WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Oh, we're not in bad shape, true. But if we spend two days lynching villagers, in particular two days lynching villagers that the village is already decided about, taht's two days of very little useful vote history, possibly four villagers dead total, and no new leads on wolves at the end of it. That's what I worry about.

I don't think we'll get bogus voting records for two days. Or one even. If we lynch Telle and she comes up villager then we would all reassess. Chubby would presumably come after me as the next in the chain, I guess Hoops would carry on after you (playing the Good Wolf again). So I don't think we should be painting a Telle lynch quite so black. I think we have good reason to believe that there are wolves in the non-DV voters. I realise that that might be a dangerous assumption but I think we'll likely find two wolves in that group & Zinto.

[Telle]

Votes as of post #1800:

3 - Telle - Lathum (1706), Chubby (1717), Narcizo (1769)
3 - Zinto - Autumn (1718), mauboy (1768), EagleFan (1783)
2 - Autumn - Barkeep (1761), Racer (1800)

[Autumn]

Great work, Racer, thanks for putting that together. It's the sort of thing I'd love to do but haven't had the time. Frankly Heinz had fallen off my radar altogether. In my defense to what you've posted about me, I gave my reasoning for switching to Lathum. I still have the note here on my desk - I was watching Lathum and Darth to see who would make the wise self-defense vote, wondering if we maybe had two wolves up (since I believed Barkeep was likely a wolf). Darth switched to Lathum, but Lathum didn't switch to Barkeep, I thought probably signalling that they were both wolves. It was, I felt, a very reasoned approach to the vote given that Barkeep was my main suspect that day.

[jeheinz72]

FWIW, I'm here. Don't really have much to add as I kind of feel out-paced here. I'm here to answer any questions anyone has of me though

[jeheinz72]

Right now I'm leaning Autumn or Zinto with my vote, I just don't think Telle would admit to passing a hammer she knew was fake. I can see her logic behind letting it go random, since it was Day/Night one. I don't know if I'd do the same, but I can at least see the reasoning in it.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

What gets me, Zinto, isn't the vote, it's the flopping of the reasoning for your voting. Earlier you were voting NTN because you thought BK was a villager. Later you were voting BK because you thought he the most likely wolf. I'm not sure what would cause such a change other than the fact that it helped Darth out.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that Zinto cast the vote that made sure that no vote trickery could save Darth. You're also conveniently forgetting your own rather inaccurate reason for voting Lathum ahead of Darth Vilus. I believe your argument was that Lathum didn't vote Barkeep even when it gave him the chance to push Barkeep ahead of himself when that's exactly what he did. And for this you abandon the voting Darth policy that you had been using for two days? You know, when it actually mattered. And now you call out Zinto for flip-flopping?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You seem to be ignoring the fact that Zinto cast the vote that made sure that no vote trickery could save Darth. You're also conveniently forgetting your own rather inaccurate reason for voting Lathum ahead of Darth Vilus. I believe your argument was that Lathum didn't vote Barkeep even when it gave him the chance to push Barkeep ahead of himself when that's exactly what he did. And for this you abandon the voting Darth policy that you had been using for two days? You know, when it actually mattered. And now you call out Zinto for flip-flopping?

No, Lathum didn't. Not at deadline when it mattered. I was watching the vote. A vote for Barkeep at that time would have helped him out, but he did not make it, not at that time. So you are misunderstanding or misremembering.

And I'm not ignoring Zinto's vote on Darth, I commented on it. It's the sort of burying vote that a wolf would do. No way a wolf ties up the vote there and ties themself to the wolf on their way down.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

#1119 20:25 Darth Vilus unvotes Lathum (5)
#1119 20:25 Darth Vilus votes Barkeep (4)
#1129 20:44 Lathum unvotes DV (4)
#1129 20:44 Lathum votes Barkeep (5)
#1136 20:50 ntn unvotes Lathum (4)
#1136 20:50 ntn votes DV (5)
#1140 20:53 Lathum unvotes Barkeep (4)
#1140 20:53 Lathum votes DV (6)

Lathum votes BK in self-defence and then switches to DV when that looks like the best line of self-defence.

[jeheinz72]

I like Zinto's voting history a whole heckuva lot more than Autumn's

Vote Autumn

[Autumn]

Frankly, Narc, your posts to me seem to speak as if I'm suggesting I know all the answers. I have no idea who the wolves are. My votes and theories are based on looking at the evidence, with as much time as I can manage, and making guesses. I'm not suggesting everyone has to follow me and agree with me. Am I giving the impression that I'm telling you what to think?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Lathum votes BK in self-defence and then switches to DV when that looks like the best line of self-defence.

I am talking about later in the day. When I made my switch to Lathum.

[Autumn]

There was a point, according to my scribbled notes, that it was 6-5-5 I believe it says, Darth-lathum-barkeep. At that point I expected Lathum would switch to barkeep to make it a Darth/Barkeep showdown. I expected Darth would switch to Lathum, to tie it up. Only one of those happened. That was my reasoning for picking Lathum over Darth.

[Autumn]

I'm not good enough of a villager to wriggle my way out of votes, as I've demonstrated well lately. This time (unlike last time I think!) there's some good reasons to vote me, so it's even harder to argue. I will continue to answer any questions people have, but I'm not going to try to argue my way out.

I will try, if I have time, to think more about where I think the wolves really are. I won't bother thinking out loud there, as it will just make everyone suspicious but I'll try to put together my suspicions before deadline.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I agree, at the time I was really suspicious that she would do that, it seemed a very odd move to send it random. But I'm not sure why a wolf would do that or claim to have one that.

A wolf would claim to do that so you didn't know they passed it to a wolf. That part makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why a wolf would come out with the information in the first place.

It's like I was just told "this statement is a lie"... My head is spinning...

[EagleFan]

unvote Zinto

vote Autumn

[EagleFan]

Reading Racer's write up and a couple things jumped out at me. The 'went from one wolf to the other' part. Danny wasn't a slam dunk vote at that point but it seems rather convenient that he voted one wolf and then switched to another (one which was pretty much like a brutal as it took a villaer with him).

[EagleFan]

Back to work, will check back in later.

[Telle]

I REALLY don't think that Autumn is a wolf. Whether you think I am one or not, why would he stick his neck out to save me? It just doesn't make any sense at all if he's a wolf.

I will not be voting Autumn.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Telle

I REALLY don't think that Autumn is a wolf. Whether you think I am one or not, why would he stick his neck out to save me? It just doesn't make any sense at all if he's a wolf.

I will not be voting Autumn.

Hey Telle - can you give me the play-by-play of when this went down?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Just got home and caught up. Too bad you guys chose the day I said I'd be gone to vote me. I don't have the time to write much in defense, my wife is waiting for me, an I like her more than you guys :-)

I would hope that my help in getting Danny lynched would speak in my favor, and I have pushed earth into things numerous times too. That should saydarth stupid iPad

I don't have a role or an item so I'm okay going to Valhalla

The case on telle looked better at quick glance so

vote telle

Originally Posted by Autumn

Shoot

Unvote barkeeper
Vote telle

Originally Posted by Telle

Also, why in the world would I come out and say that I had had a hammer and passed it randomly if I was a wolf? It's not like that has the slightest chance of drawing out Thor.. I didn't still have the hammer at that point to pass to him, and it was a known item in the game.. so all Thor would have learned was that there was a hammer, which he already knew!

If I was going to go passing around a fake hammer as a wolf, I sure as heck wouldn't be telling anybody about it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Telle makes a pretty good point, why would she say anything?

Unvote telle

Originally Posted by Autumn

I guess I'm going thomkal. I don't really have a case, but I can't imagine why telle would say anything about the hammer if a wolf

Vote thomkal

Originally Posted by Autumn

Doesn't make sense to vote her if she seems villager. I don't have a special role, so better me.

At the point in which Autumn unvoted me, he was still very much in the running. And then he outright says that he'd rather he get lynched than me. I just don't see a wolf doing this.. not even for another wolf.

[MrBug708]

Vote Autumn

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I don't think we'll get bogus voting records for two days. Or one even. If we lynch Telle and she comes up villager then we would all reassess. Chubby would presumably come after me as the next in the chain, I guess Hoops would carry on after you (playing the Good Wolf again). So I don't think we should be painting a Telle lynch quite so black. I think we have good reason to believe that there are wolves in the non-DV voters. I realise that that might be a dangerous assumption but I think we'll likely find two wolves in that group & Zinto.

The problem though is that the vote is currently going towards Autumn. You lynch him and he comes up villager.. then what? It does nothing to clear me, or tell you much about anyone else. So then the next day you'll all lynch me. And there you go.. two days, probably four villagers dead including night kills, and nothing to show for it.

Now if you did actually lynch me first, and then see me come up villager, then I think that would clear Autumn because of how he risked himself for me yesterday. No way a wolf does that for a villager.. too risky just to "gain trust".

Of course, I'd prefer to not be lynched at all. So, what other candidates can we discuss lynching?

[jeheinz72]

How much time was left before deadline when Autumn made that move telle? (if you know the post# I can just go look too - and thanks for getting that info)

[Telle]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

How much time was left before deadline when Autumn made that move telle? (if you know the post# I can just go look too - and thanks for getting that info)

It was post #1529 and 9:26pm EST. So about a half hour to go before deadline.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Telle

It was post #1529 and 9:26pm EST. So about a half hour to go before deadline.

That is, when he unvoted me.

[jeheinz72]

Hrm, yeah, that doesn't seem to be a wolf move, even for wolf. So, that leaves who exactly?

[jeheinz72]

Unvote Autumn
Vote Mauboy

[jeheinz72]

Looking at his votes, I think it's worth a shot. I think he's done a lot of "I'm here and ready to analyze!" Then isn't there until it doesn't matter anymore

[Telle]

Well Zinto and I currently have votes. I'd of course prefer you not voting me I don't have much feeling one way or the other for Zinto.

Personally, I want to vote Narcizo. He keeps saying again and again that I passed him the hammer (which turned out to be a fake).. when in reality none of us, not even me, knows if the hammer he received came from me. So he's either a wolf trying to make me look worse than I already do, or he's just so absolutely convinced that I'm a wolf that he's blinding himself.

[jeheinz72]

I don't know if I buy Narc as a vote really, could be that I just have Narc-colored glasses on or something ,but I'm reading and agreeing with a lot of what he has pointed out

[Telle]

Well I admit, my feelings on Narcizo are definitely colored by the fact that he's so intent on lynching me... as it is I have to keep reminding myself that we're rather certain on Chubby being good, since he keeps coming after me so vehemently too

[mauchow]

Heinz is a jerk! The one game I did some small time analysis was this game. LOL. I'm far and away not an analysis type of player so don't expect me to do much there. Not sure where I said I would do some analyzing and didn't follow through. I did a little last week.

I almost didn't even respond to this but since you're a cool Guy I didn't want to ignore you.

[Chubby]

home from work

[Chubby]

vote count?

[Telle]

Votes as of post #1834:

3 - Telle - Lathum (1706), Chubby (1717), Narcizo (1769)
2 - Zinto - Autumn (1718), mauboy (1768)
4 - Autumn - Barkeep (1761), Racer (1800), EagleFan (1815), MrBug (1821)
1 - mauboy - jeheinz (1827)

[Racer]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Reading Racer's write up and a couple things jumped out at me. The 'went from one wolf to the other' part. Danny wasn't a slam dunk vote at that point but it seems rather convenient that he voted one wolf and then switched to another (one which was pretty much like a brutal as it took a villaer with him).

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day Two

#403 22:30 Chubby votes Lathum (1)
[color=black]#429 22:51 Autumn votes Danny (1)

#525 10:48 Autumn unvotes Danny (2)
#553 11:08 Autumn votes Darth Vilus (1)

Taken from Narcizo's vote history write-up on page 34. He unvoted on Danny when he revealed as Thor and put his vote on DV. It was the first vote DV received day two and it looks like it was the first vote he received in the game.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Heinz is a jerk! The one game I did some small time analysis was this game. LOL. I'm far and away not an analysis type of player so don't expect me to do much there. Not sure where I said I would do some analyzing and didn't follow through. I did a little last week.

I almost didn't even respond to this but since you're a cool Guy I didn't want to ignore you.

It's not really that you did or didn't (heck, I haven't done any). It's that you seemed to post/imply that you were going to, then didn't.

I've at least tried to keep all expectations at a minimum with regard to what I have to offer the village (aka nada)

[Chubby]

can anyone explain why zinto still has any votes compared to the other 3?

[Chubby]

WWTD? (What would Thomkal do?)

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Telle

I REALLY don't think that Autumn is a wolf. Whether you think I am one or not, why would he stick his neck out to save me? It just doesn't make any sense at all if he's a wolf.

I will not be voting Autumn.

Relooked at how the vote history went. Telle might be making a good point here. What are other people's thoughts on this?

When Autumn unvoted Telle, it made the vote:

6 votes Autumn
5 votes Telle
4 votes Thomkal.

Lathum voted for Telle before Autumn revoted. After Autumn voted Thomkal, the vote became

6 votes Autumn
6 votes Telle
5 votes Thomkal

Would a wolf risk doing this?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

I REALLY don't think that Autumn is a wolf. Whether you think I am one or not, why would he stick his neck out to save me? It just doesn't make any sense at all if he's a wolf.

I will not be voting Autumn.

It's easy for a wolf to save a villager. They know that if/when that villager ultimately dies they'll be vindicated. This is a standard play out of my wolf playbook. REALLY not thinking someone is a wolf is a pretty strong endorsement. Are you just basing it off this single action or a more complete picture of Autumn this game?

[Barkeep49]

It's easier for a wolf to make a dangerous unvote because he has information about how the other wolves will vote. This coordination shouldn't be underestimated.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Racer

Relooked at how the vote history went. Telle might be making a good point here. What are other people's thoughts on this?

When Autumn unvoted Telle, it made the vote:

6 votes Autumn
5 votes Telle
4 votes Thomkal.

Lathum voted for Telle before Autumn revoted. After Autumn voted Thomkal, the vote became

6 votes Autumn
6 votes Telle
5 votes Thomkal

Would a wolf risk doing this?

I think they are desperate, so yes

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

It's easy for a wolf to save a villager. They know that if/when that villager ultimately dies they'll be vindicated. This is a standard play out of my wolf playbook. REALLY not thinking someone is a wolf is a pretty strong endorsement. Are you just basing it off this single action or a more complete picture of Autumn this game?

But he was actually making himself the lead vote getter at that point. There's no way that he could know that things would swing around to Thomkal by the end and save both of us.

[hoopsguy]

On for a minute, and will chime in here on the "wolf saving villager" scenario - kind of depends on the wolf. But probably not something a first/second time wolf would do ... would likely be something an experienced wolf might do when he is willing to take the heat for his teammates by bringing the focus on himself.

I don't think it is as good a percentage play in a game where we have no seer (assumption, I guess). In a game where there is a seer I think it is a good play for either a cunning wolf or a wolf who thinks they are going out soon and is willing to spread doubt about other players before they are nabbed.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

But he was actually making himself the lead vote getter at that point. There's no way that he could know that things would swing around to Thomkal by the end and save both of us.

But if he knows he's around and he knows other wolves are coming it's suddenly far less risky. There were 35 minutes left til deadline. Plenty of time to move back a vote in self-defense if needed.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I think they are desperate, so yes

I'm just curious, what would be the purpose? This obviously has given Telle trust, but what purpose would it serve for Autumn to risk himself like this if he was a wolf? It's a pretty high risk play. It requires Telle to die and for people to recognize that he helped prevent her from getting lynched.

I'm not really sure what to think now. Autumn's vote history looks pretty bad aside from this. Thomkal's looked bad too though.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

On for a minute, and will chime in here on the "wolf saving villager" scenario - kind of depends on the wolf. But probably not something a first/second time wolf would do ... would likely be something an experienced wolf might do when he is willing to take the heat for his teammates by bringing the focus on himself.

I don't think it is as good a percentage play in a game where we have no seer (assumption, I guess). In a game where there is a seer I think it is a good play for either a cunning wolf or a wolf who thinks they are going out soon and is willing to spread doubt about other players before they are nabbed.

So you think Autumn's actions are pro-villager? Or just talking hypothetically? I don't think that we were close enough to deadline to say he was saving her. I think there was plenty of time for movement.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But if he knows he's around and he knows other wolves are coming it's suddenly far less risky. There were 35 minutes left til deadline. Plenty of time to move back a vote in self-defense if needed.

He actually said that he would rather he be lynched than me. If he were to go back on that and vote me in self-defense, he'd know he'd be gone the next day. I just see this play as WAY too risky.

The other thing that got me thinking positively about him was that on Day 3 when he voted for Lathum at the end after going back and forth between you and Darth Vilus all day, I directly asked him why. He came back very fast with a good answer. Now that wasn't anywhere near enough to clear him in my book, but it felt much more villagery that wolfy to me.. if he was trying to save DV, then he would have had to concoct a story about his vote. And it just didn't feel like there was enough time there for him to have come up with such a clear and concise answer.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Racer

I'm just curious, what would be the purpose? This obviously has given Telle trust, but what purpose would it serve for Autumn to risk himself like this if he was a wolf? It's a pretty high risk play. It requires Telle to die and for people to recognize that he helped prevent her from getting lynched.

I'm not really sure what to think now. Autumn's vote history looks pretty bad aside from this. Thomkal's looked bad too though.

I think Autumn has spent a little too much time defending telle, I also think he'd be willing to fall on the sword for his "boss"