WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[hoopsguy]

Also, on the topic of Telle I would be inclined to vote her straight-away based on Chubby's late posts yesterday suggesting he might have seer-type info. But I've seen him push hard on other targets (Lathum early in this game for one, many others across other games) without the benefit of seer insight.

I'm going back to re-read his stuff from yesterday now. My suspicion is that he would have just said "I've got a wolf, get over here NOW" if it was a seer-type scan. But he wasn't straight-forward about his need for bodyguard protection, so maybe he wasn't here? Not sure ... back to reading posts.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I would have hoped that Balder would have come out by now if EF was lying about it.

No, he's Balder. I'm just worried that the non-kill on Night 2 might have meant conversion.

It could have meant a lot of things, but if there was a conversion on Night 2 then EF was the one who was cleared and he had already shown he couldn't be lynched. So he sure seems like a great target for them to convert, as long as they felt they could get past the bodyguard.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I know that this is only going to encourage suggestions that I might be a wolf, but I'm concerned that our trust lists all have EF as uncontested. He has been playing a pretty passive game, by his standards, since that no-kill at the end of Day 2. He's on my list of people who just don't seem to be carrying themselves like interested villagers right now, even though he was revealed as Balder at the end of Day 1.

I'm not remotely suggesting that we vote him the lynch for today, but at some point when we start seeing our trust lists shrink and he stays alive you have to wonder why he is still there. Pretty much starting tonight.

EF, if you are a villager then you should be thanking me for creating a case for the wolves to leave you alive rather than whacking you 11 hours from now.

Agreed. I was just ruminating making a post about conversion timing and who would be possible conversion targets. We've had 2 no-NK nights, correct? Nights 2 and 4?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My wolfdar is faulty. Yesterday I was getting wolfy vibes off everything I read. Reading through today and I think that everyone is villagers. The only beeping I'm getting is from Hoops but it's more "imagine if he is a wolf" beeping rather than Batman game "He'd never do that if he's a villager" beeping. I'm having some issues here that makes it hard for me to concentrate so I'm going to hold off voting for a bit to see if I can clear my head.

Mine is faulty in the other direction, I'm not getting a strong reading on anyone right now.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

My advice is don't let other people tell you how players act I'm completely serious about the advice, despite the smiley. You've gotten a bank of experience playing with those guys and should leverage it. We're all trying to adapt over time, but most of us don't adopt a whole new playing style very easily.

Agreed. For the most part I haven't. I say all those things I listed above, but I also didn't then vote BK or Lathum because of it, and I did stick on Danny despite being told that voting him (or giving him extra rope) was a good idea

But regardless, I read these things and I can't help but have let it sow the seed of doubt a bit about my "base" of thinking

[MrBug708]

Does anyone want to update their sent/received items?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Agreed. I was just ruminating making a post about conversion timing and who would be possible conversion targets. We've had 2 no-NK nights, correct? Nights 2 and 4?

Night 4 we learned Thor was wounded, and seeing as how he is now dead I don't think that was a conversion. But Night 2 remains very much unanswered.

Assuming we still have a bodyguard role (not at all a certainty), it would be great to know what he has done this game. I'm not looking for him to come out, but we're in Day 6 of a no-seer game (assumption) and information is hard to come by right now. If there was in fact a block on Night 2 that would give me major reassurances about EagleFan ... which is only important to me because everyone else posting trust lists seems to be blindly trusting him rather than hedging bets.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We learn that we've wasted a bunch of time if we lynch Telle and find her a villager. We learn a bunch if she is a wolf, just as we would with getting any wolf. But maybe moreso because she would have been in multiple close races against villagers.

Exactly. I mean I hate to argue "we should lynch a villager!" but there is likely a balance point of filling in multiple sentences of "If PlayerA dies and the result is B, then we can thinking good/bad about Players X, Y, and Z"

Not advocating it as a sole thinking point, but there is some benefit to it, and I think we're still in good enough of a position that now would be the time.

[jeheinz72]

Thinking aloud here Re:conversion.

The idea behind conversion is to slip one past the defense so to speak. Looking at the list of who is left, I see two groups. The top being the likely targets (trusted people, though Racers' trust probably came too late if we're not thinking N4 conversion) and the rest being the "field" (yeah, great to convert them and add a wolf, but no secondary benefit)


1. Narcizo
12. Racer
14. Barkeep49
15. Lathum
20. hoopsguy
17. EagleFan

5. Zinto
9. ntndeacon
10. mckerney
13. mauboy1
18. MrBug708
19. jeheinz72
21. Telle

The top list I've placed trusted players, as well as good wolves. I mean if I was a wolf and knew there was likely no seer scans, well, I'd be very down to have hoops/Narc/Lathum/BK as a wolf because they can be difficult to get the group to lynch

The bottom list is players, I feel, give the wolves no "bonus" for being converted. I mean they could have converted them sure, but there was no real reason to.

[MrBug708]

I read that as good WW players vs unknown/bad

[MrBug708]

Did I miss the role/rule about conversion?

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: I agree possibly challenging the night 2 = block is an important assumption to challenge at some point. Just not sure if now is that time.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Did I miss the role/rule about conversion?

There's nothing stated.. which could mean anything.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Did I miss the role/rule about conversion?

Nothing was listed about it, but we've got no information on what any of the wolf/villager roles do. Just the names.

Conversion discussion could just be me being paranoid (shrug) ... but it has been simmering for a couple of days now and hit a boiling point yesterday with some of the trust lists that I saw. I didn't want to distract the conversation yesterday with this tangent, but today seemed like an OK time to introduce it.

[MrBug708]

Couldnt an equally plausible action be the creation of the fake hammer?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Hoops: I agree possibly challenging the night 2 = block is an important assumption to challenge at some point. Just not sure if now is that time.

Nope, I'm fine with letting that wait a couple of days. I just wanted to make sure that the collective "village" is assessing risk properly. Or at least hearing why I think it is important to be a little guarded with our most trusted villager.

I'm happy to return to conversations around everyone else at this point - I think I've covered the EagleFan ground I needed to this morning.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Couldnt an equally plausible action be the creation of the fake hammer?

Absolutely. There are a bunch of potentially plausible actions, with the most plausible (in my mind) being a bodyguard block that didn't reveal anything about the wolf attacker.

[jeheinz72]

Here's a run down of who has voted for whom, each line a new day

Narcizo
Lathum
Mauboy -> NTN
DV
Thomkal
Telle

Zinto
Lathum -> Danny
Danny -> J23 -> Danny
NTN -> BK -> DV
Thomkal
NTN

ntndeacon
Danny
Heinz -> Chubby -> Heinz
Lathum -> DV
Autumn
*-*

mckerney
NTN
Chubby
DV
Autumn
NTN

Racer
Thomkal -> EF -> Danny
J23 -> Hoops -> Chubby -> Lathum -> NTN -> Danny
BK -> DV -> BK -> DV
Thomkal
Autumn -> NTN -> Autumn

mauboy1
Danny -> Chubby
Danny
BK
Autumn -> Thomkal
Zinto -> Autumn

Barkeep49
EF
Danny -> Chubby -> Danny
DV
Hoops -> Autumn -> Telle
Autumn

Lathum
Heinz -> Danny -> Chubby -> EF -> Chubby
Chubby -> Danny
DV -> BK -> DV
Autumn -> Telle -> Thomkal
Telle

EagleFan
Autumn -> Chubby -> Autumn -> Danny
Lathum -> Chubby -> Danny
Lathum
Hoops -> BK -> Telle -> Thomkal
Narc -> Zinto -> Autumn -> NTN -> Autumn

MrBug708
Zinto
Danny
Lathum
Telle
Autumn

jeheinz72
Racer -> Danny
Racer -> Chubby -> NTN
NTN
Thomkal
Autumn -> Mau -> NTN

hoopsguy
EF
Danny
DV
Autumn
Autumn

Telle
Autumn -> Danny
NTN
Lathum
Autumn -> Thomkal
NTN

[jeheinz72]

Looking at it as such, I'm not feeling good about Mau, Hoops (poss. conversion), a converted EF or Narcizo

FTR, I'm not in favor of going the EF-converted route today. Just noting above.

[hoopsguy]

If you wanted to think I was converted, then you would also have to ask why I would have put the vote I did on Darth. It doesn't make a lot of sense to do so on Day 3, unless there was a 2nd wolf in the mix between Barkeep/Lathum.

I know that didn't happen, but if you want to explore that train of thought that would be the next question to try and understand.

[hoopsguy]

In terms of mau, I've been skittish about him as well but figured we should give him a day to get his sword. Since he is in the thread right now, I would love to hear if that item made its way to him?

[Barkeep49]

What is Narc's claim to innocence again? He was in chain of custody with the sword and could be considered for making the switch. I just know that there was a good reason to think he was innocent, I just don't recall what it was.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that it's time for mau to reveal.

[Barkeep49]

I, again, think we need to be careful with the converted talk. Some awareness of the possibility is good, but given that it's not mentioned I think we need to be careful about asserting it as a strike against people.

[jeheinz72]

Going down the road of "if we lynch A, who do we learn about..."
Narc:
Lots: Telle, NTN
Some: Lathum, Mau

Zinto
Lots: NTN
Some: BK, Bug, Lathum

NTN
Learn Lots: McK, Heinz, Telle
Learn some: Narc, Zinto, Racer, Lathum

McK
Lots: NTN
Some:

Racer
Lots
Some: Heinz, NTN, BK

Mau
Lots:
Some: BK, Zinto, Heinz

BK
Lots: Racer, Mau,
Some: Zinto, Lathum, EF, Telle, Hoops

Lathum
Lots: NTN, Telle
Some: Narc, Zinto, EF, Bug, BK

EF
Lots:
Some: Just about everyone, though I don't advocate an EF lynch today

Bug
Lots:
Some: Zinto, Lathum, Telle

Heinz
Lots: NTN
Some: Mau

Hoops
Lots:
Some: Racer, BK, EF

Telle
Learn Lots: Narc, Lathum, NTN
Learn some: BK, Bug

[jeheinz72]

Count me as thirding for Mau just spilling the beans.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What is Narc's claim to innocence again? He was in chain of custody with the sword and could be considered for making the switch. I just know that there was a good reason to think he was innocent, I just don't recall what it was.

I personally have had him at flat neutral the whole time. He was the person who passed me the hammer I passed to Chubby, which turned out to be fake. I think he was potentially involved with other items as well, but I didn't recall him on the sword that mauboy should have received. But the item stuff is no more than a small data point in terms of villager/wolf, except potentially with the mistletoe.

I want the info on where items are going, but I don't want to over-value it. For me, Narcizo's greatest value is in terms of vote/post analysis. I'm reluctant to vote for him too early because I think he helps drive better conversations. I'm not sure when the risk/reward tilts on that estimation, but Day 6 is probably fair to put him squarely in the mix.

[mauchow]

A quick update and a quick thank you to telle for sending the item my way. Definitely puts her higher in my trust list for the time being. I did acquire skills as well.

I will say for now that one of the skills is likely provable and the other is a possibly provable skill. It depends.

I will give a think on whether or not to explain what is I might do with one of them tonight or future nights. Please understand as it could be a momentum changer and I'm not sure I like being in this position at all.

[mauchow]

I will try to answer any questions when I can. I'll leave my phone open to this page and sneak a peak when I can. I've got a couple loans coming in this afternoon though.

[EagleFan]

A few observations (so I can put my thoughts together later; they may already be mentioned by someone but I have little time at the moment):

Day one:
Narc, mckerney and Bug on non-candidates.
If more than one wolf on me it would leave hoops and BK as possibles.
Assuming wolves knew about the Danny save ahead of time we can discount some of the votes (but we don't know the exact mechanic that saved him, was it a vote being switched or added votes or just a flat out duking; I assume either added votes or vote bwing altered as the write up says I was voted out).

Day two:
Nac, heinze, Telle and ntn on non main candidates.
Wolves could have switched to Danny figuring they still had the extra kill coming; and to gain trust.

Day three:
Bug and Telle last unknowns on Lathum; more than one wolf most likely would not have voted DV that day.
mau and heinz on throw aways.

Day four:
Don't know aht to make of that yet.

Day five:
Need to find out ntn and Telle to really see what this day means.

[MrBug708]

Enough people are vouching for Telle at this point that I don't think a lynch vote will hold against her and I'm inclined to hold off. I do think that a lot of questions will be answered by the death of her, but I'm afraid that we might just have even more questions afterwords.

[EagleFan]

jeheinz? What "some" do you learn about everyone if you try to lynch me? You'll learn what you did on day one, that I still can't be lynched and am a villager. It would be a wasted day.

[EagleFan]

vote mckerney

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I would have hoped that Balder would have come out by now if EF was lying about it.

Uh, don't you mean if JAG was lying about it...

[MrBug708]

lol...you know what I meant

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

jeheinz? What "some" do you learn about everyone if you try to lynch me? You'll learn what you did on day one, that I still can't be lynched and am a villager. It would be a wasted day.

Yeah, that's why I don't really advocate for it. I mean you could've been converted, but I don't think that's a topic for today much like hoops and BK said earlier.

I just noted you on there for consistency sake, and then nearly everyone either had voted for you or had been voted by you, ergo the note.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote mckerney

Interesting vote - reasoning?

[jeheinz72]

Mau - so you have some power, and it's provable, but you can't actually prove it yet?

What would be your timeline for being able to prove yourself in this manner?

Why wouldn't you like being in this position?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Mau - so you have some power, and it's provable, but you can't actually prove it yet?

What would be your timeline for being able to prove yourself in this manner?

Why wouldn't you like being in this position?

I'm guessing he's able to kill someone and doesn't want to end up killing a villager.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

god damn it,gotta go with my gut. it's worked so far

Originally Posted by Chubby

thomkal - I wish I could Telle you something

Originally Posted by Chubby

i'd make it 7-5, a switch ties and risks potentially another lynch

Originally Posted by Chubby

There wasn't going to be a tie

I'm not going to be getting any answers from Chubby at this point, but I've pulled some of his posts near the deadline up.

First one - he sticks with the Telle vote he cast early in the day. Isn't moving it even with potential NTN/Autumn tie looming.

Second one - very clearly pushing for move to Telle, even though there realistically isn't time to do it.

Third one - talks about risk of potential tie if he moves his vote.

Fourth one - says there wasn't going to be a tie, implying he was going to act on the vote. But if there was a duking to be had, he would have duked it to Telle, right? So where the heck was he going with this?

I want to believe he had some insight into Telle here - the lack of vote movement and the shout-out to Thomkal argue that point - but it is really hard for me to put too much weight into what Chubby types when I read stuff that doesn't add up like the "no tie" stuff at the end here.

I may end up voting Telle today, but it will be largely drive by the heinz "learn the most" logic and not because dead Thor thought Telle was a bad guy.

[jeheinz72]

I'd think the subset within which I'm likely voting today would be Telle, NTN, Narcizo or Mau

First three due to the what we'd learn theory.

Mau because I just don't know if I'm buying the reveal just yet and without it, he'd be a very possible vote from me

[Telle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

... I want to believe he had some insight into Telle here - the lack of vote movement and the shout-out to Thomkal argue that point - but it is really hard for me to put too much weight into what Chubby types when I read stuff that doesn't add up like the "no tie" stuff at the end here.

I may end up voting Telle today, but it will be largely drive by the heinz "learn the most" logic and not because dead Thor thought Telle was a bad guy.

Did you not notice that he also did a "shout-out to Thomkal" regarding Autumn before the lynch? He was just thoroughly convinced that we were both wolves.

[Telle]

I'd give mauboy a day to prove his power(s). No point in lynching him today before he's had a chance to take action (which probably takes place at deadline).

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to cast a vote for the very disinterested Lathum. He's lower on my trust list at this stage in the game, his activity level has been more or less shot since Chubby stopped crusading against him, and I want to see where this goes for right now.

VOTE LATHUM

[mauchow]

Well.. let me have some suggestions for a kill then if that's going to help clear me. Would it be good to kill the other half of the Lynch vote? Or go elsewhere? I need input as I really don't wanna do this on my own.

[mauchow]

And I'm also not 100% sure going to put an order in. I'm gonna see if its plausible to prove the other way.

[jeheinz72]

At the risk of sounding all-threaty, just doing nothing will make me think you're a wolf (barring you proving it in the other manner).

I'd prefer you take a hack and miss, getting yourself at least partially into a CoT than inaction.

[hoopsguy]

mauboy, taking feedback from the group is fine but really this is your decision. Some of the people steering you are likely to be wolves. So if you are a villager, listen but make sure you are comfortable with the decision and own it.

Odin and Thor are already dead - how bad a decision could you really make? (kiss of death)

[hoopsguy]

Other part, just in case it is processed in real-time as you submit the order, don't do it right before deadline where it might force us to adjust. Give us a couple of hours, rather than whacking someone with 10 minutes to go and leaving people scrambling to interpret data and folks like heinz/Narc unable to react until the following day.

If it is processed at the deadline, then this doesn't apply.

[Racer]

I also agree Mauboy should do whatever he can do sooner rather then later as if he's actually a villager he'll likely be pretty high up on the wolves target list at this point.