The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Thomkal]

wow seems like several people need to go to jail over this, and a new election held for that seat Have to say I'm a bit surprised that the Democrat in this race or the statewide Dem Party are not suing or doing something about that election. That's one of the clearest cases of voter fraud I've seen in a while.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Democrats 1st bill when they take control of the House:


https://apnews.com/21c560f890e74964a...ign=SocialFlow


Wishful thinking that it will go any further given the Senate and President, but A for effort I guess?

I'm sure the devil is in the details, but on a surface level, I don't have mich of a problem with any of that.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Democrats 1st bill when they take control of the House:


https://apnews.com/21c560f890e74964a...ign=SocialFlow


Wishful thinking that it will go any further given the Senate and President, but A for effort I guess?

Stand for something. Pass bills you believe in. Let the voters decide what they want.

That's a lot better plan than half-measures focus grouped to alienate no one but also excite no one.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

wow seems like several people need to go to jail over this, and a new election held for that seat Have to say I'm a bit surprised that the Democrat in this race or the statewide Dem Party are not suing or doing something about that election. That's one of the clearest cases of voter fraud I've seen in a while.

There's not a lot they "can" do right now. It hasn't been certified, and I'm not sure the state courts have the power to order a new election while the board is still investigating (though the board can certainly call for a new election).

At this point, all they can do is keep the heat on so that, if nothing else, maybe the House can be shamed into not seating Harris (I'm uncertain who actually votes on that: the incumbent holdovers from the previous Congress, or the entirety of the incoming House).

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Stand for something. Pass bills you believe in. Let the voters decide what they want.

That's a lot better plan than half-measures focus grouped to alienate no one but also excite no one.

This bill seems really focus grouped and IMO not really exciting. I agree with most of what's in there but none of it is really bold. It's really fairly mild stuff even it does seem common sense reforms. To me bold is a bill for Medicare for all or an immigration plan.

[JPhillips]

The independent redistricting commissions alone is a big deal that will never be agreed to by the GOP.

I'd like an amendment based on the language of the 2nd, ...the right to vote shall not be infringed. I think that's a no lose.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

This bill seems really focus grouped and IMO not really exciting. I agree with most of what's in there but none of it is really bold. It's really fairly mild stuff even it does seem common sense reforms. To me bold is a bill for Medicare for all or an immigration plan.

Not every bill.has to shake the world. As you say, these are common sense measures that seem like they should be in place.

[Thomkal]

I did not see this when it was first reported, but Mueller has been involved in a court case under seal. And surprisingly the media hasn't figured out who it is yet and why its under seal. Speculation is that its someone fighting the grand jury subpoena, and the defendant lost at least one appeal so far. Supposed to be some action on it on Dec 14. My totally uneducated guess is that its Erik Prince, but wild guesses have been Kushner, Pence, or Stone. Its not Andrew Miller the Stone associate who is fighting Mueller is his own lawsuit.


Mueller link seen in mystery grand jury appeal - POLITICO

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

wow seems like several people need to go to jail over this, and a new election held for that seat Have to say I'm a bit surprised that the Democrat in this race or the statewide Dem Party are not suing or doing something about that election. That's one of the clearest cases of voter fraud I've seen in a while.

They *should* just force a 2nd GOP primary in March and then a new special election in August.

[cuervo72]

I never know what thread these should go in. Trump suffices, I guess.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...xts-chief-says

[Thomkal]

So I guess Trump is not a fan of the deal Cohen might get from a judge:


Michael Cohen asks judge for no Prison Time.” You mean he can do all of the TERRIBLE, unrelated to Trump, things having to do with fraud, big loans, Taxis, etc., and not serve a long prison term? He makes up stories to get a GREAT & ALREADY reduced deal for himself, and get........his wife and father-in-law (who has the money?) off Scott Free. He lied for this outcome and should, in my opinion, serve a full and complete sentence.


good thing you aren't a judge then isn't Donald?

[Lathum]

He is totally unhinged today

[Ksyrup]

Who is this Scott Free character?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Who is this Scott Free character?

Twiiter has had some amusing answers.

[PilotMan]

More importantly, what kind of arrangement allows his wife and father in law to be on Scott Free? And why is he allowing this? I'm guessing this Scott Free guy is a total jerk if they are stuck on him. I'd be trying to get them off of him too.

[Thomkal]

Scott Free is a New God and the son of HighFather, and you don't want to be stuck on or mess with them:


Mister Miracle - Wikipedia


(couldn't resist the nerdy comic book reference)

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Who is this Scott Free character?

I don't know, but I bet he's got something to do with the fraud and big loans involving all those taxis.

[Thomkal]

Could be an interesting week in the Mueller probe. Flynn sentencing memo due on Tuesday, and Manafort and Cohen's memos are due Friday. Manafort's memo will be mostly if not altogether public. These all should give us a lot of insight into what Mueller has found:


Mueller preparing endgame for Russia probe

[PilotMan]

I think I'm at the point where trump is as guilty of obstruction of justice on so many levels, that it's like OJ. You know he did it, it's all right there, the pieces fit, but somewhere along the way, the thought is gnawing at the back of my head that nothing will ever come of it. And if that's the case, I'm so pessimistic that I think truth and justice will be a thing we used to have.

[bhlloy]

Spoiler alert: nothing is ever going to come of it. At least nothing that touches Trump in a personal level that impacts the presidency or his life after. If you haven’t come to terms with that yet, I feel bad for you.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think I'm at the point where trump is as guilty of obstruction of justice on so many levels, that it's like OJ. You know he did it, it's all right there, the pieces fit, but somewhere along the way, the thought is gnawing at the back of my head that nothing will ever come of it. And if that's the case, I'm so pessimistic that I think truth and justice will be a thing we used to have.

The only thing that worries me is the whole "you can't indict a sitting president" is going to go all the way to the Supreme Court and is the only thing that gets Trump off the hook here. I think Mueller is being very smart about "telling his story" through the indictments/sentencing memos, etc. I think public outcry will be so bad that the Republicans will have no choice but to act on it if they want their party to not get another humiliating defeat in the House and maybe the Senate too. Someone(s) will stand up to him in the Republican primaries in 2020 and stop the madness, or Dems will not let Hillary/Bernie/Biden run and get someone with more age appeal to run against him.



I think Cohen flipping to the extreme that he appears to be is going to give Mueller a lot of info to work with will be key, and as Trump tweeted already about that, he's very worried.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Spoiler alert: nothing is ever going to come of it. At least nothing that touches Trump in a personal level that impacts the presidency or his life after. If you haven’t come to terms with that yet, I feel bad for you.

If we decide to let that be true, and we might.

But there's already enough to shame him out of office. He was working with one of our chief rivals during his campaign in an effort to personally enrich himself. He even offered Putin a bribe. Then he spent years lying about it and directing others to lie.

With any other president and any other GOP, that's a really big deal.

[cuervo72]

There's not enough to shame HIM out of office, he has none.

If Republicans can be shamed, maybe. But I don't think that will work either at this point.

Now, I think if they are really serious about investigating his family's business dealings,* there might be indictments starting with the kids and perhaps waiting for him when he is out of office.


* The question is why haven't they been before, or if they have why hasn't anything stuck. Maybe it's just the idea that there has to be a good reason to start an investigation. But it's not as if people haven't thought his dealings were fishy before.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think I'm at the point where trump is as guilty of obstruction of justice on so many levels, that it's like OJ. You know he did it, it's all right there, the pieces fit, but somewhere along the way, the thought is gnawing at the back of my head that nothing will ever come of it. And if that's the case, I'm so pessimistic that I think truth and justice will be a thing we used to have.

I break it down into legal, impeachment, and other political ramifications for the Mueller investigation.

Its obvious that Mueller has gotten many of Trump's inner circle on the legal stuff. I don't know if there is "enough" to get Trump in legal jeopardy, probably too much plausible deniability.

Fair chance the House will vote to impeach but the Senate won't process it, so does it mean anything?

The other political ramifications are the 2020 elections and Trump's legacy. If Trump loses 2020, his legacy will be tarnished. If he wins re-election, it will show that the US supports him regardless of all his faults (pros outweigh the cons) and reaffirms the 2016 decision (regardless of Russian interference).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Spoiler alert: nothing is ever going to come of it. At least nothing that touches Trump in a personal level that impacts the presidency or his life after. If you haven’t come to terms with that yet, I feel bad for you.

It's like people don't remember our long history of powerful men in this country getting away with crimes. Clinton committed perjury and stayed in office. HW was involved in Iran-Contra and pardoned his way out of being implicated. Reagan was involved in that same criminal conspiracy. And you have Nixon who brazenly committed treason before taking office, as well as being pardoned for the many crimes he committed in office.

This country has 2 justice systems. One for the rich and powerful, and one for the rest of us. Once you realize which group Trump fall into, you can realize nothing will come of this besides historians looking down on his Presidency decades later.

[Edward64]

I don't know what to think about this. Obviously a short-term (?) positive for the stock market and its likely that China will "import" more. I'm hoping Trump won't just accept that and declare a victory. The big sticking point for me is the technology infringement issues.

I guess I'll enjoy the rally while we figure this out.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/03/inves...nes/index.html

After meeting on Saturday, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to hold their fire on tariffs while they try to reach a trade deal. Trump agreed not to raise the 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for now. Those tariffs had been scheduled to automatically rise to 25% on January 1. And China said it would be willing to purchase a "very substantial" amount of agriculture, energy and other US products.

Still, some analysts warned that the celebration on Wall Street could be short-lived. China and the United States now only have 90 days to sort out nagging trade issues that have been in contention for years, if not decades. And the statements that emerged from the trade meeting lacked concrete details.
:
Goldman Sachs economists said the most likely outcomes are that the truce gets extended after 90 days or that the trade war escalates. The investment bank sees just a 20% chance over the next three months of a comprehensive deal rolling back tariffs.

"The specter of higher and broader US tariffs remains," Goldman Sachs chief US political economist Alec Phillips wrote to clients on Sunday.

In any case, the progress on trade should allow investors to refocus on the fundamentals. But economic growth is expected to slow in 2019 because of the fading impact of the tax cuts, the impact of existing tariffs and higher borrowing costs. Analysts are calling for S&P 500 earnings growth to decelerate from about a blockbuster pace of 21% this year to 9% next year, according to FactSet.

[Thomkal]

I think if Mueller goes after any of his family, especially Ivanka-I believe he might try to make a deal to keep them safe-after all we've seem short prison sentences (and maybe nothing for Cohen) for everyone involved so far outside of Manafort until he made his "deal" I don't think he pardons anybody outside his family unless its out of spite near the end of his presidency. We shall see.

[Thomkal]

I think too Nancy Pelosi now being the third in line for the Presidency is going to have some part to play in what happens down the road. Republicans surely won't want that, so not sure if they will try to work more with the Dems or not after the new House takes office.

[Butter]

I think the major uproar will be when his family starts getting indicted and he pardons them when it becomes clear they will be going away for a while.

He has no shame, so there is no "shaming" him into doing anything.

[Ksyrup]

Stock market will be closed tomorrow in remembrance of Bush. What's the % chance Trump tweets something about how the market closing will ruin the big rally?

[PilotMan]

His grasp of thing is so superficial. He says thanks to the Saudis for lower oil prices, like they are the ones doing it, and he says thanks to the Saudis, without realizing that the Saudis can profit off of lower prices, while US companies really can't. The US companies can only be really competitive at higher prices, do to the extra cost associated with extraction.

[PilotMan]

I'm pretty sure that Stone and the others like him are making their big stands right now, saying they won't cooperate, fully reading the tea leaves and expecting a presidential pardon if they are convicted. They wouldn't be there without trump and his constant talk of strong, loyal, people he's worked with. It really shouldn't take a judge with much critical thinking to see where this becomes tampering, or threatening to the ongoing investigation. I think the evidence on obstruction has only gotten stronger as time has gone on, with every little thing that trump does to impede it. Many have been convicted on far less that what has played out over the last 2 years.



The obvious point is that the R's have signaled all the way, that they are playing a much bigger game, and part of that is having to ride the t-train as long as they can. If it's really all about power, who has it, and how long do they have it, the ethics of what do we need to do to keep it have completely disappeared. You're seeing this at the state level where incoming D governors are having powers stripped away that were available to R governors. You've seen it with McConnell and his denial of Garland. He's willing to make the power plays necessary to stay in power, and knows that the party will outlast trump, but while he's there, and ready to fight to stay there, they will do whatever is necessary to help keep him there.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Stock market will be closed tomorrow in remembrance of Bush. What's the % chance Trump tweets something about how the market closing will ruin the big rally?

About that rally.

[Lathum]

This crap with the interest rates is straight up bullshit. Wife and I are putting in an offer for a house. Both with credit scores in the 800s. No debt to speak of. One of our cars is a lease. That is it. No student loans, cc debt, nothing. Interest rate on the ore approval was 5%. We had one in the threes on 2012.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

About that rally.

Guess not.

[Ksyrup]

Man, I'm usually pretty good at jinxing things, but today I outdid myself.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Man, I'm usually pretty good at jinxing things, but today I outdid myself.

In fairness, your post was before the President tweeted showing he doesn't understand what a tariff is.

[Thomkal]

I'm not sure I knew he was officially running, but Michael Avernatti withdraws from the 2020 Presidential election.

[JPhillips]

I haven't sent out the letter yet, but I am also not going to run for president in 2020.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I haven't sent out the letter yet, but I am also not going to run for president in 2020.

Since your odds of getting it were the same as his, it makes sense for you to make this snnouncement

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I haven't sent out the letter yet, but I am also not going to run for president in 2020.

Dammit, now I'm going to have to vote for Hillary.

[Ksyrup]

Banner economic day. Market drops 800 points and local gas goes up 41 cents mid-day.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Banner economic day. Market drops 800 points and local gas goes up 41 cents mid-day.

Make America Rich Again

[Thomkal]

Mueller recommends no jail time in a mostly redacted sentencing memo on Flynn. He met 19 times with him and was helpful with the transition team and Russian govt officials and assistance on a separate matter.


Robert Mueller releases heavily-redacted Michael Flynn memo — and recommends no prison after cooperation


I guess someday we will see the extent of his cooperation, but I'm just finding these small to no jail sentences to be very discouraging. There should be some minimum time people have to spend in jail here. I mean this is not stealing a car-this is potential collusion with our enemies and election interference. I think the judge will give him some jail time, but man people have all sorts of incentive here to break the law if they get little jail time out of it.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Banner economic day. Market drops 800 points and local gas goes up 41 cents mid-day.

The.Dow is over 25000 and I just filled up here in St louis this afternoon for $1.85. I mean I wont argue Trump is anything but a shitty president but damn you cant bitch about this and ignore the Dow is up from like 19000 and gas down from lime 2.75 when Trump was elected. It's like complaining about a 5 game losing streak on a team that's 55-20.

[Ksyrup]

I was just pointing out that today kinda sucked. Pretty sure I didn't even mention Trump...

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I was just pointing out that today kinda sucked. Pretty sure I didn't even mention Trump...

Sure....

Again I prefer Libertarians to both and Democrats to Trump but crediting/blaming the economy on the president is kind of pointless. And it seems to come up in this thread (the Trump presidency that you posted it in) quite a bit. Just doesnt make a whole lot of sense because the Dow and gas prices are some of the few positives of the Trump presidency. One can argue the economy isn't just the Dow (and I agree) but that's for sure the to go to complaint on the bad days and ignored during its 25% rise.

[Ksyrup]

Seriously, you don't know what you're talking about. One, I'm a conservative who has been pushed away from the Republican party and been voting Libertarian in national elections the past 12 years. Two, while I consider Trump a shitty conservative for his anti-free trade stance and I had no use for his cheap publicity stunt tax cut that ballooned the deficit, the economy isn't really on my radar as far as Trump gripes. He could leave office with $.85 gas and the Dow at 30,000 and it still wouldn't undue the disgraceful way he has soiled the Office.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I guess someday we will see the extent of his cooperation, but I'm just finding these small to no jail sentences to be very discouraging. There should be some minimum time people have to spend in jail here. I mean this is not stealing a car-this is potential collusion with our enemies and election interference. I think the judge will give him some jail time, but man people have all sorts of incentive here to break the law if they get little jail time out of it.

It's America. Two different justice systems.

[Kodos]

Besides, Trump himself was taking credit when the markets were rising. So he should expect credit when they fall too.