2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[Logan]

I was listening to an old Trump interview with Howard Stern and he was doing everything he could to not say he was in support of gay marriage. He couldn't even bullshit a reason why he was against it.

[molson]

I've posted enough on it but it only gets more interesting the further you go back. Trump ran for president before of course, for the Reform Party nomination in 2000. At the time, the Reform party didn't have a consistent political leaning - you had Pat Buchanan on one side and Lenora Fulani, a black Marxist, on the other. But the did have money and they did have some notoriety thanks to Ross Perot and Jesse Ventura. Reports at the time were that George W. Bush was scared that Buchanan would split the conservative vote, so he encouraged Trump to run for the Reform party nomination, because Trump would split the Democrat vote.

I know there's some precedent for people like Ronald Reagan to change their political leanings over a period of decades, but I don't think anyone's done it as quickly and as prominently as Trump. But Reagan at least walked the walk and backed up his changing viewpoints in public office. Trump just randomly decided to run for president. I think the only reason he's running as a Republican instead of a Democrat is that he knew he needed 1 of the two major parties after 2000, and he knew the Republicans would be more impressed by his business success. So he changed his views to fit their platform, and zeroed in on one issue (immigration) that a lot of people, across political affiliations, feel strongly about.

[JPhillips]

But isn't this just an extension of his dealmaking nature? He's willing to do or say what he needs to in order to close. Years ago he needed to say one thing and now he needs to say something else. He may even stick to what he's saying now, because that's the deal he's making.

[Solecismic]

If Trump knows what he would actually do as President, I'd be surprised. I think he just wants the business cards.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But isn't this just an extension of his dealmaking nature? He's willing to do or say what he needs to in order to close. Years ago he needed to say one thing and now he needs to say something else. He may even stick to what he's saying now, because that's the deal he's making.

That's true, and that's also interesting. A conservative political party employing a "hired gun" with neutral or liberal political beliefs to put their beliefs out there as a charismatic candidate. I bet that has happened in history plenty of times. Perhaps none of these people truly believe what they say, they're just making deals for power and fame and money. Trump is just the South Park-esque character that makes it the whole thing obvious and hilarious.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If Trump knows what he would actually do as President, I'd be surprised. I think he just wants the business cards.

Personally, I'd love to see what he'd do with the White House.

[Kodos]

Celebrity Apprentice--Cabinet Edition!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by molson

Personally, I'd love to see what he'd do with the White House.

Probably sell it to China for twice it's value.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by molson

Personally, I'd love to see what he'd do with the White House.

Pennsylvania Ave. is a very hot area. I could see him breaking it into luxury condos and selling them. Probably make a good amount on the deal.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Probably sell it to China for twice it's value.

Too late, Obama beat him to it.

[molson]

Could he call it the "Trump House?" It wasn't legislation that named it that, so I don't think it would take legislation to change it.

[heybrad]

Maybe he turns the Ellipse and the National Mall into another Trump National Golf Course.

[ISiddiqui]

I found this to be interesting, from 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ement-primary/

In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So we’re keeping track.

It appears on the GOP side, most endorsers have really been waiting and staying on the sidelines because the primary is too confused or fractured. Even in 2012, Romney had 45 points in this measure. Right now, Jeb Bush is #1 with 31, but that's really low, even for this point in the race.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by molson

Personally, I'd love to see what he'd do with the White House.

Add 40 floors?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Add 40 floors?

Sounds about right. Like I mentioned earlier, I like his bravado, but do I think he would be a good President...extremely unlikely.

[Solecismic]

Quinnipiac head-to-head poll dump - 1,000 RV in each of three major swing states:

Jeb Bush:

Florida: versus Clinton +11, versus Biden +13, versus Sanders +19 (three-way against Clinton and Trump - Clinton +1).
Ohio: versus Clinton -2, versus Biden -3, versus Sanders +6 (three-way against Clinton and Trump - Clinton +10).
Pennsylvania: versus Clinton +3, versus Biden +1, versus Sanders +8 (three-way against Clinton and Trump - Clinton +8).

Marco Rubio:

Florida: versus Clinton +12, versus Biden +6, versus Sanders +16.
Ohio: versus Clinton +2, versus Biden -1, versus Sanders +8.
Pennsylvania: versus Clinton +7, versus Biden +3, versus Sanders +12.

Donald Trump:

Florida: versus Clinton +2, versus Biden -3, versus Sanders +4.
Ohio: versus Clinton -5, versus Biden -10, versus Sanders -2.
Pennsylvania: versus Clinton -5, versus Biden -8, versus Sanders -3.

Positive (would vote for)/Negative (would not support if nominee)
(registered Republicans only)

Jeb Bush:

Florida: 17/17, Ohio 12/5, Pennsylvania 22/6

Marco Rubio:

Florida: 11/7, Ohio 7/5, Pennsylvania 10/6

Donald Trump:

Florida 21/29, Ohio 21/31, Pennsylvania 24/36
(these negatives are astonishing)

Rand Paul and Chris Christie have very high negatives and very few positives. Most other candidates are very low on both ends, though Ben Carson is 11/5, 6/5, 13/5 and Carly Fiorina is 7/4, 7/4, 5/5.

Again, that's only registered Republicans.

Hillary Clinton is 48/14, 47/14, 45/15 amongst Democrats.
Joe Biden is 11/12, 14/9, 17/9.
Bernie Sanders is 15/11, 17/7, 19/8.

Both Trump and Clinton are in the 50s in unfavorables in all three states when all registered voters are counted. No one else, except Christie in Pennsylvania, touches 50.

Rubio, John Kasich, Carson and Fiorina top the net positive/negative ratings in all three states. Rubio looks the strongest, but Biden is no slouch in these ratings.

In all three states, 60% or more say Clinton isn't trustworthy. Trump scored 53% in all three states. Rubio and Sanders do well on this question.

Trump scores highest in leadership qualities, except in Florida (Bush). Trump gets killed in "right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis," with 64-65% negatives in all three states. Bush wins this question, hands down.

I've gone out on a limb and said Trump has no chance to win the nomination, let alone the presidency. I'm still pretty much there. He's ahead in nearly every state, but only because there are 16 other candidates. If I'm wrong, though, he'd get annihilated in the General because so many Republicans really dislike him.

The question is what will the 20-25% of Republicans who support Trump today do when Trump drops out of the race?

Rubio's in very good shape right now, but he has to be more than likable and calm moving forward. Bush is going to win that segment in the end - his whole candidacy seems to be all about that.

On the Democratic side, the opportunity is there for Biden if he can make the political case to declare. Clinton's negatives are getting too high to sustain her candidacy. She's still the favorite, but the Republicans are getting to a point where they want her as the opponent.

[RainMaker]

Trump has so much from his past going against him and I'm not a fan, but I thought his townhall yesterday was well done.

He's also the first politician that I've heard who has brought up the H-1B visa scam that tech companies have been pulling the last decade.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

On the Democratic side, the opportunity is there for Biden if he can make the political case to declare. Clinton's negatives are getting too high to sustain her candidacy. She's still the favorite, but the Republicans are getting to a point where they want her as the opponent.

But isn't it the case that Biden/O'Malley/Webb/Whomever have good favorable numbers specifically because they are not running or are not seen as a threat to win. As soon as one of them becomes a probable nominee, you will see the favorables fall as GOP leaners start thinking in terms of the general.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

But isn't it the case that Biden/O'Malley/Webb/Whomever have good favorable numbers specifically because they are not running or are not seen as a threat to win. As soon as one of them becomes a probable nominee, you will see the favorables fall as GOP leaners start thinking in terms of the general.

Within the party that's true. But I'd argue that when you get overall negatives as high as Clinton and Trump have them (and Christie approaches that level), you don't have the opportunity to grow your base.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The question is what will the 20-25% of Republicans who support Trump today do when Trump drops out of the race?

Unless someone picks up many of his positions (and even moreso his style) then a lot of those will be gone. I won't say half but I'd say at least 1/3rd. Some could come back in November for an anti-Hillary thing, and a 3rd party Trump run certainly impacts how many of them are even available for anybody else. I'd figure he retains half or more if he goes that route

That would put him in at least Perot2 / John Anderson territory, with a probable 3rd party ceiling somewhere between Teddy Roosevelt & Perot 1.

[JPhillips]

Apparently Jeb sent out a mailer in Iowa that has one African-American hand on a body with Jeb's head and one hand.

And the text is a part of the mailer.

[JonInMiddleGA]

from coverage of Trump's rally in Mobile, AL tonight

Mary Anne Bousenitz, 59, a retired psychiatrist from Tuscaloosa, said she isn't offended by the insults Trump has directed at women, like "dog" and "bimbo."

"I'm not married to the man and it's not like I'm going to have to sit across a turkey at the table with him," she said.

I'm telling you, his candidacy becomes more real by the day right now.

[Dutch]

JPhillips,

Any idea why Jeb would do that to his own flier???

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm telling you, his candidacy becomes more real by the day right now.

I'm certainly seeing a lot of support from my conservative Facebook friends.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Dutch

JPhillips,

Any idea why Jeb would do that to his own flier???

I've read speculation that this was a photo of a black man that they photoshopped his head onto. The right hand area looks like the hand is placed overtop a darker hand.

[Dutch]

If I were Jeb, I'd investigate my photoshop team a little closer.

[NobodyHere]

I have to agree with The Donald on this one:

Trump says tax code is letting hedge funds 'get away with murder' - Yahoo News

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I've read speculation that this was a photo of a black man that they photoshopped his head onto. The right hand area looks like the hand is placed overtop a darker hand.

What I know about media/production could fit into a thimble, so I ask this honestly. Why would that be seen as easier than just taking a picture of Jeb?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

What I know about media/production could fit into a thimble, so I ask this honestly. Why would that be seen as easier than just taking a picture of Jeb?

After looking at this a bit more, this was Jeb's SuprPAC that sent the mailer. They aren't allowed to coordinated with a declared candidate, and although they all cheat, a photoshoot would be hard for even the FEC to ignore.

[digamma]

Jeb/Super PAC is claiming the lighting was bad in a photo of Jeb and the editing made it worse.

[NobodyHere]

I think it's proof that the Bush family really are lizardmen

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

After looking at this a bit more, this was Jeb's SuprPAC that sent the mailer. They aren't allowed to coordinated with a declared candidate, and although they all cheat, a photoshoot would be hard for even the FEC to ignore.

That's a pretty good reason.

[JPhillips]

Jeb says his anchor babies comment was more about Asians than Mexicans.

He sure is rusty at this politics thing.

[albionmoonlight]

I still think it will be Rubio. Bush is not impressing (and I half wonder if he really wants the job). Trump is keeping any other the 2nd tier candidates from getting any media oxygen. That leaves Rubio and Walker as the other 1st tier candidates. And I think that Rubio looks good and Walker looks like Pawlenty.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Let me clarify. I think that Bush wants the job of President. I also think that he really really does not want to run for President.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola:

Let me clarify. I think that Bush wants the job of President. I also think that he really really does not want to run for President.

That might make him a semi-decent human being (with rather unusual hands). But I still don't get a clear sense of what he stands for. And, even he'll admit this, there's a giant albatross across his shoulders with his name. Because his brother was such a terrible president, I really don't want him around.

[JPhillips]

This Luntz group in NH is interesting.

http://blog.nj.com/politics_impact/p...supporter.html

[JPhillips]

Then there's this chart.



For comparison, Hillary is at +40.

[ISiddiqui]

Vox's reporting on these numbers indicated that the GOP generally needs at least 40% of Hispanic support to win the Presidency. Which means Jeb and Rubio actually have quite a good reason to back them... whereas Trump would lead to a horrible defeat.

[Solecismic]

PPP in New Hampshire: Trump 35, Kasich 11, Fiorina 10, Bush 7, Walker 7.

I'm not surprised by the absence of the Cruz/Santorum/Huckabee group among the leaders - that doesn't play well in New Hampshire. But Trump is already exceeding what I thought he could attract in New Hampshire.

The poll is made up of "usual Republican Primary voters." New Hampshire has open primaries. When I last voted there, I took a Democratic ballot when I entered the poll. When I exited, I re-registered as an Independent.

So that question, asked at the top of the survey, may result in a different mixture of voters than what you would see if the primary were actually held today.

Kasich is doing very well with moderates (20%), but it looks like the Ohio legislature might want to screw him over by throwing an abortion restriction bill his way.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Vox's reporting on these numbers indicated that the GOP generally needs at least 40% of Hispanic support to win the Presidency. Which means Jeb and Rubio actually have quite a good reason to back them... whereas Trump would lead to a horrible defeat.

I tried to find Romney favorability numbers among Hispanics pre-election, but I'm not having any luck.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

PPP in New Hampshire: Trump 35, Kasich 11, Fiorina 10, Bush 7, Walker 7.

I'm not surprised by the absence of the Cruz/Santorum/Huckabee group among the leaders - that doesn't play well in New Hampshire. But Trump is already exceeding what I thought he could attract in New Hampshire.

The poll is made up of "usual Republican Primary voters." New Hampshire has open primaries. When I last voted there, I took a Democratic ballot when I entered the poll. When I exited, I re-registered as an Independent.

So that question, asked at the top of the survey, may result in a different mixture of voters than what you would see if the primary were actually held today.

Kasich is doing very well with moderates (20%), but it looks like the Ohio legislature might want to screw him over by throwing an abortion restriction bill his way.

That's got to be a huge alarm for Bush, right? If he doesn't win NH, where does he get his first win?

[JPhillips]

“We know his goal is to make America great again,” a woman said. “It’s on his hat."

Quick, everybody get hats!!!

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That's got to be a huge alarm for Bush, right? If he doesn't win NH, where does he get his first win?

Super Tuesday is on the early side, and it's heavily Southeast. He has the money to hang in there.

I think it's good news for everyone but the candidates who place too much emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire. Walker is probably more hurt than anyone, and Christie needed them (though I've already pretty much written him off).

[ISiddiqui]

But currently Bush is 3rd in South Carolina behind Trump and Carson, so maybe Southeast states won't be able to bail him out.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Vox's reporting on these numbers indicated that the GOP generally needs at least 40% of Hispanic support to win the Presidency.

Unless they suddenly swing heavily toward supporting law & order, it's unwinnable. And a win by caving in on an invasion isn't one worth having, means nothing if you don't have a country (and something without borders is NOT a country, it's merely a suggestion).

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Super Tuesday is on the early side, and it's heavily Southeast. He has the money to hang in there.

I think it's good news for everyone but the candidates who place too much emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire. Walker is probably more hurt than anyone, and Christie needed them (though I've already pretty much written him off).

It will all depend on who drops out in February, but not breaking the top three in IA and NH, and not winning SC would make it really difficult. It seems like the narrative of losing will be set before the multitude of March primaries. NV is also supposed to be in Feb, but I haven't seen any polling, and it's a caucus state, so who knows who will win that.

[BillJasper]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/25/politi...ion/index.html

A ringing endorsement!

[Solecismic]

I'll just keep pointing to the past on this one - the race will change a lot between now and Super Tuesday. Momentum changes. When it does, the numbers change rapidly.

We're still five+ months out. Trump has name recognition, and now people are quite aware that saying you support Trump really, really upsets the media. I didn't think he'd cross 30, but I still think his chances of winning the nomination approach 0.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/25/politi...ion/index.html

A ringing endorsement!

That's like saying I endorse Clinton because she believes in gay marriage. It's not even remotely close to an endorsement. It's actually quite the opposite.

"Duke, who previously served in the Louisiana statehouse and ran for U.S. Senate in that state, did not endorse Trump and said Trump remains untrustworthy for his "deep Jewish connections" and support for Israel."

"I don't think he's trustable ... "