Jay Leno to stay with NBC; New 10 PM show

[Ksyrup]

The product placement ads on The Biggest Loser are so awful. They essentially force non-actors to act. But I'm so anti-commercial, I even FF through the ones they've embedded into the show.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The funny part will be when the industry shifts to a pay-as-you-watch model & the only shows that are profitable (and therefore the only ones produced) are reality shows.

Some folks will absolutely lose their freakin minds, it'll be a hoot to watch.
Hmm, I think I just came up with an idea for a new reality show ...

Originally Posted by molson

We'll always have Law & Order reruns

Ding! We have a winner If we go to pay-as-you-watch model, the best-selling shows will be old shows, reruns and spinoffs. Maybe a show will breakout if it's a well known actor or creator. But fresh shows from new talent? No way.

I guess the boldest experiment we have so far might be the Caprica DVD release from Sci-Fi. There have been shows with episodes on DVD released as they aired but this is the highest profile release-before-airing I know about. Sales were pretty good it looks like. But again, this is a show with a built-in audience, and I'm not sure the sales would have justified the production and marketing if there weren't a series to follow.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The product placement ads on The Biggest Loser are so awful. They essentially force non-actors to act. But I'm so anti-commercial, I even FF through the ones they've embedded into the show.

The transition isn't going to be smooth, but I guess I don't understand why commercials have to be boring and annoying and awful, as they have throughout history (with a few exceptions).

Isn't there a way to overcome that?

Let's say I'm Coke, and I want to advertise on TV. Can't I hire professional actors and writers and put together 30 minutes or an hour that's actually entertaining, and something people want to see? Distribute it freely to the world on the internet. Cut out the TV networks (or start your own cable channel).

I know there's a stigma against "advertising", but I think if the quality was good, people could get over it (people have dealt with mindless commercials for 60 years)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

But it seems like reality shows have been penetrated more quickly than scripted shows, for some reason.

Because it's easier to do somewhat naturally and because there really aren't any writers sitting around bitching about having to work it in.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by molson

The transition isn't going to be smooth, but I guess I don't understand why commercials have to be boring and annoying and awful, as they have throughout history (with a few exceptions).

Isn't there a way to overcome that?

Let's say I'm Coke, and I want to advertise on TV. Can't I hire professional actors and writers and put together 30 minutes or an hour that's actually entertaining, and something people want to see? Distribute it freely to the world on the internet. Cut out the TV networks (or start your own cable channel).

I don't see how. If Coke wanted to do something like that solely for itself, it would need to create a show that is not about Coke but entertaining on its own merit, and then they'd have to somehow work Coke references or product placements all over it. But I have no idea how you'd price something like that to make it work. Would it be better for Coke to just "hire out" The Office, say, and run a soccer-like, continuous small Coke ad in one corner the whole show, or would they need people parading around with Cokes in their hands and talking about how great Coke is for it to really work (in whatever way marketers figure that kind of stuff out)? I don't know/understand enough about marketing to know what would make sense.

Personally, if I knew what I'd be watching was basically an infomercial with real actors trying to entertain me but principally selling a product, I'd pass.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't see how. If Coke wanted to do something like that solely for itself, it would need to create a show that is not about Coke but entertaining on its own merit, and then they'd have to somehow work Coke references or product placements all over it. But I have no idea how you'd price something like that to make it work. Would it be better for Coke to just "hire out" The Office, say, and run a soccer-like, continuous small Coke ad in one corner the whole show, or would they need people parading around with Cokes in their hands and talking about how great Coke is for it to really work (in whatever way marketers figure that kind of stuff out)? I don't know/understand enough about marketing to know what would make sense.

Personally, if I knew what I'd be watching was basically an infomercial with real actors trying to entertain me but principally selling a product, I'd pass.

It'd definitely be tricky. It probably wouldn't work initially with just a generic product like "Coke" that you'd have to force into everything. It'd have to be more subtle. The product would have to be an accepted "character" on the show. Like a Vegas casino or something, where the show takes place in the casino. Or a "Cheers" type show that takes place in an actual bar chain.

I'm not exactly convincing myself while trying to explain it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

Can't I hire professional actors and writers and put together 30 minutes or an hour that's actually entertaining, and something people want to see?

You mean like a reality show? Because that's what the largest plurality wants to see.

What you're describing has been tried lightly by a few folks, mostly as viral marketing with short features. The Taster's Choice coffee couple was really the first one I can think of.

Distribute it freely to the world on the internet.

And reach too small of an audience to be worth the cost, at least for the vast majority of products. The cost of doing long form would be off the charts, hell, the cost of a single mediocre :30 TV spot is already ridiculous. Even worse from that standpoint is that you get one crack at the audience with long form, traditional :30 spots have a significant advantage there.

(or start your own cable channel).

Gonna be a tad cost prohibitive there. And by a tad I mean, no chance in hell.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

But, again, how would they introduce new shows to make people even know if they want to buy it?

I was agreeing with you. My point was that without networks, you have to come up with a new delivery model and, as we've seen, that's slow. I'll go out on a really short limb here and say that in the next 5 years, someone will find some good way to hype up a show online which will be a hit and a lot of people will point to the great online ad campaign that got it done. The success will be based on it being a new, revolutionary way of delivering the message but what will be missed is that it also has a good to great show underneath and all you had to do was get enough hype to point people in the direction of the show and tell friends.

Then, we'll start seeing article after article about how this can be a great new delivery method and how other shows should have thought of it sooner and how it's going to revolutionize tv. People will go on and on about how it's a paradigm shift and we'll even get some of the pirate people talking about how great it is and how old companies should copy this model and it's the greatest thing since sliced bread. And, in the end, all it will be is one good campaign that can't be duplicated because that's a lot of how advertising works.

SI

[chadritt]

Thats pretty much what I think already happened with Joss Whedon and Dr. Horrible. There are smaller "success stories" as far as web based series go but i dont think were close to the web being a viable economic model for television.

[kcchief19]

JIMGA, have you seen what your NBC affiliate is charging for Leno? I met with a media buyer friend of mine and she said the affiliates she's talked to are pissed as hell. They are charging late night rates for Leno, which is much less than they charge for prime time. The locals she's talked to are taking a bath on essentially the loss of five hours of prime time and can't sell his show anyway.

She said she doesn't think there's anyway the locals can survive for long with the format. She agrees with me that with the way Conan's ratings are sliding, it's when and not if that NBC slides Leno back into 11:30 and boots Conan somewhere.

[larnott]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

She said she doesn't think there's anyway the locals can survive for long with the format. She agrees with me that with the way Conan's ratings are sliding, it's when and not if that NBC slides Leno back into 11:30 and boots Conan somewhere.

Can't wait for this to happen. It will be hilarious- funnier than five dozen episodes of Conan's show combined.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

JIMGA, have you seen what your NBC affiliate is charging for Leno? I met with a media buyer friend of mine and she said the affiliates she's talked to are pissed as hell. They are charging late night rates for Leno, which is much less than they charge for prime time. The locals she's talked to are taking a bath on essentially the loss of five hours of prime time and can't sell his show anyway.

She said she doesn't think there's anyway the locals can survive for long with the format. She agrees with me that with the way Conan's ratings are sliding, it's when and not if that NBC slides Leno back into 11:30 and boots Conan somewhere.

Sonovabi ...

I was about finished with a very long commentary on this and somehow managed to close my browser instead of switching windows. Damned if I can recreate the whole thing when I've got to get up in about 3 1/2 hours, so I'll summarize.

I was kind of shocked at first blush but even as I typed what she's saying started to make sense. If they're projecting the numbers somewhere in the 50%-60% range of average prime then the old Leno rates probably are about right in a lot of markets. I don't think it's so much that they're asking "late night rates" as it is that they're expecting "late nightish numbers" and in order to be competitive on a CPP basis then that's where the rates are going to land. That's got to be put in perspective though since some of their primetime lineup really isn't beating what Leno used to do in some markets anymore either.

Truth be told, I have to think there's a number of local affiliates might be losing more money with what have to been plummeting rates for Tonight than they'll lose on the difference between Leno & Generic 10p Programs 1 thru 5.

I always say Atlanta is a funny market for ratings & doesn't reflect national averages but your question caused me to go back & look more closely at yesterday's overnights just to see what they looked like. When I was done, I don't think I'd ever been more shocked by anything in my career.

Tuesday night's Conan in Atlanta flatlined with A25-54, as in reported ratings as << which equals 0.0 (in reality it just means 0.04 or lower). That means it lost to not only Nightline and Letterman but also to syndicated reruns of Malcolm In the Middle, Bernie Mac, Half & Half, and Seinfeld. Hell, Kimmel got a 0.4 afterwards and their 3am replay of the 11p newscast got a 0.3
Even A18-34 in Atlanta Conan was no better than 3rd behind Nightline & Bernie Mac, and after the first 15 minutes slipped into a tie for 5th with Seinfeld and behind Letterman.

Now fair is fair, I looked back over some random days & it's not like that every night but for a franchise of such stature it should never be like that. They've turned $1000ish spots into no better than $250 spots and are en route to realistic pricing locally of about $75 if they can sell them at all. As far as Atlanta goes, Conan has been like the TV equivalent of, I dunno, Waterworld maybe. He got better numbers than that in his old timeslot for crying out loud. But I suppose I digress.

To the original question, I think what's a more realistic question is not whether NBC affiliates can survive with Leno at 10p but rather whether they'll be any better off overall with whatever NBC would put in the timeslot.
Sure, Atlanta is weird sometimes but it's not entirely unique either, other markets do perform similarly, and the network already gets lower primetime ratings for several hours a week than what Leno was getting at 1135p or even what Conan gets some nights now (for example, Conan's was better A18-49 on Monday than what they got from Great Road Trip)

edit to add: I really do believe we're headed back to the days of "The Big Three" broadcast networks with NBC destined to become fully considered a second tier network like CW & MyNetwork. And I'm pretty sure we're not all that far from seeing the distinction of "major" networks no longer meaning broadcast but rather a near complete merging of broadcast & cable ratings with the definition being more like "first, second, and third tier" and ABC, Fox, and CBS being most closely followed by USA & TNT competing for the top tier.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't see how. If Coke wanted to do something like that solely for itself, it would need to create a show that is not about Coke but entertaining on its own merit, and then they'd have to somehow work Coke references or product placements all over it. But I have no idea how you'd price something like that to make it work. Would it be better for Coke to just "hire out" The Office, say, and run a soccer-like, continuous small Coke ad in one corner the whole show, or would they need people parading around with Cokes in their hands and talking about how great Coke is for it to really work (in whatever way marketers figure that kind of stuff out)? I don't know/understand enough about marketing to know what would make sense.

Personally, if I knew what I'd be watching was basically an infomercial with real actors trying to entertain me but principally selling a product, I'd pass.

They are dipping in the water with the Philanthropist and Bing

[larrymcg421]

Where could NBC move Conan? I'm sure his contract has guarantees that make it difficult.

I remember back during the Jay/Dave feud, people forget that NBC did make an offer to Dave to take over for Jay as host of the Tonight Show. The problem was Jay still had 18 months left on his original contract, so they told Dave he had to wait out the 18 months before he could take over. Naturally he turned it down and went with the CBS offer instead. Will NBC be willing to eat Conan's contract this time around?

And maybe the bigger question is if Leno returns to 11:30 job, does he automatically get all of his viewers back?
competitor to

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

And maybe the bigger question is if Leno returns to 11:30 job, does he automatically get all of his viewers back?

My guess would be nearly all of them, losing only what he would have lost to Nightline at times anyway, probably off 10% or so at most.

As for the contract, it doesn't seem anybody other than him & the network (and Lord knows how many lawyers) know for sure. Logically, there's probably a buy out clause somewhere in the vicinity of the reported $40 million penalty clause that would have been triggered if they didn't install him as host this year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

One other thing to consider here is that the winners in this besides Letterman & Nightline are on cable. Again, just taking a quick look at some Atlanta only overnight numbers from a recent night, more A18-49 were watching:
Crime 360 on A&E
Real Housewives(R) and Watch What Happens on Bravo
Colbert Report on Comedy Central
E! News on E!
Sportscenter on ESPN (after the Cardinals/Rams pre-season game)
Black Hawk Down on FX
The O'Reilly Factor on FXNC
My First Place on HGTV
Police Women on TLC
CSI:NY on TNT

That's 10 shows that had more viewers in a top 10 market than did Conan (and about half of those also beat Letterman on the same night). Point being, of course, is that the steady erosion of broadcast numbers isn't just a prime time thing, it's an all dayparts thing & neither Leno nor Conan are immune to it.

Sometimes it feels as though we're going to end up with 20 shows all putting up a 0.2 rating and another 30 shows putting up a 0.1

[Logan]

I'm not pretending to know much about the corporate level of networks, but I know NBC has been hurting for awhile already...is the money they are losing now (compared to when Leno was hosting) really substantial enough where whoever made these calls in the first place would be able to keep their jobs if they switched Leno back? How could that amount of egg on their faces not cost them their jobs anyway?

Basically I'm wondering what move looks worse...switching back, or just riding it out and hoping it improves.

[Maple Leafs]

Have there been any good articles anywhere on why Conan is struggling?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm not pretending to know much about the corporate level of networks, but I know NBC has been hurting for awhile already...is the money they are losing now (compared to when Leno was hosting) really substantial enough where whoever made these calls in the first place would be able to keep their jobs if they switched Leno back? How could that amount of egg on their faces not cost them their jobs anyway?

Basically I'm wondering what move looks worse...switching back, or just riding it out and hoping it improves.

If they switch back, the biggest loss to swallow is the up to $40 million dollars the collective group of idiots promised Conan 5 years ago.

As for exits, that would be increasingly par for the course. Check out the tenures:

-- Ben Silverman (producer of The Office and Ugly Betty just left after two years as co-head of NBC Entertainment. He's going to work for Barry Diller on producing & distributing content across mobile platforms.

-- Kevin Reilly was terminated in 2007 after three years & was key in keeping Office on the air in the low rated early going. He's now head of entertainment at Fox, having previously been the head of programming at FX ([i]FX, Nip/Tuck, and Rescue Me were all his projects). Previously he had another stint heading up primetime at NBC (ER, Law & Order) before leaving to work with an independent producer of shows including Just Shoot Me, News Radio and the pilot for The Sopranos

-- Scott Sassa, who was head of Turner Television in the mid-90's, ran things for 3 years in between Reilly stints. He's now President of Hearst Entertainment & Syndication (includes oversight of all their interests in ESPN, Lifetime, A&E, and all TV stations, newspapers, and merchdising)

-- Don Ohlmeyer was in charge of entertainment from '93 to '99 when he retired, and during that time NBC was the only profitable network.

-- Warren Littlefield ran things for about a decade after taking over from Fred Silverman which takes us all the way back into the late 70's/early 80's.

So over the course of about 30 years, the network has gone from people in charge for 10 years to 6 to 3 to 2. The next guy's name plate will probably be handwritten on the back of a takeout menu.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Have there been any good articles anywhere on why Conan is struggling?

Good ones? Eh, none jump out to me.

The general consensus is that it's a combination of him not being very funny (or alternately not being perceived as funny by the audience willing to watch network TV at 1135pm EST) and maybe being the wrong guy for the existing audience giving them a chance to sample other programs they're finding strong enough to hold them once they flip the channel.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Have there been any good articles anywhere on why Conan is struggling?

Why David Letterman is better :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Paige Wiser

Not sure I'd say it's a "good" article but I think it's a good summation of why Conan vs. Letterman is a bad matchup. But I think it misses the point that Letterman isn't gaining ground as much as Conan is simply losing the existing audience. Most of them aren't going to Letterman. Not many are going to Nightline either. Sounds like they are spreading out or going to bed.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

To the original question, I think what's a more realistic question is not whether NBC affiliates can survive with Leno at 10p but rather whether they'll be any better off overall with whatever NBC would put in the timeslot.

I just pulled out a random invoice from a past campaign. We were paying $275 for a :30 in Leno and paying $1,250 in Medium. My buyer said the affiliate here was selling Leno for the same $275 or less to fill the space. Letterman is $225. I don't see how there is anyway they can make up the lost revenue if they are charging 1/6 for Leno what they were charging for Medium.

Could NBC do better with something else at 9pm? It'll depend on the ratings. I think most of us are basing our numbers on the idea that Leno will draw 4-5 million a night with his regular demo skew. That's a pretty low number for primetime.

I know I beat this dead horse quite a bit but I think NBC owns shows that if you put them on at 10pm prime time they would outperform Leno: Monk, Psych, Burn Notice and In Plain Sight. I think they would draw bigger audiences and better demos than Leno. Universal has the prime opportunity to launch shows on cable with cheap budgets and "graduate" to prime time. The traditional model of network TV is akin to MLB teams taking their No. 1 high school draft picks and plugging them into the starting lineup the next day. Burn Notice breaks out, you move it to NBC, great -- now you have a slot on USA to groom another show.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

edit to add: I really do believe we're headed back to the days of "The Big Three" broadcast networks with NBC destined to become fully considered a second tier network like CW & MyNetwork. And I'm pretty sure we're not all that far from seeing the distinction of "major" networks no longer meaning broadcast but rather a near complete merging of broadcast & cable ratings with the definition being more like "first, second, and third tier" and ABC, Fox, and CBS being most closely followed by USA & TNT competing for the top tier.

I agree with your line of thinking. Personally I have a hard time squeezing Fox into the Big Three without a full prime-time schedule but I think NBC is on the brink of disaster. I think there will be plenty of nights Leno finishes behind USA, TNT and maybe even Bravo and other cable nets. I'm seeing CBS, ABC and Fox as the only places that can draw 10+ million viewers regularly. NBC is dangerously close to slipping into a much lower tier.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I just pulled out a random invoice from a past campaign. We were paying $275 for a :30 in Leno and paying $1,250 in Medium. My buyer said the affiliate here was selling Leno for the same $275 or less to fill the space.

Yeah, the gap between Leno & prime wasn't that big in several of my markets, including Atlanta. Plus I've run into occasions where I could buy prime 24 hours or less before whereas Leno would be sold out weeks in advance (and he wasn't even overly strong in Atlanta, Nightline was winning a few nights & running second occasionaly even before their makeover). Bottom line is probably that there was enough demand to justify overcharging for mediocre prime but now, I don't get that sense of it.

The question I'd have is what is that affiliate getting for some of the drizzling crap in prime right now? Last night NBC won with a 1.8 average overnight national (1.6 for Talent Recap, 2.0 for Talent, 1.4 for an L&O repeat).

Just two years ago the same night NBC was a distant second with a 2.2 average (1.9 Outrageous Moments, 2.5 for Talent, 2.2 for Dateline). That's a 20% drop in just two years.

As for the cable shows, I think NBC is gunshy after the poor performances of the repurposed shows early last year. The experiment that brought Monk and Psych to the network a couple of months after they premiered on USA flopped to 4th and even 5th place finishes around the 1.1 area and the ratings got lower each successive week. I can't really blame them for not wanting to risk turning a cable success into a network failure and I honestly don't believe there's a single show on USA that would ultimately do as well on NBC as they're doing on cable. The shows lose pretty much all of their cool/hip/style points with the switch, I don't see any of them working (maybe Plain Sight but even that's a weak maybe IMO) with the typical network audience.

[Alan T]

For whatever it is worth, I watched L&O SVU repeat last night. I haven't once watched Jay Leno at 10pm (if he has started yet at that time slot that is, I have no idea!)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Haven't seen the national overnights yet but I did get my Atlanta numbers a little while ago (apparently some delays in delivery this morning, nothing out of the ordinary though).

Remembering that Atlanta results are often different than the rest of the country, Leno did quarter-hours of 4.3/5.9/5.3/5.6 with A18-49, with shares ranging from 10 to 15. Households were much higher, 11.3/13.8/11.3/11.3, with a 20 share in the 1015-1030. Local news opened with a 3.3 in the first quarter hour, dipped to a 1.9 in the back half for A18-49.

Monday 2 weeks ago (since last Mon was holiday), 10pm Dateline did 1.7/2.5/2.9/3.4 with the local news following with a 2.0/1.9

Same Monday one year ago, Dateline pulled a 1.6 A18-49 with a 1.7 for the local news that followed.

If he ultimately holds half the opening night audience, I have to think this works.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The Kanye performance/questions segments were pretty bad, but I enjoyed the rest of the show. Seinfeld was very good. Car wash segment was funny.

[Maple Leafs]

Thought this article pretty much nailed it:
Jay Does Right What Conan Does Wrong (And Vice-Versa): Jim Windolf | Vanity Fair

[Karlifornia]

Didn't Conan struggle at first when he started on Late Night? He can do it again, maybe?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Thought this article pretty much nailed it:
Jay Does Right What Conan Does Wrong (And Vice-Versa): Jim Windolf | Vanity Fair

Solid linkage there. The closing of the piece really hits at Leno's strength & draws some fair comparisons IMO.

The Jay Leno Show is not designed to be great. It’s just there. It's the kind of show-like The Today Show, like the CNN stuff you watch in hotel rooms—that you have on in the background while you're paying the bills or looking at your college girlfriend's vacation pictures on Facebook. Leno is content to play the presenter in the manner of Larry King or Pat Sajak or Regis Philbin or anyone else who has managed to log countless hours on TV without being sent packing. The Jay Leno Show is prime-time TV for a time when prime-time TV doesn't mean that much.

[cuervo72]

That pretty much nails our TV attention. When my wife goes upstairs, she watches Jane Velez-Mitchell or Nancy Grace (they drive me nuts, but whatever). She can fade in and out between paying attention and doing stuff on her laptop/pda/dsi. I stay downstairs and have on a game, poker, sportscenter or whatever while I surf, play CoH, etc. We don't watch anything with a plot; nothing where you really need to pay attention, just something there in the background.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Solid linkage there. The closing of the piece really hits at Leno's strength & draws some fair comparisons IMO.

The Jay Leno Show is not designed to be great. It’s just there. It's the kind of show-like The Today Show, like the CNN stuff you watch in hotel rooms—that you have on in the background while you're paying the bills or looking at your college girlfriend's vacation pictures on Facebook. Leno is content to play the presenter in the manner of Larry King or Pat Sajak or Regis Philbin or anyone else who has managed to log countless hours on TV without being sent packing. The Jay Leno Show is prime-time TV for a time when prime-time TV doesn't mean that much.

I agree with this summation but I guess I'm in the minority when I don't see this being something redeeming or good. It's a triumph of mediocrity. It's nothing knew. Great art (in this case comedy) and commercialism have never gone hand in hand.

As an aside but in the same vein, I was home recently during the say and was watching CNN and MSNBC. Dear god, I realize there are about 20 or so cable news channels and local news across the country, but can't they find anybody who can speak correctly and make any goddamn sense? Apparently there isn't enough talent to fill 24 hours of news a day -- and considering that Larry King is still on the air, talent isn't necessary to be a star.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Haven't seen the national overnights yet but I did get my Atlanta numbers a little while ago (apparently some delays in delivery this morning, nothing out of the ordinary though).

Remembering that Atlanta results are often different than the rest of the country, Leno did quarter-hours of 4.3/5.9/5.3/5.6 with A18-49, with shares ranging from 10 to 15. Households were much higher, 11.3/13.8/11.3/11.3, with a 20 share in the 1015-1030. Local news opened with a 3.3 in the first quarter hour, dipped to a 1.9 in the back half for A18-49.

Monday 2 weeks ago (since last Mon was holiday), 10pm Dateline did 1.7/2.5/2.9/3.4 with the local news following with a 2.0/1.9

Same Monday one year ago, Dateline pulled a 1.6 A18-49 with a 1.7 for the local news that followed.

If he ultimately holds half the opening night audience, I have to think this works.

I will admit I'm stunned and amazed at Leno's numbers. I'm almost alarmed at the the numbers -- if people actually tune in to Leno's show, we're simply going to get more of it, and I can't see how this is the kind of show we need or want more of. There's a reason I'm not a programming genius -- I continually underestimate the lack of discernment among American TV viewers.

That said, I still can't imagine Leno holding those numbers. Conan has settle in to about 1/3 his debut audience, and I think 6 million a night for Leno is the ceiling. Remember, Leno was going against repeats across the board and caught a big break when the early MNF game ended just as his show was beginning.

Plus, Leno isn't going to have Jerry Seinfeld and Kanye West on every night, and he's not going to get the promotion he's had leading up to this. I was also amazed at the false advertising Leno spewed on SNF in his interview with Costas (who clearly was annoyed with Leno and the satellite delay) when he said they might have Obama on the show. And then we hear that Obama is going on Letterman next Monday ...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

considering that Larry King is still on the air, talent isn't necessary to be a star.

Oddly though, that's kind of what Larry's talent is: the ability to continue, to outlast trends, to survive as a relatively viable commodity.

Given the jobless rate & the general state of the economy, being a viable commodity ain't a bad gimmick. Beats the hell out of being the economic equivalent of The GobbeldyGooker

edit to add:

I will admit I'm stunned and amazed at Leno's numbers. I'm almost alarmed at the the numbers -- if people actually tune in to Leno's show, we're simply going to get more of it, and I can't see how this is the kind of show we need or want more of. There's a reason I'm not a programming genius -- I continually underestimate the lack of discernment among American TV viewers.

Eh, they're about where I figured they'd be for openers, and while it's not my cup of tea I'd still say it's better than a lot of the alternatives. I mean, Jay & Larry and the like are f'n geniuses compared to Real Housewives of Dubuque or Maim Yourself With Foam Garden Tools For Cash !!!.

Rule #1 (and you ought to know this): It's tough to go broke by underestimating the viewing tastes of the American public.

[Logan]

Leno really packed on the poundage.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, they're about where I figured they'd be for openers, and while it's not my cup of tea I'd still say it's better than a lot of the alternatives. I mean, Jay & Larry and the like are f'n geniuses compared to Real Housewives of Dubuque or Maim Yourself With Foam Garden Tools For Cash !!!.

You'll get no argument from me there. I'll give Leno some credit and say he's not the worst thing on TV, regardless of how I feel about him. And I'll gladly admit that I was a Leno fan in the '80s but developed a very bad taste over the way he schemed to get the Tonight Show and dumbed down his comedy over the last 15 years.

I had read some predictions of maybe 12 million and I thought that was high. I didn't think he'd outdraw his finale.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Rule #1 (and you ought to know this): It's tough to go broke by underestimating the viewing tastes of the American public.

Every time I think we've drained the last bit out of the pond, somebody digs a deeper hole.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, they're about where I figured they'd be for openers, and while it's not my cup of tea I'd still say it's better than a lot of the alternatives. I mean, Jay & Larry and the like are f'n geniuses compared to Real Housewives of Dubuque or Maim Yourself With Foam Garden Tools For Cash !!!.

Rule #1 (and you ought to know this): It's tough to go broke by underestimating the viewing tastes of the American public.

I don't know whether it's the use of the words "maim" or "for cash" or that they're foam or that it's so ridiculous that I could see stupid viewers going for it or what but this line really got me this morning.

I don't know why- NPR was doing some segment on tv a couple of weeks ago- but they talking to an exec from Bravo and at one point, they asked a question to the effect of "Are you worried the Bravo brand will be cheapened as your main franchise, the critically acclaimed Project Runway went to a competitor, leaving your flagship as the Real Housewives franchise?" As expected, the answer was pretty much "no" and if you read between the lines, it was pretty evident that the answer was "We don't care what twits tune in as long as someone does. We'd come up with a reality show called Flip the Switch where you got to watch people be put to death and bribe everyone we need to put it on the air if it got us a 4.0 share on cable!"

I have to think the advertising buys aren't nearly as good for an hour of Real Housewives as they were for Project Runway or Queer Eye due to the demographics. But he was talking about how they basically have two types of programming- "documentary dramas" (i.e. reality tv) or some such nonsense and "competition shows" (i.e. competition reality tv) and their goal is to lock in trend setting soccer moms and rich "cosmopolitan women" and homosexuals.

Actually, the demograpics talk was a little interesting as I don't know much about it but I imagine it's only surface deep.

EDIT: dug up a link, but most of the interview was pretty boring and sounded more like an NPR commercial for Bravo than anything: Bravo Exec On The Art Of Creating 'Reality' : NPR

SI

[sterlingice]

Anyways- any update on the numbers? I don't put any stock at all in the premiere or, really, any of this week, but I'm curious. I think next week is when we start to get more realistic numbers as the premiere hype settles down and Leno starts competing against real shows.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

So far I've only seen Atlanta numbers for last night, opened higher than Monday's debut, ended lower ... but it still won the time slot 18-49 here, 50% or more ahead of Big Brother in the demo for the first half hour, finally slipping behind it in the final 15 minutes in 18-49 while never catching up in 25-54 (BB was actually 3rd in the 25-54, trailing the Barbara Walters special)

Meanwhile I noticed in my email this morning that the local CBS affiliate is pushing hard on the decline and generally trying to dog Leno's performance, a sure sign that it's proving stronger than they expected & definitely hurt their numbers for BB last night.

Here's the thing though (and what all the broadcast networks know is their real problem) -- 1/3rd or less of all households watching TV in Atlanta during prime were watching any of the broadcast networks, the other 2/3rds were scattered among the 1,216,482 cable shows airing at the same time. Sure, that'll likely improve some with the new season starting but the days of having even half the viewers appear to pretty much be over. At this point the broadcast networks are fighting over a shrinking piece of the pie and I don't see that changing.

On the other point

I have to think the advertising buys aren't nearly as good for an hour of Real Housewives as they were for Project Runway or Queer Eye due to the demographics

There's not all that much difference between the demographics for the ostensibly trashier show than the ostensibly higher concept ones, plenty of spillover between them. And there's probably more demand for Housewives because it's accessible to at least a marginally wider range of viewers. And of course there's just the volume of viewers, as even the horrid Atlanta edition is already beating Runway which has shed a quarter of it's strong premiere audience & has slipped back to numbers virtually identical to what it had on Bravo.

[ThunderingHERD]

Jay Leno's ratings drop notably for second episode--The Live Feed

Jay Leno's ratings drop notably for second episode

Leno moore Everybody expects Jay Leno's new primetime comedy show to drop significantly this week following its highly rated premiere.

The question is how fast, how far.

For its second episode, "The Jay Leno Show" drew a metered-market household rating of 8.0 and 13 share -- down 34% from his Monday debut.

The percentage will likely change as more detailed Nielsen data becomes available, but right now it's slightly more pronounced than the second night of Conan O'Brien hosting "The Tonight Show" last June, which fell 30%.

Still, Leno's drop is not as dramatic a plunge as NBC executives might have feared.

Night Two also had more broadcast competition for Leno, with the NBC program facing the second hour of CBS' "Big Brother," and ABC airing a Barbara Walters special on the late Patrick Swayze.

The real heavy hitters at 10 p.m. roll out next week, when broadcasters unleash the bulk of their premieres, including CBS' top-rated dramas such as "CSI: Miami" and "The Mentalist."

The episode featured an interview with Michael Moore in the studio, along with Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz via satellite. Critics gave Leno props for his lively interviews (including asking Cruise if he's ever been to a strip club), but one opined that the second half of Leno's show was dominated by "excruciating" comedy bits.

[ISiddiqui]

The real heavy hitters at 10 p.m. roll out next week, when broadcasters unleash the bulk of their premieres, including CBS' top-rated dramas such as "CSI: Miami" and "The Mentalist."

That's going to be where it gets interesting. Right now Leno is on against nothing and the show is new.

[Kodos]

I wonder what percentage of people don't get their programming via cable or satellite at this point.

[Thomkal]

So I'm wondering how Leno is doing in the ratings now that he has the competition of the new tv season going up against him? Jon?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So I'm wondering how Leno is doing in the ratings now that he has the competition of the new tv season going up against him? Jon?

Series low 1.8 on Monday night, back up by 33% to a 2.4 last night coming off the strong lead-in of The Biggest Loser, finishing 3rd by just 0.1 behind Forgotten and further back of a strong debut for The Good Wife which opened with a 3.1 (all of those P18-49).

Story of the week thus far is the great debut for NCIS:LA, a 4.6 behind the 4.9 lead-in of the original NCIS which was a series record.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah - leno's getting slaughtered in the ratings apparently - but i think i saw an article saying how as long as he got 1.5 million viewers a night they were still not losing money on his show.

let's just hope it keeps falling. pleaseeeeeeeeee

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I wonder what percentage of people don't get their programming via cable or satellite at this point.

July 2009 figures say

62.2% wired cable
28.4% DBS (little dish)
00.3% SMA (satellite master antenna, like hotels & housing complexes)
00.0% MMDS (microwave multi distribution, one rcvr then hardwired)
00.0% Sat Dish (old large dish)
90.9% Total ADS + cable (all alternate delivery systems + cable)

I mention those last two that are zeroed out because I wouldn't have thought that the old fashioned jumbo dishes were still 0.1% as recently as February 2007 nor the MMDS was 0.1% up until July 2006.

Pretty good site, they've got quarterly national numbers going back to 1996, as well as market by market data for the most recent survey and then clickable by market to get that DMA's history.

[Pyser]

you cant base leno's success just on ratings. as has been said many times, his show is CHEAP. cheaper than cheap. insanely cheap. in this day and age, that counts for a lot (and, in case you never put 2 and 2 together, explains the proliferation of reality tv)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

yeah - leno's getting slaughtered in the ratings apparently

I definitely wouldn't call last night's numbers a slaughter by any means, right now (after a whopping two nights of fairly normal in-season competition) it looks as though it's may turn out to be lead-in dependent.

Heroes looks to be on it's last legs with a 4th place debut & Leno narrowed the gap back to 3rd on Monday. He fared much better with a stronger BL lead-in on Tuesday

edit to add: Also very worth noting here is that Leno's Monday night number this week was 33% better than what they were getting for Dateline this time last year.

[DaddyTorgo]

oh.

well that sucks then. i was hoping he was doing poorly.

[Thomkal]

thanks Jon for the info. Nothing against Leno himself, but after watching ER in that slot for NBC for 10 years, I was none too pleased for a talk show to be the replacement. So I'm not rooting for his show to be a success.

I'll be curious to see how he does tomorrow against the powerhouse shows he'll be up against.

[Fidatelo]

I think with Leno it's not really a case of who likes his show, it's a case of who dislikes everything else. I can't see myself ever saying "gotta remember to watch the Leno show tonight", but I can see flipping through the guide and thinking "good God these shows all suck tonight... guess I'll watch some Leno while I do my taxes". Seems to me he'll just be the default "nothing good is on" show every night.