WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[Lathum]

test

[jeheinz72]

no one told me there was going to be a test!

[Telle]

So why is the case for me more compelling than the case for Chief Rum?

[jeheinz72]

For me, my analysis on wolf sets likely sealed my vote. I can't see the wolves devouring one of their own like that Day One, and I don't think hoops votes for EF and keeps it there through the "reveal" if he knows that the 3rd wolf can't do anything.

[Telle]

I think it was too risky for hoops to move after the reveal because of how badly it was received. Look at how everyone jumped on Hannibal for doing so.

[jeheinz72]

But if that's the case, then why not just vote for Jackal instead of EF to begin with. Hoops had to know some reveal or more pushing back was coming from EF.

[Telle]

Because he was planning on moving after the reveal, but ended up not being able to because of how badly the reveal was taken. His vote came pretty late and after there was already a lot on EF, so there was plenty of time for them too all coordinate this. So they set it up.. hoops votes for EF so there's a record of him putting a vote on a wolf, then EF reveals, then hoops moves his vote. Only problem was how badly the reveal was and then he couldn't risk making the move.

[Telle]

Plus I even stated in the thread that I was going to be gone until after deadline.. so there wasn't any chance of me moving my vote either.

[Abe Sargent]

Telle, I agree that CR would be my next choice, no question. And if the vote tonight is something like 3 Telle 3 CR 2 rpi, I'll switch to CR, no question.

[Telle]

Yeah but it's not going to be because everyone's piling on me.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Telle

Because he was planning on moving after the reveal, but ended up not being able to because of how badly the reveal was taken. His vote came pretty late and after there was already a lot on EF, so there was plenty of time for them too all coordinate this. So they set it up.. hoops votes for EF so there's a record of him putting a vote on a wolf, then EF reveals, then hoops moves his vote. Only problem was how badly the reveal was and then he couldn't risk making the move.

Originally Posted by Telle

Plus I even stated in the thread that I was going to be gone until after deadline.. so there wasn't any chance of me moving my vote either.

Those points make some sense. I guess overall I look at it like best-case (for you) Day One you are equally at fault, best case.

So I suppose that instead of letting you refute my theories, I'd rather hear from you why CR deserves my vote moreso than you do.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Telle

Well, Chief also keeps going after RPI-Fan. This is a safe a thing for a wolf to do and wastes a day of us searching for a wolf.

On Day 2 he was the second to vote for EF, right after Danny revealed what happened. He could very well have known that something went wrong with the kill that night by communication with the other wolves and thus was eager to get his vote on EF to right away to gain trust.

Day 4 he moved his vote, sealing the lynch for a villager.

Here's what I got on Chief Rum.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I agree with DT. Of course, I basically said what he's being saying all day, first, very early in the morning, not that anyone noticed.

I would rather get a possible wolf than an obvious janitor, when the janitor figures in our numbers. That said, I agree with the sentiment that we can't let RPI wait too much longer. Tomorrow probably, day after that at the latest.

Interesting, BTW, that the voting trends have led me back to Gramm, even though I backed off of on my earlier suspicion. But better Gramm than RPI...this night at least.

UNVOTE HANNIBAL
VOTE GRAMM

This is Chief's Day 4 vote. It was 5-4-1 preceeding this, his being the lone vote on Hannibal, 5 for Gramm, 4 for RPI

[jeheinz72]

I guess it all boils down to gut in a way. I'm not going to burn CR for voting at 1:09 AM when it's his MO. I mean Danny posted it at 12:45 and Abe was vote #3 at 1:11.

I'm still thinking on it though as I wrap up my day.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

This is Chief's Day 4 vote. It was 5-4-1 preceeding this, his being the lone vote on Hannibal, 5 for Gramm, 4 for RPI

Putting a vote on RPI-Fan would have created a tie, and he knew he couldn't get away with that. Plus it's better for him, as a wolf, to take out a villager than the janitor anyways.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I guess it all boils down to gut in a way. I'm not going to burn CR for voting at 1:09 AM when it's his MO. I mean Danny posted it at 12:45 and Abe was vote #3 at 1:11.

I'm still thinking on it though as I wrap up my day.

Abe is my #2 vote, but I think CR is more likely.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Telle

Putting a vote on RPI-Fan would have created a tie, and he knew he couldn't get away with that. Plus it's better for him, as a wolf, to take out a villager than the janitor anyways.

Yeah I mean that's my point. His options, being online were

#1: Keep his vote out of the fray on Hannibal, which would get him a glare
#2: Tie it up, which would probably result in his lynching post-haste since he had earlier in the day said he didn't think lynching RPI was a good idea in general
#3: Switch to Gramm

Frankly, wolf or villager, his options weren't rosy.

[jeheinz72]

DT, I see you're in thread, care to chime in? I'm only going to be around another hour or so and I'd like to see where you are before locking in my vote

[Telle]

Ok so his Day 4 vote doesn't tell us much. I still think he way he keeps voting for RPI-Fan though is suspect. It's an easy vote to make since most people aren't going to question it.. whereas if he went after another villager he'd need to give more reason for his vote.

I understand that there's not a whole lot to distinguish the two of us. But what I don't get is why everyone's piling on me and pretty much ignoring him.

[Telle]

I would rather get a possible wolf than an obvious janitor, when the janitor figures in our numbers. That said, I agree with the sentiment that we can't let RPI wait too much longer. Tomorrow probably, day after that at the latest.

And here is how he gets away with not voting for RPI-Fan on Day 4 but voting for him every day since.

[Telle]

Err.. that should have been quoted, not bolded.

[DaddyTorgo]

sorry. i'm being swaqmped at work. is my text in white? wtf!

[DaddyTorgo]

okay - where am i at?

I agree with Telle. CR has kept voting for RPI, in effect dumping his vote, where Telle has at least tried to make a play. I don't fault Chief Rum for that in some ways, but it's also an ideal situation for a wolf to try to hide his vote.

I think I'm strongly leaning towards CR at this point, but if it comes down to being a tie I would switch to Telle to avoid that.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

okay - where am i at?

I agree with Telle. CR has kept voting for RPI, in effect dumping his vote, where Telle has at least tried to make a play. I don't fault Chief Rum for that in some ways, but it's also an ideal situation for a wolf to try to hide his vote.

I think I'm strongly leaning towards CR at this point, but if it comes down to being a tie I would switch to Telle to avoid that.

Will you be around at deadline? Put your vote on Chief Rum and see if one or two follow. If you'll be here you'll have an opportunity to switch to me if a tie situation occurs.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Telle

I understand that there's not a whole lot to distinguish the two of us. But what I don't get is why everyone's piling on me and pretty much ignoring him.

I'm not trying to "pile" on you. I really am still considering this

[jeheinz72]

Speaking of votes, what are we, 3-1-1 at this point. Telle having 3?

[Telle]

Yep.

[jeheinz72]

Unvote Telle
Vote Chief Rum

Seeing what shakes.

[Telle]

Ok, so then if DT votes for Chief that puts him in the lead. However, if Chief shows up at deadline he could move his vote to me and cause a tie. Will one of you be around to move your vote to me right before deadline if you need to in order to avoid a tie?

[DaddyTorgo]

I will be around at deadline, yes.

let's see what shakes out

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[jeff061]

I'll check in later.

[Telle]

I'm heading out. I'm not sure if I'll be on around deadline but I'll try.

[jeheinz72]

I'm not liking the way that went down. DT seemed all too happy to dawdle with his vote until I switched. My new thinking is Telle is the wolf and DT is the janitor.

It explains why he could be ok putting a vote on EF on Day One (as the trust by doing so got him this far). It explains why he's so anti-RPI-lynch until the end (since if Telle's the wolf and he's the janitor, they'd win with RPI's lynch tomorrow).

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote Telle

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hi Telle!!! (shameless WW post-whoring)

A signal?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

DT's Lynching-order list: Chief Rum, Hannibal the Cannibal, Telle, Abe, Grammaticus.

If it's a 1:1 ratio then we have to kill RPI-fan for sure when there are 3 villagers + him left. Otherwise we risk some goofy rule where he gets his brutal and lives for a second after that and it's long enough to claim victory. If Lathum is willing to state that would not happen then we can wait till it's 2 villagers plus him.

Currently we have 11 players left. We don't have to lynch him until we have 4 (or 3) total players left. Assuming a wolf kill + lynch everyday (-2 people) we have either 3 (or 4) lynch choices before we have to kill RPI-Fan.

Here's probably the most suspicious post I found.

For one, you've got a nice tidy suspect list, with the wolf firmly in the middle. Not so quick as to get her lynched, not so far back that it's unreasonable given her play to that point.

Then the paragraph that sets up RPI to be lynched here towards the end, including some stuff about a brutal that I still don't understand (not sure if he means the janitor's brutal or the final wolves brutal)

[jeff061]

Think he was getting at if the brutal wolf is killed last then does the villager he take with him count towards the villager count at the time of his death.

In any case, I still think DT is ok. But that's as solid of a theory as any and doesn't change anything with Telle.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Think he was getting at if the brutal wolf is killed last then does the villager he take with him count towards the villager count at the time of his death.

In any case, I still think DT is ok. But that's as solid of a theory as any and doesn't change anything with Telle.

Yeah, I guess if I read it with that in mind I get what he's saying. But still, any amount of villagers trumps no wolves

I'm outta here in a few, but yeah, I think I'm sticking with Telle. Pretty sure DT is the one giving her cover, though it's really irrelevant who that person is.

[jeff061]

You're on fire today heinze .

[jeheinz72]

Hey our backs are against the wall here. I'm really really worried the game is essentially over with a bad lynch here today. Not time to be Mr. Nice Guy.

[Telle]

Ok heinze, you're really starting to pull stuff out of your butt now And how do you explain RPI-Fan's PM if he's not the janitor? Why would a vanilla villager do that?

I think DT was just swayed by my argument against Chief.

But hey, at least we don't have to worry about a tie now. Bleh.

[DaddyTorgo]

*shrug* I wasn't dawdling with my vote - i was busting my ass at work, and frankly more than a little scatter-brained.

I'm also not the wolf or the janitor.

[DaddyTorgo]

are heinze and rpi roomies?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

are heinze and rpi roomies?

Yeah heinz was the one that broke the story on RPI-Fan's odd PMs, right?

[DaddyTorgo]

right right - i'm just remembering that.

was thinking that heinze and rpi could be in league but i can't think of a way that would be possible.

so heinze is good...i'm good...rpi is the janitor...that's 3 known.

so the unknowns are telle, CR, and Jeff.

of those, somebody is the damn wolf.

i really liked the look of heinze's vote-analysis with the / 's -- imma go back and look at that. i was in the middle of a ton of crap, but that seemed to indicate something

[Telle]

DT, you forgot about Abe Sargent.

[Chief Rum]

Telle apparently doesn't read my posts. Kudos to the others who have at least somewhat and seen why I vote the way I do. I haven't failed to explain a vote yet. If someone doesn't like my logic, then come at me with that, at least, the way I see it.

Day One was a completely random vote. If you're looking at that as a reason to lynch me, well, not much I can offer up. If I had happened to vote for a wolf, I would like great now, for the same--absolutely no reason. Fact is, Day One fell on a Wednesday (one of my two-job days), and I had to make an early vote with no information. I voted for Danny and even called it a BS Day One vote at the time. If I had been around, I'm not sure which way I would have gone between The Jackal and Eaglefan. Wish I could tell you, "Oh, yeah, definitely Eaglefan", but I can't. As a non-roled villager, I don't get anymore info than anyone else, so all of your guesses were as good as mine.

Day Two, I was there when Danny revealed and voted Eaglefan right after him. That tells you nothing, of course. Landslide vote. Day Three, more of the same, although Jackal's post came after I left for another two-job day, so of course, my vote wasn't on hoops.

Day Four, this is one that has been discussed, and what makes me laugh is that Telle (and Jeff earlier to an extent) are going after me for voting Gramm when it was 5-4-1 (with me as the 1). Really? You guys are going to string me up for NOT wanting a no lynch? Did you all think the wolves would help us out by killing one of their own at night or something? Did the value of the daytime lynch suddenly go down? Why on Earth would I vote for a tie there? My vote was pretty much forced.

Day Five (a two-job day), I bring up again what I had discussed prior to Day Four, and that was the need to "eventually" get to RPI and lynch him before his presence could really hurt us. I determined that is tomorrow, based on the numbers, assuming a bad lynch today. I re-iterated that that last night, spelling out the numbers, showing how after today we could be down to 3-2 (good-bad), which is really dangerous when the three good can't communicate as well or trust each other. I have been harping on this for two days now, and thus my votes on RPI. It's amazing to me that that hasn't been more of a factor, that it has in fact been completely ignored.

So Days Five and Six, I have been voting for RPI because it makes sense in terms of the end game. No, it doesn't end the game today, but I would rather spend a day clearing up the end game then take another shot in the dark and end up forced into a bad numbers situation.

Day Four was the only day I argued against lynching RPI, because I felt we had enough time left to make a run at a likely wolf. I thought that was Hannibal (I was wrong, of course, as were most of you), but it doesn't cost us much on Day Four, while now it's much riskier (and then you guys trumped up a case against Gramm, and forced me into a situation where I had to vote for him...ugh).

[DaddyTorgo]

after rereading telle's argument and jeheinz's vote-pairing - i want to see both telle and CR lynched frankly.

and i realize i neglected to mention that abe could be a wolf in my little listing of who was left

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE TELLE

[DaddyTorgo]

what the hell's the vote count now?

[Chief Rum]

When it came to suspect lists, Telle has been on my personal list right behind Hannibal since Day One, and she has been on others, too. heinz did some great analysis there to point out the most likely breakdown for that Day One vote. If I have to switch off of RPI, I don't have a problem voting Telle. She's my #1 wolf by far right now.

That said, I would still argue that lynching RPI is the smartest move, thinking longterm.

[Telle]

Fine. I thought I actually had a chance but looks like you're all gung-ho on lynching another villager. I still think Chief is the most likely candidate, with Abe following behind.