Jay Leno to stay with NBC; New 10 PM show

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And if anyone bothered to get the quotes (and could actually get affiliates to admit it) there are also those who have ratings up by double digits with Leno over the unwatched crap it replaced on a lot of nights.

You can make that claim but without any data, that's highly doubtful to believe. Are there some places where Leno is up 10% versus what something like Medium pulled in? Possibly. But I challenge you to find any station getting higher ratings than it was a year ago at 10pm and for late local news.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And for the network's bottom line, that's largely a big "so what?". They've only got 10 O&O's left, only 4 or 5 in major markets, and they're so devalued (with or without Leno) that being stuck with them was reportedly the last big sticking point to getting the deal done with Comcast. I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe there's a major batch of affiliate agreement expirations coming up and in the majority of markets any switches that did happen would be negligible (since cable & digital have rendered channel position largely meaningless).

Clearly the reason is that the affiliates were done with Leno. There are syndicated shows they could plug into that time slot and draw the same crowd and keep all the money. The reports out today were that the affiliate groups told NBC to do something about Leno now of they were going to start dumping Leno. Leno may be cheap but if the only stations carrying the show are the O&Os, that no longer is a plus on the bottom line.

If affiliates drop Leno and get higher ratings without him, they might decide to start looking at what other shows they can drop and make more money with. What's NBC going to do? They can't have that kind of mutiny on their hands.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

To be sure, if Leno moves back to late night there will be great celebration among the "hurrah for scripted TV" crowd. But with ABC likely to reduce scripted by at least two hours by next season & NBC likely to replace at least part of Leno with another hour of Biggest Loser and another hour or two of reality shows, the net change will be ... zero.

A lot of us have said over the last 10 years since reality programming began creeping onto network TV than the pendulum would shift. Tastes changes and the preference for drama, comedy, sports, reality, news or whatever change. With so much competition for the reality genre, it's almost insane for network TV to continuing chasing that audience.

In the week before New Year's, there were a total of 3 "reality" shows in the top 25 -- 60 minutes, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition and Sing Off. Even the big ones like AI and Survivor aren't pulling in the ratings they once did. Most of them are still more profitable than dramas and comedies because they are cheaper to produce. But all of the new hit shows this year are scripted: Glee, The Middle and Modern Family are the biggest news shows of the year. CBS is experiencing a boom in ratings with shows that have been around for a few years but people are turning to because frankly NCIS, HIMYM and Big Bang Theory are pretty much the best scripted shows on network TV right now.

As the ratings for reality continue to slip, it makes the economic question to go scripted easier. Do you choose a guaranteed small profit with reality or take a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the mother lode with a scripted show?

[kcchief19]

Jon, you'll be happy to know that the chief of programming at NBC Angela Bromstad was asked point blank if NBC would consider moving hit shows from USA to 10 pm. She said just because it works on USA doesn't mean it will work on NBC.

Frankly, I think that makes as much seeing as just because your DVD plays on RCA DVD player doesn't mean it will work on my Sony DVD player. But I will pull this line out of her biography:

Bromstad had served since March 2005 as president of the Los Angeles-based NBC Universal Television Studios (now known as Universal Media Studios). She was responsible for the development of scripted comedy and drama series, as well as for overseeing current series production for such shows as “The Office,” “30 Rock,” “Friday Night Lights,” “Heroes,” “House,” “Las Vegas,” “Monk,” “Psych,” “Battlestar Galactica,” “Eureka,” and the “Law & Order” dramas, among numerous other programs.

Lot of non-NBC programming on there. And it says everything about NBC Universal that their most successful show right now is on Fox.

[ISiddiqui]

I heard a rumor that NBC had approved a ton of pilots of next fall, like far more than usual. It seems they've had this idea to move Jay back to 11:30 for a little bit.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by molson

"Gaspin said the new plan is for Leno to take over a shortened "Tonight Show," with O'Brien moving back to "Late Night" at midnight and Fallon hosting a new show at 1 a.m."

Interesting that Leno would get the "Tonight Show".

Was that quote from the CNN article you linked? Because it now says that Conan's show would keep the "Tonight" name.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Was that quote from the CNN article you linked? Because it now says that Conan's show would keep the "Tonight" name.

Yup, that was a cut-and-paste from that CNN article, I guess they fixed it.

Conan keeping the Tonight Show makes a whole lot more sense.

[Young Drachma]

If Conan doesn't keep The Tonight Show name, NBC breaches their contract with him. He has to keep the name or give him an opt out and some payola on the way out the door.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

You can make that claim but without any data, that's highly doubtful to believe. Are there some places where Leno is up 10% versus what something like Medium pulled in? Possibly. But I challenge you to find any station getting higher ratings than it was a year ago at 10pm and for late local news.

I thought I quoted that for you already, dismal as their local news is, Atlanta would be a market where that seems to be true, at least more nights that not.

There are syndicated shows they could plug into that time slot and draw the same crowd and keep all the money.

All the money minus what they pay for whatever syndication is available (that isn't already being cleared in their market) ... minus the absence of any national money they've been getting since the syndication scraps wouldn't even be considered by a good portion of buyers ... and there are very few cases where I've seen any primetime syndication pull anything close to even the relatively low Leno numbers. Oprah reruns work in some markets (if you've got the clearance already), Simpsons reruns used to do around that number in a handful of markets, but that's about it. Otherwise the ceiling seems to be around a 1.0.

What's NBC going to do? They can't have that kind of mutiny on their hands.

Sure they could, because it's almost entirely a bluff.

A lot of us have said over the last 10 years since reality programming began creeping onto network TV than the pendulum would shift.

Yep, and you were wrong then just as much as you're wrong now.

Jeff Gaspin Confirms: 10pm Won’t Be Filled With Five Hours of Scripted Content - TV Ratings, Nielsen Ratings, Television Show Ratings | TVbytheNumbers.com

Two hours of drama, some more Dateline hours, and some juggling (likely read that as "more Biggest Loser.

And before anybody gets too excited, might want to check out the awe-inspiring pilots that have gotten the early greenlight.
NBC Announces Some Of Its Early Development Slate for 2010-11 - TV Ratings, Nielsen Ratings, Television Show Ratings | TVbytheNumbers.com

Yep, an hour long comedy with Adam Corrola sounds like some high quality stuff to me.

In the week before New Year's, there were a total of 3 "reality" shows in the top 25 ...

Probably not a good week to base anything on since both viewing & programming patterns are still out of whack.

Here's the top 20 season to date
Nielsen Television TV Ratings for Network Primetime Series - Zap2it

2 hours of Dancing ... Stars + 3 NFL entries + 60 Minutes + Survivor (& we haven't even gotten to Idol yet).

That's 7 of the top 20 shows.

Then there's 7 police procedurals, 2 sitcoms, 2 night time soaps (Housewives + Anatomy), and a whopping 2 dramas (House & The Good Wife).

And here's the biggie

Do you choose a guaranteed small profit with reality or take a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the mother lode with a scripted show?

Unless you've suddenly working with an unlimited budget & no accountability you take the guaranteed profit most of the time since the "mother lode" has a steadily declining return as broadcast steadily fades, those hits simply aren't worth nearly as much as they used to be since what constitutes "a hit" isn't nearly as demanding as it once was.

Saw a good conversation about this somewhere online last week, basically that anything over a 3.0 is on solid ground today but within the next 2-3 years a 2.0 will be the new 3.0.

[Swaggs]

Interesting thread -- I don't know a lot about the inner-workings of programming, beyond a microlevel with a few of my favorite television shows (SNL, for one), but I appreciate all the post from JiMG and kcchief that give us a little better perspective.

If I am Conan, I think I would try to see how much of my guaranteed contract money I can get from NBC, take it, sign with the highest bidder (whether Fox or even an HBO or Showtime to do a show + development), and move back to NYC. To me, NBC looks like a sinking ship and I think cutting ties and getting NBC's stink off of him is better to do sooner, rather than later.

Also, I think it would be awesome if someone would make a Front Office Television game, where you are the president of a network and have to develop your programming. Everything from your news anchors to contracts with professional/college sports to trying to come up with the next Friends or CSI (along with trying to develop and retain your on-air talent, so that another network or movie stardom doesn't attract them away). Someone get on this, please.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

... but I appreciate all the post from JiMG and kcchief that give us a little better perspective.

Probably a good time for me to point out that as often diametrically opposed as me & chief are, I think that we're probably not a bad representation of some of the arguments that go on either behind closed doors or off the clock around both the TV business & the media business. (Well, the TV business at least. I'm not sure how many people there are left on the media buying side who are smart enough to follow the argument that either of us makes but that's a whole different story)

His got his take, I've definitely got mine, but in the end we're both just interested observers (unless he has a lot more access to people who make decisions that I've picked up on). Mostly in good fun afaic (and I suspect he agrees).

[molson]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Interesting thread -- I don't know a lot about the inner-workings of programming, beyond a microlevel with a few of my favorite television shows (SNL, for one), but I appreciate all the post from JiMG and kcchief that give us a little better perspective.

Same here. I worked one year as a research analyst for a big TV sales representative in NYC, I got basically the 101 course of demos, ratings, went to a few up-fronts, and that world has been fascinating to me ever since (and before, as a TV nerd in the Newhouse school at Syracuse), so it's cool to hear from people who still have a knowledge of such things.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Mistake #2 : caving to the affiliates who have virtually zero leverage

I heard it reported that several of the largest affiliates threatened to pre-empt Leno with syndicated shows or an early local news. Isn't taking viewers away leverage?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Samdari

I heard it reported that several of the largest affiliates threatened to pre-empt Leno with syndicated shows or an early local news. Isn't taking viewers away leverage?

Except that they'd be cutting off their own noses doing it. The syndicated shows aren't likely to outdeliver Leno and the cost of adding an extra newscast (plus often going up against an established early newscast making that a tough proposition) means it might not be a completely empty threat but it's one that most station ownership groups are going to be reluctant to act upon.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Reports coming out that Conan is now in talks with FOX and pursuing other options and is looking to leave NBC.

FOXNews.com - Report: Conan O'Brien Ready to Leave NBC Over Late Night Shake Up

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Reports coming out that Conan is now in talks with FOX and pursuing other options and is looking to leave NBC.

FOXNews.com - Report: Conan O'Brien Ready to Leave NBC Over Late Night Shake Up

I would like that. I wonder if a) he'll get a stake in the new show, and b) if he will stay in L.A.?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Reports coming out that Conan is now in talks with FOX and pursuing other options and is looking to leave NBC.

FOXNews.com - Report: Conan O'Brien Ready to Leave NBC Over Late Night Shake Up

Fox is a much better fit for Conan anyway. Fox is the number 1 network so he has the chance to put up solid numbers. He could start at 11pm eastern just because Fox does news at 10pm. Oh, and since Conan wrote for The Simpsons, it would be a home coming of sorts for him.

[DeToxRox]

Conan to Fox is ideal. He would go in with a show all his own, without having to cow tow to an older audience. Good for him if true.

[Kodos]

I hope it works out well for Conan. I hope it works out poorly for Leno.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Interesting thread -- I don't know a lot about the inner-workings of programming, beyond a microlevel with a few of my favorite television shows (SNL, for one), but I appreciate all the post from JiMGA and kcchief that give us a little better perspective.

Agreed 100%. Definitely glad to hear some of this- as JIMGA said, I think this does echo some of what goes on. Only, I'm thinking this is a lot more civil and with two more intelligent participants than the ones making the decisions.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Also, I think it would be awesome if someone would make a Front Office Television game, where you are the president of a network and have to develop your programming. Everything from your news anchors to contracts with professional/college sports to trying to come up with the next Friends or CSI (along with trying to develop and retain your on-air talent, so that another network or movie stardom doesn't attract them away). Someone get on this, please.

It would be next to impossible to come up with a suitable level of immersion so that it doesn't just come down to gaming the ratings/money system. Hell, you just can't make most of this up. Tho it would be funny if every time something happened in the news world, there was a patch that made it possible in the game. "No, there's no way we change up our 10pm programming- that'd be ridiculous. And now that our 11:30pm guy failed, our 10pm guy is arguing through the media for his old job back?!? Where do they come up with this stuff?"

SI

[Pyser]

id like to see conan on hbo, but i know it wont happen. fox is an ok 2nd choice though

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

I would like that. I wonder if a) he'll get a stake in the new show, and b) if he will stay in L.A.?

If he has any say in the matter, I would imagine he'd stay in LA at the very least for the benefit of his staff and crew who uprooted their lives and moved out there with him.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Yep, and you were wrong then just as much as you're wrong now.

Jeff Gaspin Confirms: 10pm Won’t Be Filled With Five Hours of Scripted Content - TV Ratings, Nielsen Ratings, Television Show Ratings | TVbytheNumbers.com

Just because Jeff Gaspin and doesn't plan to fill 9pm with five hours of scripted shows doesn't mean the pendulum isn't shifting. All that proves is that NBC can't possibly get scripted programming ready to go March 1 and that they are idiots by continuing to go to that well. NBC isn't loaded with programming geniuses -- that's why they are in this boat to begin.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Here's the top 20 season to date
Nielsen Television TV Ratings for Network Primetime Series - Zap2it

2 hours of Dancing ... Stars + 3 NFL entries + 60 Minutes + Survivor (& we haven't even gotten to Idol yet).

That's 7 of the top 20 shows.

Then there's 7 police procedurals, 2 sitcoms, 2 night time soaps (Housewives + Anatomy), and a whopping 2 dramas (House & The Good Wife).

The numbers backup my point. In the 2007-08 season there were nine reality shows in the top 20. There were four hours of DWTS alone. SNF also made the cut. For scripted shows there were three dramas, two soaps, four police procredurals and a comedy. Taking Idol coming backing this spring, there is still an uptick from reality toward scripted.

Then look at the individual show ratings. The top six shows two years ago were all reality drive, with four hours of DWTS and two hours of Idol. This year DWTS is 3 and 7. The top-ranked scripted show two years ago was House at No. 7. There are FOUR scripted shows in the top 7 this season. Ratings for NCIS are up 33%. There were four scripted shows drawing 15 million viewers or more. This season six are drawing those numbers.

So far this season the only reality shows in the top 20 are DWTS and Survivor. We can count 60 Minutes and the three football shows in the top 20, but note that two years ago 60 Minutes wasn't in the top 20 and only one football show was in the top 20.

The numbers are clear: ratings for all three of the top reality shows that rank in the top 20 (AI, DWTS and Survivor) are all down by the tune of 10-30 percent. Flash-in-the-pan reality shows like Moment of Truth that ranked in the top 20 are gone. The other reality shows on network TV aren't putting up numbers either. Ratings for scripted programming are up.

[kcchief19]

Not really the thread for it, but here's my metaphor for reality TV. I used to work for Disney and Disney had corporate-owned retail stores nationwide. These were very profitable stores. In the late '90s, plush toy (stuffed animals, if you insist) sales plummeted due to two dreaded words: Beanie Babies.

Disney resisted the fad for a long time. When I was with Disney, the idea of selling cheap plush toys like Beanie Babies was abhorrent. The company mission was that selling quality merchandise in the stores that was distinctive from what the company licensed to other retailers was key to getting consumers to pay a premium for quality merchandise.

As sales continued to fall, execs decided to get into the Beanie Baby craze. Sales went nuts. The stores quickly began to sell $5 Beanie Babies like they were going out of style (so to speak). At a mere $5 a pop these things quickly accounted for 20 percent of store sales and there weren't many complaints because the margins on those things were ridiculous.

The problem is that people who came to buy Beanie Babies weren't buying anything else. They were buying $20 t-shirts or videos or pewter collectibles. They weren't event buying $3 pencils. Eventually Disney had these lavish, expensive retail stores that were selling $5 plush toys.

When the Beanie Baby market crashed, so did the stores. Disney took a great, successful concept and ran it into the ground. They closed most of the stores and eventually sold off the remaining stories at a fraction of their original value.

Reality shows are Beanie Babies. They're profitable but when every cable and broadcast network is airing them, they lose their luster and value. If you build your entire business model around selling them, you're just waiting to be hammered when the market collapses.

[stevew]

Conan to fox will be a dismal failure.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Reality shows are Beanie Babies. They're profitable but when every cable and broadcast network is airing them, they lose their luster and value. If you build your entire business model around selling them, you're just waiting to be hammered when the market collapses.

since i work in reality tv, i hope youre wrong. in any case, its so cheap to make, the death or reality is a long way off

[Logan]

Conan has been on fire the past couple shows.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

Conan has been on fire the past couple shows.

Hadn't thought of that but now that you mention it setting him on fire might be mildly amusing for a minute or two. I can see where that would be a big improvement

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Conan has been on fire the past couple shows.

It seems like he's been spending far too much time and effort since switching over to the Tonight Show on getting people to 'get' the jokes. Before, it never seemed like he worked this hard to make a joke. I'm guessing they've asked him at some level to dumb down the jokes for the mass audience. It doesn't work nearly as well.

Of late, he seems to be doing his bits more like the old show and it's a lot better. I'm guessing the knowledge that he might be moving has allowed him to open up his delivery a bit.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by brassmonkey32

Whats the big deal? Conan's Tonight show will be just 30 mins later on TV.

Don't viewing numbers drop dramatically after the first 30 minutes? A lot of people just watch the monologues?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Saw over at New York Post that if Conan's show is bumped back and he decides to leave, NBC would owe him $80M. Ouch.

Time is $ for Conan - NYPOST.com

[ISiddiqui]

Letterman, of course, had a ton of fun at NBC's expense over this last evening, starting it off by saying "Once again, I did not get the Tonight Show", LOL!

[Dr. Sak]

Conan is leaving NBC

[stevew]

UNIVERSAL CITY, Calif., Jan. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Conan O'Brien released the following statement.

People of Earth:

In the last few days, I've been getting a lot of sympathy calls, and I want to start by making it clear that no one should waste a second feeling sorry for me. For 17 years, I've been getting paid to do what I love most and, in a world with real problems, I've been absurdly lucky. That said, I've been suddenly put in a very public predicament and my bosses are demanding an immediate decision.

Six years ago, I signed a contract with NBC to take over The Tonight Show in June of 2009. Like a lot of us, I grew up watching Johnny Carson every night and the chance to one day sit in that chair has meant everything to me. I worked long and hard to get that opportunity, passed up far more lucrative offers, and since 2004 I have spent literally hundreds of hours thinking of ways to extend the franchise long into the future. It was my mistaken belief that, like my predecessor, I would have the benefit of some time and, just as important, some degree of ratings support from the prime-time schedule. Building a lasting audience at 11:30 is impossible without both.

But sadly, we were never given that chance. After only seven months, with my Tonight Show in its infancy, NBC has decided to react to their terrible difficulties in prime-time by making a change in their long-established late night schedule.

Last Thursday, NBC executives told me they intended to move the Tonight Show to 12:05 to accommodate the Jay Leno Show at 11:35. For 60 years the Tonight Show has aired immediately following the late local news. I sincerely believe that delaying the Tonight Show into the next day to accommodate another comedy program will seriously damage what I consider to be the greatest franchise in the history of broadcasting. The Tonight Show at 12:05 simply isn't the Tonight Show. Also, if I accept this move I will be knocking the Late Night show, which I inherited from David Letterman and passed on to Jimmy Fallon, out of its long-held time slot. That would hurt the other NBC franchise that I love, and it would be unfair to Jimmy.

So it has come to this: I cannot express in words how much I enjoy hosting this program and what an enormous personal disappointment it is for me to consider losing it. My staff and I have worked unbelievably hard and we are very proud of our contribution to the legacy of The Tonight Show. But I cannot participate in what I honestly believe is its destruction. Some people will make the argument that with DVRs and the Internet a time slot doesn't matter. But with the Tonight Show, I believe nothing could matter more.

There has been speculation about my going to another network but, to set the record straight, I currently have no other offer and honestly have no idea what happens next. My hope is that NBC and I can resolve this quickly so that my staff, crew, and I can do a show we can be proud of, for a company that values our work.

Have a great day and, for the record, I am truly sorry about my hair; it's always been that way.

Yours,

Conan

SOURCE Conan O’Brien

Nice

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Letterman, of course, had a ton of fun at NBC's expense over this last evening, starting it off by saying "Once again, I did not get the Tonight Show", LOL!

[Maple Leafs]

Wow, NBC just got bitchslapped.

[sterlingice]

Unfortunately, I can't check those clips out until I get home. However, Letterman has done a wonderful job of coming off as incredibly bitter and petty every time I've seen him talk about this over the past couple of months. Is this more of the same?

SI

[molson]

Good for Conan.

I predict that NBC will now offer the Tonight Show gig to Chevy Chase.

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Unfortunately, I can't check those clips out until I get home. However, Letterman has done a wonderful job of coming off as incredibly bitter and petty every time I've seen him talk about this over the past couple of months. Is this more of the same?

SI

No, now I think it's more of a petty smugness.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by molson

Good for Conan.

I predict that NBC will now offer the Tonight Show gig to Chevy Chase.

I was gonna say Magic Johnson.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

I was gonna say Magic Johnson.

Why choose when you could have both?

SI

[Swaggs]

I love the shot at Carson Daly.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I hope it works out well for Conan. I hope it works out poorly for Leno.

This sounds about right to me.

[cuervo72]

[Crapshoot]

PS, The Letterman clips were awesome. How anyone can prefer Leno... wow.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

PS, The Letterman clips were awesome. How anyone can prefer Leno... wow.

The appeal of Jay Leno is one of the great mysteries of our time.

[DaddyTorgo]

i don't find any of these guys funny, i think they're all egotistical, pedestrian comedians who lob softball questions at pop-culture figures.

amusing because at least leno/conan are MA-guys.

i couldn't tell you the last time i spent a second watching any of these shows (conan, leno, jimmy fallon, letterman, doesn't adam carolla have a show?)...frankly i'm surprised that they're still around. They just seem like total shills to me.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

The appeal of Jay Leno is one of the great mysteries of our time.

Someone did a great article about this many months ago and explained why Conan struggled and even why a vastly superior comedian like Letterman couldn't beat him.

Leno is kind of the McDonalds of comedy. Nothing great but really dependable. A guy you know what you're getting every night. Letterman seems to lose interest a lot and can have great shows followed by bad ones. The talk show audience isn't a diehard group of people focusing in on every joke. It's a group of people getting ready for bed, laying out their clothes for tomorrow and otherwise using the show as background distraction. They don't need to be left in stitches, just mildly entertained. Leno does that better than anyone.

Here is one short piece about why Jay is good but I'll look for the other.

Why the Writers' Strike Couldn't Bring Down Jay Leno -- New York Magazine

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

From tonight's show:

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Wow, NBC just got bitchslapped.

When watching those Letterman clips again, you think he still has a grudge against Leno? Man, he was brutal on Jay (aka "Big Jaw").

[RainMaker]

Wouldn't it make sense for ABC to look at Conan? Put him at 11:30 and Kimmel at 12:30. Ratings wouldn't be good right now but they'd be setting up the next generation of talk shows. Both have younger audiences.