Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

we backed the wrong horse.

1-final destination - 27.4m
2-inglourious basterds - 19.3m
3-halloween 2 - 16.3m

[Pyser]

ill go sandra bullock chick flick at 22m for the 4 day weekend

dont rule gamer out, though.

[Pyser]

final destination held at 15.2m (for the 4 day)...so i overshot by a lot

this week is 9, which opened early, sorority row, i can do bad all by myself, and whiteout

ill go tyler perry's bad at 19m.

[Pyser]

ill go cloudy with meatballs at 19m this weekend

last weekend tyler perry took it at 23.4m

[Buccaneer]

Here's a quick quiz. Without looking it up (or if you already know, without spilling), we know that Titanic is #1 all-time international box office and Return of the King is #2. What is #3?

[Pyser]

dark knight and star wars pop into my head immediately...but for some reason id think something like pirates 2 or spiderman 2 or might sneak in there?

[Pyser]

fame, surrogates and pandorum open. meatballs tries to hold.

ill go willis for the win with surrogates, but only at like 17m

[Pyser]

cloudy meatballs repeats at 25m. i cant believe i was over with surrogates, only made 14.9m

[Pyser]

a lot opening, but ill go zombieland at 27m

[Pyser]

made 24.7m

[Karlifornia]

Nice call with Zombieland. Good word of mouth really helped it out.

[Pyser]

couples retreat vs zombieland

z has great word of mouth, but can it top 20m? thats what i think couples will make, and ill go with vaughn

[Pyser]

vince vaughn rules, apparently. couples made 34.2m

[Pyser]

ill go where the wild things are at 30m. kids rule.

[Pyser]

it made 32.6m. not a bad guess.

[Pyser]

saw 6 opens a week before halloween. thats all i need to know, atroboy be damned. 34m.

[Chief Rum]

Yup, this week is easy. $34 M is probably as good a guess as any.

[Buccaneer]

That's probably the furthest off I have ever seen both of you. I'm glad that PA got the big win.

[Pyser]

yeah, absolutely embarrassing. it doesnt help that i hate horror movies, so i just assumed saw was an institution...but then again, i shouldve listened to my gut a bit more thinking, "when was the 6th movie of ANYTHING good?"

anyway, for those that missed it, paranormal activity won it at 22m, while saw 6 had the worst opening of any saw movie, at 14m.

[Pyser]

dola, buc, answer your damn trivia question already!

[Buccaneer]

Sorry, I had forgotten about that.

Spoiler

Third highest grossing movie of all time - international only:

Ice Age 3

Really.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Sorry, I had forgotten about that.

Spoiler

Third highest grossing movie of all time - international only:

Ice Age 3

Really.

Wow, really? That's crazy. I think I can win some bar bets with that one.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

yeah, absolutely embarrassing. it doesnt help that i hate horror movies, so i just assumed saw was an institution...but then again, i shouldve listened to my gut a bit more thinking, "when was the 6th movie of ANYTHING good?"

anyway, for those that missed it, paranormal activity won it at 22m, while saw 6 had the worst opening of any saw movie, at 14m.

I actually liked Rocky's 6th movie.

[Pyser]

yeah, i thought of harry potter, too. but really, thinking mostly horror, its a safe bet it sucks. oh well.

[Pyser]

this is it opens this weekend. well, really a few days ago. usually on halloween weekend youd go horror movie, but with halloween on a saturday, whos going to the movies?

mj takes it, but i have NO idea how many people are interested. maybe no one. maybe everyone. ill say 25m, but it could be way higher.

[Pyser]

this is it made 23.2m this weekend, and 34.4m in 5 days. not bad.

[Pyser]

jim carreys a christmas carol should be big, though why they kept making these movies after scrooged is beyond me

36m. seems early for an xmas movie by the way...

[Chief Rum]

I think A Christmas Carol is a safe bet to go with, although I was surprised at how crowded the theater was for "Goats" tonight.

I don't see a day time crowd for that one, though, like A Christmas Carol will get.

And Scrooged is terrific.

[Pyser]

id be surprised if goats cracked 10m. it just screams indie to me...and i dont think clooney can open a movie.

[Pyser]

christmas carol made 30m.

i was wrong on goats, though. it made 12.7m

[Pyser]

2012 - 29m is the guess. feels low, but 2 and a half hour runtime?

[Chief Rum]

I watched with a packed house at the last late showing of 2012 (11 p.m.), and that was after front row seating was all that was left 15 minutes before the show that started a half hour before it.

Even with the long run timing, I am guessing this one beats your $29 M. I think $40 M myself.

[Pyser]

yeah im sure im too low on this one

[Chief Rum]

$23 M Friday night alone. Looks like this one could be north of $50 M by the end of the weekend.

[Pyser]

$65.2 mil.

wow.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Pyser

wow.

Agreed. I didn't think 2012 had a chance to recoup its production costs (reportedly ~$220M+), but they are probably close after their opening weekend, as I heard they did around $160M internationally and $65M in the U.S.

There is talk that there may be a television spinoff.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Agreed. I didn't think 2012 had a chance to recoup its production costs (reportedly ~$220M+), but they are probably close after their opening weekend, as I heard they did around $160M internationally and $65M in the U.S.

There is talk that there may be a television spinoff.

Hmm, a spinoff in the post-apocalyptic world they were setting up? That could be interesting if it's done by the right people. Of course, I have also heard Emmerich himself is looking to possibly make a sequel.

I read they spent about $100 M on marketing, so it's still quite a bit of a ways off from straight profitability on the public numbers (which don't mean squat, with everyone's take, they have to gross about three times of cost to make money--although maybe they make that up with DVD/NetFlix/post-theater revenue).

[Pyser]

ok, tomorrow might be the biggest teen movie day ever....well, until the next twilight movie. but these stories suck, theres a chance a backlash will happen and it peaks this weekend. we can only hope. anyway, how huge will twilight: new moon be?

id think itll crack 100m, maybe as high as 110. im saying 111, because it looks nice.

but since last week doubled my guess, this could go as low as 55m (it absolutely wont).

[Kodos]

My wife and her sisters are all going to see New Moon tonight. I can't believe there are two more movies to endure before this whole thing will be over.

[Pyser]

looks like 111 will be way too low

new moon made 72m on friday alone

[Swaggs]

New Moon hit $140-million over he weekend. I think I read that it did $250-million worldwide.

BTW... Paranormal Activity is up over $100-million now ($106M). Absolutely amazing for a movie that cost $15K to make. I read that one of their biggest expenses was like $500 to rent a police officer's uniform for a scene that they ended up cutting.

[Pyser]

pretty easy to stick with new moon this weekend. though i think there will be a huge drop. maybe a record drop. still good for $40m in my mind though. (has any film made $100m less the next weekend?)

[Pyser]

it made 42.8m to hold on, narrowly beating the blind side, which went up in week 2.

and new moon did have the biggest drop ever, $100m.

[Pyser]

nothing too big comes out this weekend. and i think we are now into repeat business for new moon. so im going kinda different, thinking the blindside isnt done yet. 18m.

[Pyser]

blindside did indeed take it at 20m.

this week is princess and the frog, and invictus

dont go against kids. 28m.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

blindside did indeed take it at 20m.

this week is princess and the frog, and invictus

dont go against kids. 28m.

Yup, that's what I was thinking. The Princess & The Frog are probably going to make a killing this weekend, and then get another boost in and around the holidays.

[Pyser]

glad i dont play by price is right rules.

princess and the frog made 25m. less than 10 for invictus

[Pyser]

ok, avatar time

if you asked me last week, id of said 30m because it looks weird and cant possibly be good. but the reviews ive seen have been glowingly positive, and im starting to get excited to see it in 3d on imax...but is anyone else?

i mean, this could make 40m, or it could make 100m. i have no idea. anyone else?

right now im saying 60m, seems safe. but it could nearly double that for all i know, like i said.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

ok, avatar time

if you asked me last week, id of said 30m because it looks weird and cant possibly be good. but the reviews ive seen have been glowingly positive, and im starting to get excited to see it in 3d on imax...but is anyone else?

i mean, this could make 40m, or it could make 100m. i have no idea. anyone else?

right now im saying 60m, seems safe. but it could nearly double that for all i know, like i said.

The studio's hoping to hit triple digits, I'm sure, with the cash they put out backing it. It might do it; there has been a ton of advertising on this thing.

But I don't feel the buzz for it like I do franchise films or remakes/re-boots i.e. stories with a set audience and expectation. It almost feels like the "buzz" is more from the Hollywood community (because it's Cameron, because of the huge budget, and because of the techno stuff), and that's partly what's driving the media gloss, too.

It's a good thing it is reviewing well, because for fans to actually get excited about it, it's going to need to wow them and generate word of mouth, I think.

I think $60 M is probably a good target to aim for, but I wouldn't be surprised if the marketing machine jumped it up significantly or if the lack of actual fan zeal I perceive knocked it down a lot.

[Pyser]

it made 77m. we werent terribly far off. this week is tough, will post later