NFL 2019 Season Thread

[molson]

Why would anyone try to go even 8-8 when the reward for tanking is so great? All but maybe 8 teams should tank every year. (That's the number of teams with better than 20-1 odds to win the super bowl this year). Sure, teams have won with longer odds than that, but it's rare - it'd be a better to tank. Then when enough teams do the right thing and tank, you have no idea what games are actual real athletic competitions - like the NBA

Don't give the top player aquisition prize to the worst team. It's not complicated. There's zero benefit to the league to handing the Dolphins that prize.

[BishopMVP]

But football isn't basketball where a single top player can make the difference, playing guys and trying to win is how they get better & you figure out who is good, and theoretically half the teams who end up 8-8 were 8-7 & possibly in playoff contention going into week 17!

[JPhillips]

The big problem is how much revenue is guaranteed. Teams don't take much of a financial hit if they stink and team valuations rise even through bad years. If it cost owners to be bad there would be a lot of pushback to management plans to tank.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

But football isn't basketball where a single top player can make the difference, playing guys and trying to win is how they get better & you figure out who is good, and theoretically half the teams who end up 8-8 were 8-7 & possibly in playoff contention going into week 17!

If a single player isn't so important, why is it so desperately necessary to the league that that player goes to the Dolphins? What is the downside of that player ending up on Carolina, or Tennessee?

Edit:. I think it's be super exciting if a team like that, who may be a QB away, has the top one stumble into their laps when they weren't tanking. Though my preferred solution would be that proposed wheel setup, where picks are distributed evenly years ahead of time, and every team already knows their draft position going into a season, and draft order is not tied in any way to wins and losses. I know that's too radical to ever happen though.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

But football isn't basketball where a single top player can make the difference, playing guys and trying to win is how they get better & you figure out who is good, and theoretically half the teams who end up 8-8 were 8-7 & possibly in playoff contention going into week 17!

Honestly, with how the league works right now every team should tank until it drafts a qb with top 10 potential. The league has made 1 position exponentially more important than any other so until that position is filled your margin for error is too small. Filling that position with someone on a rookie deal opens up a larger window for your team as well.

And if what the dolphins are doing doesn't push the league into a lottery of some sort you're probably going to see tanking become far more widespread.

[NobodyHere]

There’s More History to Antonio Brown’s History

[miami_fan]

Big Ben to have season-ending elbow surgery

[molson]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Big Ben to have season-ending elbow surgery

Time to tank.

They even play the Dolphins in a Monday night game this year. People paid for tickets to that.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Honestly, with how the league works right now every team should tank until it drafts a qb with top 10 potential. The league has made 1 position exponentially more important than any other so until that position is filled your margin for error is too small. Filling that position with someone on a rookie deal opens up a larger window for your team as well.

And if what the dolphins are doing doesn't push the league into a lottery of some sort you're probably going to see tanking become far more widespread.

But how many first round draft picks have been a bust? Can you win a Super Bowl with Winston or Cam?

Or, can you win with a Wilson, Prescott, Brady, etc.?

[Vince, Pt. II]

Obligatory Trent Dilfer reference.

[Kodos]

Obligatory Dan Marino reference.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Big Ben to have season-ending elbow surgery

Originally Posted by molson

Time to tank.

I wonder just how much football I'll end up watching this year? If I couldn't get excited by now, what's the point?

[molson]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

But how many first round draft picks have been a bust? Can you win a Super Bowl with Winston or Cam?

Or, can you win with a Wilson, Prescott, Brady, etc.?

It's not a guarantee of course, but every team would rather pick #1 than #10. Obviously the Dolphins feel that way. Maybe they'd be the worst anyway, but they want to do everything they can to ensure it

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by molson

Time to tank.

They even play the Dolphins in a Monday night game this year. People paid for tickets to that.

Children are starving in the world yet people will pay hundreds to watch the Dolphins or the Browns.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by molson

It's not a guarantee of course, but every team would rather pick #1 than #10. Obviously the Dolphins feel that way. Maybe they'd be the worst anyway, but they want to do everything they can to ensure it

No argument, I was arguing specifically against having to get QB in the first round to win. If nothing else, the #1 pick gives you the ability to move down in the draft for draft capital.

[Thomkal]

Drew Brees out about 6 weeks with thumb injury

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Drew Brees out about 6 weeks with thumb injury

As a Saints fan, I hope this is true and he can come back this season--especially because 9-7 probably wins the NFC South this year.

But there's a chance that there's a complication and it puts him out for the season. I can't imagine that much has to go wrong with the thumb on your throwing hand for it to become a season ending injury.

And there's another chance that, if that's the case, both he and Roethlisberger just never come back and retire.

Which would be so bizarre to lose both of those guys for good in the same random week 2.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I wonder just how much football I'll end up watching this year? If I couldn't get excited by now, what's the point?

Hey you still can watch Tomlin coach his ass off out there!

[Arles]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Yeah, hes a shitshow. Everything was going in his favor in the 2nd half and he blew it.

Although that interception in the back of the end zone at the very least needed to be reviewed.

All turnovers are reviewed, the league looked at it and determined it couldn't overrule the call on the field. Had it been ruled incomplete, they probably wouldn't have overruled that either.

Of course in Green Bay, they wont even review that yet will call offensive interference off of a review against the Vikings(very questionable considering I think that is the first time they have called any type of interference off of a review).

There were four offensive PI calls in the game and two were pretty clear (Cook blocking not one, but two Packers on the TD and the Graham push off). There other two were dicey, but the Vikings could have challenged either.

It always feels like the refs screw the Vikings playing in Green Bay. I can watch 10 college games on any given Saturday and feel the refs do a fine job and the majority of the time in the NFL I feel the refs are deciding games. Rant over!

The refs literally stole a win from GB in Lambeau against the Vikings last season when their first 3-week crusade on Clay Matthews undid a game clinching INT by Alexander. I wouldn't put anything that happened today on that level. I think the Packers got a few 50-50 calls, but I don't see the complaints on the Cook offensive PI:

a booth initiated review ruled this was offensive pass interference from Dalvin Cook, wiping a Vikings TD off the board

i dunno, man pic.twitter.com/fG6ETDbO9a

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 15, 2019

He gets in the way of both 93 and 26. Maybe you could say the collision with 93 wasn't planned, but it impacted the play. But, to me, the biggest issue was him stopping 26 - who might have been guy covering Diggs. He clearly wasn't running a route and was holding 26 back as Diggs ran across. As "blown calls" go, that wouldn't even be in my top 5 today. The roughing the passer on Chubb was probably the worst, given the situation and time left. Add in the 2-3 missed block in the backs on TDs and a slew of other awful roughing/personal foul calls and who knows what is a penalty now days. It's also amazing the me that with all the offensive PIs called today across all games, the league basically turned a blind eye to Antonio Brown clearly pushing off on his TD in Miami.

[Danny]

I could definitely see Roethlisberger retiring. Brees strikes me as a game who wouldn't want to go out like this. The big controversy losing in the NFC championship game to going out week 2 of next season against that same team.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Arles

There were four offensive PI calls in the game and two were pretty clear (Cook blocking not one, but two Packers on the TD and the Graham push off). There other two were dicey, but the Vikings could have challenged either.

I agree that it created an unfair advantage however the Pats do these same type of plays all the time and refs just look the other way. Its the fact that it wasnt anything abnormal in comparison to other pick plays and that they seem to have basically put the rule in for the extremely obvious situations as most reviews have just stayed as called. Kind of like the roughing the passer calls last year I hate anything that gives the refs the opportunities to favor the home crowd even more. The reason isnt wasnt caught in live action is Cook actually disguised it pretty well. Imagine the outrage if the NFL starts calling 10 offensive pass interference penalties against the Pats each week after watching replays. They cherry picked a huge play in the game and chose to change it. That is what frustrated me. I am sure the Packers were picking on some of their cross routes as well. EVERY team does it.

You could easily say the defense was holding him and preventing him from running his route. Its a judgment call. Not one that should be changed on replay. I would have hated it either way but the review replay on that was idiotic. 93 looked more like he was in Cooks way. And Cook isnt a professional route runner so who the hell even knows if the pick was intentional. The DB just had great position preventing him from running his route. Again it wasnt like Cook shoved him or muscled him out of the way.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by molson

If a single player isn't so important, why is it so desperately necessary to the league that that player goes to the Dolphins? What is the downside of that player ending up on Carolina, or Tennessee?

Edit:. I think it's be super exciting if a team like that, who may be a QB away, has the top one stumble into their laps when they weren't tanking. Though my preferred solution would be that proposed wheel setup, where picks are distributed evenly years ahead of time, and every team already knows their draft position going into a season, and draft order is not tied in any way to wins and losses. I know that's too radical to ever happen though.

I don't have a problem with a lottery and find it understandable why teams at least semi-tank once they seem guaranteed to lose 10+ games. I'm pushing back against the idea that teams who could easily make the playoffs with a favorable bounce or result and "all but 8 teams" should tank.

Take the Panthers for example. They look flawed, they had an ugly week 2 loss to a divisional opponent, they have one if those QB's who is in the average starter range... but especially with Brees out & no NFC South team 2-0 they're still in the divisional race. Should they tank? The history of top 3 pick QB's vs ones taken in the 10-32 range isn't all that different, and it's not like Tua is a markedly more sure thing than Herbert, Fromm, even some of the guys who are showing flashes like Eason & Burrow & could make that ascent into 1st round talk.

[NobodyHere]

I guess the NFL used to dole out the first pick by lottery to a random team. I never knew that

ETA

Originally Posted by HOF Website

Bonus Round (From 1947 through 1958, the first selection of the draft was a Bonus pick, awarded to the winner of a random draw. That club, in turn, forfeited its last-round draft choice. The winner of the Bonus pick was eliminated from future draws. The system was abolished after 1958, by which time all clubs had received a Bonus pick.)

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I guess the NFL used to dole out the first pick by lottery to a random team. I never knew that

Id love it. More conspiracy theories however it would help prevent incentive for losing which goes against what professional sports is about.

Like was mentioned earlier. 8-8 is a tough spot to be in. You arent getting a top 5 pick and you arent making the playoffs. 8-8 shouldnt put you in a worse situation than 0-16.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, I think I'm leaning more and more towards just giving each team that is out of the playoffs an equal shot and weighting every position 1-15 that way. In leagues that play more games I love the concept of teams being able to earn their way to higher draft picks once they are eliminated from the playoffs (I think that's one of MLs creations or at least something he gets behind in his articles isn't it?) but obviously that doesn't work in a 16 game schedule. Just give all the non-playoff teams equal odds and be done with it.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Arles

but I don't see the complaints on the Cook offensive PI

That is so obviously pass interference that any one who questions it should not have a job writing about professional football. The hit on 93 is fine, that type of contact happens often in bunch formations, especially on the goal line. But the second hit was clearly OPI.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I could care less about unethical if it's the NBA, or maybe even Week 16/17 where you basically toss a game so you get pick #3 instead of #8. It's just dumb in the NFL for a season, especially when there isn't some generational QB prospect sitting there.

The soundness of the strategy is a separate issue. I don't care if it's the NBA, NFL, or any other sport; purposefully throwing games goes against what sports should be about. Leagues absolutely should employ measures to make tanking less appealing, but that doesn't let teams off the hook for employing unethical methods to achieve success.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yeah, I think I'm leaning more and more towards just giving each team that is out of the playoffs an equal shot and weighting every position 1-15 that way. In leagues that play more games I love the concept of teams being able to earn their way to higher draft picks once they are eliminated from the playoffs (I think that's one of MLs creations or at least something he gets behind in his articles isn't it?) but obviously that doesn't work in a 16 game schedule. Just give all the non-playoff teams equal odds and be done with it.

I love the idea of starting the lottery odds from the middle and going down from there. So the 16th/17th best teams get the best odds, 15th/18th get next best and so on until the 1st/32nd teams get the worst odds.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Clearly people have forgotten how the NFL was the one who started the whole "parity" thing.

Their ideal world is a league where every team goes 8-8, has been for at least pushing 40 years now.

[QuikSand]

I know anti-tanking is trending, but...

The NFL is currently the league that makes it by far the most viable to turn your team around quickly. Every year there seems to be at least a team or two who were picking in the top handful that spring due to a rotten record, and who end up playing on the second weekend of the playoffs. Between the salary cap (one that actually works as designed, forcing legitimately valuable players to appear in free agency) and the variability of the rookie draft (where half of the top picks don't pan out, and players can arise to legitimacy from anywhere)... more NFL teams have legitimate "hope" each new season than, I think, in any other sport... and it doesn't even seem close.

The pro-parity notions of the NFL are, without a doubt, part of its massive popularity over the years.

[JPhillips]

That's what I don't understand with the Dolphins. In the NFL good management is never more than three years away from competing for a championship. Trading young, talented players makes no sense even if you're angling for a top draft pick.

When I went back and looked at top five picks, very few were difference makers on a Super Bowl team. Getting the first pick, even a first pick QB, isn't much of an odds booster. An empty cupboard Dolphins team with Tua is still unlikely to ever get to the Super Bowl.

[stevew]

I think Rudolph is going to be competent. Assuming this, Big Ben has played his last snap for the Steelers.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That's what I don't understand with the Dolphins. In the NFL good management is never more than three years away from competing for a championship. Trading young, talented players makes no sense even if you're angling for a top draft pick.

When I went back and looked at top five picks, very few were difference makers on a Super Bowl team. Getting the first pick, even a first pick QB, isn't much of an odds booster. An empty cupboard Dolphins team with Tua is still unlikely to ever get to the Super Bowl.

Except I don't think Tua is the plan. I think they keep building the lines in 2020 and grab Lawrence in 2021.

And the deal for Tunsil was too good to pass up.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Izulde

Except I don't think Tua is the plan. I think they keep building the lines in 2020 and grab Lawrence in 2021.

And the deal for Tunsil was too good to pass up.

What? So the plan is to suck for 2 years? Count me out.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

What? So the plan is to suck for 2 years? Count me out.

Not just suck for at least 2 years, historically suck for 2 more years, draft moar linemen better than the really good one you just traded away and be in position to draft the obvious #1 overall pick. Genius plan.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Please Lort, please let Jacksonville trade Ramsey to the Dolphins.

The LOLz are there to be had.

[NobodyHere]

Meet the Patriots newest Cornerback!

Jaguars star CB Jalen Ramsey requests trade - NFL.com

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Please Lort, please let Jacksonville trade Ramsey to the Dolphins.

The LOLz are there to be had.

This would make my year.

[bhlloy]

Even though I hate most of those roughing the passer penalties, that’s pretty much the poster child for why you don’t want large defensive players landing on QBs after they’ve thrown the ball.

The Dolphins - Jets game could be the all time futility bowl at this rate.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Clearly people have forgotten how the NFL was the one who started the whole "parity" thing.

Their ideal world is a league where every team goes 8-8, has been for at least pushing 40 years now.

I don't think parity is helped by awarding the top draft prize to whatever team most aggressively tanks for it. They're making a conscious choice to be that bad due to the prize awarded, not because they organically need the most help.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by stevew

I think Rudolph is going to be competent. Assuming this, Big Ben has played his last snap for the Steelers.

Just watched the Steelers game and thought Rudolph looked good.

[stevew]

Jets should go full wildcat the rest of the game.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Dolphins will go 0-16 (full blown team mutiny)

They still have to play the Jets twice... feel bad for anyone spending money for those games.

[stevew]

Steelers got Minkah Fitzpatrick for a first. Interesting decision. I like it assuming we don’t go 4-12

[bhlloy]

Hey, Adam Gase. If you are an offensive genius, you might want to have a game plan that doesn’t involve Myles Garrett going unblocked. Just a thought.

[Lathum]

I’m at the jets game. They are horrible.

[Honolulu_Blue]

You’re 0-2. You just lost your starting QB for the season, so you go ahead and trade your first round pick for a safety? Okay...

As for the Dolphins, we are witnessing first hand just what it looks like, week by painful week, when you start a new game in career or GM mode with the worst team, trade for as many picks as possible, and then sim the first season. Not. Pretty.

[BishopMVP]

Who's left on the Dolphins roster worth trading for (assuming rookies are off limits, though who even knows?) Xavien Howard, maybe one of the WR's, Pats need a young TE so maybe we should see if Gesicki or Durham Smythe are available.

Interesting play by the Steelers. I like Fitzpatrick, but man, they're already 0-2 and even though Rudolph looked as good as Big Ben has lately a new QB is far from the only problem there. Minkah undoubtedly better than some of their safeties, but it seemed more like wide open guys and miscommunication in the secondary so I'm not sure how much adding a new starter int he middle of the field midseason will help.

[bhlloy]

9th best coverage grade in the league and lowest pass completion percentage when targeted, it's probably closer than it looks. The timing is curious after they lost Roethlisberger but still, it's probably at least a 5 win team even with Rudolph and is it a lock that you are going to find a better player with the 10th or 12th overall pick?

There's not really a playbook for this, I can't think of a single team who has tanked so blatantly that they are trading away first rounders from the last couple of seasons who have met or exceeded expectations. The Steelers probably aren't the perfect situation (at least not now) but still, you can understand why teams are willing to take the good young player who has shown they are very unlikely to be a bust.

[RendeR]

I like the Pittsburgh move. AS much as it pains me to say so. Ben is done, I doubt he returns from this at his age and body condition. The man's been abused for years now.

The trade works because their biggest issue right now is the complete inability to even slow anyone down.

Rudolph will be a quality QB, he's no Ben, but he will be the starter for awhile. He's got talent.


Fuck Shitsburgh.


There, I said it.