last minute fantasy advice?

[albionmoonlight]

I've been out of the game for a few years.

I'm back in our office league, which I'm in mainly to talk trash and drink beer at the draft.

But I'd also like to try and win.

Draft is this Monday.

Any random advice anyone would like to share? Sleepers on your team? Guys you think are overrated?

I'll share that TE Juwan Johnson on the Saints is a good sleeper pick. From what the local reporters are saying, he's been a favorite target of Carr in camp. And he's physically similar to Darren Waller, who Carr loved.

Graham will probably poach a few inside-the-five touchdowns from him, but I think that he's a good high upside late-round/low-money pick.

[QuikSand]

the conventional wisdom to wait at QB seems to be in more jeopardy as an optimal strategy than in recent years... a lot of sharps seem to be advising "get one of the top tier of guys" this year, or singling out specific upside plays like Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert as wiseguy targets. I have not yet followed this advice, but it seems to be in the breeze more than I can recall among the wizened. If you wait at QB, Daniel Jones is a punchline but an honest sneaky upside play, people somehow don't realize he runs as much as he does.

There's usually a RB "dead zone" after the fairly sure things are sifted through, in most years it seems to happen around pick 25-40 and lasts maybe 30 picks in a typical draft. Depending on your scoring system, the key guys to pay attention to are the value RB who should go later in the draft but potentially yield RB2 value, but not at the cost of a top-three round pick. Mostly looking for RBs who have a legit claim on either passing targets, short-duty TD opportunities, or potentially both.

Guys I like of that stripe: Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Khalil Herbert, Zach Charbonnet, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, Damien Harris, Elijah Mitchell, Tyler Allgeier. I am leaving drafts with two or three guys from this list, reliably. I think it's fine to have guys like that in a rotation for your RB2 slot if your roster feels strong to reflect what you did there (like a premium TE instead of a RB2 in some slot like round 3/4). If these are your RB3 guys, then you are likely in a strong position, as long as you find value elsewhere.

As long as guys like this are around, keep takign them, instead of loading too deep at WR - I cap my WR room at the max I can start +1, for the most part.

I agree on Juwan Johnson as a late round TE. Waller himself seems like an upside play based on everyone who has visited Giants camp, that team has 14 slot receivers and only one guy who looks like he could actually play the X, and that's (oddly enough often just a superslot guy himself) Waller. I don't know if I'm buying it 100% but if he's TE6 or TE8 in your league, there's TE2 upside based on both history and current scheme-readiness.

Wait until a handful of defenses are off the board and take one, same with kickers. Don't go two rounds early, but don't go last, if you can help it. Picking D in round 13 and K in round 15 of a 16-round draft is likely a sweet spot, overall. Lists will vary wildly at those positions, as will results.

[Maple Leafs]

If you've been out of fantasy football for a few years, the big change in philosophy has been around RBs.

Five years ago, they were gold and everyone wanted two good ones, which usually meant spending two of your first three picks. But since then, somewhat in line with ho the actual NFL is valuing the position, fantasy experts have backed off. Now you hear a lot about Zero RB (basically punting the position for the first five rounds or so and then taking a bunch of lower tier guys and lottery tickets and hoping two of them hit) or Hero RB (taking one of the top guys and then backing off). You're also seeing some people double-down on the old way, figuring that if everyone else is chasing WRs and TEs now is the time to finally get two studs.

I don't know that any one approach has been proven best, although I can't remember a year where there were as few sure-thing RBs as this year. But it's good to have a plan going in, even a flexible one.

tldr: Don't be shocked if your league isn't drafting RBs the way you're used to from years ago.

[molson]

As soon as I decided I didn't want to draft RBs high anymore I ended up drafting a ton of them early because nobody else wanted to either.

But ya, the bust rate first round RBs has been crazy, and WRs like Jefferson and Chase and Hill seem like sure things.

[dubb93]

RBs have killed me consistently for a while now. That and not drafting a QB. My advice would be to draft a good TE and WR early and get one of the top QB. I left my draft with Dobbins/Hall/Pacheco as my RBs and I don’t really care because I got Mahomes, what I consider two WR1s and Hockenson.

Don’t be the first to draft defense but after it’s started don’t wait. Kicker doesnt matter. Wait for a run, not just someone took one, and then pick a guy on a big offense.

[molson]

If you're going to swap Ds every week, Washington might be a decent last draft pick, they play Arizona week 1.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by molson

If you're going to swap Ds every week, Washington might be a decent last draft pick, they play Arizona week 1.

Check out the Saints schedule and the list of QBs they play. They are going to have alot of favorable matchups as they play their own division twice (Ridder, Young, Mayfield), the AFC South (Two rookie QBs), and the NFC North (Love and Fields). They also get Mac and Daniel Jones as well as the Rams who can’t seem to protect Stafford.

[albionmoonlight]

Thanks to all. As you can see, I took a decent amount of your advice. Our league has one IR spot, so I grabbed Taylor to place on IR and make a waiver claim on Tank Bigsbee.

Otherwise, we seem to have a fair amount of upside but also a pretty low floor if some of these young guys don't hit. That should make for a fun season.

QB
Jalen Hurts

RB
Bijan Robinson

RB
James Conner

WR
Chris Olave

WR
Christian Watson

TE
Juwan Johnson

FLEX
D'Andre Swift

D/ST
Saints D/ST

K
Evan McPherson

Bench
George Pickens WR
Zay Flowers WR
Damien Harris RB
Tyler Allgeier RB
Bryce Young QB
Tyjae Spears RB
Jonathan Taylor RB

[QuikSand]

pretty nice

[QuikSand]

I feel invested here. Swift was a major disappointment/twist, wonder if he regains the top slot, or if they’ll turn into a week by week mystery. Allgeier looks like a nice value late. Not a roster in bad shape, overall.

[albionmoonlight]

Happy to keep it updated as a mini-dynasty.

We are 0-1 after losing to what I think is probably the best team in the league (McCaffery, Josh Allen, AJ Brown (not sure how we let that happen)).

We also had a guy who missed the draft and got autodrafted and then I think wanted to have a team that he felt more ownership of, so he made a lot of waiver wire changes, and the upshot is that I got Kyle Pitts when he dropped him. Does not seem like a gamechanger, but worth keeping on the bench, I think. Does mean that I didn't grab Tank Bigsbee, who scored last week, so I hope that does not come back to bite me.

And definitely in wait and see mode on Swift and Pickens. That Pitt offense might just be horrible. Both those guys are on notice.

Zay Flowers is nice, though. Definitely starting quality while Watson (who I still have hopes for) heals his hamstring.

[Kodos]

Don't draft Aaron Rodgers.

[albionmoonlight]

I checked. The person who drafted Rodgers went super QB heavy, so they also have Lamar, so it turns out to be fine for them.

[miked]

My opponent had the Dallas defense, which outscored most of my team. And Tyreek Hill.

[albionmoonlight]

A trade offer for us to groupthink:

I have been offered WR Drake London (ATL) for WR George Pickens (PIT)

My roster is currenty:

QB
Jalen Hurts

RB
Bijan Robinson

RB
James Conner

WR
Chris Olave

WR
Christian Watson

TE
Juwan Johnson

FLEX
D'Andre Swift

D/ST
Saints D/ST

K
Evan McPherson

BENCH
George Pickens WR
Zay Flowers WR
Damien Harris RB
Tyler Allgeier RB
Bryce Young QB
Tyjae Spears RB
Kyle Pitts TE

INJURED RESERVE
Jonathan Taylor RB

On the one hand, I was just posting that Pickens was on notice and cutable.

On the other hand, these guys are pretty similar (talented WRs who will be held back by their offenses) and I already have a lot of Falcons, so it probably makes sense to decline the trade and keep up my diversity.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

On the one hand, I was just posting that Pickens was on notice and cutable.

On the other hand, these guys are pretty similar (talented WRs who will be held back by their offenses) and I already have a lot of Falcons, so it probably makes sense to decline the trade and keep up my diversity.

I haven't played in several years but, fwiw, I believe your "other hand" logic is sound.

London might have a game here or there but I don't see a path for him to become a major factor. (Hell, his coach just called out fantasy players for being concerned after he played week one without a single reception)

You'd probably be better off using that slot for streaming than to take a flyer on London

[albionmoonlight]

Here is his roster if we are thinking of a counter offer

QB
Daniel Jones NYG

RB
Rhamondre Stevenson NE

RB
Rachaad White TB

WR
CeeDee Lamb Dal

WR
DeVonta Smith Phi

TE
Travis Kelce KC

FLEX
RB AJ Dillon GB

D/ST
Commanders D/ST

K
Younghoe Koo Atl

BENCH

Diontae Johnson Pit WR
Drake London Atl WR
Zach Charbonnet SeaRB
Kadarius Toney KC WR
Jared Goff Det QB
Isaiah Likely TE

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I haven't played in several years but, fwiw, I believe your "other hand" logic is sound.

London might have a game here or there but I don't see a path for him to become a major factor. (Hell, his coach just called out fantasy players for being concerned after he played week one without a single reception)

You'd probably be better off using that slot for streaming than to take a flyer on London

That's where I am leaning

[BishopMVP]

Yeah I think Pittsburgh will throw it a lot, Atlanta won't. WR also your shallowest position until Watson comes back, and I doubt there's any rational way you could get Lamb or Devonta from him unless you included Hurts or Bijan which I wouldn't.

[BishopMVP]

Question from my side - superflex QB league, had Rodgers go down (shit happens)... do I start Russ or Sam Howell in the Washington@ Denver matchup? Leaning Howell with the rushing upside but not sure what the feeling is coming out of those teams after Week 1.

[albionmoonlight]

I'd lean Howell.

Both guys are likely to give you the same performance. But I think that there's a 10% chance that Howell goes off and a 10% chance that Russ stinks.

Take the ascending player.

[dubb93]

I need a RB or two to step up. Current RBs:

Pacheco - Came out of week 1 RB 32 in my format. He didn't look good and the Chiefs didn't run much, but he was clearly the most used RB on the team and Mahomes is comfortable checking down to him in the passing game.

Akers - How many carries is he losing this week after stinking up the place last week? RB20 because of the TD.

Breece Hall - Looks a stud but probably will play 1/4 of the game. Could be a league winner down the stretch. RB6

Josh Kelley - The Chargers ran the ball 40 times for 233 yards in week 1. Because of that Kelley had a monster game, but he's clearly the backup here and they won't be handing the ball off 40 times every game...if ever again this season. RB9

Kenneth Gainwell - Ruled out this week due to injury. Looked to be the bell cow in Philly though. RB22. I may actually trade him as I got a guy knocking my door down wanting him and I'm not convinced he will be the guy in Philly all season.

I'm leaning Pacheco and Akers this week. Thoughts?

[albionmoonlight]

Pacheco for sure. He was the #1 RB option in an explosive offense. You gotta ride that upside, even if they aren't a running team.

Out of the rest, I'd go with Breece Hall. The Jets are going to run, run, and run some more

[albionmoonlight]

Swift get another start for me tonight.

Might be the last in a while if they don't give him the ball again.

[flere-imsaho]

Question #1: Lawrence vs. Fields vs. Jones? I'm leaning Lawrence.

Question #2: Do we think SF vs. LA Rams is going to be a shootout?

Question #3: Do we think KC vs. Jax is going to be a shootout?

[albionmoonlight]

#1: Lawrence. Fields and Jones always end up with decent numbers by the end, but it always feels like a bit of a Jenga tower with them. Lawrence in that offense seems like the safer bet who still has good upside.

#2: I think that it is hard to make any predictions about division games like that. These teams know each other so well that it could go just about any way and I wouldn't be surprised.

#3: Yes. I like that JAX offense. And Mahomes and Reid coming off a long week to prepare is one of the safer bets in football.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Swift get another start for me tonight.

Really glad I made that choice.

[flere-imsaho]

Thanks albion.

[dubb93]

Today is one of those days where I wonder why I play this game. Had Olave and the Saints defense heading into Monday while my opponent had already completely played.

I proceeded to watch Olave drop a TD, get a TD called back, Carr miss Olave on a wide-open TD, and a penalty that the announcers said was "30 yards away from the ball" call back a strip-sack-recovery.

All of that would have been fine if Carolina didn't score that garbage time TD(I will never understand prevent defense. If you are stopping them all game in your normal defense why do you change it up at the end?) Ultimately lost 114-113.

[albionmoonlight]

Damn

[molson]

I lost by 2.9 points Week 1 because the Dallas D scored 42 on Monday night.

Yahoo of course had me 99% likely to win going into that. Watching that game, and rooting for the Giants to just score ANY points, and to stop turning the ball over and getting sacked for just a few minutes even, was a vintage fantasy football experience.

[flere-imsaho]

PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/D/K.

QB seems obvious, I've going with Lawrence but my other two are D. Jones and Fields. In other weeks I might want to consider the latter two due to rushing (and Jax have been struggling) but both Chi & NYG are going up against good defenses. Hopefully this is the week that Lawrence gets back on track.

For RB I have Bijan Robinson, Brian Robinson, and Kyren Williams. I also have Jonathon Taylor in my IR spot. Bijan is a lock of course, and I think I'm going to also pick the other two, putting one into the flex spot. Both look to have decent matchups and perhaps more importantly are undisputed #1 rushers for their teams.

Before getting into my mess of WRs, for TE I have Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and Zach Ertz. I think Ertz is an easy cross-out becuase they're playing DAL. I'm inclined to go with Engram because Jax have a better offense than NE, but on the other hand if Lawrence airs it out vs. Houston while Mac Jones is checking down repeatedly against a tough Jets secondary....

OK, WRs:

Olave
Nacua
Ridley
Aiyuk
Zay Flowers

Right now I have Olave & Nacua, and as I mentioned, going RB for the flex. I can stomach not starting Aiyuk because he's a little banged up and SF have a lot of weapons. But really all four should be in good places to put up good numbers against defenses or whole teams who are just struggling. Right now I'm planning to start Olave & Nacua, but I don't feel good about it.

Advice? Thoughts & Prayers?

[albionmoonlight]

FWIW, Kendre Miller is going to be active for the first time this season. Might be worth grabbing for the end of your bench before Sunday. There's a small chance he comes out of nowhere to become a viable player.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/D/K.

OK, WRs:

Olave
Nacua
Ridley
Aiyuk
Zay Flowers

Right now I have Olave & Nacua, and as I mentioned, going RB for the flex. I can stomach not starting Aiyuk because he's a little banged up and SF have a lot of weapons. But really all four should be in good places to put up good numbers against defenses or whole teams who are just struggling. Right now I'm planning to start Olave & Nacua, but I don't feel good about it.

Advice? Thoughts & Prayers?

Probably not Aiyuk this week... I also don't see how you avoid starting Nacua in a full PPR league until Kupp gets back, but he is Questionable and a Monday night kickoff which is less than ideal. The rest of your team seems stacked, maybe go with the guys who look certain to play in Olave/Ridley/Zay?

[albionmoonlight]

Zay Flowers at CLE or George Pickens at HOU?

[flere-imsaho]

I'd say Pickens. CLE's defense is pretty brutal.

[dubb93]

I’m having the worst Fantasy luck this year. This is about to be a first for me. Going to score 150 in a 12 team league on buy weeks and lose. There is a team pacing to score 30 and I’ll beat the 3rd highest scorer in the league by 30.

[flere-imsaho]

I keep running into teams who have a player who has an absolutely monster day. This weekend's was George Kittle. I now need Jordan Love to score about 40 points tonight.

[albionmoonlight]

For flex RB: Jonathan Taylor or Emari Demarcado?

[dubb93]

If you are expecting to win or for the game to be close I’d go with Demarcado. He’s the much safer bet this week. If you need a Hail Mary I’d go with JT, it’s just going to be hard to trust a guy that played hardly any snaps last week and watched the current starter go for almost 200 yards.

[dubb93]

After 6 weeks I’m 2-4 good for 10th in my 12 team league. I’ve scored the 4th most points, been in the top 6 points 5/6 weeks, and also allowed the most points in the league. Something has to give going forward.

[dubb93]

With my season on the brink and CJ Stroud displacing Mahomes in my starting lineup I was able to flip Mahomes for Josh Jacobs. That’s basically my all in move so hoping this works out. I wasn’t winning it all without making a move. Probably still not after this either. For the record I’m up to 8th (tied for last playoff spot but comfortably winning the total points scored tie breaker.) I’m still 4th in total points but only 7 points behind 3rd and 80 behind first. I honestly probably have a better shot at taking the total points scored money than I do winning the league.