The Trump Presidency – 2016

[RainMaker]

With these Federalist Society judges, you aren't paying for the social issues. It's fine if they get them, but they're buying them for the business stuff which Roberts has been 100% in line with.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

With these Federalist Society judges, you aren't paying for the social issues. It's fine if they get them, but they're buying them for the business stuff which Roberts has been 100% in line with.

Kagan's dissent on the CFPB case hits them on that a bit and hilariously references Schoolhouse Rock in doing so:

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion.../19-7_n6io.pdf

The majority offers the civics class version of separation of powers—call it the Schoolhouse Rock definition of the phrase. See Schoolhouse Rock! Three Ring Government (Mar. 13, 1979), America - Three Ring Government - Schoolhouse Rock - YouTube (“Ring one, Executive. Two is Legislative,that’s Congress. Ring three, Judiciary”). The Constitu-tion’s first three articles, the majority recounts, “split the atom of sovereignty” among Congress, the President, and the courts. Ante, at 21 (internal quotation marks omitted).And by that mechanism, the Framers provided a “simple” fix “to governmental power and its perils.” Ibid.

SI

[GrantDawg]

Since Iran took a warrant out on President Trump, is there anyway we could give him to them?

[Ksyrup]

So right now, Trump has just under 88% of the Republican closed primary vote against Uncommitted in Kentucky. Anyone have any historical perspective on an unopposed president's primary vote? 12% seems like a big number in a state like KY - particularly since local office primaries were really the only reason to come out to vote (Trump, McConnell and Barr were going to cruise).

[bronconick]

Seems pretty common. Obama only got about 60% in West Virginia and Kentucky in 2012. In more comparable to incumbent blue states for him, Obama got 87% in Massachusetts and 84% in Rhode Island.

2012 Democratic Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

[Ksyrup]

Hmm. Most of those states, Obama was running against someone though. Uncommitted got only 6% of the total vote in all primaries. It is interesting that in a few states, Romney won the Republican side by a larger margin than Obama won the Democrat side. I don't remember those primaries - but 2012 feels like 1912 in Covid-19/Trump Years.

Here, Trump is the only person on the ballot, so it feels like 13.5% (as of now) voting NOT TRUMP within his own party has some significance. That's over 50K Republicans. It's not going to swing KY in November, but even though Trump is up easily here, he's down a good bit compared to 2016 (last I saw, he's up 18 right now and won KY by 30 in 2016).

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Hmm. Most of those states, Obama was running against someone though. Uncommitted got only 6% of the total vote in all primaries. It is interesting that in a few states, Romney won the Republican side by a larger margin than Obama won the Democrat side. I don't remember those primaries - but 2012 feels like 1912 in Covid-19/Trump Years.

Here, Trump is the only person on the ballot, so it feels like 13.5% (as of now) voting NOT TRUMP within his own party has some significance. That's over 50K Republicans. It's not going to swing KY in November, but even though Trump is up easily here, he's down a good bit compared to 2016 (last I saw, he's up 18 right now and won KY by 30 in 2016).

It may have some significance.

But it may also just be blowing off some steam. A "protest vote" by some Republicans that will be there for McConnell & Trump in November.

[Ksyrup]

You can tell things are getting bad for Trump when McConnell and Fox News personalities start to cave on pushing people to wear masks. I mean, where were you a-holes 3 months ago? Oh that's right, the pandemic was going to magically disappear by Easter, so who needs a mask that makes you look you a weak sissy?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You can tell things are getting bad for Trump when McConnell and Fox News personalities start to cave on pushing people to wear masks. I mean, where were you a-holes 3 months ago? Oh that's right, the pandemic was going to magically disappear by Easter, so who needs a mask that makes you look you a weak sissy?

McConnell and Fox News know that the pandemic is bad and that controliing it will help the GOP get re-elected.

Trump might know that, too. But he cares more about not wearing a mask than getting re-elected.

[QuikSand]

Holy hell, Rick...

Former U.S Navy Seal Dr. Dan Barkhuff wants to know if @realDonaldTrump is a coward who can't stand up to Putin or if he's complicit.

Well, Donald, which is it? pic.twitter.com/rZUsgSpDv2

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) June 30, 2020

My fingertips are singed just typing this out... wow

[ISiddiqui]

Holy fuck!

[albionmoonlight]

Remind me to never piss off the Lincoln Project guys.

[tarcone]

Wow.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Remind me to never piss off the Lincoln Project guys.

They're doing good work now. But it would have been nice if they had done something sooner like when we were caging kids or sided with white supremacists in Charlottesville or when his kid was Tweeting to the world about how he colluded with Russia or... Still, better late than never.

SI

[BYU 14]

That was stiff! Love it

[Kodos]

Yowsa. The coward ain't gonna like that. Now tie in Moscow Mitch.

[Comey]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

They're doing good work now. But it would have been nice if they had done something sooner like when we were caging kids or sided with white supremacists in Charlottesville or when his kid was Tweeting to the world about how he colluded with Russia or... Still, better late than never.

SI

Well, it wasn't formed until late last year (12.17.19), so....

[RainMaker]

I don't understand why the Democrats can't make ads like that on a regular basis (besides being worthless as always).

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't understand why the Democrats can't make ads like that on a regular basis (besides being worthless as always).

From what I've read, the Democrats have let the Lincoln Project handle the negative aspects while generating content for Biden that is positive.

Doesn't really matter, Republicans are going to steal the election anyway.


Senate GOP blocks bill to require campaigns report foreign election assistance

[RainMaker]

Like the administration going after the ACA and gutting the pre-existing condition provision should have been a real easy ad to make last week. There is overwhelming support for that, especially in a pandemic. Not a bad idea to let people know.

James Carville is a dumb dope most of the time but he was right that the Lincoln Project just throws punches while the Democrats sit around having meetings and doing internal polls about what may or may not work.

[Vegas Vic]

I know it's almost impossible, but could we potentially see a sitting president not run for re-election for only the second time in modern history?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I know it's almost impossible, but could we potentially see a sitting president not run for re-election for only the second time in modern history?

Highly doubt it. His ego won't allow it. If he loses, he'll blame it on cheating somehow.

[RainMaker]

I saw a report on it but is there any truth to it? Sounded like just the musings of some Republican analyst or whatever. Seems way too late in the game to pull out now.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Highly doubt it. His ego won't allow it. If he loses, he'll blame it on cheating somehow.

I don't know if his ego will allow a blowout though and it will be hard to claim cheating if that happens.

I think if he could, he would happily walk away. He doesn't seem to like most aspects of the job. But once he is no longer president, he is wide open to a lot of legal action so that likely keeps him in.

[RainMaker]

I think he wants out. Lets face it, he likes to do the media stuff. Likes watching TV, tweeting, giving speeches and interviews to people who will coax his ego. He hates having to deal with a virus, or unemployment, or protests going on throughout the country.

So ultimately if he loses, I think he'd be happy to set up his own TV network or media company and let that roll. Gets to do all the stuff he likes and avoid the responsibility of being President.

[Comey]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I saw a report on it but is there any truth to it? Sounded like just the musings of some Republican analyst or whatever. Seems way too late in the game to pull out now.

There are a lot of theories out there right now. One is that the report about the polls are meant to spur GOP support. Another is that the guy in Washington plans to drop out of the race at the last moment, but is deciding to take everything with him.

Another has him resigning the day of the election, if it appears he's going to lose, and flee the country.

It's all way, way too early for any of that. The odd thing is that the guy in Washington seems resigned to losing; twice, on camera, he's said that Biden will be the next president. Whether he is trying to drum up sympathy or what, who knows.

I'd imagine the guy is at a fever pitch right now, but he wouldn't suddenly just leave. The GOP may want him to at this point (I guess even McConnell is beginning to turn on him somewhat?), but they made their bed together.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So ultimately if he loses, I think he'd be happy to set up his own TV network or media company and let that roll. Gets to do all the stuff he likes and avoid the responsibility of being President.

Oh gawd, not the Trump Network, though on the bright side it would fail within a year

[RainMaker]

I know things can change a lot but just looking at these polls coming out every day, it seems like it would take a massive blunder from Biden or health emergency to make this competitive. I mean Biden is up double digits in battleground states that Trump needs to win. Just don't see how he can make up that kind of ground with such high disapprovals.

Question, if a President dies between the nomination and election, what happens? Does the VP just get the slot? I know it's happened before but the dead person never won I don't think.

Both are old and campaigning. There's a chance one or both get the virus.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Oh gawd, not the Trump Network, though on the bright side it would fail within a year

Thought I saw stuff about them just buying OANN and re-branding it. I actually think it would do well. Boomers are one of the few people watching cable TV these days and he does well with a portion of that demographic.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I know things can change a lot but just looking at these polls coming out every day, it seems like it would take a massive blunder from Biden or health emergency to make this competitive. I mean Biden is up double digits in battleground states that Trump needs to win. Just don't see how he can make up that kind of ground with such high disapprovals.

Question, if a President dies between the nomination and election, what happens? Does the VP just get the slot? I know it's happened before but the dead person never won I don't think.

Both are old and campaigning. There's a chance one or both get the virus.

I just read about this and timing matters: ElectoralVote

Q: What is the course of action if Donald Trump decides not to run for re-election, either because he can't stand the thought of being thumped by Joe Biden on Election Day, or because the biggest of Republican bigwigs decide for him that he has to go? C.W., Kansas City, MO

A: There are three basic scenarios. And note that all of these are predicated on Trump either voluntarily dropping out, or else becoming unavailable due to death or disability. There is nothing in Republican Party rules, as they currently stand, that would allow them to cashier Trump against his will:

Trump drops out tomorrow: There are no longer enough unpledged delegates available for anyone besides Trump to claim the Republican nomination. So, if Trump were to throw in the towel tomorrow, or next week, or anytime before the Republican convention, then we would have an open convention, and his pledged delegates would become free agents. Exactly how many times they would have to vote for Trump before becoming free agents depends on the circumstances of his departure, and the state the delegates hail from, but the vast majority of them would be free to vote their personal preference after the second ballot. Party leadership would presumably try to steer the delegates toward a favored candidate, most likely Mike Pence, though if Trump were to die tragically, there might be sentiment for someone like Ivanka Trump in order to "honor" his legacy. And, in any event, there aren't smoke-filled rooms at the conventions anymore, so the delegates might be willing to be led, but they might not be.

Trump drops out the day after the convention: Now, this is where smoke-filled rooms enter the equation. By Republican Party rules, the replacement candidate in this circumstance would be chosen by the 168 members of the RNC. The same would be true for the Democrats, incidentally, except that the DNC has a little over 400 members.

Trump drops out the day before the election: At some point—and this is determined by state law in the various states and D.C.—it would be too late to legally remove Trump's name from the ballot. That time would definitely have arrived by the day before the election and, in most states, would arrive by Oct. 1. In that case, the Republican Party would announce that a vote for Donald Trump is really a vote for [X], where [X] is the Party's favored candidate. Again, that would presumably be Mike Pence. And depending on how the upcoming Supreme Court decision about faithless electors comes down, it might have to be Mike Pence.

[molson]

though if Trump were to die tragically, there might be sentiment for someone like Ivanka Trump in order to "honor" his legacy.

OK don't get my hopes up for Ivanka/Biden debates.

Trump drops out the day before the election

I can't even believe we're talking about this. Trump has truly made the impossible possible.

[Vegas Vic]

I suppose if there's anyone who could fuck this up, it's Joe Biden. His operatives need to make sure he takes his naps and keeps his speeches to a minimum.

[thesloppy]

At pretty much any other point I would've celebrated the idea of Trump leaving office under any circumstances, but now I would hate to be denied the prospect of watching him suffer through a historic loss.

[tarcone]

I bet we see a historic amount of people vote this election. Both sides are pretty fired up.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Comey

Well, it wasn't formed until late last year (12.17.19), so....

That's kindof my point. It wasn't until now that it was time to go take a bat to him rather than after all the other awful stuff he has done.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I suppose if there's anyone who could fuck this up, it's Joe Biden. His operatives need to make sure he takes his naps and keeps his speeches to a minimum.

Maximum naps, minimum speeches: Vote Biden 2020!

SI

[JPhillips]

Yet another Qanon believer wins a GOP House primary. This time in CO.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yet another Qanon believer wins a GOP House primary. This time in CO.

And knocking out a Trump-back incumbent while doing so.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yet another Qanon believer wins a GOP House primary. This time in CO.

Every election cycle over the last decade, the Republicans seem to find another batshit group to be their new extremists. They're going to end up with a dozen Qanoners that make the old Freedom Caucus look reasonable.

[Vegas Vic]

What a difference a few months make, eh?

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politi...rump-joe-biden

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

What a difference a few months make, eh?

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politi...rump-joe-biden

Wasn't that the exact same percentage chance he had to win over Hillary on election night 2016?

[Flasch186]

And the GOP yawns over the bounty's put on US troops by Russia. Unbelievable how the frog has been boiled, cremated, and spread of ashes...

The presidency will never be the same in my lifetime. It has been eviscerated of all that was meant to make it esteemed.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Wasn't that the exact same percentage chance he had to win over Hillary on election night 2016?

RealClearPolitics - 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds
RCP said betting odds were 13%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
538 was 29%

Everyone else was like 1%, which is why most aren't doing projections this year.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

And the GOP yawns over the bounty's put on US troops by Russia. Unbelievable how the frog has been boiled, cremated, and spread of ashes...

The presidency will never be the same in my lifetime. It has been eviscerated of all that was meant to make it esteemed.

If you convince yourself it didn't happen, there's nothing to be outraged over.

Even guilty people can pass a lie detector test if they convince themselves of an alternate "truth."

[PilotMan]

If the D's were even in the slightest way like the R's in this instance, they would already have gotten the names of soldiers who even remotely 'could' have been the victims in this, and trotted out the parents, children, and spouses and already been running ads about their blood being on the presidents hands.

[Kodos]

Now if Hillary was still Secretary of State, you bet your ass there would be a dozen investigations.

[Comey]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That's kindof my point. It wasn't until now that it was time to go take a bat to him rather than after all the other awful stuff he has done.

SI

No, there have been groups doing it all along. NowThis has been absolutely consistent and effective in posting videos showing his hypocrisy and times he's been out of line or unlawful. There are several other groups too. It's highlighted moreso with The Lincoln Project because it's geared towards the election, and also that there's more high-profile people delivering the message (and, thus, getting more support of the Democratic Party).

But make no mistake...these kind of videos have been circulating for the last four years.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

If the D's were even in the slightest way like the R's in this instance, they would already have gotten the names of soldiers who even remotely 'could' have been the victims in this, and trotted out the parents, children, and spouses and already been running ads about their blood being on the presidents hands.

I've seen at least two parents make statements about this, but none tied to a group.Yet.

I'm guessing the Dems will continue to sit back and let the other groups run the negative ads. I'm sure there is some sort of loose alliance/strategy to that effect.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm guessing the Dems will continue to sit back and let the other groups run the negative ads. I'm sure there is some sort of loose alliance/strategy to that effect.

Traditionally, this is how the Republicans have run things. Their side groups run the utterly horrific ads so the candidates can 'keep their hands clean' to an extent. Now, this doesn't apply with Trump of course.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Traditionally, this is how the Republicans have run things. Their side groups run the utterly horrific ads so the candidates can 'keep their hands clean' to an extent. Now, this doesn't apply with Trump of course.

Glad Dems are finally embracing this playbook