NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Not a good start to the week for the Patriots. They need every healthy body they can get at this point. Will be interesting to see if it really happened at Gronk's house.

Report: Chandler Jones overdosed on pills | ProFootballTalk

[Kodos]

I'm sure Aaron Hernandez in involved.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Not a good start to the week for the Patriots. They need every healthy body they can get at this point. Will be interesting to see if it really happened at Gronk's house.

Report: Chandler Jones overdosed on pills | ProFootballTalk

Idiots. But hey if you want to weaken your team and give the Chiefs a better chance of winning, go right ahead I saw this morning on espn that Bill Billacheck has a black eye. Of course he was his usual communicative self about it. Any one hear anything about this?

[Logan]

Didn't Jones walk into a police station which prompted all this to start? Seems like that doesn't fit with a pill overdose.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Idiots. But hey if you want to weaken your team and give the Chiefs a better chance of winning, go right ahead I saw this morning on espn that Bill Billacheck has a black eye. Of course he was his usual communicative self about it. Any one hear anything about this?

I haven't heard anything but I like to think it was something to do with a married woman, given his history.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Didn't Jones walk into a police station which prompted all this to start? Seems like that doesn't fit with a pill overdose.

Police at his home confirmed drugs found there. Also, the audio presents that he was really confused.

What Happened With Chandler Jones?

Glad he's apparently OK, but this team doesn't need distractions.

[albionmoonlight]

My uninformed predictions:

Panthers/Seahawks will be a coin flip.

Cards should have little trouble with Packers.

Broncos defense will feast on a Steelers offense without Brown and an injured Ben.

Pats/Chiefs seems like a no brainer. Brady > Smith. Belichick > Reid. But the Chiefs have gotten the least hype for a team on a double-digit winning streak that I can remember. You only win 10+ in a row in the NFL if you are are really really good. If I were betting, I'd take the Chiefs +5. Not sure if I would take them to win. Should be a better game than people think.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My uninformed predictions:

Panthers/Seahawks will be a coin flip.

Cards should have little trouble with Packers.

Broncos defense will feast on a Steelers offense without Brown and an injured Ben.

Pats/Chiefs seems like a no brainer. Brady > Smith. Belichick > Reid. But the Chiefs have gotten the least hype for a team on a double-digit winning streak that I can remember. You only win 10+ in a row in the NFL if you are are really really good. If I were betting, I'd take the Chiefs +5. Not sure if I would take them to win. Should be a better game than people think.

The Chiefs have the best win percentage of the road teams over at fivethirtyeight.com. Carolina's by far the biggest win percentage.

Chiefs 49%/Pats 51%
Pitt 42%/Denver 58%
Seattle 45%/Arizona 55%
GB 34%/Carolina 66%

Strangely enough, KC currently has the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of the remaining AFC teams, trailing only Carolina and Arizona.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The Chiefs have the best win percentage of the road teams over at fivethirtyeight.com. Carolina's by far the biggest win percentage.

Chiefs 49%/Pats 51%
Pitt 42%/Denver 58%
Seattle 45%/Arizona 55%
GB 34%/Carolina 66%

Strangely enough, KC currently has the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of the remaining AFC teams, trailing only Carolina and Arizona.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

you flipped Car/Ari

[digamma]

If I'm looking to bet this weekend, I'm looking at a carnival gamey bet of the Panthers in the first quarter. My guess is that line will be something like -1/2, and I like the Panthers being amped up in front of a home crowd combined with the Seahawks traveling through multiple time zones and back two weeks in a row.

[Kodos]

I think the Chiefs will beat the Pats.

[Butter]

Now that the Bengals fucked themselves out of the playoffs (a game for which I was relievedly on a plane and failed to witness), I would enjoy a Panthers / Chiefs Super Bowl. Pretty much the most boring one the media can imagine, I'd guess.

Hope the Panthers can drive a stake through the Seahawks, who seemed to have had several lives this year after starting 2-4 and having the Vikings bork that FG last week. Pete Carroll needs to ride his smarmy ass off into the sunset, and a loss here would help.

[QuikSand]

The 538 Elo stuff is generally fine, but it assumes that the teams playing now are appropriately represented by the teams playing during the games in the experience base. Major injuries are a real problem for that sort of model. I think they overweight the chances of Pittsburgh (who look to be hampered badly by new injuries not factored into their prior performances) and underweight the chances of New England (who look to be recovering from major injuries).

I don't see any serious value in the betting lines, myself. But heck, I almost got in on the Texans to win outright last week (glad I didn't).

[Arles]

Just a reminder for those thinking the Arizona-GB game will be a copy of the last one - Green Bay was without both starting tackles, their center and top 2 CBs by the 2nd quarter. For this game, the only real loss they have will be Adams - who has been having arguably the worst WR season in history this year:

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has targeted Adams 64 times this year, and Adams has caught just 32 of those passes. We've seen worse catch rates than that among higher-volume receivers, to be clear, but most of the wideouts who see that low of catch rates also have accumulated high yards per reception averages. In other words, they're deep ball threats -- their catch rates are lower because they're seeing lower percentage throws.

Adams isn't one of those deep ball guys, as he has a 10.1 yards per reception average right now. Since targets started being recorded back in 1992, per Pro Football Reference, only 17 wide receivers have averaged 11 or fewer yards per reception with a 50% (or worse) catch rate while seeing 60 or more targets in a season.

Davante Adams is one of those players.

And among this group of 17 -- remember, these are guys who have caught 50% or fewer of their targets while seeing 60 or more targets -- Adams' 10.1 yards per reception rate is fifth worst.

Predictably, this has translated to our advanced analytics. Since the turn of the century, 1,198 wide receivers have caught 30 or more passes, excluding this season. In terms of Reception NEP per target -- our per-target efficiency metric -- Davante Adams' current campaign would rank 1,186th within the group.

So, while I think Arizona is the better team, GB should be better equipped to deal with their pass rush and have more CB options for their speed.

[EagleFan]

Go Hawks!

[Travis]

I truly believe that Seattle's offense can put up some big numbers this week, especially with Carolina being short on bodies in the secondary.

That said, it'll be Cam vs the Seahawks D that will decide this one. I'm hoping they've tightening things up enough vs passes to the TE to make this a big win on the road, but I'm definitely not assuming that to be the case.

While last week was a super low scoring affair, I wouldn't be at all surprised if both teams put up 24+ points in this one. I'm hoping for a 35-17 type win, I'm expecting a 31-28 type game.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Arles

Just a reminder for those thinking the Arizona-GB game will be a copy of the last one - Green Bay was without both starting tackles, their center and top 2 CBs by the 2nd quarter. For this game, the only real loss they have will be Adams - who has been having arguably the worst WR season in history this year:


So, while I think Arizona is the better team, GB should be better equipped to deal with their pass rush and have more CB options for their speed.

I vote for a copy of the first game, thank you

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Arles

Just a reminder for those thinking the Arizona-GB game will be a copy of the last one - Green Bay was without both starting tackles, their center and top 2 CBs by the 2nd quarter. For this game, the only real loss they have will be Adams - who has been having arguably the worst WR season in history this year:


So, while I think Arizona is the better team, GB should be better equipped to deal with their pass rush and have more CB options for their speed.

Agreed here. I am hoping they can at least make a better game of it, even if I don't think they will necessarily win. The Packers finally showed something last week, if only to raise their fanbase's hopes to crush them that much harder this week

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Didn't Jones walk into a police station which prompted all this to start? Seems like that doesn't fit with a pill overdose.

Synthetic MJ.

[digamma]

Spice is the variety of life.

[Logan]

Antonio Brown ruled out for Sunday. Even Elaine Benes would be impressed by his commitment to faking that concussion.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Logan

Antonio Brown ruled out for Sunday. Even Elaine Benes would be impressed by his commitment to faking that concussion.

I guess "Pacman" will apologize for his comments about Brown right? The question now is, will Big Ben join him on the sidelines? Can't believe the Steelers have much chance if he can't play too.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Logan

Synthetic MJ.

Cris Carter on Mike and Mike this morning wondered if the MJ was laced with something like PCP. Probably not the end of the story here. It would be nice if he was benched for a quarter or a half for his stupidity, but probably won't happen.

[Thomkal]

Let's go Beloved Cardinals! (and belatedly the Chiefs)

[whomario]

stupid ass fumble for the Chiefs there ... As much as i like Smith and root for him, don´t see him putting up big yards here, so this hurts a ton in that situation ...

[Radii]

This feels over.

[whomario]

What a play by Smith there !

[JPhillips]

That was a hell of a play by Smith.

[EagleFan]

They almost have to get in the end zone here.

[jeff061]

Apparently Edelman all by his lonesome can be enough to make or break the Pats offense. I knew he was key, but I still underestimated his importance. Pats entire offensive game plan reverts back to what it was early in the season when he's back.

[jeff061]

As for it being over, Pats defense is to trick or treat right now to declare that. As I type this td KC. Hopefully Brady can keep doing what he's been doing.

[Glengoyne]

Clearly an incomplete pass?

I don't think so. But I doubt it gets overturned.

[frnk55]

Originally Posted by jeff061

As for it being over, Pats defense is to trick or treat right now to declare that. As I type this td KC. Hopefully Brady can keep doing what he's been doing.

Of course Brady will continue. Pats never lose it seems.

[whomario]

This was a nice test of the football IQ for Patriot Fans at viewing parties and the stadium (the overturned Interception)

[digamma]

Does KC realize they are down two scores with 2 minutes left?

[kingfc22]

Horrible clock management on this drive. They do realize this is a 14 point game?

[bhlloy]

Good to see Andy Reid didn't learn to manage the clock between Philly and Kansas City. They could quite easily have another minute thirty on the clock here and maybe a shot at tying it up

[Suicane75]

I'm going to fucking kidnap Andy Reid and fucking force him to learn time management if it's the last fucking thing I do on this earth.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Horrible clock management on this drive. They do realize this is a 14 point game?

When Andy Reid can surprise you with horrible clock management, something really bad is occurring.

[bhlloy]

This is laughably bad

[kingfc22]

A huddle? You've got to be kidding.

[Suicane75]

I'll bet you a 100 dollars they run it here, are stopped, and use a timeout.

[Carman Bulldog]

I can't normally stand the commentators but the complaints about the clock management are legit. The pacing has been painful.

[bhlloy]

I know it's harping a bit at this point, but this is a completely different game if Reid can manage the clock even a little bit. They absolutely would have been in a position to kick deep with a couple of timeouts and the 2 minute warning if he was even slightly competent

[kingfc22]

Saw a tweet mentioning they used 1:47 in clock after the long completion to the 1 yard line.

[sabotai]

KC should challenge the spot. Looked like he was stopped a half yard short to me. (Didn't watch the whole game. Did they have challenges left?)

[Suicane75]

I'm not saying it's wrong or right to onside kick it there. I'm sure arguments can be made either way. But you saved all 3 of your timeouts, and then gave up 25-30 yards of field position and also made it more likely that they'd be willing to throw the fucking ball in a position where they'd need to.

Edit: I guess they didn't have 3.

[whomario]

Patriots got away with one there ...

[digamma]

Can't challenge under two minutes.

[EagleFan]

That was unreal.