If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think we're coming close to a tipping point for Trumpism. 43% of republicans in an ABC poll want someone other than Trump leading the part, with vast majority of those people approving of the job he did as President.

A few GOP folks--most publicly DeSantis--are gunning for that Trump lane in the GOP. And, critically, Trump hasn't been able to destroy them and make them come back and kiss the ring like he did with Cruz.

The longer DeSantis is allowed to signal that he's Trumpism without Trump, the more that Trump's base will wander over to him (or Abbott or whoever ends up as that guy)

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Did you mean witch?

Does she float?

[flere-imsaho]

I don't think we should count Trump out, yet. Especially if he ends up back on Twitter. The incredible amplification of his every message will allow him to shape messaging a lot.

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think that anyone should count out Trump either.

I just think that if he goes down, it won't be because people finally realized that he's stupid and corrupt and racist. It will be because someone even stupider and more corrupt and more racist steals his base.

[cuervo72]

The interesting thing though might be to witness an actual fight between Trump and someone like DeSantis. Let's face it, Rubio and Cruz and the like are not the fighting type. They and everyone else in 2016 folded, rolled over to Trump from a fight standpoint. I don't know that DeSantis would do that. Also, I feel like the Governor pulpit is a stronger one than that of Senator. At least for a big state.

[flere-imsaho]

Senators traditionally make poor POTUS candidates, especially when compared to Governors. IMO, it's because being in the Senate means more votes on the record, more opportunities for equivocation, etc.... Also, you're not really "in charge" of anything.

[albionmoonlight]

One of Trump's great skills, IMO, is having the instinct for when to jump into a fight and when to keep his powder dry.

The fact that he hasn't attacked DeSantis yet is telling. It means that his instincts are telling him that it's a fight he might not win.

[flere-imsaho]

You can call it a skill, but it's just the nature of a bully to me. Trump doesn't pick on people unless he's sure they can't do him harm.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You can call it a skill, but it's just the nature of a bully to me. Trump doesn't pick on people unless he's sure they can't do him harm.

100% and that is exactly why he has been hands on on DeSantis

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I don't think that anyone should count out Trump either.

I just think that if he goes down, it won't be because people finally realized that he's stupid and corrupt and racist. It will be because someone even stupider and more corrupt and more racist steals his base.

I fear it won't be anyone "stupider." I fear it is going to be someone who is smart enough to really go the direction Trump was headed.

[Lathum]

My mother in law posted some meme basically saying Trump was right about everything and we should have listened to him. One of her buddies then posted a bunch of bullet points about how things would be if he was still in charge.

In back to back points she said

"Russia wouldn't have attacked Ukraine if Trump was in charge"

"If Trump was in charge he would have given military aid to Ukraine much quicker"

[JPhillips]

But even if think you have a 67% chance of beating Trump in a primary, who has the guts to actually run and risk their political career if Trump guts them? That's why I think it's still Trump's nomination if he wants it and basically nobody will contest him.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My mother in law posted some meme basically saying Trump was right about everything and we should have listened to him. One of her buddies then posted a bunch of bullet points about how things would be if he was still in charge.

In back to back points she said

"Russia wouldn't have attacked Ukraine if Trump was in charge"

"If Trump was in charge he would have given military aid to Ukraine much quicker"

Did her friend mention how getting dirt on Hunter Biden would have affected the timeline on that military aid?

[GrantDawg]

In the Georgia GOP primary for Governor, the Trump-backed candidate David Perdue has suddenly gone quiet. The money that had been pouring in from out of state has suddenly dried up, and he only has three scheduled events for the last week of the campaign. I'm sure pretty soon the Trump camp will claim they really never supported Perdue in the first place, and it was all fake news.

[cuervo72]

Living With The Far-Right Insurgency In Idaho | HuffPost Latest News

Worth a read.

[BYU 14]

Idaho has been a haven for this type of crap for as long as I can remember, going back to when I was growing up in Utah in the 70's and 80's, but this is scary even be those standards.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Living With The Far-Right Insurgency In Idaho | HuffPost Latest News

Worth a read.

And Ammon Bundy finds himself in the center of it. Shocking...

[molson]

Definitely a very common discussion in Idaho these days, whether people want to leave or not, and how big the far-right element actually is relative to how loud they are. We'll find out a lot tonight.

I may have vented about this here before, but the weird thing about living in a deep red state as a liberal is that your personal relationships are mostly the same as they'd be anywhere else. I just went on a trip with 15 Idahoan friends - no trumpers, no anti-vaxxers. I don't have a single Trumper or anti-vaxxer friend or acquaintance. I didn't really do that on purpose. But if you're in Boise and my age or younger, you can assume that the people around you that you come across at parties, bars, through friends of friends, through volunteering - really anything outside of a church context - are most likely liberals or at least moderate apolitical types. The far right people are closed off in their families, churches, and smaller communities I'm not a part of.

Of course overturning Roe v. Wade and everything that may come after cuts through all that and impacts peoples' lives. Some people are thinking of leaving because of that. And this general fear of a far-right takeover.

And then there's another dynamic of liberals fleeing public service. Our liberal mayor talked about this a while ago - there's a kind of a weird pressure from liberals for other liberals not to not join, or to leave, "conservative" institutions like red state and local governments, especially law enforcement and the criminal justice system. I have felt that kind of pushback a time or two, nothing super hostile in real life, but just a "how can you work there", or "will you leave if X political event happens" kind of vibe. That's always been very weird and backwards to me. Don't we want to encourage liberals, or at least non-crazies, to become public servants at all levels? It seems like the far-right gameplan is to drive us out, but, many liberals also seem to want us out and to abandon these institutions.

I'm inclined to stay, both physically in the state, and in public service, unless and until they make me leave the latter. There's two things that really make me feel like I'm helping out in the world - public service where I can be a non-crazy and ethical cog in the wheel that makes things a little better than they would be otherwise, and dog rescue. And I think I'm in the exact place I can do the best in both, because I'm established here in both things, and because it's maybe the place that needs the most help in both.

But a thing that stresses me out a lot these days is all my friends possibly moving away, and, what that kind of trend, more broadly, means for the state and the city. Trump really changed everything for the worse. I wish we'd all just hold our ground, at least in Boise, and not flee because the crazies talk tough and want us to leave.

Every once in a while someone will ask on Reddit whether they should move to Boise if they're gay/transgender/a minority or whatever and the majority response is always, "no, stay away, things are getting scary", and I respond, "please, come, we need you here".

I went to a drag show with some friends a few weeks ago and it was really uplifting - I was convinced from some of the things said there that there is a very proud element of "fuck you we're here and we're not going anywhere" attitude too. That defiance just feels different, more consequential, like a more meaningful kind of living then you'd have in a place where society didn't face the same challenges. But that's not everyone's cup of tea. I had to go to a drag show to find that kind of defiance I'm feeling, because most of my friends seem to be plotting escapes.

[Thomkal]

Looks like Cawthorn has LOST his primary-good riddance

[GrantDawg]

Man, he should of kept his mouth shut about the coke-filled orgies.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Man, he should of kept his mouth shut about the coke-filled orgies.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

At the very least, he should have been demanding to join them or reveal their existence.


I think a 7 month lame duck Cawthorn should be some good entertainment

[RainMaker]

PA nominated a fascist for Governor which is pretty wild.

[sabotai]

Extremely tight and still too close to call, but Trump backed Dr. Oz is a few thousand behind Dave McCormick in the GOP primary for PA Senate with 93% reporting. I mean all of the big names from the Trump administration backed Oz. Oz's entire ad campaign for the last month or two was "I'm Trump's guy!".

The main ads I've seen from McCormick have been painting Oz as a RINO and showing clips of him talking about the heartbeat abortion laws (as in, him being against them (at the time)).


I wonder if Dr. Oz going all in as a Trump supporter and then losing a GOP primary will be the end of his celebrity career (we could only be so lucky).

[molson]

Trump's governor choice in Idaho is getting smashed.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

PA nominated a fascist for Governor which is pretty wild.

yeah he's a real piece of work. The rest of the candidates were also pretty awful too.

[molson]

Idaho also has a 3-way secretary of state primary where 2 of the candidates say that Trump won the election, 1 says that Biden did. The Biden guy is way ahead of the pack. Looks like at least some sanity in the Idaho GOP primaries tonight. (and this is a state where there are no dem challengers).

[sabotai]

Looks like Oz slipped into the lead by less than a thousand votes. Looks like this one's gonna go on for awhile.

[sabotai]

And on the Democratic side, John Fetterman, who would win every election if it was decided in the blood dome, easily beat Conor Lamb.

[albionmoonlight]

Interesting re: Idaho. I wonder if the fact that it is safe red makes Republican voters more comfortable voting for the sane candidates.

If it were a swing state, would there be more pressure to nominate one of the "I will never accept a Democratic victory as legitimate" candidates?

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by molson

Trump's governor choice in Idaho is getting smashed.

I know after reading your words yesterday about your experiences there as a liberal, the Idaho primary results have to be a "breath" moment for you.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by molson

And then there's another dynamic of liberals fleeing public service. Our liberal mayor talked about this a while ago - there's a kind of a weird pressure from liberals for other liberals not to not join, or to leave, "conservative" institutions like red state and local governments, especially law enforcement and the criminal justice system.

I just wanted to say that I really appreciated this post, molson.

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Interesting re: Idaho. I wonder if the fact that it is safe red makes Republican voters more comfortable voting for the sane candidates.

If it were a swing state, would there be more pressure to nominate one of the "I will never accept a Democratic victory as legitimate" candidates?

This was definitely my take on Idaho politics between 2006 and Trump. The most qualified Republicans tended to be elected.

Since Trump, it feels like a two party-state, with the two shades of red fighting each other.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by sabotai

And on the Democratic side, John Fetterman, who would win every election if it was decided in the blood dome, easily beat Conor Lamb.

I dunno about right now. He had a pacemaker implanted and recently had a stroke.

[stevew]

Pretty alarming how bad PA is at elections. The fascist Governor candidate supposedly wants to make everyone register again. The only thing that’s been holding the loonies at bay for the past 8 years is Gov Wolf. And I don’t particularly like Wolf all that much. Now we have Donny dumps telling Oz to ignore tens of thousands of votes. It’s a sham.

[albionmoonlight]

I suggest no parties and just direct voting by the people of concise laws that everyone can understand

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 19, 2022

He's got the political beliefs of a 6th grader trying to sound smart.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: Not sure this belongs in the Trump thread, but I figured "celebrity businessman decides to embrace being a right wing loon and enters politics" was close enough.

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I suggest no parties and just direct voting by the people of concise laws that everyone can understand

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 19, 2022

He's got the political beliefs of a 6th grader trying to sound smart.

Or Libertarian, for short.

[RainMaker]

Well Elon's "I'm a right-winger now!" seems to have been trying to get out in front of the sex pest story.

[albionmoonlight]

Agreeing to buy Twitter to put the Nazis back on was probably a touch of overkill, but tacking right and saying that the media will now be out to get you is not the worst way to try to get ahead of a story like that.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: That said, I don't think that the turn to the right is entirely a head fake. As the tight labor market continues to allow unions to rise, you are going to see more and more billionaires start to decry the WoKe PoLiTIcs of the left.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Agreeing to buy Twitter to put the Nazis back on was probably a touch of overkill, but tacking right and saying that the media will now be out to get you is not the worst way to try to get ahead of a story like that.

Called that one, as it is exactly what he is saying this morning.

Beyond all this, I am still wondering why anything Elon Musk has to say is suddenly become of vital importance over the last few weeks

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Called that one, as it is exactly what he is saying this morning.

Beyond all this, I am still wondering why anything Elon Musk has to say is suddenly become of vital importance over the last few weeks

He's rich, causing controversy and he's threatening to buy one of the most used communication platforms of the day.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

He's rich, causing controversy and he's threatening to buy one of the most used communication platforms of the day.

And my question still stands LOL, because twitter I get, his opinions that nobody should give a shit about, not so much

[albionmoonlight]

Thinking about how big a scandal it would be if it turned out that the spouse of an NBA official had been trying to help one of the playoff teams cheat.

— Matthew Segal (@segalmr) May 20, 2022

[Ksyrup]

"I would invite you to co-author a bill that I'm considering next year that would mandate that each male, when they reach puberty, get a mandatory vasectomy that's only reversible when they reach the point of financial and emotional stability."

— OK State Rep. Mickey Dollens (D) pic.twitter.com/AvszMmDt7M

— The Recount (@therecount) May 20, 2022

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

"reach the point of ...emotional stability."

— OK State Rep. Mickey Dollens (D) pic.twitter.com/AvszMmDt7M

— The Recount (@therecount) May 20, 2022

So never then?

[NobodyHere]

Is he trying to write a Republican attack ad?

[RainMaker]

Good times at CPAC.

Viktor Orbán tells CPAC the path to power is to ‘have your own media’ and says shows like Tucker Carlson should be broadcast ‘24/7’ https://t.co/5zxUXFpwTH

— Robert Maguire (@RobertMaguire_) May 22, 2022

The Guardian on CPAC: “A notorious Hungarian racist who has called Jews ‘stinking excrement’, referred to Roma as ‘animals’ and used racial epithets to describe Black people, was a featured speaker at a major gathering of US Republicans in Budapest.” https://t.co/Ifqj5ce1zN

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) May 22, 2022

[NobodyHere]

Trump loses appeal, must testify in New York civil probe

So Trump has to tell the truth?

Or will he set the record for the amount of times "I don't recall" said in an hour.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Trump loses appeal, must testify in New York civil probe

So Trump has to tell the truth?

Or will he set the record for the amount of times "I don't recall" said in an hour.

Definitely the latter, but first it will be appeal,appeal, appeal