The Biden Presidency - 2020

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Honestly, if that's Manchin's stance, they should just wrap this up, vote, and move on. Anything else is just theater at this point.

Based on the little I have read about what is going on this week, all of it was just theater. That also seems to be the case for at least the last two SC confirmation hearings. It would probably be a good idea and be more of an efficient use of time to just vote on the nominee 30 days after the President has announced the nomination. Unless it is the theater is what we actually value.

[RainMaker]

The confirmation hearing is a manufactured thing. The early part of the country they would just have a quick up-down vote on the nominee, usually the same day.

It changed when Brandeis was nominated because he was anti-monopoly and Jewish. A ton of money was behind smearing Brandeis. Kind of where we are at today.

I should add that KBJ has been pretty pro-busines as a Judge. Probably why you aren't seeing the kind of money being thrown in and accusations against her on that. Most of the opposition is based on her race.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

McConnell's announcement is just a calculated political ploy. He knew Manchin was going to vote for her, that his vote wouldn't matter, and that it made far more sense to play to the base versus cast a yes vote that doesn't matter. This has nothing to do with consistency, or what he truly believes about her, or anything other than a pure political calculation. And TBF, it's how he's gotten where he is today.

Oh for sure, hence my moniker for him. Say what you want, but he plays the game as good as anyone, even though it is extremely transparent to anyone with a shred of critical thinking skills.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

The only guy whose opinion matters has spoken on the Jackson's confirmation:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/polit...ote/index.html

Glad the Prime Minister agrees.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The confirmation hearing is a manufactured thing. The early part of the country they would just have a quick up-down vote on the nominee, usually the same day.

It changed when Brandeis was nominated because he was anti-monopoly and Jewish. A ton of money was behind smearing Brandeis. Kind of where we are at today.

I should add that KBJ has been pretty pro-busines as a Judge. Probably why you aren't seeing the kind of money being thrown in and accusations against her on that. Most of the opposition is based on her race.

God, just reading Brandeis's wikipedia page...

Originally Posted by wiki

Throughout his long public career, Louis D. Brandeis consistently pursued one major ideal: that of a liberal progressive society based on democracy and social justice. Brandeis early became convinced that the gigantic trusts which by 1900 had come to dominate large segments of American business not only were hopelessly inefficient in a narrow economic sense but also menaced the very existence of political democracy itself….[H]e sought to ameliorate what he called the “curse of bigness” and to establish a new industrial democracy based on a partnership between business, organized labor, and the public….He never challenged the fundamentals of capitalism itself; rather he looked back with nostalgic longing toward the vanished Jeffersonian notion of a self-regulated economic order characterized by competition among a great variety of small entrepreneurs

Also, this is why you notice none of these justices from either side of the aisle are anti-big business. And they all went to Harvard or Yale. Having someone like that on the courts now would be a minor miracle and they would never have enough power to actually exact change.

SI

[Vegas Vic]

Watching his speech right now, I'm wondering what are the odds that he's going to plagiarize part of an old Winston Churchill speech? Something like "Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duty and so bear ourselves that Ukraine lasts for a thousand years men will still say, 'this was their finest hour'."

[Edward64]

Thought it was a pretty good speech

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Thought it was a pretty good speech

Yes it was unless he isn’t your team like usual in this “country”.

[Lathum]

I’m at a bar having a couple beers while my daughter is in art class. Guy next to me has gone through the gamete with his buddy. Started by complaining about the saint peters players and coaches wearing BLM shirts. The complaining about the Mexicans working for his landscaping company having to be paid too much now he is, lord help me, saying what an awesome interview kid rock was on Fox and he loves him because he tells it like it is. Not enough beer.

[Ksyrup]

We need to somehow change the "tells it like it is" thing to "tells it like it was."

[sterlingice]

I was talking to another parent yesterday at the playground who is black and is a scanning tech at a hospital in Houston. She was telling me a patient came in the other day and told her "we're going to take back over and when we do, you're going to have to decide what side you're on". Apparently dude also told that to her Asian coworker but not the white one who also saw him. She said she's heard worse and just took it in stride.

I ask her how she processes this crazy stuff in real time with him right there. It sounds to me like he basically wakes up every morning, waiting for the Revolution to arrive. He even goes around, unprompted at his doctor's office, and is spreading tales of it like crazy. Either it's basically a veiled threat like "if you don't side with us, we're going to kill you" and he gets off on that power trip. Or he actually thinks he's doing them a solid, like "hey, they did me right here at the doctor's office so the neighborly thing to do is to warn them about this thing they don't know about and save them because they're one of the 'good ones'".

SI

[Lathum]

Was it like this before 2016? Obviously these people always had these thoughts, but did Trump make it OK to say them out loud?

[AlexB]

Trump, social media, parts of the mainstream media, education, societal imbalance… Trump is a reflection of a large proportion of society IMHO, not the cause of it

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Was it like this before 2016? Obviously these people always had these thoughts, but did Trump make it OK to say them out loud?

That's my take. Obviously there's a variety of factors, as AlexB points out, but Trump was the catalyst. Finally, a politician who says the stuff out loud that all these folks want to say out loud. And that's why they love him.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Guy next to me has gone through the gamete with his buddy.

Wait...what kind of bar was this again?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Wait...what kind of bar was this again?

Did anyone else need to look up the definition of "gamete"?

[Flasch186]

The movie US by Jordan Peele is the perfect explanation of the trumpets… that was misspelled but I’m leaving it.


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[Kodos]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Did anyone else need to look up the definition of "gamete"?

I figured it was a talk-to-text error with "gamete" being used instead of "gamut". Or some spermutation of that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I figured it was a talk-to-text error with "gamete" being used instead of "gamut". Or some spermutation of that.

Yeah. I was typing at a bar on my phone with my sausage fingers.

[GrantDawg]

The numbers I am seeing for the mid-terms look bad bad bad.

[albionmoonlight]

Yup. Midterms will be a bloodbath. Which is kind of crazy. The Ukraine situation is going better than could have been hoped and that's without any commitment of American troops. Economy is growing at fastest pace since the 80s. Unemployment is at rock bottom. Wages are going up. COVID cases at lowest levels in a long time.

It is amazing how much gas prices seem to be what motivates people.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The numbers I am seeing for the mid-terms look bad bad bad.

Likely, but every time the GOP gets in front of cameras and reminds people they're really only the party of rich, old white men it hurts them. KJB was the 2nd most popular Supreme Court nominee in recent memory and a non-critical nominee for majority yet they still tried to tear her down. The GOP would have really scored points with voters if they had showed a Supreme Court nominee could get bipartisan support. This one was set on a tee for them and they had to double down on nonsense. All they had to do was soft toss her a couple CRT questions and other popular GOP issues and move on with confirmation.

With that said, inflation and gas prices are killing Biden right now with voters.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yup. Midterms will be a bloodbath. Which is kind of crazy. The Ukraine situation is going better than could have been hoped and that's without any commitment of American troops. Economy is growing at fastest pace since the 80s. Unemployment is at rock bottom. Wages are going up. COVID cases at lowest levels in a long time.

It is amazing how much gas prices seem to be what motivates people.

Wages may be going up, but slower than prices. Most people have less spending power.

[GrantDawg]

Gas prices, inflation and shortages. Those are things people can really feel every day.

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[RainMaker]

Child tax credit got pulled from a lot of people. An increase in wages is completely offset by inflation. Green deal bombed. The campaign promise of student loan help was abandoned. Voting rights are being stripped without any fight. And no one seems to be bothered enough to go after people who brazenly commit crimes.

At some point you actually have to do something to make people care about voting for you. Especially when Trump isn't on the ballot.

[thesloppy]

The GOP taking Madison Cawthorn's coke and orgies comments and making them even worse is hilarious & absurd.

GOP leader McCarthy says Madison Cawthorn ‘lost my trust’ over ‘orgies’ and ‘cocaine’ claims

"After questioning, the GOP leader said that Mr Cawthorn now admits that “he thinks he saw maybe a staffer in a parking garage maybe 100 yards away,” adding that the congressman told him “he doesn’t know what cocaine is”."

[RainMaker]

I thought Cawthorne was just lying but the way McCarthy made a big stink about the whole thing actually leaves me more suspicious. Like why on Earth does he care?

[Atocep]

I was curious and looked at Marjorie Taylor Greene's legislative history and she hasn't so much as cosponsored a bill that's passed house vote. She's also been a no vote on bills with less than 5 no votes three times. Yet she's raised 4 times the amount of the average House member for '22.

[albionmoonlight]

I just saw that someone named "Peters" predicted that the Dems would hold the Senate. And, thinking that he was some sort of political science type, let my hopes get a little up.

Nope. Turns out that it is Democratic Senator Peters, who is leading the party's attempt to keep control.

Might be time to log off.

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt gives Dems a 25% chance to hold the Senate, 18% to hold the House.

[Lathum]

18% seems high. I would lay -500 easily the right takes it back.

[GrantDawg]

I'm trying to think of a scenario that could turn things around, but I am at a loss. It would take a major Republican scandal (but there have already been so many nobody cares anymore) or huge drops in consumer pricing. Even then, I don't know if there is a way to salvage the huge negatives that this extended bout of inflation has caused.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm trying to think of a scenario that could turn things around, but I am at a loss. It would take a major Republican scandal (but there have already been so many nobody cares anymore) or huge drops in consumer pricing. Even then, I don't know if there is a way to salvage the huge negatives that this extended bout of inflation has caused.

I agree. With Trump, all things are possible for good or ill, which adds some inherent uncertainty to any prediction. And there is always the chance that there won't be one national mood change but a couple of independent implosions of GOP candidates in swing races for unrelated reasons.

But that is really really grasping at straws. I'd say that the House is 95%+ likely to go GOP and the Senate is ~90%.

Sigh.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm trying to think of a scenario that could turn things around, but I am at a loss. It would take a major Republican scandal (but there have already been so many nobody cares anymore) or huge drops in consumer pricing. Even then, I don't know if there is a way to salvage the huge negatives that this extended bout of inflation has caused.

Bad things happen to D's they don't fight the narrative that it's their fault....when bad things happen to R's they blame on everything under the sun, with no explanations for how or why it's not their fault, it's just someone else's doing.

It's all in the perspective. D personalities love to explain why you're wrong 'help' you understand why it is this way....R's generally don't care if you know or not, they want to you know whose fault it 'truly' is.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm trying to think of a scenario that could turn things around, but I am at a loss. It would take a major Republican scandal (but there have already been so many nobody cares anymore) or huge drops in consumer pricing. Even then, I don't know if there is a way to salvage the huge negatives that this extended bout of inflation has caused.

Agree. Can't think of anything Biden can do that will be enough.

I do think Biden has done okay domestically and pretty well internationally (other than for some specific quips) with what he was dealt with. I'm okay with a GOP congress and Biden probably will be also (to help manage expectations of the extremists).

The real question in my mind is will true Trump loyalists overwhelm Congress or will there be more "traditional" GOP.

[PilotMan]

Politicians and ultra rich donors (corporate and personal; private lobbyists) have ruined our government.

[RainMaker]

The fact that the Dems are running ads bragging about a tax cut they just let expire is probably a bad sign for what they can run on this year.

I do think there will be a lot of establishment Dems who will breathe a sigh of relief after they lose. Can go back to complaining and raising money without any expectations.

[Brian Swartz]

Those odds are probably as high as they are because there's still a long time till November. There isn't much most presidents can do even in good times to prevent losses in mid-terms, so I think too much is being made of this unless it turns into a total landslide (possible).

There have certainly been things that have gone very badly for Biden and the Democrats, but even if that hadn't happened, even if we didn't have inflation issues, they would *still* probably lose Congress. That could have been predicted at the latest when Biden's term *began*. 2024 is where the real question is. I think that will be the defining election of possibly the rest of my adulthood. Partly because it's a very open question how much the vote will even matter, how much abuse of power happens at the state level with elector certification, does the republic even continue to function, do we have a 'nuclear option' situation where both major party nominees show up to the inauguration expecting to be inaugurated, etc. We'll either take a step back from the brink at that point, or fall off the cliff.

[RainMaker]

From what I've read, redistricting has been kind to the Democrats and they have been able to gerrymander away some seats. So that might play a role in it as well.

[Solecismic]

I think it has reached a point that no matter who wins in 2024, the majority of the people on the other team will firmly believe that the election was stolen.

That's not a statement that I think it will be stolen, just a statement about how deeply divided we are as a country and how different the narrative is depending on who you believe are the sources of not-fake news.

[RainMaker]

Pretty good rundown of the Hunter Biden laptop. Washington Post hired two skilled computer experts to go through it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...data-examined/

Seems the biggest issue is that so many people went through and tried to fuck around on the hard drive that it makes it really hard to verify what is real. They do seem to have a pretty good sense that the e-mails are authentic. Although it doesn't seem like there was much salacious stuff in them.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I think it has reached a point that no matter who wins in 2024, the majority of the people on the other team will firmly believe that the election was stolen.

That's not a statement that I think it will be stolen, just a statement about how deeply divided we are as a country and how different the narrative is depending on who you believe are the sources of not-fake news.

And that's a huge win for the post-truth far-right. I can show where voter suppression is helping the GOP, just look at the data coming out of the TX primary, but there's literally no evidence of wide-spread fraud. To just write it off as both sides... gives the GOP what they are after.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm trying to think of a scenario that could turn things around, but I am at a loss. It would take a major Republican scandal (but there have already been so many nobody cares anymore) or huge drops in consumer pricing. Even then, I don't know if there is a way to salvage the huge negatives that this extended bout of inflation has caused.

Hard to predict the impact of ending Roe and a flood of abortion bans will do for November, but it's going to play a big role.

[miked]

The trend will continue that the party with the least amount of votes will continue to rig the process to keep control. I mean, we've gotten to a point where dems need to win +6% or so to stay in power thanks to redistricting.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I think it has reached a point that no matter who wins in 2024, the majority of the people on the other team will firmly believe that the election was stolen.

I don't think we have a good reason to think Democrats would do that. Republicans, yes. But the Virginia governor's race just as one example, they accepted the outcome. I think if Trump were to run again and beat Biden (or whatever), they'd be very, very angry. The #NotMyPresident protests would be a pleasant memory. But there's just no major movement on that side of the electorate to not accept the results of elections.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I think it has reached a point that no matter who wins in 2024, the majority of the people on the other team will firmly believe that the election was stolen.

That's not a statement that I think it will be stolen, just a statement about how deeply divided we are as a country and how different the narrative is depending on who you believe are the sources of not-fake news.

I think we need to know more about your sources.

The difference is that Democrats are complaining about voter suppression, for which there is plenty of evidence, while Republicans are complaining about voter fraud, for which there is almost no evidence (and, LOL, many if not most of the cases involve fraud committed by Republicans).

For someone who successfully applies an objective and data-driven approach to football, which I appreciate, I have always been mystified by why you can't do the same for political topics.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think we have a good reason to think Democrats would do that. Republicans, yes. But the Virginia governor's race just as one example, they accepted the outcome. I think if Trump were to run again and beat Biden (or whatever), they'd be very, very angry. The #NotMyPresident protests would be a pleasant memory. But there's just no major movement on that side of the electorate to not accept the results of elections.

Many Democrats complained that election was stolen in 2000(Bush v Gore),2004, and to a lesser extent in 2016.

[Ksyrup]

Yes, there was some noise in 2016 among House Dems but they couldn't get enough support from Senate Dems to make anything of it. And the vast majority of Democrat leadership acknowledged Trump's victory within hours/days of the election.

I think if Trump won again (fairly, without state election interference/help), there would certainly be anger but I think most of it (at least, the rational part) would be focused on the voter suppression laws and fears about what he will do as President. That said, when you have someone who so clearly attempted to illegally take the presidency 4 years earlier, I can't think of a better scenario for assuming fraud/illegality was the reason for his win, even if you can't find the evidence. So, I'm a little mixed on how loudly the Dems would proclaim that this must be fraud just based on past bad acts. It will certainly put them in a catch 22 to do so, without any evidence.

Just another reason why I hope Trump doesn't (or can't) run for president.

[albionmoonlight]

Eurozone inflation soars to record 7.5 percent in March – POLITICO

Americans' takeaway: Biden is such a bad president that he's making inflation go up EVERYWHERE

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Eurozone inflation soars to record 7.5 percent in March – POLITICO

Americans' takeaway: Biden is such a bad president that he's making inflation go up EVERYWHERE

Gas prices, too!

SI