2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Literally every single black Dem I know personally that has expressed on social media is for Biden. Of course that’s almost exclusively Southern, mostly church-going, and mostly mid 40s and up, though the Chicago-based Lewis clan (all three of my dad’s siblings had moved there by the end of the 70s) also is 100% Biden.

From your observation, what is it about the Biden campaign that resonates so much with black voters?

(My bias- I have a hard time seeing what makes him any different than Hillary Clinton, who already lost to Trump. So I'm confused by the "electability" argument.)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Vermont for Sanders and Virginia for Biden on exit polling

Bloomberg looks to have done real bad in Virginia which is good news for Biden.

[GrantDawg]

538 says the Biden-Virginia win will be around 49%.

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[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The Warren campaign is interesting. She was the clear frontrunner going into this primary and by all accounts should have done much better. Would be interesting to see an obituary on the campaign someday to see what went wrong.

Was trying to find a comparison for her in recent times. Maybe Jeb? A safe pick who could appeal to everyone in the party in some capacity but never could gain traction.

She's anything but the safe pick. Prior to Sanders, she was considered the far left end of the party. Jeb was a middle of the road pick, she's nowhere near middle of the road.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

James Comey just came out in support of Biden.

How self-deluded does James Comey have to be to think that his endorsement is a positive thing?

This was smart.

Joe Biden Campaign Director Rejects James Comey's Endorsement: 'How Can I Return It?'

[molson]

The photos of Biden and Bernie head to head on the front page of CNN.com....they look like they're 250 years old combined.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

She's anything but the safe pick. Prior to Sanders, she was considered the far left end of the party. Jeb was a middle of the road pick, she's nowhere near middle of the road.

She seems in the middle of a far-left candidate like Bernie and a moderate corporate candidate like Biden. If you map out her policies, they are incredibly popular when polling Democrats.

What do you think made her far-left?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

She seems in the middle of a far-left candidate like Bernie and a moderate corporate candidate like Biden. If you map out her policies, they are incredibly popular when polling Democrats.

What do you think made her far-left?

Free college, Medicare for all, wealth tax, Wall Street reform.

She's not as far to the left as Bernie, but she's much closer to a Bernie than a Biden.

[GrantDawg]

By exit polls, Biden will hit above 15% in Vermont. That would be a blow to Sanders who expected to get all the delegates.

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[Radii]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The Warren campaign is interesting. She was the clear frontrunner going into this primary and by all accounts should have done much better.

I thought Biden was considered the favorite from the very start? Warren had her moments and its very disappointing that she tanked the way she did, but I never saw her as a favorite.

[bronconick]

North Carolina for Biden. Sanders' unicorn voters are a myth.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Radii

I thought Biden was considered the favorite from the very start? Warren had her moments and its very disappointing that she tanked the way she did, but I never saw her as a favorite.

As far as I know Warren didn't lead in a single national poll. IMO she suffered from the crowded field along with the fact that she's too far left for Biden supporters and Bernie supporters are too loyal to jump ship. So she did well in the early debates and just seemed to plateau.

[bronconick]

Bloomberg purchases the American Samoa Caucus

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Free college, Medicare for all, wealth tax, Wall Street reform.

She's not as far to the left as Bernie, but she's much closer to a Bernie than a Biden.

72% of Democrats support free college.
77% of Democrats support M4A
77% of Democrats approve her wealth tax
81% of Democrats support increased financial regulation

There doesn't appear to be a big split on her with those issues and the Democratic Party voters.

Should note that many of those are popular with Independents and even Republicans. Doesn't seem far-left at at all.

[GrantDawg]

Tulsi got a delegate! #Tulsi-sunami

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Bloomberg purchases the American Samoa Caucus

Fun. He probably promised to build hotels and mansions there.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Front Office Midget

From your observation, what is it about the Biden campaign that resonates so much with black voters?

(My bias- I have a hard time seeing what makes him any different than Hillary Clinton, who already lost to Trump. So I'm confused by the "electability" argument.)

At least for those among my friends and family, I think it's a combination of things...


1. They think Joe has the best shot at beating Trump.
2. They're more socially conservative than pretty much every Dem candidate, including Biden. (My uncle, for example, is in his 80s. Retired pastor. Marched with Dr. King. Was arrested for refusing to go to the back of the bus when he was in his 20s. Big civil rights guy, but until he retired in the mid 2000s, when his gay granddaughter would show up to church, he'd almost always slip something in the sermon pretty hardcore against homosexual behavior. I realize that this is anecdotal, but he's a pretty middle-of-the-road southern black preacher, who influences a significant portion of the black community in his town. I don't think he's by any means an outlier.) Goldwater calling the Civil Rights Act unconstitutional, The Southern Strategy, dog whistles to racists, and not calling out racists is what alienated black folks from the Republican Party--but not so much a total split on ideology in other areas. (Some of my Dem-voting family members are as strong on 2A rights as any NRA A+ Republican politician.)
3. Age. Now, as admitted above, my own circle of Dem friends trends older among blacks than whites. That said, I couldn't put my hands quickly on any stats to back this up, but my impression is that the average black voter is older than the average white voter. (For that matter, logically, one would expect that older blacks would value their vote more than any other demographic in the country because of proximity to being denied that right.) If that's correct, then that would feed the social conservatism to which I refer in #2.




Over-simplifying, they may be seeing #1 through their own biases as laid out in #2: ("Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, because he's the only one that isn't way out there!")

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Radii

I thought Biden was considered the favorite from the very start? Warren had her moments and its very disappointing that she tanked the way she did, but I never saw her as a favorite.

Biden joined later than most candidates. People weren't sure if he was going to run or not. Pretty sure Warren was the frontrunner back in early 2019 (dont' think Biden got going till May). I just remember the betting markets had her on top but maybe it was just those early months of the race.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Atocep

IMO she suffered from the crowded field along with the fact that she's too far left for Biden supporters and Bernie supporters are too loyal to jump ship.

I think this is it. She needed to knock Bernie out of controlling the "progressive" lane and never did.

[Ben E Lou]

NBC is reporting that over 50% of Super Tuesday voters decided in the last few days. That's sounds like more good news for Biden.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

NBC is reporting that over 50% of Super Tuesday voters decided in the last few days. That's sounds like more good news for Biden.

fwiw, I roomsurfed through FXNC and caught this stat for NC:
45% decided in the past few days .... Biden got 50% of those, 14% to Bernie, 12% to Bloomie

edit to add: assuming all those asked answered honestly AND actually voted in the (D) primary, that would mean that "the field" did basically as well the Bernie / Bloomie combo with that subset of voters (50+26 leaves 24)

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Biden joined later than most candidates. People weren't sure if he was going to run or not. Pretty sure Warren was the frontrunner back in early 2019 (dont' think Biden got going till May). I just remember the betting markets had her on top but maybe it was just those early months of the race.

Sanders and Harris were leading the polls prior to Biden's announcement. Biden was still leading polls that included him, which was most considering it was so early.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

At least for those among my friends and family, I think it's a combination of things...


1. They think Joe has the best shot at beating Trump.
2. They're more socially conservative than pretty much every Dem candidate, including Biden. (My uncle, for example, is in his 80s. Retired pastor. Marched with Dr. King. Was arrested for refusing to go to the back of the bus when he was in his 20s. Big civil rights guy, but until he retired in the mid 2000s, when his gay granddaughter would show up to church, he'd almost always slip something in the sermon pretty hardcore against homosexual behavior.) Goldwater calling the Civil Rights Act unconstitutional, The Southern Strategy, dog whistles to racists, and not calling out racists is what alienated black folks from the Republican Party--but not so much a total split on ideology in other areas. (Some of my Dem-voting family members are as strong on 2A rights as any NRA A+ Republican politician.)
3. Age. Now, as admitted above, my own circle of Dem friends trends older among blacks than whites. That said, I couldn't put my hands quickly on any stats to back this up, but my impression is that the average black voter is older than the average white voter. (For that matter, logically, one would expect that older blacks would value their vote more than any other demographic in the country because of proximity to being denied that right.) If that's correct, then that would feed the social conservatism to which I refer in #2.

Over-simplifying, they may be seeing #1 through their own biases as laid out in #2: ("Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, because he's the only one that isn't way out there!")

The socially-conservative thing is probably spot-on. I'd link it to religion too. I know for instance that you have to be at church on Sunday if you want to be elected by the black community in Chicago. What church you belong to matters a lot.

Obama's decision to attend Trinity for instance was more about politics at the time than anything else. It was how you made connections in the community.

[Radii]

Not enough results in to tell so far, but everything is pointing towards Biden right now. All of Bernie's hope relies on a huge win in California and winning Texas it seems (that maybe has always been the case, but Biden over performing in Virginia and Vermont which is telling)

[albionmoonlight]

Best to take I’ve seen tonight: one week ago Bernie Sanders was given an opportunity to show the Democrats how he would act as a real front runner. And his first move was to praise Castro. Tonight should not be all that surprising

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The socially-conservative thing is probably spot-on. I'd link it to religion too. I know for instance that you have to be at church on Sunday if you want to be elected by the black community in Chicago. What church you belong to matters a lot.

Obama's decision to attend Trinity for instance was more about politics at the time than anything else. It was how you made connections in the community.

And to clarify, my family is HUGE, so the things I'm saying are probably a bit biased that way. My mom was the oldest of 8. All 8 remained (mostly) in Columbus, GA and none of the 8 had fewer than 3 kids. Four of her brothers were preachers, and I'm not going to try to count how many of the 40ish first cousins in my generation who at one time or another have been in vocational ministry. It's easily over a dozen, quite possibly over half. So, yeah, the folks I'm seeing posting skew toward heavy church involvement, probably moreso than the black community as a whole, but not THAT much more, at least in the South.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Sanders and Harris were leading the polls prior to Biden's announcement. Biden was still leading polls that included him, which was most considering it was so early.

I'm wrong then. I just remember a lot of stuff like this early on. Then again I think Harris and Beto were considered legit contenders at some point too.

New this issue: @SenWarren’s full-body fight to defeat Trump, by @rtraister https://t.co/AyZbHUfmoL pic.twitter.com/fwNfeHC4QO

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) July 23, 2018

[Ben E Lou]

Texas early-vote counts are showing a near-tie between Bernie and Joe. If the trend holds of late voters breaking for Biden...

[RainMaker]

Tulsi got a delegate in America Samoa which means she gets to be in the next debate!

[GrantDawg]

Brian Williams "Bloomberg not having the night he thought he paid for..."
Tonight definitely is proving you can't just buy votes.

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[RainMaker]

I don't know why I find this so funny.

Thank you, American Samoa! ���� https://t.co/FX4iaI7AvZ

— Team Bloomberg (@Mike2020) March 4, 2020

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

At least for those among my friends and family, I think it's a combination of things...


1. They think Joe has the best shot at beating Trump.
2. They're more socially conservative than pretty much every Dem candidate, including Biden. (My uncle, for example, is in his 80s. Retired pastor. Marched with Dr. King. Was arrested for refusing to go to the back of the bus when he was in his 20s. Big civil rights guy, but until he retired in the mid 2000s, when his gay granddaughter would show up to church, he'd almost always slip something in the sermon pretty hardcore against homosexual behavior. I realize that this is anecdotal, but he's a pretty middle-of-the-road southern black preacher, who influences a significant portion of the black community in his town. I don't think he's by any means an outlier.) Goldwater calling the Civil Rights Act unconstitutional, The Southern Strategy, dog whistles to racists, and not calling out racists is what alienated black folks from the Republican Party--but not so much a total split on ideology in other areas. (Some of my Dem-voting family members are as strong on 2A rights as any NRA A+ Republican politician.)
3. Age. Now, as admitted above, my own circle of Dem friends trends older among blacks than whites. That said, I couldn't put my hands quickly on any stats to back this up, but my impression is that the average black voter is older than the average white voter. (For that matter, logically, one would expect that older blacks would value their vote more than any other demographic in the country because of proximity to being denied that right.) If that's correct, then that would feed the social conservatism to which I refer in #2.

Over-simplifying, they may be seeing #1 through their own biases as laid out in #2: ("Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, because he's the only one that isn't way out there!")

Thank you for taking the time to explain that. Helps to hear the perspective outside of one's bubble.

[Edward64]

Warren is done. My guess is her supporters will go towards Biden.

[GrantDawg]

Biden winning Virginia by 31 points, with 93% in. Wow.

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[Radii]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Warren is done. My guess is her supporters will go towards Biden.

Why in the world would you think that? Warren's ideas are so very close to Bernie's and so far away from Biden's. I know it's not quite as simple as that, but every source I've seen is talking about Warren staying in being bad for Bernie, and how her dropping out would be the equivalent thing to the boost Mayor Pete and Klobuchar are giving Biden right now.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Warren is done. My guess is her supporters will go towards Biden.

No, her supporters go to Sanders which is why she is staying in. She's likely been promised the VP spot.

[RainMaker]

Why do states not hold their congressional primary at the same time as the Presidential? Like Massachusetts holds their primary in September? Seems like a waste of money.

[bronconick]

You have to make the parties coordinate with the states to do that. Good luck.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

No, her supporters go to Sanders which is why she is staying in. She's likely been promised the VP spot.

I doubt that. Biden needs a younger VP.

[Edward64]

Bloomberg is doing better than I would have thought with relatively poor debate performances. He seems to be viable in several states.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Radii

Why in the world would you think that? Warren's ideas are so very close to Bernie's and so far away from Biden's. I know it's not quite as simple as that, but every source I've seen is talking about Warren staying in being bad for Bernie, and how her dropping out would be the equivalent thing to the boost Mayor Pete and Klobuchar are giving Biden right now.

There’s animosity between Sanders + Warren. There’s no animosity with Biden. Personalities are coming in play and just not policy positions. I’m pretty sure she agrees that ‘no one likes Sanders’.

Warren should see that Sanders won’t get things done and it’s better for her to get some sort of position with Biden so she can influence her agenda.

[Kodos]

The DNC establishment tonight:

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Bloomberg is doing better than I would have thought with relatively poor debate performances. He seems to be viable in several states.

His ads are all over the place. Radio, tv, podcasts... I personally am annoyed by ads but obviously people wouldnt do them if they didnt work. Now the question is how much better could he have done had he dodged all of the debates so far?

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

I doubt that. Biden needs a younger VP.

I don't know about who is best to be VP, but I don't believe Warren is staying in to fuck over Bernie at all.

[kingfc22]

What a turnaround for Biden.

[NobodyHere]

Why does ABC have a beached whale as a pundit?

[bronconick]

Biden might be snatching the suburb vote that delivered Democrats the House

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Radii

I don't know about who is best to be VP, but I don't believe Warren is staying in to fuck over Bernie at all.

Yeah in my opinion if anything it would be to become bernies vice president.

[Thomkal]

Sanders down to 50% in his home state of Vermont

[GrantDawg]

Bloomberg coming in second in Colorado. Early voting helped him a lot.

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