What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Lathum]

10 days out, how will things go?

[Kodos]

I’m praying that the abortion is going to drive a blue wave of women that the polls are overlooking. And people who want to save democracy.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I’m praying that the abortion is going to drive a blue wave of women that the polls are overlooking. And people who want to save democracy.

I am really hoping so also. Early voting looks good for Dems, but I just have this sense of foreboding.

I do think the polls could really be off. There is no way women under the age of 27 are accurately represented. They don't have land lines and aren't answering for unknows numbers on the cells. The key is are these women motivated?

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am really hoping so also. Early voting looks good for Dems, but I just have this sense of foreboding.

I do think the polls could really be off. There is no way women under the age of 27 are accurately represented. They don't have land lines and aren't answering for unknows numbers on the cells. The key is are these women motivated?

Do you think they respond to unsolicited texts as polls. I get at least one per day.

[GrantDawg]

I was optimistic at one point, but the closer it gets the more I believe it will be a Red Wave. Even the worst candidates like Oz and Walker get elected. Our future as a country is pretty grim.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I was optimistic at one point, but the closer it gets the more I believe it will be a Red Wave. Even the worst candidates like Oz and Walker get elected. Our future as a country is pretty grim.

I'll just go with what I posted in one of the other threads:

Remember, for like a few minutes, when we could pretend that overturning Roe v Wade might lead to a tiny, close victory in one midterm that might be tenuously be held until the next Presidential election, assuming the Supreme Court somehow doesn't agree with the independent state legislature theory by the narrowest of margins? We almost could pretend that trading reproductive rights might give us 3 more years of normalcy until the next would be despot comes along and breaks our democracy for at least a generation.

SI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by henry296

Do you think they respond to unsolicited texts as polls. I get at least one per day.

Not a chance.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I’m praying that the abortion is going to drive a blue wave of women that the polls are overlooking. And people who want to save democracy.

This. But I'm an eternal optimist, and my hopes and dreams are often dashed by reality.

Originally Posted by henry296

Do you think they respond to unsolicited texts as polls. I get at least one per day.

All the political texts I receive get sent to my spam folder by default...even Beto's.

[larrymcg421]

In order of likelihood...

1) Split - Dems keep S, GOP takes H
2) Red Wave - GOP takes both.
3) Blue Wave - Dems take both.
4) Split - GOP takes S, Dems keep H

[Lathum]

Mark Halperen was on the radio today (yes I know his history) saying it is more likely republicans pick up 4 senate seats then the dems maintaining 50/50. I find that hard to believe.

[flere-imsaho]

Just came back from early voting in the deep blue Chicago suburbs (roughly 2:00 PM, so not lunchtime) and it's easily the busiest I've seen it for early voting. Like, by an order of magnitude.

Won't change anything locally, because all of the races were really contested in the Democratic primaries, but I guess that makes it more noteworthy?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mark Halperen was on the radio today (yes I know his history) saying it is more likely republicans pick up 4 senate seats then the dems maintaining 50/50. I find that hard to believe.

+4 is a no-miss wave - everything close cuts their way. Beyond that requires Patty Murray or Michael Bennet, and I think even the least realistic on the red side aren't really going there. Though, these days, if you want to get on television, you have to be out there.

0 or even -1 isn't that hard to fathom. And even -2 would only require someone who has very little middle-road cred, like J.D. Vance or Ron Johnson, falling short. My sense, being in Ohio, is that Vance is pretty safe. But not like Patty Murray safe.

I think I'll end up at +1 or +2 for the Republicans, but we know Georgia's going to Georgia and decide it in December. At which point, who knows, Trump could throw another fit and piss Georgia off all over again. I see 0 as a lot more likely than +4.

Congress, though. That's not going to be very close.

[CrimsonFox]

please stop depressing me lathum

[Izulde]

Dems barely keep Senate, Republicans take House easily is my prediction.

[Brian Swartz]

I agree with Izulde.

[NobodyHere]

I'll probably vote for him, but I still think Tim Ryan needs a new campaign team. His TV ads are awful.

[joe the wanderer]

we're doomed

[Lathum]

Tomorrow is going to be a disaster. I’m hearing pollsters say Lee Zeldin is going to win NY ffs.

[Edward64]

I'll be glad to never see another Warnock and Walker ad ever again.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'll be glad to never see another Warnock and Walker ad ever again.

It could go to runoff.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

It could go to runoff.

Good point.

I don't know about regular cable, but it's crazy on YT. And it's the same ads over and over. Wonder how much something like that costs.

[Lathum]

If the senate comes down to a run off between Walker and Warnock the amount of money spent will be astronomical.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Tomorrow is going to be a disaster. I’m hearing pollsters say Lee Zeldin is going to win NY ffs.

It surprised pollsters - there have been very few in the state, and only one (Trafalgar) has shown a Zeldin lead, and that was less than 1%. Still, 538 has Hochul at 97% and PredictIt is pricing Hochul shares at 80 cents. It might be hard to call it right off the bat tomorrow, but I'd be surprised if it ended up being all that close.

It looks like a typical mid-term for a president in recession.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm actually leaning more towards it not being as bad for Democrats as people are expecting. Still Republican gains but not as much as the doom and gloom approach. I think the only reason they're going to get much of anything is inflation. There's too much else that has gone against them, and Biden's approval is 4-5 points higher than it was in July.

I could be completely wrong, but the info I've seen - caveat about polling being our best indicator but not as reliable as it once was - doesn't show a massive red wave.

[Brian Swartz]

As an example, proposal 3 in Michigan aims to undo Dobbs in the state and go beyond that, enshrining in the state constitution a right to abortion. The latest poll I know of is 55-41 in favor though the gap is closing, and it's going to drive turnout here IMO based on the fact that roughly 80% of the political activity I see is mocking the anti-proposal 3 crowd. It's a much bigger issue than the governor's race, at least where I live.

Not that there will be traction about this kind of thing everywhere in the country, I know there won't be. And other than '16, Michigan being blue doesn't surprise anyone. But there's still a lot of people around here who don't like Gov. Whitmer because of the covid response, the whole 'this mask is as useless as my governor' stuff, etc. They are all getting drowned out right now.

[Brian Swartz]

Looks like 538 is trending the other way heading into the election though. You're not often going to be right betting against them Final forecast is 84% chance of republicans taking the house, 59% taking the Senate, but governorships not really moving the needle with the same overall split each way, a couple flipping in each direction.

Of course the worst part of it I think is how many Big Lie proponents are favored to win.

[CrimsonFox]

I will be voted Queen of the Universe!

[Ksyrup]

The reality is, people are desensitized to the extreme/violent rhetoric (they've been living it on social media, so its extension to politics is, sadly, nothing shocking) and apparently don't believe anything will really happen to our country despite evidence something serious is brewing. So, those who aren't Trump/GOP fanboys are treating this like a normal election and voting with their pocketbooks. Issues like abortion don't move the needle because most people don't think they'll ever be affected by it, or are ambivalent, or actually agree even if it's not a top issue for them.

It's infuriating to see seemingly normal people interviewed on the news and discussing candidates either on their merits or just laundry listing "fate of democracy" as one of the issues along with "grocery bill." I get it, I'm fortunately in a situation where I can absorb the extra costs, but I get the feeling these people would flip if they really thought their lives would change for the worse with an authoritarian in charge. But it seems like the prevailing thought is, "This is America, we may have our issues but we're not like other countries and that kind of stuff doesn't happen here." I've even talked to someone who used J6 as proof that we will never face a situation in which the worst-case scenario comes true.

[JPhillips]

It's crazy to me how Dems have pretty much just given up on FL.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The reality is, people are desensitized to the extreme/violent rhetoric (they've been living it on social media, so its extension to politics is, sadly, nothing shocking) and apparently don't believe anything will really happen to our country despite evidence something serious is brewing. So, those who aren't Trump/GOP fanboys are treating this like a normal election and voting with their pocketbooks. Issues like abortion don't move the needle because most people don't think they'll ever be affected by it, or are ambivalent, or actually agree even if it's not a top issue for them.

It's infuriating to see seemingly normal people interviewed on the news and discussing candidates either on their merits or just laundry listing "fate of democracy" as one of the issues along with "grocery bill." I get it, I'm fortunately in a situation where I can absorb the extra costs, but I get the feeling these people would flip if they really thought their lives would change for the worse with an authoritarian in charge. But it seems like the prevailing thought is, "This is America, we may have our issues but we're not like other countries and that kind of stuff doesn't happen here." I've even talked to someone who used J6 as proof that we will never face a situation in which the worst-case scenario comes true.

It's also a little bit of a hard sell to tell people "they're setting up to steal 2024" - there's like a lack of urgency there. Joe Biden is President - they can't do anything about that so "we can deal with that in 2024 if it materializes". Like it's something minor to check off the grocery list. Or something that you can stop once we're already so many steps down the road. I mean, there's a decent case that the die was already cast in 2016 Trump's Supreme Court choices and Moore vs Harper - and there's nothing to stop it now.

Don't worry, if it does happen, a ton of people will just go along with it with justifications like "this was legally done", not because it was legal but because people in power did it and they seem immune from real consequences and little more than abstract criticism. And as they watch their lives get worse in ways ranging from rights to economy, it's ok because those other people, the ones who were supposed to get hurt, they got hurt more.

SI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Of course the worst part of it I think is how many Big Lie proponents are favored to win.

This. People like Kari Lake will put in SOS who will subvert the will of the electorate. I believe it was the guy in Wisconsin who said if he wins republicans will never lose another election there again.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's also a little bit of a hard sell to tell people "they're setting up to steal 2024" - there's like a lack of urgency there. Joe Biden is President - they can't do anything about that so "we can deal with that in 2024 if it materializes". Like it's something minor to check off the grocery list. Or something that you can stop once we're already so many steps down the road. I mean, there's a decent case that the die was already cast in 2016 Trump's Supreme Court choices and Moore vs Harper - and there's nothing to stop it now.

Don't worry, if it does happen, a ton of people will just go along with it with justifications like "this was legally done", not because it was legal but because people in power did it and they seem immune from real consequences and little more than abstract criticism. And as they watch their lives get worse in ways ranging from rights to economy, it's ok because those other people, the ones who were supposed to get hurt, they got hurt more.

SI

Well, if they change enough laws with the power they have, a lot of this will become legal by the time the complete takeover happens.

[Ksyrup]

See, it's all about getting a good laugh - that takes the edge off the extremism. Yes, you've got your diehard, militia types ready to do the dirty work when the time comes. But in the suburbs and retirement villages, it's much easier to digest "reclaiming the country by whatever means necessary" when it's couched in laughs and entertainment.

��Uhhh�� pic.twitter.com/QslPhmvqVZ

— Kaylan_TX�� (@Kaylan_TX) November 8, 2022

[JPhillips]

The GOP is a threat to democracy and eventually, they are going to win an election. There's no way to stop it other than the GOP deciding they aren't going to be authoritarian and that seems very unlikely.

[Ksyrup]

And BTW, that signpost was supposedly in a CT yard.

[Ksyrup]

Now seeing Democrat Latino strategists acknowledge that 37% is the new Hispanic GOP baseline.

Most have spent months saying it isn’t true and now saying it is on Election Day.

If they’re right it’s going to be a bad night for Democrats

— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) November 8, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Yet another "here's the response when the attacks come tonight or tomorrow morning" about an Oz victory being "stolen":

‘I want to be very clear’ that when people target Philly later tonight for being slow to count ballots, it’s because Rs sued to force a procedure no other PA county follows, says the *GOP* member of the Phillly voting board. https://t.co/ibgAVIElbp

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) November 8, 2022

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This. People like Kari Lake will put in SOS who will subvert the will of the electorate. I believe it was the guy in Wisconsin who said if he wins republicans will never lose another election there again.

Tim Michaels said that yes. It's one of the clips most commonly played in the YouTube attack ads, along with the lawsuits from women who worked at his company

[Ksyrup]

Florida numbers are looking brutal, Trump's vote against DeSantis isn't going to help!

Seriously, I don't know what the numbers typically look like, but last I saw, in DADE COUNTY, R's were over 50% registered having voted and Dems at 37%.

[Lathum]

the predictit markets have things looking very, very, bad for the dems.

[Solecismic]

A lot of the PredictIt movement today reverses very recent changes. It's still, after all, a market that has to respond to betting. I don't think exit polling has been released anywhere.

I can't handle five minutes of "news" coverage on either side. They have decided, if the "other side" wins, it means an end to democracy and civil war and all varieties of Armageddon.

We are stronger than that. Just don't listen to those people. They get ratings by scaring us, pissing us off. If you feel we need a national law supporting abortion rights, get out there and vote for legislators who support abortion rights. It should have happened decades ago, but it never did.

You know what a bad day for democracy was? The day John Kennedy was killed. And democracy survived just fine.

Yes, it's going to be a bad day for Democrats. That's normal for midterms in a poor economy. It has happened before and it will happen again. Take the L and spend the next two years working on the economy. Stop gaslighting that high inflation isn't terrible or doesn't exist - we've been told all our lives we need to plan for retirement and inflation spoils those plans.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm one of those people. Not because the other side winning is bad for democracy. In a vacuum, it's not. When the other side is on record as being against democracy, as not being willing to accept the outcome of elections, as promoting the Big Lie - not just as a party in certain elements, but hundreds of specific state-level candidates expected to win today - then the other side winning is a defeat for democracy. Effectively what is happening then is people willingly vote to not have their vote count in the future.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If you feel we need a national law supporting abortion rights, get out there and vote for legislators who support abortion rights. It should have happened decades ago, but it never did.

100% this though. These issues can absolutely be resolved by enough people caring about them, which includes accepting imperfect candidates on other issues to get them done.

I just voted myself. Anecdotally, fewer people there than usual. Could just be the time I went, I'm not consistent with that. One person at a 'Dixon for Governor' table outside which I haven't seen at this location before. They were completely behaving themselves though, not approaching prospective voters, staying the requisite distance from the building, etc. I'm in an area where Trump hats are fairly common, so I expect this precinct will definitely go heavy to Dixon.

[Ksyrup]

When the best hope we have for just normal "gridlock" if the GOP takes Congress is people like McConnell and McCarthy tamping down on the performative BS, I don't have much hope. I think it's a near certainty they impeach one or more Biden administration officials, including Biden, make Fauci spend most of his retirement attending Covid hearings, getting referred for criminal charges, etc., and establishing a slew of investigative committees that will undo most of the factual narratives that have been established on J6, Covid, antifa, etc.

And then there will be your "both sides" argument for 2024 - with "EVIDENCE!"

[Brian Swartz]

They can impeach all they want but won't have the votes to convict. The January 6th hearings showed how much Congress has the power to shift public opinion in that way; they had no impact whatsoever. People have other sources now. Congress can't compete with social media.

I'm more concerned with 2024 and afterwards. Even if the doom-and-gloom 'slow moving coup' scenario doesn't pan out, you can't elect this many conspiracy theorists attacking the foundation of transferring power and not have ugly consequences at some point.

[Ksyrup]

Oh I know, but it's just the point that it'll essentially be "offsetting impeachments," with the goal of making Trump's impeachments totally about partisan politics and lessening any possible seriousness attached to them. "See, we can impeach just as easily as you can - for no reason, just like you did!"

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Florida numbers are looking brutal, Trump's vote against DeSantis isn't going to help!

Seriously, I don't know what the numbers typically look like, but last I saw, in DADE COUNTY, R's were over 50% registered having voted and Dems at 37%.

Does that include early voting/absentee? (is that even much of a thing in Florida?).

[Ksyrup]

According to some information in the responses to the tweet I was reviewing, yes it does.

[PilotMan]

Remember, the presidential election was stolen, but all the votes for the House were 100% accurate, and nobody questioned them. How do you do such a good job of stealing the presidency, and figure out how to avoid winning in other races that could have been easy to fix while you were doing that one?

[Solecismic]

If the Republicans want to waste their time impeaching Biden, it's a missed opportunity to reach out to the people who didn't vote for them in 2020, but are very unhappy about the economy.

An impeachment hearing that has 0% chance of resulting in removal isn't going to do a damned thing about inflation.

I figured I'd get the "both sides" false equivalency response to what I posted. I don't know what to say other than if you depend on partisan news sources or somehow see any nationally-known source as not heavily partisan, you're missing a lot of what goes on out there and attaching far more significance than you should to specific issues.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If the Republicans want to waste their time impeaching Biden, it's a missed opportunity to reach out to the people who didn't vote for them in 2020, but are very unhappy about the economy.

An impeachment hearing that has 0% chance of resulting in removal isn't going to do a damned thing about inflation.

I figured I'd get the "both sides" false equivalency response to what I posted. I don't know what to say other than if you depend on partisan news sources or somehow see any nationally-known source as not heavily partisan, you're missing a lot of what goes on out there and attaching far more significance than you should to specific issues.

They don't need to reach voters who did not vote for them in 2020. Most of them believe they don't exist because "election fraud" (or at least that is what they want their voters to believe). They care about suppressing the other side just enough and giving their base just enough red meat to turnout. Fixing inflation and the stock market and immigration is hard and fairly out of their control. Impeaching the dems and fighting non-existent fraud is easy and will get the same results.