Philip Rivers: Pro Football Hall of Famer?

[Carman Bulldog]

With Rivers announcing his retirement, lets discuss whether he makes it into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

From a purely regular season statistical performance, he makes a good case. Fifth all-time in pass yards and passing touchdowns, which includes finishing first in each category once in separate seasons. I don't really care for Pro Bowls as a metric, but he did make eight of them.

On the Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame metric, he ranks 12th among quarterbacks. The only QB's that are not in the Hall of Fame that are ahead of him are Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, all sure-fire Hall-of-Famers. Rivers is currently ahead of Roethlisberger and Eli Manning based on their metrics.

The case against includes the fact that not only has he never won a Super Bowl, he never even made it past the AFC Championship. One AFC title game appearance in 15 seasons as a starter, including a 5-7 playoff record, doesn't scream Hall-of-Famer. He also never won any major awards, such as an MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, etc. Furthermore, he was never even named to an AP or PFWA All-Pro team (although made two Pro Football Focus All-Pro teams).

Football is a team sport and strictly from a regular season numbers perspective, Rivers grades out above his draft class contemporaries. But the two Super Bowls that Eli and Roethlisberger each have are really hard to ignore when discussing the three of them. Is there room in the Hall for all three? If not, which deserve to go in?

Discuss.

[bhlloy]

Never has their been a QB who put up so many stats either after putting his team in a hole too big to come back from or blew it with the game on the line.

I think he’ll get in for the reasons you mention but as a casual Chargers fan, he doesn’t make it for me.

[Kodos]

He was never the best QB in the league. Very good, but not HOF worthy.

[JediKooter]

Rivers should definitely be in. First ballot, more than likely not though. I don't think winning or even getting to a Super Bowl should ever be one of the qualifiers for a player to make it to the Hall of Fame. Too many other things outside that players control have to happen and go in the teams favor to make it to the championship game, let alone win it. Rivers didn't fumble the interception in that playoff game against the Patriots or miss a field goal against the Jets in the rain.

[Thomkal]

He's a toughie, his playoff lack of success makes it hard to say he belongs in the Hall. If just his regular season stats put him in the ranks of those who currently in the Hall, not sure its right either to say he doesn't belong either. So not first ballot I guess, but eventually when there's not a strong class at QB looking to get in, then I'm fine with him getting in,

[BYU 14]

I look at Rivers in very much the same vein as Don Sutton to use a Baseball example. Sutton was never the best pitcher in the league, had only one 20 win season in 23 years, but was always a reliable 15-17 win, 220+ inning guy. In the post season he was 6-4 3.68 ERA, (above his regular season career ERA) but only 2-3 5.26 ERA in the series. So hardly a big game pitcher, but one that was always consistent and gave you a solid season.

[larrymcg421]

If we go by advance stats, Rivers has a better case than Stafford. Here are their yearly rankings on Football Outsiders...

Rivers: 6, 16, 3, 2, 2, 7, 22, 2, 9, 8, 17, 2, 3, 13

Stafford: 45, 29, 5, 6, 12, 15, 9, 9, 10, 20, 9

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Rivers should definitely be in. First ballot, more than likely not though. I don't think winning or even getting to a Super Bowl should ever be one of the qualifiers for a player to make it to the Hall of Fame.

I agree. Imagine if Terry Bradshaw had been drafted by the New Orleans Saints and Archie Manning drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

[molson]

Looking at the list of NFL HOF QBs - they're a lot more selective than I thought. There's only 26. Rivers is not at that level. Every starting QB puts up big numbers now. He was never one of the best.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

He was never the best QB in the league. Very good, but not HOF worthy.

Is this seriously your criteria?

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I agree. Imagine if Terry Bradshaw had been drafted by the New Orleans Saints and Archie Manning drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Very good point! Or if the chargers had a defense like the Steelers did back then.

[molson]

Should the Hall of Fame be about "what if" speculation? Estimating what a guy would have accomplished if he was more lucky?

I feel like in sports, thems the breaks. A Hall of Fame QB should either have won Super Bowls or been the best in the league. Looking at the list, I think everyone fits that criteria.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is this seriously your criteria?

Sorry, but yeah. A Hall of Fame QB should have been the best QB in the league at some point in their career. Or even the best in their conference. He never was. He was always in the top ten active QBs. I don’t think anyone was afraid to play against him. He had a really nice career, put up some numbers, and made a lot of money. Most of us should be so lucky.

[BishopMVP]

Phillip Rivers vs Eli Manning is a fascinating litmus test. I think Rivers was the better QB, but Eli deserves to be in the Hall of Fame more... (though I won't be upset if either get in or don't).

I feel like to make a Hall of Fame you need to have a baseline of talent/production, but that then the story of the sport would also be missing something if you weren't remembered. In 2030 you can't tell the story of 2000-2020 without mentioning Eli, but Rivers is a footnote you can gloss over, or someone brings up and you go "oh yeah, that guy was pretty good too." That's not HoF quality in my book.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Is this seriously your criteria?

I also think that this should weigh fairly heavily, more so than it presently does. Of course, being the best player at his position at one time must be combined with the longevity of being at or near the best for several other seasons.

For instance, Peyton, Brady and Rogers were at times undoubtedly the best quarterbacks in the game. Then you move to a guy like Drew Brees, who despite not winning an MVP, had a few seasons where it could be argued that he was the best quarterback in the game. Conversely, simply having a single season where you are at or near the best is not sufficient. So in my book, a guy like Cam Newton doesn't automatically get in just because of one MVP season.

I just don't think a case can be made that Rivers (or Roethlisberger or Eli) was ever the best quarterback in the NFL in any single season, or even say cumulatively the best over a few seasons.

[QuikSand]

Hall of pretty good for a rather long time. We can erect his bust next to Tim Brown right after we properly evict him from the other Hall.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Kodos

He was never the best QB in the league. Very good, but not HOF worthy.

I'd even loosen up this standard to "in the conversation as maybe the best" or something like that. But yes, this is what I have in mind, too, and Rivers was never number one, and probably never even in such a conversation.

Good player. Stayed healthy. Played a long time. Cool.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

I also think that this should weigh fairly heavily, more so than it presently does. Of course, being the best player at his position at one time must be combined with the longevity of being at or near the best for several other seasons.

For instance, Peyton, Brady and Rogers were at times undoubtedly the best quarterbacks in the game. Then you move to a guy like Drew Brees, who despite not winning an MVP, had a few seasons where it could be argued that he was the best quarterback in the game. Conversely, simply having a single season where you are at or near the best is not sufficient. So in my book, a guy like Cam Newton doesn't automatically get in just because of one MVP season.

I just don't think a case can be made that Rivers (or Roethlisberger or Eli) was ever the best quarterback in the NFL in any single season, or even say cumulatively the best over a few seasons.

co-sign

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think that he should make it for the reasons people here have outlined.

I don't think that he will make it b/c he does not strike me as the type to really care that much about it and be running power plays with the media behind the scenes to push himself in.

[albionmoonlight]

Contrast with Eli or Roethlisberger who I also think do not belong but who I think will make it because they have large sports media markets behind them with media members who will keep pushing until they are in.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Contrast with Eli or Roethlisberger who I also think do not belong but who I think will make it because they have large sports media markets behind them with media members who will keep pushing until they are in.

well. that and super bowl wins.

[RainMaker]

If this was baseball, no. But football puts in a lot of people and he definitely is worthy based on their prior criteria.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If this was baseball, no. But football puts in a lot of people and he definitely is worthy based on their prior criteria.

Who would he be compared to in baseball. It is interesting.

Maybe a Nick Markakis?

[RainMaker]

I was thinking Mark Buehrle although he has a ring. Just a consistently good player for a long time but never elite. Maybe Fred McGriff?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I was thinking Mark Buehrle although he has a ring. Just a consistently good player for a long time but never elite. Maybe Fred McGriff?

Tim Salmon? Jim Edmonds?

Lots of guys fit the profile.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Contrast with Eli or Roethlisberger who I also think do not belong but who I think will make it because they have large sports media markets behind them with media members who will keep pushing until they are in.

I'm a Steelers' fan, but not so much a Roethlisberger fan (I would have been fine getting rid of him when he got in trouble way back when), but I'm surprised to hear that there is much of a case against him. He has huge career numbers, two Super Bowl wins (and another appearance), longevity, top ten in career wins and winning percentage, and was pretty clutch (4th most 4th quarter comebacks all-time behind Brady, Manning, and Brees).

I don't think he's had a better career than Brady, Manning, Brees, or Rodgers, but he seems to check all the boxes (aside from character for the first half of his career). I'd be real surprised if he isn't a 1st ballot guy.

[Kodos]

Yeah, I'd give him a much better shot than Rivers.

[Toddzilla]

When the voters get in the room to decide, someone is gonna show a powerpoint that has the all-time QB leaders in a bunch of categories. Philip Rivers is going to be top 5 or top 10 in most of them. and he's won just as many super bowls as Dan Marino. I think he's gonna breeze in.

Edited to add that he started 252 games in a row, never missing a start. NEVER. MISSED. A. START.

[Vegas Vic]

Interesting comments on both sides of the argument. For some, it seems that championships or lack thereof are one of the primary factors. Fair enough, but a significant portion of winning championships is dependent on talent level of your teammates. How many championships would Tom Brady have won with the Cleveland Browns?

As for Rivers, the guy is a eight-time Pro Bowler, was consistently among the league leaders in production, and never missed a start in 252 games. He tore his ACL in the 2007 playoffs, still beat Peyton Manning and started next week in a loss to the Patriots. In fact, the guy never missed a game due to injury or illness since the eighth grade (and yes, I understand that fact isn't germane to his HOF qualifications).

He was never the best in any given year, but the numbers he put up in his career (5th all-time in passing yards, passing TD's and completions) should be more than sufficient to secure his inclusion in the HOF.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Interesting comments on both sides of the argument. For some, it seems that championships or lack thereof are one of the primary factors. Fair enough, but a significant portion of winning championships is dependent on talent level of your teammates. How many championships would Tom Brady have won with the Cleveland Browns?

As for Rivers, the guy is a eight-time Pro Bowler, was consistently among the league leaders in production, and never missed a start in 252 games. He tore his ACL in the 2007 playoffs, still beat Peyton Manning and started next week in a loss to the Patriots. In fact, the guy never missed a game due to injury or illness since the eighth grade (and yes, I understand that fact isn't germane to his HOF qualifications).

He was never the best in any given year, but the numbers he put up in his career (5th all-time in passing yards, passing TD's and completions) should be more than sufficient to secure his inclusion in the HOF.

Agreed with all this.

I just don’t like the “never the best at their position” argument. I think it would be ridiculous for any single writer to not vote for Drew Brees and he was long among the best, but if we were doing a championship belt for best NFL QBs from the 80s to present, I would think it would go something like: Montana - Young - Favre/Elway - Warner - Manning - Brady/Manning - (maybe Brees somewhere in here?) -Brady/Rodgers - Mahomes. All of those QBs have MVPs except Brees and there are also some random MVPs sprinkled in between (Boomer, Newton, Gannon, McNair, Ryan, Jackson).

I think any QB of this era, even Rodgers and Brees (who are easily top 10 and good arguments to be closer to the top than bottom), fall well short of Brady and Manning.

[BishopMVP]

As much as I dislike him personally, I think Roethlisberger is also clearly in. Not entirely sure what separates him in my mind from Rivers (who has the stats) or Eli (who has the rings), but while I agree Ben was never the top QB in my mind he still hits the threshold.

[chesapeake]

At the risk of bringing down the wrath of the board, Rivers lives in the Boomer Esiason/Dave Krieg place in football history for me. Yes, Dave Krieg. When those two retired in the late '90's, they were in roughly the same place on the all-time stat lists as Rivers is now. They had their successes and, due to longevity and changing eras, had their stats. But they never won the big one and they were substantially outshone by their better and more accomplished contemporaries--Marino, Elway, and Montana. This is why I am a "no" vote for Rivers.

[MIJB#19]

Something to consider: the peak era of the Chargers franchise was 2004-2009, the QB of service was Phillip Rivers. Their playoffs success in those seasons wasn't impressive: lost in WC round, missed playoffs, lost in AFC semi's, lost in AFC final, lost in AFC semi's, lost in AFC semi's. That was a team that had LaDainain Tomlinson and Antonio Gates as Rivers' main support cast.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

As for Rivers, the guy is a eight-time Pro Bowler,

But of those 8 Pro Bowls he managed
Pro Football Weekly: 0 awards
Pro Football Focus: 1x 1st place QB (2009), 1x 2nd place QB (2013)
AP: 0 awards
Pro Football Writers: 0 awards
Sporting News: 0 awards

By the latter half of his career, as many as 11 QBs were named "All Pros" (due to the large number that skip the game)

[JonInMiddleGA]

The pro football reference HoF monitor has some interesting ways to look at him next to other candidates and other HoF QBs

-- He's literally the first guy rated after Average HoF QB

-- Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are 2 & 3 spots below him

-- Elway and Staubach are the two closest HOFers to him that have zero AP #1 QB nods, but they have 2 titles each. The only other since 1955 is Aikman with 3 titles.

-- Warren Moon is the nearest (and only) HOFer that has zero AP #1 nods AND zero titles

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

-- Warren Moon is the nearest (and only) HOFer that has zero AP #1 nods AND zero titles

I might be wrong about this, but doesn't Moon's CFL Career also "count" for HOF purposes b/c it is technically the Pro Football Hall of Fame and not the NFL Hall of Fame?

I remember hearing that a long time ago, but I could easily be misremembering.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Phillip Rivers vs Eli Manning is a fascinating litmus test. I think Rivers was the better QB, but Eli deserves to be in the Hall of Fame more... (though I won't be upset if either get in or don't).

I went looking for this sort of comment. IMO, the only unjust outcome is for Eli to get in and Rivers not to. The high counting stats are great, and I'd have no gripe if Rivers made the HOF based on that. I feel more strongly that Eli oopsing his way into 2 SB wins is not a sufficient HOF threshold for an otherwise very average QB.

[RainMaker]

What would the baseball equivalent of Eli be?

Edit: Joe Carter?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

If we go by advance stats, Rivers has a better case than Stafford. Here are their yearly rankings on Football Outsiders...

Rivers: 6, 16, 3, 2, 2, 7, 22, 2, 9, 8, 17, 2, 3, 13

Stafford: 45, 29, 5, 6, 12, 15, 9, 9, 10, 20, 9

Adding some of the othe people we're talking about...

Eli: 32, 9, 13, 40, 8, 10, 15, 8, 10, 42, 11, 18, 20, 23, 22

Roethlishberger: 11, 7, 10, 11, 26, 8, 7, 9, 9, 11, 1, 5, 8, 5, 5

Ryan: 7, 13, 5, 6, 5, 4, 7, 19, 1, 7, 4, 14

Eli looks really bad here.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I went looking for this sort of comment. IMO, the only unjust outcome is for Eli to get in and Rivers not to. The high counting stats are great, and I'd have no gripe if Rivers made the HOF based on that. I feel more strongly that Eli oopsing his way into 2 SB wins is not a sufficient HOF threshold for an otherwise very average QB.

Laughable comment.

[Glengoyne]

He might get in, but this isn't the hall of the pretty good.

[Glengoyne]

Odd that Roethlisberger and Brees come up. I think Brees is a sure thing and Ben is likely. I just can't make the case for Rivers, although I would rather root for his success over either of these other two.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Something to consider: the peak era of the Chargers franchise was 2004-2009, the QB of service was Phillip Rivers. Their playoffs success in those seasons wasn't impressive: lost in WC round, missed playoffs, lost in AFC semi's, lost in AFC final, lost in AFC semi's, lost in AFC semi's. That was a team that had LaDainain Tomlinson and Antonio Gates as Rivers' main support cast.

And Junior Seau on defense.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Something to consider: the peak era of the Chargers franchise was 2004-2009, the QB of service was Phillip Rivers. Their playoffs success in those seasons wasn't impressive: lost in WC round, missed playoffs, lost in AFC semi's, lost in AFC final, lost in AFC semi's, lost in AFC semi's. That was a team that had LaDainain Tomlinson and Antonio Gates as Rivers' main support cast.

Yeah this is my position as well. The Chargers should have won a SB in those years and outside of one year Rivers was the main reason they went out. In 09 they went 13-3 and then lost to Mark freaking Sanchez because Rivers had a horrible game and threw picks on back to back possessions late in the game.

This isn't Dan Marino who basically never had the team around him for his entire career. Those Chargers teams were legitimate contenders.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Laughable comment.

Shucks, I was specifically hoping for your approval. /s

To be more nuanced, his SB years were 9- and 10-win teams. He led the league in INTs in 2007. The majority of the 8 playoff wins (the only playoff wins of his career, FWIW) in the 2 SB runs were by 4 points or less. He sure could lead a fourth-quarter drive; kudos.

Winning the SB is great and certainly burnishes a reputation (why we're talking about him), but it's at least as telling to me that winning 2 SBs 4 years apart didn't create any real talk about a Giants dynasty--it was a playoff-caliber team that got hot twice. By comparison, there was a lot of talk about the late-00s Chargers being one of the league's best teams that just couldn't get it done in the playoffs, yada yada.

I think this is a microcosm of the everlasting debate in American sports between consistent, high-level seasons and playoff success (more of a crapshoot, simply probabilistically speaking).

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Odd that Roethlisberger and Brees come up. I think Brees is a sure thing and Ben is likely. I just can't make the case for Rivers, although I would rather root for his success over either of these other two.

It's not odd at all, kind of inevitable even.
The Chargers dumped Brees in favor of Rivers, while Roethlisberger (just like Eli Manning) is from the same draft class as Rivers.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Shucks, I was specifically hoping for your approval. /s

To be more nuanced, his SB years were 9- and 10-win teams. He led the league in INTs in 2007. The majority of the 8 playoff wins (the only playoff wins of his career, FWIW) in the 2 SB runs were by 4 points or less. He sure could lead a fourth-quarter drive; kudos.

Winning the SB is great and certainly burnishes a reputation (why we're talking about him), but it's at least as telling to me that winning 2 SBs 4 years apart didn't create any real talk about a Giants dynasty--it was a playoff-caliber team that got hot twice. By comparison, there was a lot of talk about the late-00s Chargers being one of the league's best teams that just couldn't get it done in the playoffs, yada yada.

I think this is a microcosm of the everlasting debate in American sports between consistent, high-level seasons and playoff success (more of a crapshoot, simply probabilistically speaking).

You made it sound like he was an after thought in those titles in the same way his brother was when he won with Denver. Eli was a huge part of those wins, 2X MVP, and made some amazing plays in those games. They won because of him, not in spite of him. You are also leaving out after the first superbowl win the next season they were 11-1 and rolling teams until idiot Plaxico shot himself. They were absolutely in line to repeat that year.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What would the baseball equivalent of Eli be?

Edit: Joe Carter?

Ernie Banks.

If Philip had a ring this wouldn't be a debate. He'll get in, and get in pretty easily. The numbers are definitely there.

But honestly, the Manning family had it right when they didn't want Eli to go to that franchise. The Chargers have been dysfunctional for a long time with the way the Spanos family operated that team. During his 20s when he was his best he was running up against Brady, Peyton and Ben. After Schottenheimer, he spent a career under one middling head coach after another. Never did Philip have a Super Bowl coach and a supporting cast altogether at the right time. His best chance was with Marty, and that loss to the Jets hurts him.

I'll also add that I've had a chance to speak with Philip and some of the negative portrayals of him don't add up. He's kind, funny, gracious, self-deprecating, a real likable guy.

[BYU 14]

Bumping in this in hopes we can get coconut00 to weigh in

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I'll also add that I've had a chance to speak with Philip and some of the negative portrayals of him don't add up. He's kind, funny, gracious, self-deprecating, a real likable guy.

My perspective might be skewed b/c I work in Raleigh, and NC State folks love Rivers. But the general consensus is that he's a really good human being. And not just in the "he's a famous NFL player who went here for college" way. People going out of their way to talk about what a great guy he is.