COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Meanwhile, my daughter still refuses to take it. She fears future reproduction issues.

Yes, I don't know if that concern is valid but it is certainly understandable.

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issues order prohibiting 'vaccine passports' | TheHill

Of course, in Texas, Abbott put out an executive order banning any sort of vaccine passport /and/ (because, of course "local is better" only applies down to a state level not local one) forbidding smaller jurisdictions (say, Austin) from doing it.

SI

We have one those too, but I can't imagine any state or city conditioning public services based on vaccinations. Except public colleges, which I guess these orders preclude from requiring vaccines for attendance.

[Edward64]

It sucks to be Tokyo. Postponed the Olympics last year and this year not limiting international fans. I'm assuming Japan will lose a lot of money being the unlucky host during the pandemic.

Somewhat interested in China winter in 2022. Not as interested in Paris summer in 2024. Definitely not interested in LA in 2028.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Im afraid this is the beginning of the end of our population problem. I imagine these viruses will continue to mutate and continue killing people.

I don't think we have a population problem. The world can support a lot more people than it currently has, and projections before this hit were for population decline to begin by the end of the century.

I'm not as optimistic as JPhillips ... I think eventually we get by something several orders of magnitude worse than this virus. But developing tech is making it easier for us to fend them off, allowing this one at least and probably others to be less damaging than I expected a year ago.

[Ksyrup]

So much of the opposition to masking and restrictions that I hear/read completely ignores the practicality that I believe is built into the restrictions. Yes, they are primarily built on science, but there's a real world implementation element that matters, too.

Two examples:

1. I recently listened to a Trumper ridicule having to wear a mask in a restaurant except when sitting at a table, saying it was crazy that he was somehow protected when sitting but not when standing. Well, no, that's not the theory. The idea is that if you are sitting, you are not moving and thus less able to spread or catch the virus than if you are moving around. This is why bars are such an issue as compared to restaurants and are usually more restricted. But the more practical thing is, the suggested guidance is that people should wear their masks at the table unless they are actively eating/drinking. But most people do not, and most mandates don't push that, because practically it's impossible to enforce. You want to tell me to wear my mask while sitting at a table, then I'm just going to hold a drink to my face every time you take one step toward me to warn me. It's just easier and more practical to leave people alone while they are sitting at the table, since it generally follows the science regarding being stationary versus moving around a room.

2. Requiring social distancing/masking for those who are vaccinated. Here's the problem - how do you know who's vaccinated and who's not? I would love to walk around without a mask now that I am fully vaccinated, but unless I'm wearing a neon sign that says "vaccinated - ask me for my passport," how do you effectively keep non-vaccinated people masked? This is basically a permission slip for 100% of the population to be unmasked. And that's an issue. So we all must be masked for practical reasons that science suggests are not necessary for a segment of the population. That will change when a significant portion of the population gets vaccinated, but of course the "if" that's going to happen is not a given.

I don't understand why this is so hard. And believe me, once it gets above 80 and humid, I am not going to enjoy wearing a mask at all. But it has to happen. The amazing thing to me is how many people who want to get rid of all of these restrictions are actively resisting the one thing that will make them go away. Mindboggling.

[ISiddiqui]

Remembering how people were talking about how all the lockdowns were going to increase suicide. It turns out that didn't end up being the case.

https://apnews.com/article/pandemics...5125c040b2ae81

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[Bobble]

I haven't read through the 159 pages of this thread. What's the concise, intelligent reason to NOT get the vaccine? Not tested enough? I'm trying to wrap my head around smart people deciding NOT to get the vaccine and I'm kinda drawing a blank.

[NobodyHere]

I daresay the most intelligent concern is about the potential long term side effects of the vaccines.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I daresay the most intelligent concern is about the potential long term side effects of the vaccines.

Understandable but we appear to be seeing long-term effects of COVID already and none from the vaccines. Seems like the logical route would be take the vaccine and cross your fingers rather than get COVID and cross your fingers.

Secondly, most of the people seem to be of the camp that they are never getting the vaccine. Not that they aren't ready to take it yet. Am I misunderstanding that?

EDIT: I guess we're looking at rare blood clots with J&J. Forgot about that.

[Ksyrup]

The vaccine is like the mask - there's a political "if the other side says to get it, I'm not getting it" element to it. It follows from the idea that Covid isn't a big deal, or by now it's not a big deal (we've gone through the worst of it), so the vaccine is unnecessary and all restrictions should be lifted and people should be able to get back to normal life.

It's the same doubling down BS we've seen for the past several years - once you take a position on something, doing ANYTHING willingly that appears to be in conflict with that position means you are admitting you were wrong, and above all else, you have to save face.

And there's certainly an anti-vax element to a portion of the population.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So much of the opposition to masking and restrictions that I hear/read completely ignores the practicality that I believe is built into the restrictions. Yes, they are primarily built on science, but there's a real world implementation element that matters, too.

Two examples:

1. I recently listened to a Trumper ridicule having to wear a mask in a restaurant except when sitting at a table, saying it was crazy that he was somehow protected when sitting but not when standing. Well, no, that's not the theory. The idea is that if you are sitting, you are not moving and thus less able to spread or catch the virus than if you are moving around. This is why bars are such an issue as compared to restaurants and are usually more restricted. But the more practical thing is, the suggested guidance is that people should wear their masks at the table unless they are actively eating/drinking. But most people do not, and most mandates don't push that, because practically it's impossible to enforce. You want to tell me to wear my mask while sitting at a table, then I'm just going to hold a drink to my face every time you take one step toward me to warn me. It's just easier and more practical to leave people alone while they are sitting at the table, since it generally follows the science regarding being stationary versus moving around a room.

2. Requiring social distancing/masking for those who are vaccinated. Here's the problem - how do you know who's vaccinated and who's not? I would love to walk around without a mask now that I am fully vaccinated, but unless I'm wearing a neon sign that says "vaccinated - ask me for my passport," how do you effectively keep non-vaccinated people masked? This is basically a permission slip for 100% of the population to be unmasked. And that's an issue. So we all must be masked for practical reasons that science suggests are not necessary for a segment of the population. That will change when a significant portion of the population gets vaccinated, but of course the "if" that's going to happen is not a given.

I don't understand why this is so hard. And believe me, once it gets above 80 and humid, I am not going to enjoy wearing a mask at all. But it has to happen. The amazing thing to me is how many people who want to get rid of all of these restrictions are actively resisting the one thing that will make them go away. Mindboggling.

Agreed. People either can’t understand things like this, or just don’t want to

[molson]

I wonder if the people afraid of the blood clot risks have wives, girlfriends, or daughters on birth control.

It all sounds to me like people grasping at straws to justify not doing what they're told they should do.

[Kodos]

I worry that we'll have enough people refusing to get vaccinated that we never reach herd immunity and thus have to keep dealing with new variants.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by molson

I wonder if the people afraid of the blood clot risks have wives, girlfriends, or daughters on birth control.

It all sounds to me like people grasping at straws to justify not doing what they're told they should do.

Yep. Basically a one in a million shot of something going wrong due to the vaccine is not a valid reason to avoid getting it. You are in more danger driving to get the vaccine than you are getting the vaccine.

[albionmoonlight]

1 in a million chances should not be a big deal in a country that sells as many lottery tickets as we do.

[Bobble]

Is the argument though, that it's already 1 in a million just a few short months after release? What's it going to be two, five, 20 years from now? < shurg>

[Kodos]

The argument should be that you are much more likely to die/have bad side effects from NOT getting the vaccine than you are from getting it.

[molson]

I'm willing to take the risk of unknown future completely speculative problems to do my part to help end the pandemic.

Vaccines are really the best and only way out. The bottom line is that we really don't have any choice - except on a personal level, whether one chooses to be a part that solution, or to sit it out because they've decided they're special and entitled (but will still benefit from everyone else getting vaccinated and the world solely getting back to normal).

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Bobble

Is the argument though, that it's already 1 in a million just a few short months after release? What's it going to be two, five, 20 years from now? < shurg>

But we know that the risk of blood clots from COVID at 100,000 in a million.

Risk isn't absolute. It is relative to the risk of doing nothing.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Bobble

Is the argument though, that it's already 1 in a million just a few short months after release? What's it going to be two, five, 20 years from now? < shurg>

Less than the rate of death and serious medical complications from getting COVID.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

But we know that the risk of blood clots from COVID at 100,000 in a million.

Risk isn't absolute. It is relative to the risk of doing nothing.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Less than the rate of death and serious medical complications from getting COVID.

I get you. I'm just trying to understand the argument to not get the vaccine.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Bobble

I get you. I'm just trying to understand the argument to not get the vaccine.

There is a huge number of people looking for an excuse to not get it, this provides them one.

[albionmoonlight]

In fairness to these people (who I really disagree with), humans are bad at assessing risk. We vastly underrate the risk/cost of doing nothing.

We avoid yearly dental checkups and end up going in for emergency root canals.

We don't do preventative maintenance on our cars and end up paying for major repairs.

So focusing on the (small) risk of getting the vaccine and ignoring the (large) risk of not getting it does fit with human nature to some degree.

[Edward64]

I'm not convinced that pregnant (or soon to be) women should get it. Teenagers < 16 also. I think it is understandable those demographics are cautious.

[thesloppy]

My mom isn't going to get it, and while she probably is motivated by conspiracies and/or misinformation & fear, she is also practically a shut-in and the entire process of getting the shot probably would probably put her health at more risk than her current lifestyle, so I'm not going to bother arguing about it.

[Brian Swartz]

Aside from all the red herrings stuff, the argument against the vaccine essentially boils down to:

** Not trusting the establishment. I.e., the vaccine was overly rushed, we need years of data to know whether it's safe; the less-soft version of this are those who don't take existing vaccines either, believing that they simply don't do any good and/or are dangerous. Distrust of the medical authorities in general is sometimes but not always part of this.

** 'Natural living' philosophy. Some people are opposed to putting medicine in their body that they don't absolutely need on principle. There's a part of this in me although only a small part, but I can sympathize with the mindset. The various scandals surrounding overprescribing of medications, the whole issue with resistance to antibiotics becoming more and more of a problem, opioid epidemic, etc. - all this sort of feeds into the more conspiratorially-inclined as well.

** Independent thinking. There's also a segment for whom being told they *must* do something is good enough reason on it's own to not do it. They're going to be their own boss, and nobody is going to tell them what to do, etc. Anything with this sort of up-front pressure is someone selling you a bill of goods, yadda yadda yadda.

[ISiddiqui]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfiz...12-months.html

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will "likely" need a booster dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated. His comments were made public Thursday but were taped April 1.

Bourla said it's possible people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually.

Well boo. This seems like the first news that convinces me that this will be an annual flu shot sort of thing. I don't want this sore ass arm once a year.

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[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm willing to take the risk of unknown future completely speculative problems to do my part to help end the pandemic.

Vaccines are really the best and only way out. The bottom line is that we really don't have any choice - except on a personal level, whether one chooses to be a part that solution, or to sit it out because they've decided they're special and entitled (but will still benefit from everyone else getting vaccinated and the world solely getting back to normal).

So much this.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfiz...12-months.html



Well boo. This seems like the first news that convinces me that this will be an annual flu shot sort of thing. I don't want this sore ass arm once a year.

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I guess this is another example of how badly the Trump administration handled this. Although Boris’ vaccine rollout has been good, our general Covid response was average at best, but we’ve known this for months

[Ksyrup]

Not to mention, I just assumed this would be like the flu shot, even without someone in the know telling me. I don't have an issue with this at all.

[pantera]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I worry that we'll have enough people refusing to get vaccinated that we never reach herd immunity and thus have to keep dealing with new variants.

This.

I've followed all the rules. Basically lived as a shut-in for a year. On my rare ventures out, I've worn an N95 without exception. Got vaccinated. But if I still have to wear a mask in the fall because of these refuseniks, I'm going to snap & strangle one of them.

[Ksyrup]

I actually have not minded wearing a mask outside during the fall and winter - not only has it kept me warmer, but it eliminated colds and flu. Now, I'm going to be pissed in about 45 days when 80 and humid is the norm.

[ISiddiqui]

It's hard enough to get people to get this vaccine in the US. Every year? It's going to be impossible.

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[Ksyrup]

I wonder how many of these anti-Covid vaccine people who used to get the flu shot every year are now going to stop getting that one too. I tend to think it will be normalized once people see life get back to normal because of the vaccine, but we'll see. I could definitely see Trump making things worse as he tries to get back into the public eye in the next couple of years.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by pantera

This.

I've followed all the rules. Basically lived as a shut-in for a year. On my rare ventures out, I've worn an N95 without exception. Got vaccinated. But if I still have to wear a mask in the fall because of these refuseniks, I'm going to snap & strangle one of them.

You are touching on a disconnect that's out there. Everyone talks about how we've been "shut down" for a year. But we haven't. For a lot of people, being "shut down for a year" means that this one time in March 2020 they had to get takeout from Applebees instead of dining in and have otherwise been living their lives as normal (but with less crowds and the occasional check from the government).

It makes sense that these people don't see the urgent need to end the pandemic that the rest of us do because it hasn't really had the impact on them that it has had on folks who have been staying home, wearing masks, etc.

[Ksyrup]

Yep. This is what people were saying about Biden being out of touch with reality for talking about people taking vacations this summer if we do what's needed for the next 100 days, and they were like, "You mean like we did last summer?"

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I actually have not minded wearing a mask outside during the fall and winter - not only has it kept me warmer, but it eliminated colds and flu. Now, I'm going to be pissed in about 45 days when 80 and humid is the norm.

Think about wearing a mask in Denver right now...

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Think about wearing a mask in Denver right now...

I was quite happy wearing mine outside here today.

[Edward64]

Woah. Some interesting stuff. So Viagra is like a therapeutic for the coronavirus.

Welcome to the forum.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'm not as optimistic as JPhillips ... I think eventually we get by something several orders of magnitude worse than this virus. But developing tech is making it easier for us to fend them off, allowing this one at least and probably others to be less damaging than I expected a year ago.

I'm of two minds on this.

COVID is/was a fairly "mild" pandemic. It "only" has about an 0.5%ish CFR that jumped to about 3-5% when the health care system was overwhelmed. And we got better at fighting it fairly quickly (about a year). If we snuff it out before a much more virulent and deadly variant emerges, it will still have cost somewhere between 3-5M lives, potentially another order of magnitude greater of people living with long term effects, and huge economic damage. That's a "mild" pandemic. But it gave us a next generation platform to develop vaccines (mRNA), showed that there are still some very old ways (masks, social distancing) to help control spread before technology can catch up, and gave a couple of generations some social readiness about what a pandemic looks like.

However, it also showed how woefully unprepared we are in a number of ways from supply chain to technology. It also shined a spotlight on the huge social schisms and disparities that exist in our society and how viruses follow those weaknesses in our society. It showed a lack of societal understanding around raw science and our woeful reporting on science. And all of this led to a mistrust in the very institutions that could help get us out of this problem and, in some cases, active sabotage of those institutions.

SI

[Edward64]

Some more interesting stats.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/healt...cdc/index.html

"So far, about 5,800 breakthrough cases have been reported to CDC. To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics," the CDC told CNN via email.

About 77 million people in the US are fully vaccinated against coronavirus, according to a CNN analysis of CDC data. The CDC's reports on breakthrough cases will lag day-to-day reports of vaccines given, so many, if not most, of those breakthrough cases will have happened weeks ago.

Some became seriously ill and 74 people died, the CDC said. It said 396 -- 7% -- of those who got infected after they were vaccinated required hospitalization.

[Edward64]

Couple discussion points in this article. First was Fauci's response to Jordan

What determines when Americans reclaim ‘liberty’? Jim Jordan demands of Dr. Fauci — here is his answer - MarketWatch

“What determines when?” Rep. Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio, challenged Fauci. The congressman said restrictions on movements and closures of businesses had impinged upon people’s rights to go to church and even leave their homes. He called it a year-plus-long loss of liberty.
:
“My message, Congressman Jordan, is to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as we possibly can to get the level of infection in this country low, [such] that it is no longer a threat. That is when, and I believe when that happens, you will see,” he said.

“Right now, we have about 60,000 infections a day, which is a very large risk for a surge,” Fauci added. “We’re not talking about liberties. We’re talking about a pandemic that has killed 560,000 Americans. That’s what we’re talking about.”

He continued: “We would have liked to see it go all the way down to a very, very low level arbitrarily. We don’t know what that number is — probably less than 10,000 per day. We’re at a critical turning point. Every day we get better and better at being able to control it.”

I don't know the # but Fauci's 10,000 per day passes my sniff test. I do wish Fauci would talk more about what vaccinated Americans can do vs cannot do.

Regarding J&J blood clot issue

That equates to a 0.00009% risk, assuming the J&J vaccine was the cause. To put that in perspective, up to 0.1% of women are at risk of a blood clot from the contraceptive pill. The risk of a blood clot on a long-haul flight is 3% to 12%.
:
What’s more, the risk of blood clots soars with severe cases of COVID-19. “Overall, 20% of the COVID-19 patients were found to have blood clots in the veins, and among patients in the intensive care unit, that statistic increased to 31%,” according to a study from UC San Diego Health.

The vaccine from Johnson & Johnson unit US:JNJ Janssen is an adenovirus vector-based vaccine that only requires one shot. Clinical trials showed it had 72% efficacy in the U.S.

Those stats are great but then the blood clot on long-haul flight being 3% to 12% makes the comparison fishy? I'm not sure what it is but the J&J and flight blood clot severity (?) factor are different.

Regardless, the odds are small enough where I would not hesitate to take it assuming there was medical care close by to help (e.g. in Mercedes Benz stadium and not local CVS or Publix).

[JPhillips]

There's a growing gap in vaccine hesitancy between red and blue states. Again, we know how to fix this, but Trump won't do it.

My guess was that crystal-clear evidence of the partisan vaccine-hesitancy gap wouldn’t show up in the real world data until May.

I was wrong.

The red-state vaccine gap is already here. https://t.co/s548rJu3Qs pic.twitter.com/tj8cpwKCL3

— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) April 17, 2021

[Ghost Econ]

What's amazing is he's convinced them that he's the only reason we have a vaccine, while also convincing them that having the vaccine is a bad thing.

[PilotMan]

I made the mistake of asking my Dad if he and my step mom had plans to get their vaccines a few weeks back. I was met with a one word, "No", and then a few hours later, the fake story link in FB about Hank Aaron supposedly succumbing to the vaccine, with no other commentary associated with it from him. That was the last we talked about it. But it seems that his news sources are more and more narrow regarding all this.

[Atocep]

6 months ago my wife's very conservative step dad was talking to her about how seriously they've taken covid, how he wears a mask at work even though it's uncomfortable for him, how they're not traveling or eating out, and overall just discussing the seriousness of it.

Today he was telling her how this isn't a "real pandemic" because we're not stacking and burning bodies, that the measures being taken are destroying families, and how they don't plan on getting vaccinated because they "don't trust these people" and the side effects are worse than getting COVID in some cases.

[cuervo72]

You should suggest a trip to Brazil.

[Edward64]

No problem with in-laws, they took it as soon as available.

5 RN's and 1 doctor in extended family, no issues in taking them. But there are younger nieces and nephews that won't until some time after approval for those age groups.

[Edward64]

Article I read today that Biden is thinking about booster shots later this year. Highly recommend we place the order and pay the down deposit now, be first in line.

I don't know what this means for the excess shots we supposedly have already. I was hoping they would be donated to developing countries but maybe not if we need to plan for a booster shot in Q4.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Article I read today that Biden is thinking about booster shots later this year. Highly recommend we place the order and pay the down deposit now, be first in line.

I don't know what this means for the excess shots we supposedly have already. I was hoping they would be donated to developing countries but maybe not if we need to plan for a booster shot in Q4.

They'd be different shots, right? Any booster shot would have some formulation to battle some of the common variants now, I would think. So you could still do vaccine diplomacy /and/ get the boosters, which seems like a slam dunk idea.

SI