2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Jas_lov]

I can barely watch this. Trump is awful.

[tarcone]

Jeez, sounds like a couple old drunk dudes arguing about shit at a bar.

[Atocep]

This is unwatchable

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Oh boy. Joe is already looking like he is not sure what he is talking about.

He needs an ear piece with someone telling him what to say.

This isn't even a little true.

I don't care who you are, if Trump was constantly interrupting you it would be hard to make a point.

[Atocep]

Biden is doing fine. It's impossible to debate someone that doesn't want to debate. Trump isn't prepared and doesn't want to debate.

[Jas_lov]

Would you shut up man. What a train wreck.

[kingfc22]

Just mute his fucking mic

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This isn't even a little true.

I don't care who you are, if Trump was constantly interrupting you it would be hard to make a point.

I was commenting on his opening question before Trump started constantly interrupting him.

He was stumbling over facts and didnt seem like he was sure of what he wanted to say.

I actually think he is doing better now that Trump keeps interrupting him. Seems like Joe is settling in and getting pissed.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I was commenting on his opening question before Trump started constantly interrupting him.

He was stumbling over facts and didnt seem like he was sure of what he wanted to say.

I actually think he is doing better now that Trump keeps interrupting him. Seems like Joe is settling in and getting pissed.

yeah, he was a bit tentative, but he is human and entitled to be a bit nervous. He also knew he was gonna get interrupted at some point.

[Atocep]

Biden went there with the bleach.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Biden went there with the bleach.

brilliant

[Lathum]

These "smart" jabs from Trump are disgusting and so low brow and I am glad Joe didn't get sucked in.

What's next, Trump going to say his dad could beat up Bidens dad?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

These "smart" jabs from Trump are disgusting and so low brow and I am glad Joe didn't get sucked in.

What's next, Trump going to say his dad could beat up Bidens dad?

Questioning Trump's intelligence is the best way to get him riled up.

[Edward64]

Joe did look off in the first 15 min segment. Did better in the second segment and seems to be doing fine now so far but IMO not aggressive enough.

For the next debate, Biden should only agree to do it if moderator has ability to mute mics.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Biden went there with the bleach.

He should have also mentioned hydroxychloroquine.

[ISiddiqui]

Well that was a shit show. I think Biden did really well when he was able to speak (Trump's plan, I'm sure, to not debate). Trump is down by 10 points - I don't think he's making any of that up

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[GrantDawg]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/stat...584051201?s=19

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[Brian Swartz]

Agree in general, but where does this 10-point gap figure come from? RCP, 538, etc. say 6-7.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well that was a shit show. I think Biden did really well when he was able to speak (Trump's plan, I'm sure, to not debate). Trump is down by 10 points - I don't think he's making any of that up

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

It sure was and I really don't know how anyone short of Obama could handle Trump on this stage. You could tell Joe got flustered at times.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

It sure was and I really don't know how anyone short of Obama could handle Trump on this stage. You could tell Joe got flustered at times.

It was amazing how much Trump looked like he wanted to debate Sanders. I wonder if he realized all the "You're going to lose the far left for that" comments helped Biden with independents?

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It was amazing how much Trump looked like he wanted to debate Sanders. I wonder if he realized all the "You're going to lose the far left for that" comments helped Biden with independents?

I have no numbers to go by, just my bubble (far left), but it seems to me that there are a lot of people on the "far left" who are likely to stay home or vote third party because they see Biden as just another corrupt Democrat. It plays to Trump's advantage to point that out.

I imagine "independent moderates" have largely already made up their minds.

The Myth of the Undecided Voter

The Moderate Middle is a Myth

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Front Office Midget

I have no numbers to go by, just my bubble (far left), but it seems to me that there are a lot of people on the "far left" who are likely to stay home or vote third party because they see Biden as just another corrupt Democrat. It plays to Trump's advantage to point that out.

I imagine "independent moderates" have largely already made up their minds.

The Myth of the Undecided Voter

The Moderate Middle is a Myth

Hmm, the far left people I am friends with will be voting for Biden to oppose Trump even if they do not personally really like Biden. I think most will still go Biden due to how opposed far left are to trump

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Front Office Midget

I imagine "independent moderates" have largely already made up their minds.

Frank Luntz has done a lot of fine work in a distinguished career, but the linked article in '16 is an example of him doing what a lot of analysts did; underestimating just how much things were different than they have been historically for that cycle.

As someone who has listened to them for a quarter-century now, the candidate that is most engaging and least offensive is the candidate who wins this essential bloc—and therefore the election. They’ll tell you, and tell themselves, that they’re voting for the candidate with the best ideas. But they’re really voting for the one who they believe is most “on their side.” In the end, subtlety will sway more undecided voters than the sledgehammer.

This is his conclusion, and it is the opposite of what actually happened. The majority of late-breaking undecideds went to Trump, who is nobody's idea of least offensive. I think he would have been right in any election for the 20-30 years previous, but things have changed.

[GrantDawg]

Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, did a live panel with 17 undecided votes from different states. Let's say that Trump didn't come off well.

in Frank Luntz's focus group, Ruthie from PA (upper right corner) said she was undecided coming into tonight..... but now likes Biden b/c Trump was behaving like a "crackhead" and made the debate impossible to watch pic.twitter.com/NjgvWvnTM9

— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) September 30, 2020

[albionmoonlight]

Apparently a Telemundo twitter poll (totally unscientific from what I can tell) said that Trump won the debate 66% to 33%. I am seeing a somewhat coordinated effort to pump up that "poll" to show that Trump won among Hispanics.

If that's all they got, then it went worse for Trump than I thought.

[albionmoonlight]

It appears that Trump's strategy isn't to try to "win" the debates.

He wants to depress turnout by bringing Biden and the viewers down into the mud with him and increasing cynicism and "bothsides"-ism.

He wants to depress turnout by refusing to say that he'll accept the election results (people are less likely to vote when they think it won't matter).

And he wants to keep his Proud Boys on "standby" in case the election is close enough for his coup to have a chance.

So I think that his goals are deeply Unamerican. But I also think that he accomplished them.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: And I think that all of this is a much harder path to him winning than simply not being the shittiest President of our lifetimes.

Much like he could have simply invested his inheritance in an S&P index fund and just gone to the beach and be much richer than he is right now, he could have simply appointed decent people to his cabinet and let them and Pence and Congress run the country while he hung out at Mar-A-Lago, and he'd be much more likely to be legitimately reelected than he is right now.

[QuikSand]

I'll take a now contrarian opinion, and say that the "stand down, stand by" comment was not inciteful. It was him just blurting out phrases he thought fit the moment.

I you think he very carefully chose those words to message something very specific, and that the notion of giving a command was a clever, veiled, strategic communication - I think you're giving him too much credit.

It makes for good copy, and for good clickbait, to claim that he all but offered a "heil" salute to the SS... but I didn't hear/see that, myself.

Now, that he wasn't quick to denounce white supremacy or those groups - I was offended by his evasiveness there. And his tactic of whataboutism to cover up his racist tendencies and followers, I am perpetually offended by that.

But this exact wording, I think it just came out, and hit the ear wrong.

(You can be sure that a comparable mini-blunder by Biden would be assailed similarly by the right)

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

He wants to depress turnout by bringing Biden and the viewers down into the mud with him and increasing cynicism and "bothsides"-ism.

I think there's a more conventional election strategy that's hard to separate from this - he recognizes that he won last time, in no small part, by helping to frame the decision as being about his opponent.

Right now, the default framing of this election (or with any incumbent, nearly always) is that the election is about the incumbent. He wants/needs to change that. So, all the mudslinging and name-calling is a means to try to at least pivot the discussion toward "him or him?" rather than "four more years?"

I don't think he aced that - but the barrage of Hunter Biden and spying conspiracies and so forth we started to see last night and will surely endure in the weeks ahead can be reasonably tied to that tried and true formula.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'll take a now contrarian opinion, and say that the "stand down, stand by" comment was not inciteful. It was him just blurting out phrases he thought fit the moment.

I you think he very carefully chose those words to message something very specific, and that the notion of giving a command was a clever, veiled, strategic communication - I think you're giving him too much credit.

It makes for good copy, and for good clickbait, to claim that he all but offered a "heil" salute to the SS... but I didn't hear/see that, myself.

Now, that he wasn't quick to denounce white supremacy or those groups - I was offended by his evasiveness there. And his tactic of whataboutism to cover up his racist tendencies and followers, I am perpetually offended by that.

But this exact wording, I think it just came out, and hit the ear wrong.

(You can be sure that a comparable mini-blunder by Biden would be assailed similarly by the right)

But Trump is such a fool that he won't be able to admit that and mitigate the damage. By the weekend the entire GOP will be explaining how the Proud Boys are primarily concerned with voter fraud and not white supremacy. He may even have a cabinet meeting so Ben Carson can say he supports the Proud Boys.

[QuikSand]

I agree with that, and no of course he won't come out and say it was just poor phrasing. He lacks that gear entirely.

[JPhillips]

Biden wasn't great, and a good candidate would have torched him, but you go to the election with the candidate you have. If I were to make a list of the top five topics coming out of the debate, I'm not sure anything Biden said or did would make the list. Trump's superpower is his ability to make everything about him, but it's also his kryptonite. The more the campaign is about him, the more likely he is to lose.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'll take a now contrarian opinion, and say that the "stand down, stand by" comment was not inciteful. It was him just blurting out phrases he thought fit the moment.

OK. I can see that.

I still am really troubled by the fact that he clearly thinks that he can give them orders. Whether he is telling them to "stand by for more orders" or "stand down and go home," the fact that he's talking to them like their leader is a Holy Shit moment.

[ISiddiqui]

Was talking with a friend this morning and we were amazed that Biden didn't lose his temper after getting interrupted 5000+ times. I am assuming Trump wanted him to do that (Biden tends to make gaffes when he gets heated), but it didn't work. Almost seemed superhuman control by Biden.

[Atocep]

After a night to sleep on this the things that stuck out to me were:

*Trump's knowledge of issues is horrible and it must be nearly impossible to get anything done in Oval office meetings. He couldn't comprehend that he hadn't released a comprehensive health care plan and kept insisting he had by removing the individual mandate on the ACA.

*Trump doesn't understand what climate change is (not a surprise) . He failed to coherently answer any questions regarding it and remain on topic.

*Trump genuinely was thrown off and got upset when Biden took a shot at his intelligence.

*The continued attacks on mail in voting may end up backfiring as the NYT showed Republicans may be more likely than Dems to vote by mail in this election.

*Biden wasn't great by any stretch but did enough that he probably gets a small bump from this debate. I think by the end of these 3 debates we'll be right back where we started though.

*I'm not sure I can stomach 2 more of these. I'm sure that goes for a lot of people and that's not what Trump needs.

[Bee]

I watched the whole thing. It really was like a train wreck that you couldn't look away from. It was interesting to watch Trump's face go from orange to red multiple times. I was expecting him to keel over from a heart attack at any second.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I still am really troubled by the fact that he clearly thinks that he can give them orders. Whether he is telling them to "stand by for more orders" or "stand down and go home," the fact that he's talking to them like their leader is a Holy Shit moment.

He talks to everybody that way though. Enemy of the people and such. It doesn't appear to me that he thinks he has more right to instruct the proud boys than he does to instruct Congress or the media or ... A generalized lack of self-awareness and humility is what it looks like to me.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

*Biden wasn't great by any stretch but did enough that he probably gets a small bump from this debate. I think by the end of these 3 debates we'll be right back where we started though.

I don't think Biden lost any votes but I agree his performance wasn't great. The 2 negatives that stuck out to me were overuse of the term "lying, lies" and his smile/grin/smirk etc.

For the first, he should have used "confused, mistaken, doesn't know what he is talking about, surrounded by yes men, is that what Putin asked you to do etc."

Instead of smile/grin/smirk, he should have shown consistent intensity, anger etc. against the school yard bully.

*I'm not sure I can stomach 2 more of these. I'm sure that goes for a lot of people and that's not what Trump needs.

I agree. Unless they agree on additional rules to eliminate the incessant interruptions, I don't see why Biden needs to do another one of these. I am interested in Pence-Harris debate.

[Edward64]

An analysis & grading of each segment.

Who won the presidential debate? Experts grade Trump-Biden mess

[booradley]

I'm so embarrassed for our country right now. That wasn't a debate - it sounded more like an argument in a nursing home. I want the dignity of the office restored, but instead I have to choose who will do the least damage. That's Biden.

On the plus side, Biden's vision for eliminating our dependence on fossil fuels warmed me to him. At least I can point to that when I cast my vote, rather than shrugging my shoulders and saying "Well, at least he's not Trump."

[Brian Swartz]

That's pretty much where I am as well, esp. vis a vis fossil fuels. I won't be enthusiastic at all about voting for Biden, but he's a non-embarassment who is trying to do the occasional good thing amidst the raft of IMO bad ideas. In other words, in these times we should pin a medal on him and consider expanding Mount Rushmore.

[Atocep]

If the Post saw it as a draw that's not good for the GOP. I wonder how many vulnerable members of congress are shaking their heads this morning knowing they'll be explaining white Nationalism within their party from now until the election.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by booradley

I'm so embarrassed for our country right now. That wasn't a debate - it sounded more like an argument in a nursing home.

That is precisely the goal of an authoritarian. You already have me, this guy is a joke, and nothing will ever be better than you have it now. It's a very abusive mindset. It's why women stay with men who hurt them.

[Jas_lov]

The next debate will be townhall format so hopefully more watchable with voters asking questions. That probably favors Biden since he can actually show empathy towards other humans.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

The next debate will be townhall format so hopefully more watchable with voters asking questions. That probably favors Biden since he can actually show empathy towards other humans.

That's a good point. Trump may still interrupt some but not near as much as last night. I'd still insist on moderators being able to turn off mics.

[Kodos]

A Zoom debate where the guy not talking is always muted would be perfect.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

If the Post saw it as a draw that's not good for the GOP. I wonder how many vulnerable members of congress are shaking their heads this morning knowing they'll be explaining white Nationalism within their party from now until the election.

No need to. Race really isn't a big issue to Republican voters.

Important issues in the 2020 election | Pew Research Center

There are stark differences in how registered voters who support Donald Trump and Joe Biden view the importance of these issues. In fact, of 12 issues included, the only ones that comparable shares of Biden supporters and Trump supporters view as very important are foreign policy and Supreme Court appointments.

For Trump supporters, the economy (88%) and violent crime (74%) are the most salient issues. Roughly six-in-ten Trump supporters cite immigration (61%), gun policy (60%) and foreign policy (57%) as very important to their vote.

By contrast, the largest shares of Biden supporters view health care (84%) and the coronavirus outbreak (82%) as very important. A sizable majority also rates racial and ethnic inequality as important to their vote (76%).

[PilotMan]

No shocker, that's what those relative news organizations have been talking about non stop.

[Atocep]

I don't think it matters that it's not a big issue with Republican voters. The fact is those congressmen are going to have to answer uncomfortable questions that take the focus off of the issues they want to talk about. Susan Collins and Cory Gardner are going to be answering less questions about the Economy and instead will be explaining whether they support their white nationalist president.

[JPhillips]

To be fair, I'm certain Collins is concerned.