WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Telle]

Maybe Autumn's just Mr Super Uber Wolf and has me completely fooled.. but I really think he's much more likely to be a villager than a wolf.

[Autumn]

I'll pipe in and say that I think I did an awful lot to save her, not just move my vote, just as I did an awful lot to get Danny lynched. Both those days I was a very vocal advocate for my position. I argued for Telle's seeming innocence repeatedly, and think I had a pretty big effect on convincing people to not vote her. To my detriment, and ours, if it turns out she's a wolf, but I definitely put myself out there for the half hour before deadline, and have for days afterwards. Just the same, when Chubby hinted at his role, I began crusading for a vote shift back to Danny (after having voted him first thing during the night before), and I think it's clear if you read back or were there, that I had a big impact on convincing people to move their votes. These could be wolf moves, but I definitely stuck my nose out there much more than just shifting my vote around.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Telle

The problem though is that the vote is currently going towards Autumn. You lynch him and he comes up villager.. then what? It does nothing to clear me, or tell you much about anyone else. So then the next day you'll all lynch me. And there you go.. two days, probably four villagers dead including night kills, and nothing to show for it.

Now if you did actually lynch me first, and then see me come up villager, then I think that would clear Autumn because of how he risked himself for me yesterday. No way a wolf does that for a villager.. too risky just to "gain trust".

Of course, I'd prefer to not be lynched at all. So, what other candidates can we discuss lynching?

I disagree lynching Autumn would accomplish nothing. It would shed more light on day four's vote. Also, if he came up good it'd give us more info on the rest of the votes (though that would be true for any villager or wolf).

[Autumn]

I just have to say if I was a wolf, and Telle was a wolf, at the end of this game, you would be required by law to mock me for the worst game of Werewolf in human history. I mean, come on, I didn't just fall off the turnip cart.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I think Autumn has spent a little too much time defending telle, I also think he'd be willing to fall on the sword for his "boss"

I guess one possibility could be that they are both wolves.

[Racer]

Telle, if Autumn isn't lynched, who do you suggest we lynch instead? Who do you think might be a wolf or would provide us with more information?

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Racer

I guess one possibility could be that they are both wolves.

That was kinda what I was implying

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Telle

The problem though is that the vote is currently going towards Autumn. You lynch him and he comes up villager.. then what? It does nothing to clear me, or tell you much about anyone else. So then the next day you'll all lynch me. And there you go.. two days, probably four villagers dead including night kills, and nothing to show for it.

Now if you did actually lynch me first, and then see me come up villager, then I think that would clear Autumn because of how he risked himself for me yesterday. No way a wolf does that for a villager.. too risky just to "gain trust".

Of course, I'd prefer to not be lynched at all. So, what other candidates can we discuss lynching?

None with me because I'm going to bed. If you think I'm a wolf then vote me. Make a case against me, instead of "He's coming hard after me so he must be a wolf". I presume Eagle will follow. If I'm right about you then you and your wolf buddies tried to set me up so yah boo sucks to you all. If I'm wrong then, well, sorry. I tend to get blinkers on after the first weekend. But you know if I'd chosen to let an important item go without having a chance to track it then I'd be a little bit more understanding of people questioning me. I'd fight my corner but I wouldn't be mystified over how anyone could possibly think I'm a wolf.

[Telle]

Unfortunately I don't have a strong wolfy vibe from anybody.. but let's see.

EagleFan is definitely a villager
Chubby we're 99% sure on
Racer looks very strongly to be a villager based on passing Thor his Hammer

Autumn has me convinced he's very likely a villager

Narcizo, Zinto, MrBug and hoopsguy have all had good vouches for them from others based on either play, voting, or passing of items

So that leaves: ntndeacon, mckerney, mauboy, Barkeep, Lathum, and jeheinz. I could easily vote for any of these, but I don't have any strong feelings for one above the others.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

None with me because I'm going to bed. If you think I'm a wolf then vote me. Make a case against me, instead of "He's coming hard after me so he must be a wolf". I presume Eagle will follow. If I'm right about you then you and your wolf buddies tried to set me up so yah boo sucks to you all. If I'm wrong then, well, sorry. I tend to get blinkers on after the first weekend. But you know if I'd chosen to let an important item go without having a chance to track it then I'd be a little bit more understanding of people questioning me. I'd fight my corner but I wouldn't be mystified over how anyone could possibly think I'm a wolf.

?? When did I ever say that I was beyond speculation? Of course there are questions about me, and I've responded to them. But the fact that you REPEATEDLY state as fact that I passed you the hammer that turned out to be fake is really starting to tick me off, and that of course doesn't give you warm fuzzies about you

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Racer

ntndeacon
Negatives - Throw away vote day one and day two
-Voted for Lathum initially over DV. Extended Lathum’s lead to 4-2 over DV.
-Very quiet since day one. Has fallen to last in post among living players.
Neutral - Switched off Lathum onto DV to avoid a “tie”. Didn’t actually change things much. Instead of Barkeep and Lathum each having 5 votes, DV and Barkeep did instead.
-Tied Autumn up with Thomkal 4-4 at 5:53 on day four.

Ugh, I definitely like Autumn as a candidate but I wouldn't mind seeing someone else I don't feel great about or neutral about on the line as well. I think overall the stuff with Telle is probably a point in his favor if he is a super experienced wolf (is he?).

May very well move by vote back to Autumn, but for now

Unvote Autumn
Vote ntndeacon

Quoted by feelings on him from earlier.

Fringe candidate earlier in the game with a questionable voting record. Somewhat torn between wanting him or Heinz on the block with Autumn.

[mauchow]

Telle please pass the item you have to me. Hoops obviously missed it on Friday and sent it to you instead.

I was trying to be discreet about it but I'm over that now.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Telle please pass the item you have to me. Hoops obviously missed it on Friday and sent it to you instead.

I was trying to be discreet about it but I'm over that now.

So just because hoops had some trust for you, I should?

[Telle]

Heading home now. Back closer to deadline to make whatever self-defense vote I need to and pass my item.

[jeheinz72]

Unvote Mauboy
Vote ntndeacon

[JAG]

Day 5 voting as of post #1865:

3 - Autumn - Barkeep (1761), EagleFan (1815), MrBug708 (1821)
3 - Telle - Lathum (1706), Chubby (1717), Narcizo (1769)
2 - Zinto - Autumn (1718), mauboy (1768)
2 - ntndeacon - Racer (1861), jeheinz72 (1865)

P.S. Thanks for keeping on top of this Telle.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Telle

So just because hoops had some trust for you, I should?

You've misunderstood. Hoops either didn't see what I asked or didn't understand. Pass the item to me because it is my destiny.

[Zinto]

I am definitely for a vote on NTN. He has been extremely quiet(I know, I know so have I) and he is someone who I wanted to gain some momentum as a candidate for a couple days now.

Vote NTN

[mckerney]

I can't say I have a very good read on anyone at this point, so my vote probably isn't going to be much better than a shot in the dark at this point.

Vote ntndeacon

Zinto's the one on the block I'd put the most trust in. I'm not sure what to make of Telle, but I'm not sure coming out with claiming the fake hammer on day one is much of a wolf move. Don't quite trust Autumn or ntn at this point, though ntn looks worse on vote history.

[jeheinz72]

I'm outta here, good huntin' all

[mauchow]

And now a run on ntn.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Holy awesome analysis hoops. Quick question for you....

Can you send me the sword tonight?

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Telle please pass the item you have to me. Hoops obviously missed it on Friday and sent it to you instead.

I was trying to be discreet about it but I'm over that now.

Just to reference the old post.

Either mauboy's Freyr, the real Freyr hasn't disputed mauboy's hinted claim, or the role isn't in the game and Mauboy is a wolf.

Wonder a bit how Mauboy made it through Friday. Maybe the wolves missed his other post? I know I did.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Racer

Just to reference the old post.

Either mauboy's Freyr, the real Freyr hasn't disputed mauboy's hinted claim, or the role isn't in the game and Mauboy is a wolf.

Wonder a bit how Mauboy made it through Friday. Maybe the wolves missed his other post? I know I did.

Good evidence I"m not a wolf then, I definitely caught that post the first time. If it's a fake reveal, it's pretty well done.

[Chubby]

I still think Telle is the best way to go tonight, we'll get info on other players as well.

[Chubby]

If I were thomkal, I'd be pretty pissed at autumn for screwing me over like he did last night...

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Good evidence I"m not a wolf then, I definitely caught that post the first time. If it's a fake reveal, it's pretty well done.

I'm not really sure though. The directions clearly state that the wolves know 1-2 roles that aren't in the game. The directions also state that just because somebody's object is in the game doesn't mean that person is in the game. So there is no way of knowing whether or not Mauboy is Freyr or not without him doing a special action or lynching him.

Honestly, if the wolves found out an object is in the game but that player isn't in the game, it might be to their benefit to fake reveal that role.

All that being said, I don't see how it'd hurt for Telle to send Mauboy the sword even if Mauboy is a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So you think Autumn's actions are pro-villager? Or just talking hypothetically? I don't think that we were close enough to deadline to say he was saving her. I think there was plenty of time for movement.

No, it isn't the sort of thing where I would be inclined to try and build a case for innocence with Autumn ... at least not to the extent that I started working on one for Telle last night. I think Autumn has been around the block enough times to understand that there is some value in counter-intuitive wolf plays.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I still think Telle is the best way to go tonight, we'll get info on other players as well.

I disagree with this. I think there are multiple people with bad voting records out there. Telle's isn't that bad.

Also, if Mauboy is who he says he is (which I'm quite skeptical of), it would make sense not to lynch Telle so Mauboy could get the sword and unlock whatever his power is (assuming he isn't night killed either). If Mauboy then doesn't do anything special in 2 or 3 days, I think it'd be time to seriously think about lynching him.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not wild about the idea of forestalling lynches on two people I've rated as pretty suspicious, but it is hard to argue with the logic Racer laid out.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Racer

I disagree with this. I think there are multiple people with bad voting records out there. Telle's isn't that bad.

Also, if Mauboy is who he says he is (which I'm quite skeptical of), it would make sense not to lynch Telle so Mauboy could get the sword and unlock whatever his power is (assuming he isn't night killed either). If Mauboy then doesn't do anything special in 2 or 3 days, I think it'd be time to seriously think about lynching him.

This is exactly why I'm not changing my vote. Chanelling my best admiral ackbar... It's a trap!

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chubby

This is exactly why I'm not changing my vote. Chanelling my best admiral ackbar... It's a trap!

lol , maybe, but what good does it do for the wolves to keep Telle from getting lynched one extra day?

Also, reading how items work, it doesn't really seem like that sword would do the wolves any good besides keeping it out of Freyr's hands.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Racer

I'm not really sure though. The directions clearly state that the wolves know 1-2 roles that aren't in the game. The directions also state that just because somebody's object is in the game doesn't mean that person is in the game. So there is no way of knowing whether or not Mauboy is Freyr or not without him doing a special action or lynching him.

Honestly, if the wolves found out an object is in the game but that player isn't in the game, it might be to their benefit to fake reveal that role.

All that being said, I don't see how it'd hurt for Telle to send Mauboy the sword even if Mauboy is a wolf.

Oh yes, it could definitely be a fake. What I meant was that, if the wolves were to do that fake, I wouldn't expect that's the way they would do it. It seemed a very villagerish reveal.

[Racer]

Just to update:

Day 5 voting as of post #1882:

4 - ntndeacon - Racer (1861), jeheinz72 (1865), Zinto (1868), mckerney (1869)
3 - Autumn - Barkeep (1761), EagleFan (1815), MrBug708 (1821)
3 - Telle - Lathum (1706), Chubby (1717), Narcizo (1769)
2 - Zinto - Autumn (1718), mauboy (1768)

Still to vote: Hoops, ntndeacon, Telle

[Autumn]

Looking at Racer's analysis on NTN in deciding whether I should move my vote:

ntndeacon
Negatives - Throw away vote day one and day two
-Voted for Lathum initially over DV. Extended Lathum’s lead to 4-2 over DV.
-Very quiet since day one. Has fallen to last in post among living players.
Neutral - Switched off Lathum onto DV to avoid a “tie”. Didn’t actually change things much. Instead of Barkeep and Lathum each having 5 votes, DV and Barkeep did instead.
-Tied Autumn up with Thomkal 4-4 at 5:53 on day four.

I don't see how that Neutral element doesn't count as positive. NTN put DV into a tie for first instead of being in second. That's a positive if I've ever seen one, right?

I happen to know the other neutral is pretty meaningless. So while he's disturbingly quiet, I don't see he has enough negatives to make me vote there.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Looking at Racer's analysis on NTN in deciding whether I should move my vote:

ntndeacon
Negatives - Throw away vote day one and day two
-Voted for Lathum initially over DV. Extended Lathum’s lead to 4-2 over DV.
-Very quiet since day one. Has fallen to last in post among living players.
Neutral - Switched off Lathum onto DV to avoid a “tie”. Didn’t actually change things much. Instead of Barkeep and Lathum each having 5 votes, DV and Barkeep did instead.
-Tied Autumn up with Thomkal 4-4 at 5:53 on day four.

I don't see how that Neutral element doesn't count as positive. NTN put DV into a tie for first instead of being in second. That's a positive if I've ever seen one, right?

I happen to know the other neutral is pretty meaningless. So while he's disturbingly quiet, I don't see he has enough negatives to make me vote there.

Yeah. I guess it would probably be in the positive in the column. Technically, there was a tie so the reason given wasn't really valid but he could have easily been mistaken in thinking that he was ending the tie.

[Autumn]

Well Hoops is a deciding factor here. If no one wants to vote Zinto I'm not sure what to do. I don't think Telle or NTN are particularly strong votes. I'd almost rather vote Telle just because I feel like we need to settle this issue and move on, even though I'm fairly certain it would be a loss for us. But I will switch to NTN if need be, especially if we don't hear from him tonight. He's a low volume poster in general, but we have to have more from him than this. I'll look back at the information today and see, maybe I can find a better candidate than any of those.

[Autumn]

Looking back through Racer's analysis, much of which but not all I agree with, I don't see a lot of people I'd be willing to vote at this point. Mr.Bug strikes me as someone getting a pass for no good reason. Narc is one of the only people on there with no real positive or negative points in either direction. Hoops didn't have a lot in the descript that made me impressed,other than maybe having held items?

I would love to hear people's thoughts on these three folks, well, and Barkeep too who has been on my suspect list all along, though his vote on Darth has kept me from going back to it. What am I missing that makes you not want to vote one of these guys?

[Autumn]

Narc I actually have a gut feel is a villager. He's been on me like white on rice, which unfortunately reminds me of his villager play ;-) I think he tends to overthink as a villager and get too certain about theories. I would guess as a wolf he'd be less certain.

Bug I think I would move to. I was thinking about the mistletoe this weekend, and while he's touched it twice, the first time Eaglefan wasn't revealed, and the second time ...w ell he still has it. I'm a bit worried that if he's a wolf he may be able to use it tonight.

[hoopsguy]

I'm giving MrBug a wider berth than most because of the passed Mistletoe, which he has now done twice if I've kept up with the thread properly. I also don't think a wolf would make such a point of saying he didn't see the mistletoe go where he wanted it to go, as he did on D2 when saying he had passed it to Dubb. He made that point multiple times.

I didn't think that the description Racer provided gave me my due for voting record, for what it is worth. It is still to be seen if Autumn is a good vote, but the timing on the Danny/Darth votes was pretty meaningful.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum is the person who has dropped completely off the radar today. As far as I can tell, the thing that has spoken best for him was being in a close race against Darth.

I'm going to go back and do a quick revisit of Zinto before laying down a vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I understand your thinking but I have to doubt there are two wolves on you. With so many places to hide a vote, if you ended up being a villager who got lynched on day one I am sure people would jump all over your voters. Yes there is almost a hundred percent chance there is one on you but I have to doubt two.

This logic, coupled with his desire to look at the EF voters from D1 (this was a D2 post) struck me as a little odd. There weren't that many candidates out there, and he was making this assumption with the idea that Danny was a villager. Chances are good that there were multiple wolves on a candidate, given a 20 person game. And if Danny was a villager, there would be reasons to think that there were two wolves on him. Or at least as much as there was to be on EF.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This logic, coupled with his desire to look at the EF voters from D1 (this was a D2 post) struck me as a little odd. There weren't that many candidates out there, and he was making this assumption with the idea that Danny was a villager. Chances are good that there were multiple wolves on a candidate, given a 20 person game. And if Danny was a villager, there would be reasons to think that there were two wolves on him. Or at least as much as there was to be on EF.

Yeah. That logic doesn't make any sense. It could easily be something that was just poorly thought out though. I would look at the timing of his votes though and see what you think. I feel like Zinto has some of the best votes out there.

[Racer]

Dola, Narc's vote history is on page 34.

[hoopsguy]

Racer, Zinto has the 7th vote on Zinto on Day 1 - that is obviously a great vote without any context around it. And it takes place with 12 minutes to go, so it wasn't some kind of ninja play.

But if the wolves know that Danny has a "wolf duke" power, how do you think they would play out that evening? Danny was among the leading vote people on Day 1. He is among the short-list to get scanned on any given day, and they have no reason to expect they are going to be getting the seer with the night kill. How would they proceed with using that power?

If it was a wolf duke, you could argue that they were better positioned to use it on Day 2. But if it was a +2 votes, or a "win tie" or some other combination of stuff that played well only in a close race then I think they would want to use it on Day 1 and benefit from trust gained later in the game.

Probably me being paranoid. I just feel like his votes look a whole lot better than I feel about the poster right now and I'm trying to make sense out of that.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, I'm going to go with where I went yesterday and where I trust the overall group of people I'm voting with more than the others.

This ended up being a little bit harder to cast than I thought it would be when I was reading along last night. But I still think this is the best vote for today.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Racer, Zinto has the 7th vote on Zinto on Day 1 - that is obviously a great vote without any context around it. And it takes place with 12 minutes to go, so it wasn't some kind of ninja play.

But if the wolves know that Danny has a "wolf duke" power, how do you think they would play out that evening? Danny was among the leading vote people on Day 1. He is among the short-list to get scanned on any given day, and they have no reason to expect they are going to be getting the seer with the night kill. How would they proceed with using that power?

If it was a wolf duke, you could argue that they were better positioned to use it on Day 2. But if it was a +2 votes, or a "win tie" or some other combination of stuff that played well only in a close race then I think they would want to use it on Day 1 and benefit from trust gained later in the game.

Probably me being paranoid. I just feel like his votes look a whole lot better than I feel about the poster right now and I'm trying to make sense out of that.

Ah okay. That makes more sense then.

[Telle]

So what do we think about this reveal by mauboy? Is there any real risk to me passing him the sword if he is a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Telle

So what do we think about this reveal by mauboy? Is there any real risk to me passing him the sword if he is a wolf?

No more than the random going to you when I strongly suspected you of being a wolf

In all seriousness, Freyr is listed as a good role in the game. So I suspect the reward for pairing a character and his item is greater than the risk of giving it to the wolves.

Looking at the description, I'm guessing that the weapon would make it tough for him to be killed or allow a player kill option. I would still take "the field" over those two guesses, but those seem like the most logical readings of the sword's legend to me.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Racer, Zinto has the 7th vote on Zinto on Day 1 - that is obviously a great vote without any context around it. And it takes place with 12 minutes to go, so it wasn't some kind of ninja play.

But if the wolves know that Danny has a "wolf duke" power, how do you think they would play out that evening? Danny was among the leading vote people on Day 1. He is among the short-list to get scanned on any given day, and they have no reason to expect they are going to be getting the seer with the night kill. How would they proceed with using that power?

If it was a wolf duke, you could argue that they were better positioned to use it on Day 2. But if it was a +2 votes, or a "win tie" or some other combination of stuff that played well only in a close race then I think they would want to use it on Day 1 and benefit from trust gained later in the game.

Probably me being paranoid. I just feel like his votes look a whole lot better than I feel about the poster right now and I'm trying to make sense out of that.

That's the reason for my vote for him. I can't imagine that Danny plays the game he played, and they don't try to get some trust out of it. There has to be wolf votes for him, both on day one when they figure they can wriggle out of it, and day two when they can gain trust for it. So late day one, early day two.

[Barkeep49]

At a certain point voting record can't be explained away away away. I think we've reached that point with Autumn. I hope you join me in voting for him.

This message brought to you by Ctiizens for a Wolf Free Asgard