2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I agree with everything except he is not much different than HRC. His politics maybe close, but he is nowhere near as hated as she was. She had decades of hatred that she needed to overcome, not to mention the gender factor.

Definitely true. Clinton started her campaign off as being very disliked. Biden started his campaign off as being very liked. They begin from different areas. And being a man is going to help him quite a bit as well.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Oh absolutely. I just meant politically. It certainly looks like a significant number of people who sat out or voted third party because they couldn't voting for HRC are now perfectly willing to vote for the same policies she would have tried to enact and judges she would have tried to confirm.

Some people have pointed out that it may just be that a decent amount of people who voted for Sanders in 2016 were anti-Hillary voters as opposed to pro-Bernie.

[GrantDawg]

Biden is up by 48 points in the latest Florida poll. That is huge. You think Bernie wants to praise Castro some more?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by panerd

She seems like a good vice presidential candidate for both actually. She might as well stay out of the endorsing so she can go with either one.

She'd have been great as a VP for Buttigieg. No interest in her as a VP for either Biden or Sanders. Don't much want one septuagenarian on the ticket, but am for damn sure not interested in TWO on the ticket.

I'd rather see someone in Buttigieg's age cohort. I don't think you're going to find many VP candidates in their late 30s (unless one of Joe/Bernie wants to take a shot on grooming Pete so he's got the 'experience' side of things down in 4 or 8 years).

Stacey Abrams, though? Might be as close as we can plausibly get. If she's interested, I'm on board.

[Ben E Lou]

Bloomberg ain't messin' 'round.

"Bloomberg's advisers have identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina as the six states that will decided the electoral college winner this year. Staff in each of those states have signed contracts through November to work on the effort." https://t.co/qfQMgY72Fz

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) March 5, 2020

[GrantDawg]

The Green Party is totally legit and not a function of the Russian government.

SPOILER ALERT? The leading Green Party candidate for president says he's running in November -- even if Sanders is the Dems' nominee. https://t.co/zkqTUjU5CH

— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) March 5, 2020

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Bloomberg ain't messin' 'round.

"Bloomberg's advisers have identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina as the six states that will decided the electoral college winner this year. Staff in each of those states have signed contracts through November to work on the effort." https://t.co/qfQMgY72Fz

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) March 5, 2020

I love how they make it sound like Bloomberg's advisers have secret knowledge about swing states for 2020.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Biden is up by 48 points in the latest Florida poll. That is huge. You think Bernie wants to praise Castro some more?

BUT THE LITERACY RATES!

[Edward64]

Bernie’s Bros & Sis on TV seem cranky past couple of days. Probably upset they won’t get all their debts magically cancelled.

TV segment indicates that Warren’s supporters will split between Biden and Big Bro with a slight edge to the commie deadbeat.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

BUT THE LITERACY RATES!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Not sure what that has to do with Bernie being down 48 points in Florida.

[RainMaker]

Nothing. Pretty sure the primary is over man. Biden is the nominee. Let's see what he does in a general.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I agree with everything except he is not much different than HRC. His politics maybe close, but he is nowhere near as hated as she was. She had decades of hatred that she needed to overcome, not to mention the gender factor.

She was also in the spotlight much more. Biden was the folksy Senator from a tiny state who didn't draw much interest. Even when he was in the VP running, he got paired against Sarah Palin who drew most of the media attention.

The Republicans have already showed their hand and they are going to target him the same way they did Clinton. They're going to point out how his family was gifting while he was in office. They're going to show his racist past (Hannitty apparently spent half his show playing racist clips of Biden). Probably even bring up his mental decline (remember all the clips of Hilary tripping or whatever?). You're going to see hundreds of millions of dollars of that blasted at you which is something he's never dealt with before.

Now their strategy isn't intended to flip votes. It's to depress turnout. It worked in 2016. A lot of Obama voters just stayed home (especially rural Democrats). Will they do the same after 6 months of hearing about Biden's past troubles?

I think the most important person in this election is Obama. He stumped for Hillary, but I think it felt fake. They never seemed to have a bond. There was always the animosity over 2008.

But Obama and Biden seem to have a genuine friendship. If he hits the trail hard to vouch for "Uncle Joe", I think that brings out the voters. Obama has sat by quietly the past few years taking jabs from Trump at every turn. I wonder if he's going to unleash on the trail and exact some revenge. The Democrats could sure use it.

[RainMaker]

Oh they'll also hammer Biden as a warmongerer. Guessing the desire to pull out of Afghanistan soon might be to show the difference in the two. Democrats have definitely shifted more toward neoconservative views on foreign policy while perhaps Republicans are shifting more isolationist.

Trump attacks Clinton as 'trigger-happy' as he vows to expand military | US news | The Guardian

[JPhillips]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...cratic-nominee

AOC is a much better politician than Sanders.

[ISiddiqui]

She really is. When she points out beneficial things (like M4A would likely be compromised when trying to pass it) Sanders fans get really angry and go after her, but she knows that even while antagonizing the moderates you need them to get anything done.

[RainMaker]

Sanders is a bad politician. Always has been. I think that's why a lot of people were rooting for Warren. And it probably would have been better if Bernie didn't run and just supported her throughout.

You vote for Biden because he will hopefully keep ACA and nominate good judges. But I can understand how anti-war folks or those afraid of losing SS/Medicare would sit home.

[JPhillips]

Dems in Congress are a much better bet to save SS/Medicare than GOPers in Congress.

Sitting at home doesn't protect you.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Dems in Congress are a much better bet to save SS/Medicare than GOPers in Congress.

Sitting at home doesn't protect you.

Like 10% of House races are competitive. Most people live in districts where the only competition is in the primary.

[JPhillips]

There's all sorts of competitive races from Senate to your local town council. If you sit things out, you have no input. Collective action is hard, but it's the only way to get to the policy outcomes that you favor.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

But Obama and Biden seem to have a genuine friendship. If he hits the trail hard to vouch for "Uncle Joe", I think that brings out the voters. Obama has sat by quietly the past few years taking jabs from Trump at every turn. I wonder if he's going to unleash on the trail and exact some revenge. The Democrats could sure use it.

I agree with this.

Also, I know Michelle said no and I don't think she is qualified, but it would be fun with her as a veep candidate.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

think the most important person in this election is Obama. He stumped for Hillary, but I think it felt fake. They never seemed to have a bond. There was always the animosity over 2008.

But Obama and Biden seem to have a genuine friendship. If he hits the trail hard to vouch for "Uncle Joe", I think that brings out the voters. Obama has sat by quietly the past few years taking jabs from Trump at every turn. I wonder if he's going to unleash on the trail and exact some revenge. The Democrats could sure use it.

Yep I completely agree here, and in an election all about turnout, this is going to be much needed.

[Edward64]

A little late but Kamala has joined the Joe bandwagon.

I think it would be great if Joe gave many of the younger generation a cabinet position.

(... and Jesse Jackson endorses Sanders)

[Ben E Lou]

As if the Sanders campaign weren't already in enough trouble, now this:

I see Bernie's new outreach to African-American and mainstream Democrats is off to a great start. pic.twitter.com/D6ibxoB8Jq

— Dan SIoan 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈 (@dantoujours) March 8, 2020

[Izulde]

I think Berners really underestimate how their jackassery has hurt his standing. A number of progressives I know have discussed it privately and the overwhelming consensus is that none of us would be happy about voting for him in the general election (Full disclosure: We were all Warren supporters. Most had Bernie had a second candidate, but a few were considering others.) Nor is it just Bernie Bros. It's the women, too.

When you have people in your own lane who are not enthusiastic about supporting you because of the behavior of your supporters, that's a huge problem. And for me personally, I lost a lot of respect for a fair number of people in this cycle. They truly are the Trumpers of the left.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

As if the Sanders campaign weren't already in enough trouble, now this:

I see Bernie's new outreach to African-American and mainstream Democrats is off to a great start. pic.twitter.com/D6ibxoB8Jq

— Dan SIoan ��������������️‍�� (@dantoujours) March 8, 2020

So is Bernie a "racist" by association?

[NobodyHere]

Well like Trump, Bernie only hires the best people.

[JPhillips]

Just one poll, but Biden might get 60% or even 70% in MS and MI tomorrow.

By Wednesday the only question will be how long until Bernie concedes. Pretty amazing turnaround.

[PilotMan]

I wonder if the GOP wishes they'd done this in 16 and avoided the inevitable result?

[JPhillips]

And over 60 in MO for Biden.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I wonder if the GOP wishes they'd done this in 16 and avoided the inevitable result?

I don't think so. I mean, they won with Trump and, regardless of what happens in 2020, packed the federal judiciary for a generation.

And, while Bernie is pretty far to the left of the typical Democratic voter, Trump's GOP approval rating is consistently around 90%.

They got the guy they wanted, and he won the general election. I think that the GOP is quite happy.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I wonder if the GOP wishes they'd done this in 16 and avoided the inevitable result?

They kinda sorta tried? You had the whole rally around the next guy in that primary. The problem was you had a fight between two wings of the establishment in Bush and Cruz. When Jeb was found to be a dud, they elevated someone else (can’t remember, not going to look it up). That guy was knocked around, they moved to Rubio and others, this was the line of the old guard. The Tea Party got in line behind Cruz. Trump, as an outsider, got all the people that were fed up with Republicans in Washington who were not introducing legislation or coming up with alternatives to what Democrats were pushing at the time.

The two wings of the party were so fed up with each other, Trump was more palatable to either wing than the other wing’s candidate. Do they regret it, probably not, they won the Presidency, are they happy how it happened, no.

What I never understood was why nothing coalesced around Kasich. Here is a popular governor of an important state, and there was never a move to elevate him or form a coalition around him.

For the record, I think Trump will go down like Clinton did. He will be a two term president that leaves the party in ashes behind him when he is gone.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I Trump's GOP approval rating is consistently around 90%.

I hear this all the time. I wonder what number that becomes when you factor in all the people who were Republicans in 2016 but have since left the party.

[spleen1015]

The 90% is a number that Trump likes to throw out there. That tells me its a lie and I'll never believe it.

[larrymcg421]

The problem with the GOP was that Cruz emerged as the top alternate and the insiders hated him as well.

[ISiddiqui]

Booker just endorsed Biden today.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I hear this all the time. I wonder what number that becomes when you factor in all the people who were Republicans in 2016 but have since left the party.

538 has touched on this recently. Basically it's become so hyper-partisan that the approval questions are seen as "do you support Trump or would you rather have liberal as president?".

Once you start breaking the question down and drilling deeper the Trump approval rating among the GOP comes down.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Izulde

I think Berners really underestimate how their jackassery has hurt his standing. A number of progressives I know have discussed it privately and the overwhelming consensus is that none of us would be happy about voting for him in the general election (Full disclosure: We were all Warren supporters. Most had Bernie had a second candidate, but a few were considering others.) Nor is it just Bernie Bros. It's the women, too.

When you have people in your own lane who are not enthusiastic about supporting you because of the behavior of your supporters, that's a huge problem. And for me personally, I lost a lot of respect for a fair number of people in this cycle. They truly are the Trumpers of the left.

Exactly so. And I do think Sanders himself is very slow to reign in his people - a decent bit of the jackassery comes from people associated from his campaign. Like he seemed to be most clear cut about chastising his supporters for going after Warren after Warren dropped out of the race. Which seems politically fortuitous. Every once a while he does like to say some of his supporters go too far, but it feels half assed at best.

Which makes other candidates' supporters wonder (fear?) how he's going to govern.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

And I do think Sanders himself is very slow to reign in his people

I completely agree with this. I was originally in the Warren Camp, waffled between Warren and Bernie for awhile, went back to Warren after the way she destroyed Bloomberg's record with women in his first debate, but really I never had a moment's hesitation about Bernie being the next choice, and I'm still disappointed by the idea that Biden is going to win (has won, really). Despite all that, I am really uncomfortable with the Bernie Bros, I believe its just a vocal minority but its a very pervasive minority, and I've never really felt Bernie has done enough to try to limit that himself. He'll condemn any harassment when asked about it, but I feel like he's kinda happy its there as long as there isn't a direct focus on it, and that bothers me.

[molson]

Speaking of 538, I see they have Biden now 94% likely to get the nomination and sanders 0.7% likely based on the last round of polls (and nobody getting a majority of delegates at 5%). Biden has a chance to sweep the states tomorrow, 538 only sees Sanders as a slight favorite in the states where he's favored.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Radii

I completely agree with this. I was originally in the Warren Camp, waffled between Warren and Bernie for awhile, went back to Warren after the way she destroyed Bloomberg's record with women in his first debate, but really I never had a moment's hesitation about Bernie being the next choice, and I'm still disappointed by the idea that Biden is going to win (has won, really). Despite all that, I am really uncomfortable with the Bernie Bros, I believe its just a vocal minority but its a very pervasive minority, and I've never really felt Bernie has done enough to try to limit that himself. He'll condemn any harassment when asked about it, but I feel like he's kinda happy its there as long as there isn't a direct focus on it, and that bothers me.

There have been many articles written about this mindset. How passion leads people to believe the passionate person more, even when they are wrong. How passionate people in the minority can make it seem that they are the majority with their actions. It's basically the backstory behind the rise of the NRA and anti-gun control legislation.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by molson

Speaking of 538, I see they have Biden now 94% likely to get the nomination and sanders 0.7% likely based on the last round of polls (and nobody getting a majority of delegates at 5%). Biden has a chance to sweep the states tomorrow, 538 only sees Sanders as a slight favorite in the states where he's favored.

Updated just an hour ago, and it's now 99% for Biden and 0.1% for Sanders.

[RainMaker]

James Biden’s health care ventures face a growing legal morass

[NobodyHere]

I wonder if fear of the virus will have an effect on turnout in Michigan today. I can see some older voters staying home because of the virus and because they may think Biden is inevitable at this point.

If not Michigan then maybe Ohio next week where the virus is confirmed.

[larrymcg421]

538 mentioned that Bernie could win 5 of 6 states tonight and still lose delegates because Biden is going to win MS by so much.

[Edward64]

Tonight is the night! (I hope)

Joe, consider promising the commie the Russian ambassadorship for his support ... and will you get a new makeup person? You look older and older every time I see you on TV.

[Ben E Lou]

Exit poll from Mississippi has Biden winning 84% of the black vote, Sanders winning 13%.

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) March 11, 2020

[Thomkal]

Biden wins Missouri, Mississippi

[larrymcg421]

A big problem Bernie is facing in Michigan (and elsewhere) right now is he's not doing nearly as well in rural areas. Lots of rural counties he won in Michigan 2016 are flipping to Biden. It seems clear that there were many moderate/conservative Dems who just didn't like Hillary and thus voted Bernie. Joe is far more appealing to those voters.

[tarcone]

Just to be transparent and based on the stupidity of the democratic party, In Missouris open primary, I voted dem and Bernie.

Just because I hate the dems recent trend of giving it to the next guy. After Obama, they seem to have gone away from being dynamic and exciting and settled into , its your turn.

Dumb ass party. I guess Im voting 3rd party again. I hope there is a really rock and roll 3rd party person like Gary Johnson.