Hurricane Sandy/Nor'easter?

[Ben E Lou]

Some models that have been reliable in the past at this date range are suggesting that this sucker is going to emerge from the Bahamas and take a NW turn, coming ashore somewhere between VA and NYC, creating potentially historic snowfalls. Wade's weather savant boy is practically peeing his pants, it would appear: Update Your Browser | Facebook

Anyway, good luck northeast. Hope this turns out to sea.

[Thomkal]

well at least we'll have something on the news besides politics/election talk.

[sterlingice]

I'm guessing this is 99L? The European model has it doing some odd things. The most likely scenario is still that it just blows harmlessly out to the Atlantic like your typical October storm

SI

[JPhillips]

After last year I've had enough of October snowstorms.

Fuck off 99L.

[Alan T]

Awesome. Every winter I ask myself why I don't move back to Georgia

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Awesome. Every winter I ask myself why I don't move back to Georgia

Because every summer you'd be asking yourself why you don't move back to Massachusetts?

[gstelmack]

Come to North Carolina, every season lasts 3 months...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Because every summer you'd be asking yourself why you don't move back to Massachusetts?

I am ok with air conditioners, and I don't have to shovel sunshine off of my driveway!

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Come to North Carolina, every season lasts 3 months...

Richmond was like that, too. Absolutely gorgeous weather

SI

[Suicane75]

Ughh, I'm too old for this shit.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Come to North Carolina, every season lasts 3 months...

Yeah, we have 4 seasons.

Emerald Green Spring
Sauna Summer
Multicolored Fall
Brown Mudbowl Winter

[EagleFan]

99L? When I search that I only find results dated 2011?

[sterlingice]

Aw, she became Tropical Depression 18 this morning:

Tropical Depression Eighteen: GFS Ensemble Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Aw, she became Tropical Depression 18 this morning:

Tropical Depression Eighteen: GFS Ensemble Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

SI

Yeah. It was 99L when I posted this. It became TD18 at the 11am update.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

...Wade's weather savant boy is practically peeing his pants...

Alllllrighty then.

Originally Posted by Crazy Weather Savant Boy, 5 Minutes Ago

*** ALERT *** ALERT 12Z MONDAY Midday CANADIAN MODEL... has just comes in... Model shows 944 MB Hurricance super bombs freakish thing over ocean City MD at 144 hr on the Morning of OCT 29

[Ben E Lou]

"super bombs freakish thing"

[sterlingice]

What is the name of said Crazy Weather Savant Boy?

SI

[Logan]

Returning to NYC from Florida on the 29th. Guessing I should keep an eye out on this.

[Ben E Lou]

I don't know his name. He has little/no concern for silly things like grammar, punctuation, and decorum, but when it comes to long-term forecasts of these types of storms, he's been consistently better than the NHC since Wade turned me on to him a couple of years or so ago.

FB Page: Update Your Browser | Facebook
Web Site: http://www.wxrisk.com/

If nothing else, his rants and trash-talk about how the NWS forecasters are incompetent morons are certainly entertaining.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Logan

Returning to NYC from Florida on the 29th. Guessing I should keep an eye out on this.

I fly back to NJ from SF on the 29th... Definitely will keep an eye on this later this week.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Awesome. Every winter I ask myself why I don't move back to Georgia

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am ok with air conditioners, and I don't have to shovel sunshine off of my driveway!

you'd miss the accents

[Leroy Veritas]

Tropical storm Sandy scenarios: Northeast smash or out to sea most likely - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

[JPhillips]

That's a good screen name.

[sterlingice]

I think this guy has the best take for now:

Originally Posted by article

Henry Margusity, AccuWeather: “I think at this point with the divergence of the models, anyone talking about historic storms or epic storms based on one model is foolishness. When we start seeing agreement in the modeling, which by the way will take a few more days, we can start talking about impacts. Right now, my prediction is that a storm will develop along the coast and most likely the major cities from D.C. on north will get rain and gusty winds. How strong the storm will be remains to be seen.”

It's not as sexy but it's the truth. If things fall just wrong, then there's going to be a huge storm in the northeast in about a week and we'll have a lot better idea in a couple of days. It's still much more likely it won't happen and the danger of prematurely scaring people is more dangerous in creating false alarms than the danger of the actual storm right now.

SI

[JPhillips]

I suppose you didn't stockpile water and tuna before Y2K either.

How did that work out for you, Mr. Calm and Rational?

[kcchief19]

Way to be a buzz kill, SI. In this election year, I demand might rights to freak out and act irrationally!

[General Mike]

Stuck in NJ on October 29th. Not looking forward to it.

[Solecismic]

It's a good thing Henry Margusity doesn't live in Italy, or he'd be facing a long prison sentence if Sandy turns out to be more than a red-headed child's annoying little dog.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's a good thing Henry Margusity doesn't live in Italy, or he'd be facing a long prison sentence if Sandy turns out to be more than a red-headed child's annoying little dog.

Saw the earthquake story, eh?

The new models are all over the map (literally! and I used that correctly!)







SI

[Ben E Lou]

Wade's boy actually posted something reasonably coherent, with minimal trash-talk for him.

http://www.facebook.com/notes/wxrisk...38009656246298

As sandy begins to strengthen and reaches hurricane intensity the situation for the East Coast is looking worse and worse. As I've been insisting and trying to explain over the past 5 days... What has me so concerned about the scenario is the wave physics of the overall pattern and not what anyone ndividual models is dpeicting. Remember weather models resembled the atmosphere... The atmosphere does not resemble weather models. However more and more of the model data is beginning to latch onto the potential of this major and historic East Coast event .This first image shows the hurricane models.

I have received a number E mails and posts here in the facebook page and on the website and email where people have wondered why I am forecasting the system -- SANDY or SANDY / severe coastal storm -- coming to a coast when all the hurricane models are taking it out to sea. Again because of the overall pattern which forces the system to turn NW I know that the weather models are going to latch onto this and begin to show a much different scenario. The problem is that this particular range the ONLY model which is very good of this sort of thing is the European model.However this morning the hurricane model show a dramatic and massive change. This image shows comparison between hurricane models from last night - 18z OCT 23 and this morning. Notice the all now show the HOOK or the turn to the NW.



Over the next several days and model runs the hurricane models will continue to show this HOOK with greater and greater frequency and a sharper and sharper turn to the northwest. I can say this was confidence because as we get closer to the event the models will begin to detect the implications of the pattern -- the HUGE Block over Greenland (-NAO) combined with the any huge OCEAN LOW trapped out in the north Central Atlantic Ocean . These two features .... As I have been saying for five days now ... will prevents SANDY from going off the coast and out into the sea . The worst case scenario continues to show up on the European model which has a reputation and deservedly so for handling East Coast hurricanes and winter storms the best. But besides the European model the navy model which two years ago saw an upgrade and started using the 4DVAR software.... Also shows an exceptional and severe event for the Northeast U.S. Coast. Not surprisingly the Canadian and the GFS models which do not have 4dvar of much further to the east.


This image shows the early morning Wednesday European model. The track has indeed shifted back to the west a little bit which has huge implications for everybody. As you can see the model shows that on the evening of the 29th central and Eastern Virginia central and Eastern Maryland as well as Delaware will see winds at 850 MB -- 1 mile up above the ground-- over 80 MPH per hour and during the times of heavy rains some of these winds will get pulled down to the surface. All this being said in the worse case scenario... This would be the worst coastal storm/ hurricane to hit the New Jersey Coast New York City since 1900 and the worst event for Long Island and Connecticut since the hurricane of 1938.


The fact that this is a full Moon event along with strong Southeast Wind driving the water inland and the track nw into the coast --- is extremely dangerous and scary looking for that area of the country. FOR VA / MD ... if we assumie that the track does not shift further to the west... Which is not a safe assumption to make at this time... There will be significant differences in weather conditions from this system depending on where you are located in Virginia and North Carolina and Maryland.

It is imperative that you get the correct forecast for your area and do not use a forecast say from Lynchburg if you are in Emporia Or say Leesburg.

• The entire western third of Virginia including locations such a Charlottesville Lynchburg Roanoke Danville Martinsville and the southwest corner will not see much from the system.
• In Central Virginia.... From Washington, DC and Winchester down into Warrenton and Fredericksburg and west of Richmond will be the transition zone. Winds here will be significantly stronger -- 20 to 40 MOH -- and the rain will be heavier with anywhere from 2 TO 4 inches of rain likely ...but it could be more.
• From interstate 95 east to the coast and the Chessy bay area'.. conditions dramatically worsen based upon the data I am seeing right now. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches or more likely and the winds will gist up to 60 mph inland and much higher on the coast.

Again this is the worst case scenario that I am presenting not necessarily my final forecast.

[JPhillips]

I'm enough inland that I'm not terribly worried about winds, but the flooding from Irene last year was devastating to a lot of small communities in upstate NY. We really don't need a repeat of that.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm enough inland that I'm not terribly worried about winds, but the flooding from Irene last year was devastating to a lot of small communities in upstate NY. We really don't need a repeat of that.

Amen to that my upstate NY brethren

[Ben E Lou]

Upgraded to Hurricane at the 11am update.

[Ben E Lou]

..and as the traditionally-used models, and therefore most forecasters, start to move more and more toward the left turn, Crazy Trash-Talking Weather Savant Boy steps up the trash talk...

backup

A snippet...

The idea here is to hope that the crappie GFS model finally gets a clue about the basic laws of the universe and physics with all this new additional information in the model. The problem is that you can only shine up a pile of SHIT so much. So all the high expectations were hope that this new data is somehow going to affect the GFS model over the next few runs usually ends up being a total bust and let down.

Let us take a look about why the GFS model is screwing this up so badly. And this is really important because so many TV meteorologists both within the weather channel and on your local media and even on many private web pages rely extremely heavily on the GFS weather model.

And because the GFS model even this afternoon continues to show a hurricane staying well off the coast until it gets up into southeastern New England... Many of the TV & Media outlets up and down the East Coast are downplaying the threat or talking about the very complicated situation or expressing some other boilerplate expression of uncertainty.

[wade moore]

God I love this guy.

Following weather was never as entertaining as it has been since I've started following him.

[JPhillips]

He's such a dick to his readers, too. He's like Dennis Hooper from Blue Velvet.

[Kodos]

This isn't good news for those of us in coastal Connecticut...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Following weather was never as entertaining as it has been since I've started following him.

I didn't pay much more than token attention to tropical weather that wasn't going to affect the Lowcountry significantly until you turned me on to this guy.

His latest update (from about 30 minutes ago) has some good lines. It's long:

http://www.facebook.com/notes/wxrisk...38357316211532

The important stuff and some of his trash talk from this update...

The threat to the Middle Atlantic Coast continues to increase on the morning and overnight model data even though the operational GFS continues to be a clueless inept weather model.

I think is significant that the European and the navy model with a better physics package both show the same solution but the GFS and CMC which do not have this upgraded physics package... are much much further to the east.

Let me repeat that. Not a single one of the new hurricane models show sandy going out to sea without making an impact on land. WELCOME TO 5 DAYS AGO. But in addition there is a cluster of tracks showing a land fall in the Delmarva which again identical to the tracks shown by the 0z European model the 0z navy model and the 0z GFDL.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? The threat to the Middle Atlantic Coast is increasing. The media coverage should begin to really ramp up here today as the hurricane models are now shifted all towards the coast. This remains a unusual event not only because it's late October but because SANDY m is going to turn sharply to northwest then west northwest as it strikes the coast. I think .. but I do not know for sure yet-- think it's going to strike on the Delmarva but there still a lot of variability here and it's possible that SANDY could make landfall in New Jersey or even New York City or Long Island. Assuming that it does make landfall in the Delmarva --- the lower Maryland Eastern shore and Delaware peninsula for those of you who are geographically deprived -- that area can expect conditions at least as bad as what you saw with Isabel in 2003 and probably worse. Areas such as Ocean City Maryland Cape May New Jersey wallops island Virginia could take a devastating hit. The approach of the coast from the southwest of the northeast will drive a wall of water into the entire Delmarva region as well as Southern New Jersey and Hampton roads.... and to a lesser degree over northeastern North Carolina Northern New Jersey and New York City Long Island. The full Moon on the 29th is going to make things particularly bad and damaging along the coast with the storm tide. Winds could cost up to 90 mph in many locations


This also is a serious threat for the northern neck of Virginia as well as the wash DC Baltimore metro area and all of eastern Virginia including Hampton roads and Richmond. In all of these areas winds could reach up to 75 miles per hour in gusts during the height of the storm which will be fairly prolonged. The rainfall amounts will be at least 5 to 10 inches and these areas.


Significant rain and wind will push into all of Virginia and the interior portions of northeastern North Carolina as well as all of Maryland New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

The snowstorm potential here remains high especially in the elevation above 800 or 1000 feet. It is still too early to know which portion of the interior Middle Atlantic mountain areas are going to see the heavy snow but somebody is gonna get really crushed with an early season snowfall.

[sterlingice]

I just don't know if I could read a guy who is that much of a dick for more than a short period of time

SI

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

He's such a dick to his readers, too. He's like Dennis Hooper from Blue Velvet.

YY - he totally lashes out at his readers.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I just don't know if I could read a guy who is that much of a dick for more than a short period of time

SI

Well, I only pay attention to him during major events - tropical storms/hurricanes and snowstorms.

It helps a lot that, in general, he's more right than other sources and earlier. I was talking to ben and here's what usually happens:

1. A week or so out he starts calling for a decent potential for a huge event.
2. At that time, mainstream people are saying it will be nothing, go out to sea, etc.
3. As the week progresses, the mainstream shifts closer and closer to his original stuff.
4. A day or two out they basically completely agree with him.

He does miss sometimes and he does tend to seem like he's rooting for big storms, but he's more right than others. With my job, it's very helpful to know as far out as possible if a major event is coming. I don't need daily weather, but knowing about major events is VERY helpful.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I just don't know if I could read a guy who is that much of a dick...

Heh. That's what makes him entertaining!

And like Wade, I don't read him daily or even close to it. I just gave his FB page a "Like" a while back, and when one of his *ALERT* *ALERT* *ALERT* messages comes across my feed, I pay attention then.

[Ben E Lou]

(11am updates in...all NWS models pointing to US landfall now...)

[Kodos]

http://weather.aol.com/2012/10/25/rare-hybrid-storm-predicted-to-slam-northeast/?icid=maing-grid7|netscape|dl1|sec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D225511

From the Comments section:

Jody

In my opinion, it's not a natural storm. I feel that in my opinion that, our Government is using HAARP, to control the weather. Using this ,"Weapon," to knock out the power, and data usages towards election day, this way Obama CAN still have a chance. As we all know, Obama doesn't stand a chance, and will say that he won because, HAARP wiped out power, communications, and data. This way the government can rig the polls. Wow, it doesn't take much to see how our own government is trying to become an empire with an emperor. We ALL know that Obama needs to be out of office, and this is the ONLY way the can control the outcome of such elections. So, as for this storm, a rare storm? I think not, and have firm believe that this is being controlled by our government.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Kodos

http://weather.aol.com/2012/10/25/rare-hybrid-storm-predicted-to-slam-northeast/?icid=maing-grid7|netscape|dl1|sec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D225511

From the Comments section:

Thanks for that. Been having a blah day and this made my day. Had to stifle a hearty laugh and almost hurt myself.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

http://weather.aol.com/2012/10/25/rare-hybrid-storm-predicted-to-slam-northeast/?icid=maing-grid7|netscape|dl1|sec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D225511

From the Comments section:

Well... It IS obvious!!!

You know they have the technology to control the weather! If they can blow up 3 large buildings by planting demolitions while being invisible they can surely control the weather!

I bet it's JFK and Elvis that are responsible. That sonic boom from last weekend was just part of this large conspiracy!!!!

We want THE TRUTH!!!!!!

[Kodos]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=469538456400235

While we're on the topic of insanely stupid people...

[sterlingice]

I still think it's Cobra Commander and his Weather Dominator and Obama is just covering it up.

SI

[johnnyshaka]

Hey, if Jesse "the body" Ventura says HAARP is a weapon created by the US Gov't then who the hell am I to go question it's existence?!

Jesse, the friggin' body, Ventura, PEOPLE!

[Comey]

Originally Posted by Kodos

This isn't good news for those of us in coastal Connecticut...

I'm already on record with my co-workers as saying that, if this thing turns toward us in Mystic, I'm heading to PA. Not dealing with it.