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Old 08-17-2011, 08:12 AM   #2401
jeheinz72
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Can anyone make a case that somehow Mau/Hoops are villager/villager? I mean assuming that's not the case, it really doesn't even matter who is lynched first/second.

Well, it matters to them I'm sure, but...
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Old 08-17-2011, 08:57 AM   #2402
Telle
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Originally Posted by Racer View Post
I also think Telle could possibly be someone to look at again (probably not someone to vote for tomorrow though). She spends a lot of time in the thread before making her vote (much more so then others). She could be a villager making well thought out votes or a wolf discussing with the other wolves on who to put a vote on.

I think I've played with a couple of games with her before but I don't remember much about her. Does she take time to make votes whether she's a villager or a wolf?

Also, did Zinto ever touch the hammer? That might provide us with a little insight on wolves and items.

Yeah I'm usually a late voter. I have a horrible time deciding when there's not clear-cut evidence. I did try to break that habit in the first few days this game, but admittedly it's a lot easier to make an early vote on Day 1 or 2 than it is when you're this deep in the game.

That said, I just can't get past the fact that it's obvious that Narcizo was not killed by a sword. I do think hoopsguy is worth looking at tomorrow though.

vote mauboy
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Old 08-17-2011, 09:12 AM   #2403
hoopsguy
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Awesome - by all means evaluate me in the light of mauboy/wolf scenario tomorrow. Just make sure you are also considering the people who wanted to try and make me the next lynch instead of him.

If you still think I'm the best choice at that time, so be it. We'll have four wolves down at that point and even with me in Valhalla I think that Ragnarok will be averted.
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Old 08-17-2011, 09:17 AM   #2404
Telle
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Well hoops, I do think you are a strong candidate regardless of whether or not mauboy turns out to be a wolf. And given yesterday's lynch shenanigans, I don't necessarily blame people for voting for you. I honestly think both of you are wolves.
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Old 08-17-2011, 09:20 AM   #2405
Barkeep49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
Can anyone make a case that somehow Mau/Hoops are villager/villager? I mean assuming that's not the case, it really doesn't even matter who is lynched first/second.

Well, it matters to them I'm sure, but...
I don't think their being wolves are really tied to each other so it's possible, if each of their cases of innocence are believed that they are both villagers.

I just don't really buy mau's case for innocence.

And I think there is enough of a case to be made against hoops, independent of the lynching yesterday, that he too is a wolf. Add in the lynch yesterday and I think it's even a better chance that he's a wolf.
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Old 08-17-2011, 09:27 AM   #2406
Telle
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Something that popped into my head this morning.. didn't Chubby state that using one of his powers would result in the reveal of who he was? Interesting that this wasn't true for mauboy. Could be that not all characters had this same aspect for using their powers.. could be that it was only a chance of reveal and not 100%.. but still, it's one more thing to ponder in the case against mauboy.
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Old 08-17-2011, 10:18 AM   #2407
Racer
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Some of this is just restating from yesterday. Some of it isn’t. Quite honestly, I'm not convinced Hoops or Mauboy is a wolf. I think Hoops is slightly more likely to be a wolf then mauboy.

Points for Hoops
-In a close vote, I think Zinto saves one of the players if it’s villager/villager. This draws tremendous heat to the player with the most votes the following day and makes them a likely lynch victim. If they’re a villager, that’s a great thing for the wolves.
- Zinto’s vote actually likely being on EagleFan day one (and not Danny) also might make it a little less likely Hoops or Barkeep are wolves.

Points against Hoops
-It looks like Zinto/wolves saved Hoops from the lynch. This is something I think they would do if he was a wolf.
-If Zinto did in fact vote for EagleFan on day one, they may have felt comfortable having a third vote on him since Zinto appeared to vote for Danny.
-He’s seemed very desperate last night. Voting nightfall has locked in his vote for mauboy. He can’t change that vote now. With four people out of the game there is a lot of additional information to process. That’s a poor villager move in my opinion.

Points for Mauboy
-It seems likely that McKerney baited Zinto into killing him. If that’s the case, then how likely is it that the wolves got to have two kill actions last night? At least for me, it seems unlikely.
-If Mauboy isn’t Freyr, then the sword should still be out there. Reading the rule set, it appears you CAN only keep the item if it belongs to you. If there are two wolves left, it should show up when the other wolf dies. If wolves can’t pass items to each other, it should show up with someone today. If the magic sword shows up again, Mauboy absolutely should be lynched.
-Narcizo’s death sounded different then the other night kills.
-Tied up Zinto with Telle 2-2 at 8:10 am on Day five. He is the last person to unvote Zinto which he did at 9:36 pm.

Points Against Mauboy
-Reading the rule set, the wolves know 1-2 roles that won’t be in the game. Also, the rule set states that even if someone’s item is in the game it doesn’t mean that role is in the game.
-I think it would give the villagers eight roles total. That seems like an awful lot.
-It didn’t sound like Narcizo died from a magic sword.
-Voted for Chubby day one. If the wolves had two votes on Chubby day one, then either mauboy or Lathum is a wolf.
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Old 08-17-2011, 10:32 AM   #2408
MrBug708
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Good analysis
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Old 08-17-2011, 10:41 AM   #2409
mauchow
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I'm not a wolf. I got nothing. I lost my sword yesterday and unless a villager got it to send it back to me I can do nothing extra anymore. The other skill I had was a bg/kill. If a player was attacked while I was protection them my sword would have killed the attacker. It actually sounds a lot like what happened with the Loki death but I did not put that order in. I put an order to kill narcizo. I no longer have my sword and nothing makes sense to me this morning. Either the wolves screwed around with my order and made the kill themselves..they knew I had my eye on narcizo from multiple times I've said narcizos name. Or my sword clonked the Guy in the head and killed them and back then they didn't have the proper tools to figure out cause of death.

I honestly do not know.
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Old 08-17-2011, 10:55 AM   #2410
hoopsguy
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Very Norse to kill a guy by "clonking" in the head. And while I know that there wasn't exactly a CSI culture in those times, I think a shattered skull would not be confused with death by natural causes.

You would have been better served to say you had nothing to do with targeting Narcizo, or that you had targeted mckerney. Those would have been more believable than what you put out last night or what you are suggesting this morning.

Racer, I voted Nightfall because it was clear cut to me that mauboy was a wolf. He has claimed a role that he said he could prove, and he failed to prove it. He stated in the thread that he targeted Narcizo, further tightening the noose around his neck.

I had actually hoped that other people would read this the same way I did and we might get to accelerate this process along and move to the next day. I acknowledge that there is an argument to be made for me as a wolf, but it shouldn't be today.

Continuing to have my play characterized as "desperate" isn't exactly putting me in the frame of mind to want to try and be helpful. As I stated last night, I won't back down and self-vote or anything silly like that but I am getting frustrated with continued suggestions of my state of mind that are categorically untrue.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:14 AM   #2411
Racer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Very Norse to kill a guy by "clonking" in the head. And while I know that there wasn't exactly a CSI culture in those times, I think a shattered skull would not be confused with death by natural causes.

You would have been better served to say you had nothing to do with targeting Narcizo, or that you had targeted mckerney. Those would have been more believable than what you put out last night or what you are suggesting this morning.

Racer, I voted Nightfall because it was clear cut to me that mauboy was a wolf. He has claimed a role that he said he could prove, and he failed to prove it. He stated in the thread that he targeted Narcizo, further tightening the noose around his neck.

I had actually hoped that other people would read this the same way I did and we might get to accelerate this process along and move to the next day. I acknowledge that there is an argument to be made for me as a wolf, but it shouldn't be today.

Continuing to have my play characterized as "desperate" isn't exactly putting me in the frame of mind to want to try and be helpful. As I stated last night, I won't back down and self-vote or anything silly like that but I am getting frustrated with continued suggestions of my state of mind that are categorically untrue.

Sorry, that's might not be the best way to put it. It's just seems like you were spinning in your wheels last night.

I stand by thinking that you were a little quick to vote night fall. That doesn't make you a wolf but I think it would have been best to take a step back and then reevaluate the situation since you were on the block. You voting night fall (because you can't move from mauboy now) is a bad villager move IMO which goes against your great villager reputation.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:15 AM   #2412
mauchow
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If I'm a wolf wouldn't I be trying to take claim to something more believable? I know what I submitted. I don't know how or why the results came through as they did.

And i was merely joking about the clonk in the head. I don't know what happened there.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:19 AM   #2413
Racer
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Mauboy's explanations don't totally make sense today by the way.

Hoops is also taking things such Mauboy is saying such as "or my sword clonked the Guy on the head" and is acting like that's what Mauboy definitively said when in reality Mauboy seems to be just trying to come up with explanations for how Narc died.

I'll say this again. Mauboy should absolutely be lynched if the sword shows up again. The directions state ONLY the person who the object belongs to may keep the object. If it doesn't show up again, then Mauboy is probably who he claims to be.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:21 AM   #2414
Telle
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But if there's two wolves left, mauboy and the other wolf could pass the sword back and forth.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:24 AM   #2415
Racer
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Originally Posted by Telle View Post
But if there's two wolves left, mauboy and the other wolf could pass the sword back and forth.

Very true. But if we catch the other wolf then Mauboy would have no where to pass it to. So if we lynch the other wolf then someone will turn up with the sword the following day.

Of course, if we are in an end game situation, then a wolf might make that they have a sword.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:28 AM   #2416
MrBug708
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If we believe that wolves can pass an item to each other, then I would say Hoops good because he passed the mistletoe to J23
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:30 AM   #2417
mauchow
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Well I certainly do not have the sword anymore. My pm from jag said the sword did not return to me after its night action.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:31 AM   #2418
mauchow
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And I guess if a wolf has it now they certainly will not save my neck.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:31 AM   #2419
Racer
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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
If we believe that wolves can pass an item to each other, then I would say Hoops good because he passed the mistletoe to J23

Did J23 die that night or the following night? Because if J23 died that same night, Hoops could have just claimed that. Did J23 confirm receiving it?
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:38 AM   #2420
MrBug708
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Originally Posted by Racer View Post
Did J23 die that night or the following night? Because if J23 died that same night, Hoops could have just claimed that. Did J23 confirm receiving it?

Yup. J23 died the next night
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:46 AM   #2421
Racer
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Yup. J23 died the next night

Okay that's a point in Hoops favor then (I think).
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:49 AM   #2422
Racer
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I should add though is for all we know the wolves have already weaponized mistletoe. It would seem the object would likely disappear from the game though if that were the case.

Reasons for holding off on killing EagleFan would be to maximize the number of people who would touch it which would make it difficult to trace it back to who used it to kill him.

Also, can we trace mistletoe back to day one? If Thor's hammer was duplicated, it seems possible we're passing around fake mistletoe right now.
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Old 08-17-2011, 11:55 AM   #2423
MrBug708
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I started with the mistletoe. I passed it to Dubb, but it was randomized to Hoops. It passed passed (said and confirmed by both Hoops and J23). I believe I received it next. I passed it to Racer, who passed it back to me, who received it again. While it seems unlikely, I would imagine "weaponizing" it would take a night action and possibly not get passed for a night.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:04 PM   #2424
Racer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG View Post
Roles:
Mistletoe - When Loki learned this was the only earthly substance that could harm Balder, he crafted some into an arrow (some say a spear) and guided the blind god Hodor to shoot at Balder with the arrow, slaying the beloved god.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
I started with the mistletoe. I passed it to Dubb, but it was randomized to Hoops. It passed passed (said and confirmed by both Hoops and J23). I believe I received it next. I passed it to Racer, who passed it back to me, who received it again. While it seems unlikely, I would imagine "weaponizing" it would take a night action and possibly not get passed for a night.

I think Chubby's may have happened automatically and immediately though? Also, I guess it may not need to be "weaponized". I'm just conjecturing that based on the fact that the directions state about it being put into an arrow.

The thing is though, if it needs to be "weaponized" , it may not use all of it since the directions say "some was put into an arrow". Thus the item could remain in the game and continue to be passed around. Also, as I previously stated, there's a small chance if the wolves did get it along the way, they also created a duplicate of it when they used it.

Also, from the looks of it, there was no night kill the night Hoops had mistletoe. So if you have to weaponize mistletoe and it takes the place of a night , then Hoops doesn't look good.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:08 PM   #2425
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
And I guess if a wolf has it now they certainly will not save my neck.

You have that backwards. If a wolf has the sword, they won't say a word in order to back up your claim that it is out of the game by way of usage.

If a villager has the sword, and speaks up, hopefully you hang with no further questions asked.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:10 PM   #2426
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by Racer View Post
I think Chubby's may have happened automatically and immediately though? Also, I guess it may not need to be "weaponized". I'm just conjecturing that based on the fact that the directions state about it being put into an arrow.

The thing is though, if it needs to be "weaponized" , it may not use all of it since the directions say "some was put into an arrow". Thus the item could remain in the game and continue to be passed around. Also, as I previously stated, there's a small chance if the wolves did get it along the way, they also created a duplicate of it when they used it.

Also, from the looks of it, there was no night kill the night Hoops had mistletoe. So if you have to weaponize mistletoe and it takes the place of a night , then Hoops doesn't look good.

So I weaponized it while passing it to J23, a confirmed villager? C'mon, this is starting to border on ridiculous again.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:11 PM   #2427
Racer
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
You have that backwards. If a wolf has the sword, they won't say a word in order to back up your claim that it is out of the game by way of usage.

If a villager has the sword, and speaks up, hopefully you hang with no further questions asked.

I'm the one who is saying it has to be out of the game if Mauboy is who he says he is. Mauboy is acting like he think it could still be in the game which worries me somewhat. If Mauboy is a wolf, then I'm guessing the other wolf has it now unless there is some rule that says you can't pass items from wolf to wolf.

But yes, if anyone has the sword now, please speak up because it means Mauboy is probably a wolf.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:12 PM   #2428
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
I did put a hurt on narcizo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Telle View Post
Well I think you have some explaining to do. As I just stated, it sure doesn't sound like he was killed by a sword.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
It is a magic sword.

Just in case people are forgetting mauboy's initial claims after stuff went down. His current version, likely after being coached up by the other wolf/wolves, suggests that he doesn't know what happened. But that wasn't the tune he was signing last night.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:13 PM   #2429
hoopsguy
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I'm the one who is saying it has to be out of the game if Mauboy is who he says he is. Mauboy is acting like he think it could still be in the game which worries me somewhat. If Mauboy is a wolf, then I'm guessing the other wolf has it now unless there is some rule that says you can't pass items from wolf to wolf.

But yes, if anyone has the sword now, please speak up because it means Mauboy is probably a wolf.

But he is the one saying wolves must have it and are staying quiet about it. Which is the reverse of your argument.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:14 PM   #2430
MrBug708
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Originally Posted by Racer View Post

Also, from the looks of it, there was no night kill the night Hoops had mistletoe. So if you have to weaponize mistletoe and it takes the place of a night , then Hoops doesn't look good.

Not a bad theory. I just think the mistletoe doesn't get intentionally passed though (provided wolves can't pass to each other), but randomly sent out with the hope that it lands with another wolf
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:14 PM   #2431
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
unvote mau

I'll think it over for the night.


vote hoops

I appreciate the deep thought you've given mau, and that you're resting your vote on me while pondering his story.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:18 PM   #2433
Racer
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So I weaponized it while passing it to J23, a confirmed villager? C'mon, this is starting to border on ridiculous again.

Hmm good point. I think the rules state you can keep an item if it belongs to you. So would mistletoe belong to any of the wolves or just Loki is the question. The direction state Loki crafted some into an arrow though which suggests mistletoe might still exist in the game even after the wolves got it. That's what I'm trying to discuss here. I'd lean towards it no longer being the game though just like it seems would be the case for every other item.

The fact that it was randomized to you and you still came out and said you had it is another point in your favor here. If someone has passed it to you then really you would haven no choice but to come out.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:19 PM   #2434
hoopsguy
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Current vote count:
mau - BK (2329), hoops (2342), heinz (2398), Telle (2402)
hoops - EF (2337), Racer (2376)

For those tracking votes/unvotes, EF had one on mauboy before flipping over to me.

Mauboy will clearly be voting for me, so I'm hoping folks like MrBug are going to end up voting with me. We've seen the wolves swing 1 vote races twice already (once for wolf Danny, once for villager me) and I would prefer not to give them the chance to do it a third time if the power lies with someone besides Loki.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:19 PM   #2435
EagleFan
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I still think hoops is a wolf so don;t read my unvoting him as a sign that I think he is good.

When did mau say he was going to attack Narc? Before or after the deadline?
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:20 PM   #2436
hoopsguy
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Hmm good point. I think the rules state you can keep an item if it belongs to you. So would mistletoe belong to any of the wolves or just Loki is the question. The direction state Loki crafted some into an arrow though which suggests mistletoe might still exist in the game even after the wolves got it. That's what I'm trying to discuss here. I'd lean towards it no longer being the game though just like it seems would be the case for every other item.

The fact that it was randomized to you and you still came out and said you had it is another point in your favor here. If someone has passed it to you then really you would haven no choice but to come out.

In fairness, I had no idea if it came to me directly or randomized. I wasn't told who passed and going from memory I asked about it in the thread almost immediately.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:20 PM   #2437
Telle
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The fact that it was randomized to you and you still came out and said you had it is another point in your favor here. If someone has passed it to you then really you would haven no choice but to come out.

But did he know that it was randomized before he admitted having it? Perhaps he assumed it was passed to him. I'll have to try to find this section of posts to figure this out...
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:20 PM   #2438
EagleFan
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This is where knowing the exact rules about an item would make a decision so much easier.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:21 PM   #2439
Barkeep49
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What about the hammer? Hoops how do you explain real hammer/fake hammer?
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:21 PM   #2440
Racer
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I still think hoops is a wolf so don;t read my unvoting him as a sign that I think he is good.

When did mau say he was going to attack Narc? Before or after the deadline?

I'm not sure if he ever said he was. He said today he's mentioned his suspicion of him for awhile in his posts.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:25 PM   #2441
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I'm not sure if he ever said he was. He said today he's mentioned his suspicion of him for awhile in his posts.

This is where things start to crumble depending on the answer. If he said it prior to the deadline than we have at least the fact that something happened to Narc and the mckerney/Zinto attack also happened. If he said it afterwards then it doesn't mean much as the wolves already would know what happened with the attacks.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:30 PM   #2442
Telle
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Does anyone want to cop to passing me an item?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
If someone knew that Mistletoe would not kill the known villager (EagleFan) that might be a good idea. The legends say that it will kill him, but who knows if it would kill him if passed to him or if it had to fall into the hands of the wolves first to weaponize it?

Either way, passing mistletoe to a villager sure seems like a good thing to do and the kind of thing that might buy a little bit of trust. I would sure like someone to trust if we have in fact lost our seer when we saw Odin fall.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
It would be great if the person with the mistletoe comes forward. Please don't pass it yet. We can work out a plan from there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
I was given the mistletoe to start. It might be no longer in the game now though

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Hmm, I've got the mistletoe - thought I was pretty transparent with my hints earlier - so I'm confused by these comments. I wanted to trust the person who came forward saying they had the mistletoe, but these comments don't make it easy for me to extend that trust blindly.

Also, I likely won't be around much at all today so I'm not sure how I'll collaborate on this. I'll try to take my laptop with me over lunch so I can sneak a peek at what EF's plan might be, and maybe get in an early vote.

Ok, here's how it went down. hoopsguy comes out and says he has an item right away, but doesn't say what he is. He then joins the discussion of mistletoe that comes up without saying he has it. THEN MrBug says he had it, but that it might no longer be in the game (believing he may have accidentally killed dubb with it). That's when hoopsguy comes out and says that he has the mistletoe.

So he didn't admit to having it first thing... but, when he did admit to it, the idea was out there that it could be gone from the game altogether. So as a wolf there would be no incentive to admitting to having it, I would think. Other than maybe as a trust builder?
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:32 PM   #2443
EagleFan
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vote mau

My head is going to pop if I try to think about this at the moment.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:35 PM   #2445
EagleFan
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For the record, if this helps with more information.

I now have the sword, that is why I voted for mau immediately last night.

I wanted to see how things played out over the early part of the day before saying anything (and to give hoops a little more heat to see what developed).
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:41 PM   #2446
Racer
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Unvote Hoopsguy
Vote Mauboy1

Since the sword is still in the game it doesn't really make how mauboy could be Freyr.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:43 PM   #2447
jeheinz72
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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
For the record, if this helps with more information.

I now have the sword, that is why I voted for mau immediately last night.

I wanted to see how things played out over the early part of the day before saying anything (and to give hoops a little more heat to see what developed).

Did it say anything when you got the sword?

Sorry if this is a naive question, but I haven't had an item yet so I have no idea if it's a bland PM or what
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:43 PM   #2448
Telle
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Votes as of post #2446:

6 - mauboy - Barkeep (2329), hoopsguy (2342), jeheinz (2398), Telle (2402), EagleFan (2443), Racer (2446)

Nightfall: hoopsguy

Yet to vote: mauboy, Lathum, MrBug
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:45 PM   #2449
Racer
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I also logically, don't understand why a wolf wouldn't pass the sword to another wolf since the item rules seem to suggest there being only unlisted rule which I'm guessing to be in regards to "fake" items.

That being said, the wolves may have not thoroughly thought this out. That seems like it'd be the simpler explanation since the rules also suggest you get to keep your own item once you have it.

The fact that it reappears really to me suggest there is a strong probability that mauboy isn't Freyr.
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Old 08-17-2011, 12:45 PM   #2450
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Other than Dubb, the first 11 people to sign up for this game have died
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