wasn't a low post threat to worry about stopping.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

I completely agree that Kanter's defense is poor compared to anyone let alone Adams and Ibaka.

Adams was a -32 for the series. The only point a few of us are trying to make is really what was the downside of trying Kanter?... Maybe OKC would have lost in 7, maybe Kanter would be a -100 for the series and they get blown out in 4.

One, there is ample evidence to suggest that the likelihood of getting demolished is not a maybe but a near-certainty. Two, if the Warriors wipe the floor with the Thunder in a sweep maybe Kevin Durant decides he's seen enough and leaves. Maybe Russell Westbrook wants out after that. Maybe then the Thunder would go from a championship contender to a cellar dweller almost immediately. Other than that, what's the downside?

News flash: any player who plays against the Warriors' best players for any extended amount of time will have a negative plus-minus because the Warriors are the best team and win more games than all the other teams (if you require me to cite a number rather than just an opinion, the Warriors won 67 regular season games and the title last season and won an NBA record 73 games this year). If you play most of the minutes, you get most of the negative result that is typically associated with playing against the Warriors assigned to your plus-minus. Kawhi Leonard was -37 against the Warriors in 4 games this season, so I guess it would have been worth a shot to sub him out for Kevin Martin or Jonathan Simmons - that's exactly what you're arguing. If a football team has trouble stopping the run, might as well have some cornerbacks try playing defensive line because it's not like they were gonna stop the run anyways, plus they'll have a greater chance of intercepting a pass that comes their way!

Neither guy was stopping anything on the perimeter* and there really wasn't a low post threat to worry about stopping.

*In one game of the series, when Steven Adams was 'lit up' so badly that the Warriors scored 96 points at home and were well below their average offensive efficiency for the season. Apparently over the other 6 games when the Warriors were also less efficient on offense than they were during the regular season, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were magically stopping themselves.

What do you realistically expect a #3 option on offense to do? Steven Adams averaged 10 points a game on over 50% shooting (and shoots a higher percentage than Kanter whether you want to break it down over the series, the playoffs, or the entire season while also having a higher assist/turnover ratio), and even if you choose to stay ignorant about how plus-minus and individual defensive rating depend on who's on the court at the same, you already pointed out that his defensive rating is approximately 7 points per game better than Kanter's (which would be closer to 25 points per game better if Kanter played against the other team's best players). So Kanter would have had to average a minimum of 17 points a game to even start to make up for the difference defensively. That would have been 74 points per game combined from Westbrook, Durant, and Kanter (assuming that Kanter magically doesn't take any scoring opportunities away from the other two), which would make the regular season offensive exploits of pretty much any Big Three from history look rather pedestrian.

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Shocked the Cavs have 6 guys shooting over 44% from 3 in the playoffs.

Why? Many of these players have shot already 40 percent on other teams that didn't have LeBron James giving them unguarded catch-and-shoot opportunities. It's more shocking to me that someone like Kevin Love shoots a lower percentage for Cleveland than he did for Minnesota.

[Zinto]

Game one tonight! What team is going to win the series and in how many games?