The Stock Market thread

[Kodos]

You had a good run, old friend.

[Edward64]

Yup. It was fun.

[spleen1015]

Hasn't it been dead for weeks though?

[molson]

All of the gains since Trump took office gone.

If we get past all this by summer and fall and get a predictable economic boost then, that has to be pretty good for Trump in November I'd think.

[Arles]

There will be a boost between May and August - good luck predicting when though. Better to hold on and hope to wait it out at this point.

[Edward64]

Got to be honest, I don't fear this as much as what I remembered during the GR.

The GR came on the heels of dot-com crash, 9/11 shock, so it was like 3 bad markets in 10 years with the GR as the cherry on the top ... and we came back from that.

I call that my lost decade of investment growth.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Got to be honest, I don't fear this as much as what I remembered during the GR.

The GR came on the heels of dot-com crash, 9/11 shock, so it was like 3 bad markets in 10 years with the GR as the cherry on the top ... and we came back from that.

I call that my lost decade of investment growth.

Win for trump?

[Galaril]

I am holding my breath I think we still are not close to the bottom. I won’t be shocked to see us looking at sub 15000 DOW at the beginning of April.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Hasn't it been dead for weeks though?

Welp, it became official over the last two days.

[RainMaker]

Did they dump half a trillion in just for a 15 minute rally today?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Win for trump?

Not quite Jade Helm fiasco, so yes

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I am holding my breath I think we still are not close to the bottom. I won’t be shocked to see us looking at sub 15000 DOW at the beginning of April.

I can see that considering we haven't reached the peak of FUD yet IMO.

My guess is once we know how bad it is, things will calm down some. And that starts with reliable/trusted metrics based on testing - # infected, # dead. Then start of a sustained recovery once good news on vaccine is out.

[JPhillips]

Asian markets getting hammered.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Asian markets getting hammered.

Nothing like our nice 10% today.

And Shanghai is only down 1.52%, anyone know why China is not taking big hits?

[Edward64]

... and the Dow is trying to mount a comeback!

I'm guessing this one is a dead cat bounce.

[JPhillips]

Why did cruise ship stocks rebound some?

[STK]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Why did cruise ship stocks rebound some?

because we live in a clown world

[JPhillips]

Not a good opening.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Not a good opening.

Bit of an understatement.

[QuikSand]

Shot the last legit bullet at arguably the worst possible time, all to bow to pressure from the clown-in-chief. S&P opens 250 down. Of course it does.

[NobodyHere]

There goes dreams of an early retirement.

[cartman]

I wonder if Trump will send a signed copy of today's DJIA chart to Lou Dobbs as well.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Shot the last legit bullet at arguably the worst possible time, all to bow to pressure from the clown-in-chief. S&P opens 250 down. Of course it does.

The shame of it is that, like so many of the Trump/GOP-caused problems, the subtleties of the situation are one step removed from a soundbite. So I do not think that the voters will send the right message in response to this demented mismanagement of the situation.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

There goes dreams of an early retirement.

Yeah, my guess 2-3 years to get back to where we were. But I can imagine those that just went into early retirement is sweating quite a bit also.

[Vegas Vic]

My wife and I have been pretty lucky (so far). We’re close to early retirement, and our 401K’s (2020 target date) haven’t been hit nearly as hard as some of our younger coworkers. It’s down about 10% for the year to date, and up about 6% for the past one year interval.

Obviously, if the market continues to tank throughout the year, we’ll probably have to continue to work for a few more years.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

My wife and I have been pretty lucky (so far). We’re close to early retirement, and our 401K’s (2020 target date) haven’t been hit nearly as hard as some of our younger coworkers. It’s down about 10% for the year to date, and up about 6% for the past one year interval.

Obviously, if the market continues to tank throughout the year, we’ll probably have to continue to work for a few more years.

We are in the same boat, I was on track to retire at 59 1/2 with plans to take a more "enjoyable" job to supplement the lower retirement dividend. That is still 2+ years away but not looking good ATM.

[Edward64]

Okay, are we at the "capitulation" stage yet? Or do those old norms/patterns get tossed out because this is a pandemic?

[Vegas Vic]

According to the technical definition, we emerged from the bear market today. Of course, it won't last, but it sounds bizarre anyway.

US stocks surge despite the worst jobless claims data in history: March 26, 2020

[albionmoonlight]

There's big money to be made right now, but I think that it's in the same way that there's big money to be made at a craps table.

I haven't even looked at our 401(k)s because i don't want to be tempted to do anything.

I know enough to know I can't beat the market in normal times. Now? I'd lose my shirt three times over.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

There's big money to be made right now, but I think that it's in the same way that there's big money to be made at a craps table.

I haven't even looked at our 401(k)s because i don't want to be tempted to do anything.

I know enough to know I can't beat the market in normal times. Now? I'd lose my shirt three times over.

It will be interesting to see what happens when we work our way out of this pandemic, which isn't going to happen anytime soon.

With that being said, I don't think the comparisons some are making to 2008 are necessarily applicable. The recent market crash is the result of a self-imposed shutdown of the economy. In 2008, the very core of our economy came crashing down like a house of cards with the collapse of the housing market and financial institutions.

[Edward64]

Getting whiplash with all these market gyrations.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Getting whiplash with all these market gyrations.

There is money to be made. 10%+ swings in either direction. If you can time these right, you can do so well.

But I just don't get how one could time those swings with anything better than random chance.

[Galaril]

So looks like the bull market and recession at least on the market is over !? The market finding any comfort with 10s of millions of people being laid off is mind boggling. Plus, I know some our dec
Acting victory and a flattening of the curve but we had the second highest day for deaths and positive results yesterday. I here a lot of people saying hat this was just the flu an we will be back to business in a few weeks. I just don’t get it.

[Kodos]

Yeah, yesterday's results were mystifying for sure.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So looks like the bull market and recession at least on the market is over !? The market finding any comfort with 10s of millions of people being laid off is mind boggling. Plus, I know some our dec
Acting victory and a flattening of the curve but we had the second highest day for deaths and positive results yesterday. I here a lot of people saying hat this was just the flu an we will be back to business in a few weeks. I just don’t get it.

Strong indications from the WH and Congress that another $1T + stimulus bill is coming.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...ulus-trillion/

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Strong indications from the WH and Congress that another $1T + stimulus bill is coming.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...ulus-trillion/

Yeah but I mean so what. I know those stimulus bills are more about helping the market than really any tangible relief for average people. People I know who are looking for help still have not got SBA loans or any money from the government and unemployment is swamped with all the claims.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Yeah, yesterday's results were mystifying for sure.

The market's making a bet on what the economy will look like 6 months from now

[sterlingice]

A couple of my coworkers like to talk in hushed tones about their retirement (that they have individual stocks and they treat like gambling for big kids). It's like watching degenerate gamblers: always talking about their great hits and their bad beats ("I sold Tesla right before it really took off") but never talking about the baths they take from their less sexy picks.



SI

[albionmoonlight]

I would enjoy having some play-around money to put in the market and try and pick individual stocks. It would be like gambling, and gambling is fun.

I can't imagine doing that with the money I actually need to retire . . .

My risk tolerance is WAY too low.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I would enjoy having some play-around money to put in the market and try and pick individual stocks. It would be like gambling, and gambling is fun.

I can't imagine doing that with the money I actually need to retire . . .

My risk tolerance is WAY too low.

It's not really gambling if you can actually afford to lose. You gotta NEED that win!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I would enjoy having some play-around money to put in the market and try and pick individual stocks. It would be like gambling, and gambling is fun.

I can't imagine doing that with the money I actually need to retire . . .

My risk tolerance is WAY too low.

Why worry?

If you pick a bad stock then just double your money on the next one you pick!

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Why worry?

If you pick a bad stock then just double your money on the next one you pick!

[Kodos]

If it's going poorly, just jump into some leveraged ETFs. What could go wrong?!?

[JPhillips]

My quarterly statement today wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. I guess that's good news.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

It's not really gambling if you can actually afford to lose. You gotta NEED that win!

I don't remember the exact quote, but someone once asked Arnold Palmer or Jack Nicklaus about the pressure of making a putt to win a $10,000 tournament.

And he responded that pressure is not having to make a putt to win $10,000. Pressure is having to make a putt to beat your buddy when you bet him $100 and you have only $50 in your pocket.

[sterlingice]

Jobless claims: Another 5.245 million Americans file for unemployment benefits

I still don't get how stocks could be like "Hey, let's open up after the latest round of 5M unemployed". I mean, I know they have to have that number baked in a little. But there was nowhere that 22M jobless claims in a month was baked into the numbers where we're only 20% off of an irrational market high.

SI

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Jobless claims: Another 5.245 million Americans file for unemployment benefits

I still don't get how stocks could be like "Hey, let's open up after the latest round of 5M unemployed". I mean, I know they have to have that number baked in a little. But there was nowhere that 22M jobless claims in a month was baked into the numbers where we're only 20% off of an irrational market high.

SI

I'm guessing because the people at the top of the food chain really haven't been impacted by this as much as others. We might see a steady, weakness in the markets the rest of the year as companies start to experience the after effects, and the stimulus money expires. A lot will depend on another stimulus. The market is a measure of public money after all, and as long as the government is going to keep printing and giving it away there will be some legs under the markets.

[NobodyHere]

I have to wonder what people will do when the lockdowns are lifted.

Will they be timid in going out to restaurants and crowded entertainment events?

Or will they go with a gusto and pack everything and take vacations. The majority of Americans are still employed and I bet a lot of them have money saved up waiting to be burned.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I have to wonder what people will do when the lockdowns are lifted.

Will they be timid in going out to restaurants and crowded entertainment events?

Or will they go with a gusto and pack everything and take vacations. The majority of Americans are still employed and I bet a lot of them have money saved up waiting to be burned.

I think Ben answered that one in the other thread. Some of both, with a vast majority being very conservative and hesitant, for health and financial reasons.

[albionmoonlight]

I am not sensing much gusto from my friends and family.

People seem to get that (1) this is spreading asymptomaticly, (2) it can make a decent percentage of people go-to-the-hospital sick, and (3) we don't have anything like the testing infrastructure in place to try and use that as a way to soft reopen.

The governors could all "reopen" everything, but it won't matter if people don't come. You can't make someone sit in a movie theater full of strangers in a world with inadequate testing and contact tracing.