2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[wustin]

Can't make this shit up

Tucker Carlson Says He Had 'Authentic, Damning' New Hunter Biden Documents—But They Got Lost in the Mail

The funny thing is no matter what service named USPS, FedEx, or UPS, it's a losing proposition. Why even bring up some phoney claim.

[wustin]

Dola if they were that important. There would be physical and electronic copies

[Danny]

Heck, take a pic of it on your phone

[CrimsonFox]

I guess they shouldn't have sabotaged the postal service

[Edward64]

Alright Joe, the easy part is almost over. Get ready for all the drama and gyrations post-election to inauguration.

Ready to hear your cabinet list and your real first 100 days priorities.

[Edward64]

I know it's junk mail but I'm okay getting all the political "vote for me" 1 pager mailers that seems all in vogue this cycle.

Less intrusive, annoying and definitely better than all the political robocalls. I've gotten into the habit of essentially blocking any calls not from my address book or those that don't leave a message.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

If that was the case then nobody would be talking about whether the court should overrule a state, and yet that was what everyone was talking about with Pennsylvania. The argument instead would have been 'they should be telling all states they must do this' You may know more about this than I do; where does the 'postmarked by Election Day' standard come from? I.e., what federal law does not doing it that way violate?

People were pointing out the conservatives are not being consistent in their own philosophy of law by overruling a state supreme court on their interpretation of state law. Roberts was actually being consistent in his view on both cases, and said so in his opinions. The others are not.

The more liberal view is that the emphasis should be protecting the voter and the vote. They believe it is fine to overturn a states decision if it protects the right of the voter to have their vote counted.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Ready to hear your cabinet list and your real first 100 days priorities.

Most of these are Congressional, but it would be helpful if Biden threw his weight behind them.

Eliminate the Filibuster
Expand the House
Expand the federal courts
D.C. Statehood.
Puerto Rico Statehood (if they want it)
All legal residents of a state over age 18 get to vote in federal elections.
All federal elections must have paper trails.
Provide money to make these things happen.
Massive stimulus with automatic stabilizers
Testing and medical supplies as part of the stimulus
Reform ACA to get rid of parts that GOP is using to strike law down
Climate Change
Increase revenue/raise taxes

I'm not sure what role Congress has in eliminating gerrymandering, but throw that in, too.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Most of these are Congressional, but it would be helpful if Biden threw his weight behind them.

Eliminate the Filibuster
Expand the House
Expand the federal courts
D.C. Statehood.
Puerto Rico Statehood (if they want it)
All legal residents of a state over age 18 get to vote in federal elections.
All federal elections must have paper trails.
Provide money to make these things happen.
Massive stimulus with automatic stabilizers
Testing and medical supplies as part of the stimulus
Reform ACA to get rid of parts that GOP is using to strike law down
Climate Change
Increase revenue/raise taxes

I'm not sure what role Congress has in eliminating gerrymandering, but throw that in, too.

If I hadn't already voted, you would have my vote.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Most of these are Congressional, but it would be helpful if Biden threw his weight behind them.

Eliminate the Filibuster
Expand the House
Expand the federal courts
D.C. Statehood.
Puerto Rico Statehood (if they want it)
All legal residents of a state over age 18 get to vote in federal elections.
All federal elections must have paper trails.
Provide money to make these things happen.
Massive stimulus with automatic stabilizers
Testing and medical supplies as part of the stimulus
Reform ACA to get rid of parts that GOP is using to strike law down
Climate Change
Increase revenue/raise taxes

I'm not sure what role Congress has in eliminating gerrymandering, but throw that in, too.

I did find an article with a list (not sure if similar to yours) but article also pointed out likely not the real list as there are too many to really focus on the first 100 days vs his 4 years. I want to know the 2-3-4-5 things he's going to push for and spend political capital in his first 100 days.

(1) Upgrading pandemic response is a no brainer & so is (2) stabilizing the economy via stimulus etc.

I'm guessing (3) some sort of Bidencare initiative and laying the groundwork for (4) rolling back tax cuts for those > $400K and other tax related matters.

From your list, I doubt DC or PR statehood makes it in the first 100 days.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by wustin

Can't make this shit up

Tucker Carlson Says He Had 'Authentic, Damning' New Hunter Biden Documents—But They Got Lost in the Mail

The funny thing is no matter what service named USPS, FedEx, or UPS, it's a losing proposition. Why even bring up some phoney claim.

I saw someone say "the dog ate my October surprise."

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I was also amazed at the number of Cunningham/Tillis commercials - I have never seen anything like it. My 11-year old knows more about them than our own senators at this point. I have to think nearly 100% of voters know who they both are.

I typically listen to music via Pandora for a couple of hours almost every day. Both are advertising a ton even in that medium.

[Swaggs]

I'm not too well educated on the Georgia senate race and they always seem to go to run off anyway, but this is about as big of a haymaker as I have seen in awhile:

Sen. David Perdue is out for himself — not for our health. pic.twitter.com/zbtmw6rU4Q

— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) October 29, 2020

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I typically listen to music via Pandora for a couple of hours almost every day. Both are advertising a ton even in that medium.

All over Youtube, too.

[Ksyrup]

I watch a bunch of Tennis Channel during the day when I work from home and I've seen a number of SC Senate ads (all anti-Graham because THEY'VE JUST GOT SO MUCH MORE MONEY THAN ME, Y'ALL!).

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm not too well educated on the Georgia senate race and they always seem to go to run off anyway, but this is about as big of a haymaker as I have seen in awhile:

Sen. David Perdue is out for himself — not for our health. pic.twitter.com/zbtmw6rU4Q

— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) October 29, 2020

The guy on the left just looks like a smary, d-bag politician. His body language is horrific.

[Ksyrup]

I wish they had included his response (if there was one) in that clip.

[spleen1015]

Yeah me too. It means nothing without hearing his response.

[JPhillips]

"Socialism. Amy Coney Barrett. Can't live in fear. Donald Trump."

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What are the odds!?!

The dog ate my bullshit https://t.co/NCYLxlJvhL

— Ron Fournier (@ron_fournier) October 29, 2020

[albionmoonlight]

My guess is that his response was decent since Osoff didn't include it.

[albionmoonlight]

The GOP better hope for good weather on election day. I don't think that their mixed messages on early voting made sense for them.

With over 70M ballots cast already in this election, white non-college voters have cast just over half as many ballots as they did in total in the '16 election. Meanwhile, college educated white voters and voters of color are much closer to their 2016 vote totals. pic.twitter.com/xIKb4514Cs

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 29, 2020

[albionmoonlight]

That said, I am not sure how many votes the Dems have remaining for election day. The "vote early" message has been CONSTANT on the left.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

That said, I am not sure how many votes the Dems have remaining for election day. The "vote early" message has been CONSTANT on the left.

I know of at least 2 more votes in PA that will happen on election day, so they will definitely count.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm not too well educated on the Georgia senate race and they always seem to go to run off anyway, but this is about as big of a haymaker as I have seen in awhile:

Sen. David Perdue is out for himself — not for our health. pic.twitter.com/zbtmw6rU4Q

— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) October 29, 2020

Well David Purdue is a massive douchebag, so this is nice.

[Brian Swartz]

89%

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I wish they had included his response (if there was one) in that clip.

Georgia U.S. Senate Debate | C-SPAN.org

Click on the COVID-19 and pre-existing conditions link on the right side of the page for the full exchange on that topic.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

89%

It's such a weird combination of being logically confident that the polling is right and Biden is going to win, possibly BIGLY, and the irrational but nagging doubt that stems from the horrible unexpected outcome last time.

[spleen1015]

In my uneducated estimation, Trump got a prefect storm last time, winning important state in toss ups.

I don't think that happens this time. There won't be any toss ups and Biden blows him away.

Once it is all over, we'll all be like "Yeah, we worried for nothing."

I'm still worried.

[Ksyrup]

I'm more worried for the post-election outcome either way - either in terms of how Trump attempts to fight a loss, or what he's going to do to the country for another 4 years. Long-term, a Biden win will hopefully set us back on the right course. For what might happen in the foreseeable future, I'm not in a good frame of mind right now.

[Jas_lov]

I think the polls are underestimating the anti Trump sentiment this year but I'm still worried about PA and the mail issues and the court stepping in. Hopefully we can see signs of a Biden win in FL fairly early on election night and it puts all doubt to rest.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Kodos

It's such a weird combination of being logically confident that the polling is right and Biden is going to win, possibly BIGLY, and the irrational but nagging doubt that stems from the horrible unexpected outcome last time.

My wife said this morning "There's a huge danger here in that no one can believe the information out there". And I strongly disagreed. I think there's always a chance that the methodology is wrong and that's where the a few percentage points come from - our mental margin of error, so to speak.

But I think most of the fear on the left is the legal and counting shenanigans that follow the election. I think if you asked Dems "if there's just the usual level of election fraud (I was going to call it tomfoolery but that just diminishes how serious this is) and legal action, how confident would you be in the numbers", you'd end up around 10% or maybe a little higher, much of which stems from trauma in recent memory (2016).

TL;DR
Dems fear of losing a "fair" election: 5%
Dems fear of losing through fraud and legal action: much higher (40%? 60%?)

SI

[larrymcg421]

Perdue (and Collins/Loeffler) seem to be running like Georgia is West Virginia. I mean, maybe they pull it out, but if they lose, it'll be on them for not noticing Georgia's burgeoning purple lean that has been creeping up since 2008.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

I think the polls are underestimating the anti Trump sentiment this year but I'm still worried about PA and the mail issues and the court stepping in. Hopefully we can see signs of a Biden win in FL fairly early on election night and it puts all doubt to rest.

Read a story last night about early voters supposedly wanting to change their vote due to Biden's stance on fracking. Not sure of the validity of the story or the possibility of doing that, but there are apparently groups working to assist these people.

[Ksyrup]

I think some of the fear is that we all know (even love) otherwise rational, good people who are voting for Trump. And there's that possibility that there are far more of them than anyone wants to believe, even given what we've just gone through for 4 years.

[Atocep]

Biden up to 89% on 538 and recent polls at both the national and state level have looked really good for Biden.

[Swaggs]

I don't know how it is going to play out, but I just read that Texas has already gotten over 95% of the 2016 vote with two more days of early voting and Election Day still outstanding.

I'm having a hard time getting over the mental hurdle that it could go blue this year, but if they get that many new people to vote, it is also hard to think that a lot of them are not anti-Trump protest votes. Georgia seems along those same lines, but a hair more believable.

[Atocep]

If Texas goes blue Trumpism likely dies. I don't see it happening this cycle, but if there's something that makes the GOP do a real self examination that would be it.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Read a story last night about early voters supposedly wanting to change their vote due to Biden's stance on fracking. Not sure of the validity of the story or the possibility of doing that, but there are apparently groups working to assist these people.

I live in WV, but am in the Pittsburgh television market area. For months, Trump has been running ads with oil & gas types (presumably actors) saying that Biden will end fracking. It was a dumb, unforced error for Biden to say that in the debate, but I find it hard to believe that there are people that saw the debate but had not seen dozens of commercials.

[larrymcg421]

But the GOP may not be able to do a self-examination. They've awakened Trumpism and I'm not sure they'll be able to shut it down that quickly. There will be Trumpist candidates running in primaries in 2022 and 2024. If they win, not much the party elite can do about it.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Atocep

If Texas goes blue Trumpism likely dies. I don't see it happening this cycle, but if there's something that makes the GOP do a real self examination that would be it.

Agreed. This feels like a situation where the polls may look close, but then the turnout and GOP machine makes it more like a 5 point GOP hold (looks like Trump was +9ish in '16 and Cruz ended up beating Beto by 2.5% in '18). It is remarkable that they will likely have well over the entire 2016 turnout there having already voted prior to Election Day, though.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

But the GOP may not be able to do a self-examination. They've awakened Trumpism and I'm not sure they'll be able to shut it down that quickly. There will be Trumpist candidates running in primaries in 2022 and 2024. If they win, not much the party elite can do about it.

There are things a party can do to make it much more difficult for candidates they don't support to win. No funding from the party, party supported challengers, selling your base on the policy differences between Trumpism and the Party, ect. None of that guarantees primary wins but it does make it more difficult for the outsider and a split base would lead to an ass kicking in the 2022 mid terms that you hope brings the base back together for 2024.

This is all rational thinking though and the recent GOP has been anything but. They're more likely to continue down the same path and take further loses in 2022 with everyone doing bad Trump impersonations.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by wustin

Can't make this shit up

Tucker Carlson Says He Had 'Authentic, Damning' New Hunter Biden Documents—But They Got Lost in the Mail

The funny thing is no matter what service named USPS, FedEx, or UPS, it's a losing proposition. Why even bring up some phoney claim.

actually you CAN make this shit up and he just did

[Ksyrup]

The other reason for worry:

There's a scenario where the map looks like this. And this scenario DOES NOT REQUIRE THE POLLS TO BE WRONG. pic.twitter.com/CZuREaQRoz

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) October 29, 2020

[Brian Swartz]

That scenario absolutely would require the polls to be wrong though. It looks like it was essentially made by assuming any state in which Biden is winning by less than 7 points goes Trump. One or two of those states going that way is one thing, but if they all do that is a systematic polling failure the likes of which have not been approached in modern history.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

But the GOP may not be able to do a self-examination. They've awakened Trumpism and I'm not sure they'll be able to shut it down that quickly. There will be Trumpist candidates running in primaries in 2022 and 2024. If they win, not much the party elite can do about it.

I think it will take multiple losses. In 2024, who will run that isn't either tainted by Trump or gleefully all in? Meanwhile, Cotton, Hawley, maybe a Trump child, probably a full-on Q supporter, etc. will be running. The GOP won't be Kasich's party next year.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That scenario absolutely would require the polls to be wrong though. It looks like it was essentially made by assuming any state in which Biden is winning by less than 7 points goes Trump. One or two of those states going that way is one thing, but if they all do that is a systematic polling failure the likes of which have not been approached in modern history.

It's within the margin of error of the averaged polls.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The other reason for worry:

There's a scenario where the map looks like this. And this scenario DOES NOT REQUIRE THE POLLS TO BE WRONG. pic.twitter.com/CZuREaQRoz

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) October 29, 2020

Eh. That looks like Trump would really have to thread the needle still.

[Ksyrup]

Absolutely - everything would have to break for him. The point is it's not impossible.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by KSyrup

It's within the margin of error of the averaged polls.

Right, but margin of error is what it is in relationship to a specific poll. It has less validity when averaging a group of polls, and less than that when extending to it to several states. You'd need those states all to have the multiple polls in them be off in the same direction by similar amounts, amounts which in some cases are pretty much at the margin of error. That's possible, but extremely unlikely and is not what margin of error measures.