COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Edward64]

NYT and WP are reporting this will be a Pandemic.

Doesn't feel like a Pandemic aka in the movies, but wanted to start this thread to get some thoughts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/h...mic-china.html

The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.
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The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
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In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths.

But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged.

When SARS was vanquished in July 2003 after spreading for nine months, only 8,098 cases had been confirmed. MERS has been circulating since 2012, but there have been only about 2,500 known cases.
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The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die. SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, 20 million to 50 million died.

By contrast, the highly transmissible H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 killed about 285,000, fewer than seasonal flu normally does, and had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at .02 percent.

The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.

[Groundhog]

I think it's still a bit of a beat-up at this stage - early signs have me thinking that the steps China took this time have prevented what could have been much worse. Currently 1 death outside of mainland China (HK), and although the numbers coming out of China are murky and filtered through the state media lens, I think it's safe to say that the overall health and living conditions of some of those contracting the disease also played a part in the mortality rates within the region.

[RendeR]

Based on current info less than 2% die from this and all of those have been from an underlying health condition, not the disease itself.

Its a really nasty new "ick" best not to let it spread, but not panic worthy.

[tarcone]

Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.

Conspiracy theory for the win.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.

Conspiracy theory for the win.

Something I read somewhere proposed a theory that China knew this was going to get bad and that's why they did the Phase 1 with Trump. Not sure the timing works though.

[AlexB]

Coronavirus outbreak not yet pandemic - World Health Organization - BBC News

[Edward64]

MSM is putting some perspective on this e.g. comparing it to the flu.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-...ronavirus.html



China stock markets were down 8% but rebounded 1%+ today. US stock markets have (so far) rebounded pretty well too. Wonder how much will this affect China's economy and impact global companies with some/most their supply chain in China.

[Edward64]

Another graphic to put things into perspective. The chart is as of Jan 31 and I believe the infected nos. are much greater now.

FWIW, I never realized the H1N1 "swine flu" was that widespread and cause that many deaths.

How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in One Simple Chart


So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one?

I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher. I think it's good practice to implement strong/harsh controls (travel bans/quarantines/etc) any time something like this rears its head, but I feel like one of the few people I know who isn't actively panicked by the whole thing.

[PilotMan]

Flight embargoes as you call them are not the result over worry about spreading these virus inasmuch as it's about bookings that have fallen off a cliff. Initially anyway. Even coming from Tokyo yesterday I had nearly 100 seats empty. Two weeks ago, that safe flight maybe only had 8 empty. It's so much worse going to China. It's going to cost a fortune in lost revenue.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher.

There is an article floating out there where Tencent had posted higher infections and deaths before lowering them match up with the official tally. Agree that it is probably higher and that mortality rate probably won't go up that much higher (unless there is a massive cover-up which I guess is possible).

Another article on folks quarantined on cruise ships. Assuming they are actually stuck in their rooms vs going down the waterslides and enjoying a nice seafood buffet ... must suck.

I am also surprised that China markets are going back up after their 8% decline on Mon. I can understand the US markets' stability/rise because it hasn't really hit us and/or we are more confident in being able to meet the challenge if it does come over, but China's industries must really be hit right now. I did read that Chinese government is spending or allocating $180B or stabilize the market (but that number sounds small to me).

[Edward64]

I was wondering how the folks quarantined on the cruise ships were doing. Here's and article, he posts his meals on twitter (doesn't look too bad for "prison" food).

It must suck for those in the interior without windows.

Man tweets food reviews from ship quarantined for coronavirus

[Galaril]

Well my company a Fortune 50 multinational has suspended all travel to from Asia Pacific as of Friday and thee are quite a few large companies doing the same. This is certainly going to affect revenue eventually.

[Lathum]

American Citizen Diagnosed With Coronavirus Dies in China - WSJ

[Edward64]

Pretty much still a jumble mess of confusion and FUD. Read WHO team is on the ground in China but not getting cooperation supposedly, China firing some big wigs in the area, China stats not accurate and/needed to be redefined etc.

From the CDC. Yeah, I'm okay to restrict to/from, require quarantine etc. until we get a better handle on this (and no, it's not racist to do this).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/healt...ntv/index.html

As an outbreak of a novel coronavirus has swept through Hubei province, China, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been preparing for its worst case scenario -- a widespread outbreak of illnesses in the United States.

"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.

"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."
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While more research is needed to fully understand the virus, Redfield told Gupta that the CDC has focused on surveillance to track cases and containment strategies to slow possible progression of the virus in the United States. Slowing progression gives more time for researchers to work on developing and testing a vaccine and antiviral drugs for this novel coronavirus. Currently, there is no known cure for the virus

[Groundhog]

Given the mortality rate sits somewhere between 0.5 - 4% outside of Hubei province in China, the best cure for the virus seems to be recovering from the virus.

[JediKooter]

Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?

[Ben E Lou]

I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.

American televangelist Jim Bakker is selling a liquid that allegedly ‘kills’ the coronavirus for $300 pic.twitter.com/sQYL9eJTq6

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) February 13, 2020

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?

Pics or I'm calling BS.

(But yes, get ready !!)

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Pics or I'm calling BS.

(But yes, get ready !!)

I'm still waiting for the financing to come through. Going to be cutting it close.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.

American televangelist Jim Bakker is selling a liquid that allegedly ‘kills’ the coronavirus for $300 pic.twitter.com/sQYL9eJTq6

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) February 13, 2020

Wow.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.

I get this, but he's mostly looking to scam lonely old people, so fuck him.

[tarcone]

Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.

[JPhillips]

I read that estimates are that China has twice the population of the US under lockdown now.

[NobodyHere]

At least this isn't as bad as Birdemic

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.

You should hear what his kid has to say about him.

[Edward64]

Watching "The Martian" right now and it's where they play "Starman" with numerous montages including the NASA folks working with their Chinese equivalents to launch the Chinese resupply ship ... great scenes with the perfect song. It did well in China with $52M in first week.

Sure would be great if we had that type of relationship with China. Seems like the coronavirus provides a "similar" opportunity where both countries can really grow closer but there doesn't seem to be as much trust, transparency etc.

[Edward64]

Some stats from China's CDC.

2.3% death rate, over 60+ is most vulnerable, infections peaked around Jan 23-26.

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News

Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.

Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.

The research also points to the high risk to medical staff.
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The report by the CCDC shows the province's death rate is 2.9% compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country.

The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
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It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old.

Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

The study also identifies which existing illnesses put patients at risk. It puts cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

This is by far the most detailed study of the coronavirus outbreak within China. It gives us incredible insight into what is happening, but the picture is far from complete.

You can study only the cases you find, and other scientists have estimated there could be 10 times as many people infected as are ending up in the official statistics. That means the overall death rate is likely to be lower than the one reported in this study.

The report also suggests the outbreak peaked in late January, but it is too soon to know for sure.

Looking forward, the paper finds that "the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms" peaked around 23-26 January before declining up to 11 February.

[Edward64]

The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.

Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-h...-pandemic.html

U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has killed at least 2,249 people and sickened more than 76,700 worldwide, to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

“We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”
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Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.

Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-h...-pandemic.html

Jade Helm 15


NEVER FORGET!


Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Jade Helm 15

NEVER FORGET!

Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?!

So you don't see the coronavirus becoming a bigger threat this year than let's say the annual flu? And the quarantines that are happening right now, an overreaction?

[PilotMan]

You mean like the spot on reactions to that Ebola breakout?

There are lots of reasons why outbreaks are worse, start and spread faster elsewhere.

My issue isn't with the way it's handled. It's the panic and insanity that comes with it. Cheeto isn't really wrong saying warmer weather will weaken it. People want to draw this line from a causing b, but they don't think about all the steps in between. That's all.

[NobodyHere]

Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!

Steady ... steady ... ste ... aaargh

It’ll be a bumpy ride.

BTW my SPCE is up 2.16% !!!

[JPhillips]

Ken Cuccinelli, the Acting Deputy Sec. of Homeland Security asked for help reaching Johns Hopkins coronavirus map because it's apparently behind a paywall.

We're all gonna get sick.

[Lathum]

Can anyone think of a worst case scenario then Trump being briefed on a pandemic and actually having to make life or death decisions.

[tarcone]

Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?

What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?

What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it.

From the link below, the death % is primarily the boomers and older.

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News

What I've read is we are trying to "contain" it to buy time to develop a vaccine or figure more effective treatments. Differing estimates as to how far along a vaccine is, unproven stories that some existing drugs can cure or help etc.

China's infections and deaths seem to be decreasing but who really trust those metrics. China cancels the National People's Congress because of the flu etc.

On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now.

[JPhillips]

And it's not just Dems! @SenShelby just said at the hearing with Azar: “It could be an existential threat to a lot of people in this country...This is not the time to try to shortchange the American people. This is the time to step up.”

— Alice Miranda Ollstein (@AliceOllstein) February 25, 2020

That's not comforting.

[Edward64]

On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now.

Well, nevermind.

I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Well, nevermind.

I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right?

[Lathum]

Talk about cancelling the Olympics. The quote came from a long time IOC member named, wait for it......Dick Pound.

https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc681...source=Twitter

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by panerd

Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right?

I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare.

If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

He will 100% get a pass. The man can do no wrong when it comes to his supporters. They will find an excuse for him on the worst of situations let alone one where he actually may have a legit excuse.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some".

We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth).

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare.

If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now.

I didn’t think about that. You are right if there is a Katrina like response it could hurt him significantly.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some".

We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth).

The corona virus could definitely be a Black Swan event that finally causes a significant drop. Hopefully the world can contain the virus from doing its worst, but it is looking really dicey right now.

[JPhillips]

"We have contained this, I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight." -- Kudlow, on @CNBC now.

Yeah, we're fucked when it gets here.