The Official 2015-2016 NBA Regular Season Thread

[miami_fan]

BALL NIGHT!

Anybody ready to make their title/award picks?

[The Jackal]

go wizards

that is all

[stevew]

The cavs aren't going to win the East in the regular season, but I think they'll win the title.

[Groundhog]

So excited for the games today!

My local team in the Aussie league just signed Al Harrington as an injury replacement for Josh Childress, too, interestingly...

[Ajaxab]

Hard for me to believe that one or more of Golden St, the Clips, San Antonio, Houston, and OKC will not see the second round...

[Groundhog]

Wow, that's rough. I have no idea which of those teams it will be... It's going to entirely depend on matchups.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

Over/Unders by conference:

East
-----
Cavaliers 56.5 UNDER
Bulls 49.5
Hawks 49.5
Heat 45.5
Raptors 45.5
Wizards 45.5 OVER
Bucks 43.5 UNDER
Celtics 42.5 OVER
Pacers 42.5
Pistons 33.5 OVER
Hornets 32.5
Magic 32.5
Knicks 31.5
Nets 28.5 OVER
76ers 21.5

West
-----
Warriors 60.5
Spurs 58.5
Thunder 57.5
Clippers 56.5 UNDER
Rockets 54.5
Grizzlies 50.5
Pelicans 47.5 UNDER
Jazz 40.5
Mavericks 38.5 OVER
Suns 36.5
Kings 30.5
Lakers 29.5 UNDER
Blazers 26.5
Nuggets 26.5
Wolves 25.5

Saving my quick predictions here so I can make fun of myself later. Wizards look great on offense, Celtics have the deepest bench in the league (some would even say it includes 80% of our starting lineup!), and I'm not sure if the Nets make some dumb trade to add another overpriced veteran, but I don't think they'll cut Joe Johnson and they'll pick up some cheap wins down the stretch to try and avoid the ignominy of giving Boston a top 5 pick while other EC teams are tanking. In the same vein, Detroit will be the team that's still competing for that 8th spot down the stretch and ending up high 30's. On the flip side, the Cavs are banged up to start and LeBron knows the regular season doesn't matter. Not sure he'll take a full sabbatical again, but he saves his body and doesn't go out all out every night. Bulls/Hawks/Heat have high ceilings but so many question marks I don't like picking them. Toronto could implode, but the Atlantic Division is bad enough and Kyle Lowry good enough if he stays healthy 45 seems about right. Really interested to see if they try to build around Valanciunas or Masai looks to trade him for someone who fits their style better. I think Charlotte and Orlando will try for 8th even though they have little chance, but they'll try long enough it's hard to pick them below 32 in a bad conference. Knicks are the same with the added lack of their 1st round pick, so no incentive to pack it in. Don't think Carmelo gets traded in season though - so many more options available with all the cap space opening up after the draft.

I only really like the Mavs to go over out West. I know people are picking them to fall hard, but Rick Carlisle will will them to stay in the race unless Wesley Matthews is less than 100% all season. I don't quite like the Clippers as much - I feel like they're complacent about the regular season now. Pelicans are too thin and banged up, even if Anthony Davis counts as 1.5 guys. And I just can't wait to see how hard Kobe is forcing smiles and trying to be a leader until he snaps on Randle/Russell for rookie mistakes (or just Nick Young for being Nick Young.) A ton of people are jumping hard on the Jazz bandwagon, but like I said I don't see a point guard, and Zach Lowe is saying Rudy Gobert is looking a little tired after his summer workload. Suns should go over, but terrible chemistry could do them in. Breaking up the Morris twins is a gamble, and maybe a clean break from both would've been a better option. Blazers/Nuggets/Wolves are all young and should play fast enough they'll be in enough games to win 1/3rd of them, especially when they get a few cheap wins against older teams who don't want to match their energy.

[Groundhog]

Interesting rotations by the Bulls to start the year... Going to be a different team, that's for sure.

[jbergey22]

Cavs over 56.5
Hawks under 49.5
Wizards over 45.5(is this a sucker line?)
Knicks over 31.5
Warriors under 60.5
Spurs under 58.5
Thunder under 57.5
Clippers under 56.5
Pelicans over 47.5

[nol]

MVP: Whoever is healthier between Durant and Davis. If both are healthy, edge to Durant because people are always leery to give it to someone who's not on a true championship contender.
ROY: Towns. Mudiay will have some double-doubles and the like but will be horrible from an advanced stats perspective this year (not that it normally deters awards voters; I just think Towns will put up some pretty impressive numbers of his own). Stanley Johnson is a good long shot pick.
DPOY: Leonard.
Most Improved: C.J. McCollum just because his shots and points per game will increase by a ton. If it's to go to a better player who reaches an All-Star level, I think Bradley Beal would be a favorite.
6th Man: Isaiah Thomas

Finals: The Warriors, Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, and Clippers can beat the Cavs with homecourt advantage, and the first three can without it. Otherwise, Cavs. Any other matchup, the team from the West. I was on the verge of just saying Warriors over Cavs, but what's the fun in picking a repeat Finals? The Warriors were dominant enough last year that the most intelligent rationale for picking against them is to say that they're due to suffer a crucial injury. Still, I'd at least like to see Durant in action before being sure because he can be a trump card over anyone.

[Groundhog]

MVP: Anthony Davis
ROY: Emmanuel Mudiay
DPOY: Kawhi Leonard
Most Improved: Agree again, C.J. McCollum, or possibly Andrew Wiggins.
6th Man: No one really jumps out at me, but Isaiah is a good bet if the Celtics play well this year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Detroit misses 20 of their last 22 shots from the floor ... and still beats Atlanta by a dozen. #OhAtlanta

[Groundhog]

Detroit has done a pretty good job of building the same sort of lineup SVG had in Orlando during their Finals year. Bad finish today of course, but they were pretty solid for 3 quarters of basketball.

[Groundhog]

Curry 1 point shy of being on pace for a 100 pt game after 1 quarter...

[nol]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Detroit has done a pretty good job of building the same sort of lineup SVG had in Orlando during their Finals year. Bad finish today of course, but they were pretty solid for 3 quarters of basketball.

Also a 60% free throw Andre Drummond for the entire season would be
I suppose Detroit thinks it can use his cap hold to try signing another free agent first because other than that there's no reason he shouldn't have a max extension already.

[RainMaker]

Curry is unbelievable.

[Groundhog]

2 makes for Anthony Davis in a row! He's on fire (shooting 3-18).

[nol]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Curry is unbelievable.

This guy could play until he's 40+ on shooting and off-ball movement alone. It's not like he's getting open on egregious defensive breakdowns.

Originally Posted by Groundhog

2 makes for Anthony Davis in a row! He's on fire (shooting 3-18).

This is going to be the first year people are actually looking for warts on Davis. He's not yet a LeBron who can create offense even when there are four zeroes around him, and it'd be nice for him to play more than 70 games this season.

[stevew]

Carlos Boozer Finally Explains His Sprayed-On Hair

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Most Improved: Agree again, C.J. McCollum, or possibly Andrew Wiggins.

Changing my 'or possibly...' to Otto Porter.

[nol]

Obligatory heads-up that NBA League Pass is free this week.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by nol

Also a 60% free throw Andre Drummond for the entire season would be
I suppose Detroit thinks it can use his cap hold to try signing another free agent first because other than that there's no reason he shouldn't have a max extension already.

6/6 from the line in the first half today, too.... terrifying.

[nol]

It's just one game but the Magic will at the very least be more entertaining this year. Payton and Oladipo will be one of the best defensive backcourts in the league, Hezonja is absolutely fearless, and Aaron Gordon will have a couple crazy athletic plays per game.

It looks like a lot of the conventional and stat-based wisdom in season previews echoed my assessment from earlier this summer that Milwaukee would take a slight step back this year. They didn't have Giannis today but giving up 63 in the first half to the Knicks (combined with the Pistons and Magic looking to be at least somewhat legit thus far) is not a good sign for them. Derrick Williams will probably be a great waiver wire fantasy pick-up.

In addition to Drummond's seemingly improved FT stroke (I'll get on the bandwagon for him being an All-Star this year), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has looked quite improved as a budding 3-and-D guy who can put the ball on the floor a little bit.

The Grizzlies looked like garbage against the Cavs. They will definitely be back to the drawing board when it comes to lineups that use Jeff Green.

Mudiay is going to lead the league in turnovers this year and it won't even be close, but he had a nice debut. James Harden didn't have much of a rhythm going when it came to drawing fouls, and he looked to post up much more than usual. I still think the Rockets would be at their best bringing Lawson off the bench and staggering his minutes with Harden's more. No Howard for the Rockets, so no need to read too much into this game other than to wonder if the Lil B curse on Harden is real.

No matter how Spurs-Thunder ends, both teams have to be somewhat encouraged. Tony Parker at least looked quick again, and Kawhi has been playing like an MVP candidate.

Rubio looks very confident with his shot, which is awesome; 28 points and 14 assists for him (just one turnover). The Timberwolves just spent a long time in the first half playing a tanking lineup where Rubio, Wiggins, and Towns were out - save for that, it would've been a fairly comfortable road win. Like I said last All-Star weekend, the only thing stopping Zach LaVine from winning 5 straight dunk contests will be him being so bad at every other aspect of basketball that he won't stay in the league long enough. Last year it was funny seeing Kobe chuck up shots when everyone else was terrible, but it was kind of sad seeing him try to iso against Wiggins towards the end. At least they are one game closer to keeping their draft pick.

[Groundhog]

Mudiay - based on pre-season, I didn't see the game today - turnovers I saw from him were 70-80% lost dribbles from medium/high pressure. Not the usual 'leave your feet without anywhere to go' type turnovers. You would think he'll get that under control, but I expect him to average from 4 to 4.5 a game at best.

[Groundhog]

Rubio with 28 points, 14 assists, and 1 turnover in a comeback win over the Lakers. Imagine if he could just stay healthy. Rough night for the #2 pick DeAngelo Russell, but KAT looked solid - 14 points 12 rebounds.

[nol]

Towns put up roughly what I was expecting from him for the season - somewhere around 14 and 10 with somewhat limited usage, which would be really impressive when you think about it for a young rookie. Okafor could put up some numbers that are hard to ignore even for the Sixers' funhouse, but he had a ton of turnovers as well. Justise Winslow didn't put up huge numbers, but he had a very impressive first game in terms of defense and intelligently moving the ball around; he'll be one of those guys who can dominate a game while scoring 10 points.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by nol

Towns put up roughly what I was expecting from him for the season - somewhere around 14 and 10 with somewhat limited usage, which would be really impressive when you think about it for a young rookie. Okafor could put up some numbers that are hard to ignore even for the Sixers' funhouse, but he had a ton of turnovers as well. Justise Winslow didn't put up huge numbers, but he had a very impressive first game in terms of defense and intelligently moving the ball around; he'll be one of those guys who can dominate a game while scoring 10 points.

I was really happy to see Winslow's movement with and without the ball on the offense end. Also good to see Chris Bosh back on the court. If the Heat can continue to get that sort of production from the bench the preseason predictions of a possible 2 seed become more realistic IMO.

[Groundhog]

Even more puzzled by the Hornets. Start Marvin Williams over Zeller, and play Kaminsky 6 minutes. If he's not ready to play right now, why draft a guy his age?

[Neon_Chaos]

Drafted McCollum in my fantasy league with friends who are NBA fanatics but not fantasy buffs. Received a ton of flak for it. IT WAS AN EPIC DAY.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by nol

Obligatory heads-up that NBA League Pass is free this week.

Good to know. Thanks!

[Chief Rum]

Watched most of the Clips game last night. Blake looked amazing.

And Boogie hit four 3-pointers, too. Like he was trying to do it. And they went in pretty good.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Rubio with 28 points, 14 assists, and 1 turnover in a comeback win over the Lakers. Imagine if he could just stay healthy. Rough night for the #2 pick DeAngelo Russell, but KAT looked solid - 14 points 12 rebounds.

If he could just stay healthy he is a 11.6PPG, 9.3AST, 4.8 REB, 2.6 STL, 37 percent shooter with poor defense. (These are his per 36 minute stats in his career.) Fun player to watch against poor competition. Against good teams he makes you want to bang your head against the wall.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Drafted McCollum in my fantasy league with friends who are NBA fanatics but not fantasy buffs. Received a ton of flak for it. IT WAS AN EPIC DAY.

Very nice momentum start to the season for him. Someone needed to score the points they lost from last year. You might have nailed this one.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

If he could just stay healthy he is a 11.6PPG, 9.3AST, 4.8 REB, 2.6 STL, 37 percent shooter with poor defense. (These are his per 36 minute stats in his career.) Fun player to watch against poor competition. Against good teams he makes you want to bang your head against the wall.

Every +- (or Off/Def Rating) related stat says the Wolves have been a playoff team whenever he was on the court, with or without Love alongside him and on both ends of the court the difference has been substantial. And your position on his poor defense has long been a pretty singular one ...

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Even more puzzled by the Hornets. Start Marvin Williams over Zeller, and play Kaminsky 6 minutes. If he's not ready to play right now, why draft a guy his age?

Not just draft him, but turn down 4 first round picks for the #9 (including #16 and at least one of the unprotected Nets picks).

Btw, he won't get it because they'll be terrible, but Nerlens Noel will deserve some All-Defense votes. He was flying around at a different level last night.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Watched most of the Clips game last night. Blake looked amazing.

And Boogie hit four 3-pointers, too. Like he was trying to do it. And they went in pretty good.

I started watching this game and then I had to deal with a sick kid. I look forward to the screenshots of George Karl's face when these shots don't go in.

[nol]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Btw, he won't get it because they'll be terrible, but Nerlens Noel will deserve some All-Defense votes. He was flying around at a different level last night.

He will definitely get votes after another year of 2+ steals and blocks per game. The team success will just cost him a 1st/2nd team appearance even if you could convincingly argue by the end of the year that the Sixers would be worse on defense even with an Anthony Davis or Rudy Gobert in Noel's place.

[whomario]

Hezonjas Jumpshot is very aesthetically pleasing, i bet it´ll be a favourite on NBA 2K for years In all honesty, he is as tailor-made for the NBA game as i have seen from a European guard.

I liked what i saw from Porzingis, his mobility is a real asset even at the 4-spot and will enable him to draw fouls at a decent clip, also get easy baskets on the break. Looked pretty good defensively, as well. The Bucks have the potential to be a train wreck, those trades last season and the offseason might turn out a real killer ...

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by whomario

Every +- (or Off/Def Rating) related stat says the Wolves have been a playoff team whenever he was on the court, with or without Love alongside him and on both ends of the court the difference has been substantial. And your position on his poor defense has long been a pretty singular one ...

Article: Analyzing Ricky Rubio’s defense or lack thereof | jasareviconthenba

Order a subscription to Synergy Sports. You will see the things you are missing. You can watch all of his defensive lapses play by play, game by game, season by season.

[tarcone]

I'm not a huge NBA fan. But I'm reading The Jordan Rules and my interest has gone up a little.
Watched some of the Bulls/Cavs. That was a good game. I may watch more this season.

[whomario]

that article is pretty anecdotal, isn´t it ? If you close-watch a player with Synergy (which i do have intermittent access to) and look for "bad behavior", you can find it for every player. And the only synergy number it actually cites is one in favor of Rubio.

Although the thing I must come down on is the advanced stats pointing towards his enormous impact on the defensive end because as I have proved here, they are false.

Thats not a convicing argument to me. So he transforms a team full of crap defenders into a statistically much better (heck, a good !) defensive team and this is supposed to be despite his defense, not because of it ? And literally every bad habit he describes can be explained by the way the Wolves defense operates. Including him going under screens with no shot blocking behind him.

You´ll say that the Wolves would be better if he stopped trying to guard multiple people and concentrate on his man, from what i see is that he had to do this way to often because of the poor defenders around him and him basically being the only player with a shot at helping and recovering to his man in time.

What is true is that he would benefit from a better defensive unit around him and if you ever watch him play for Spain, he is devastating when he gets the luxury to concentrate on actually guarding his man.

A guy like Zach Lowe for example cites numerous weaknesses in his defense and still slotted him in the 2nd all-defense team in 2014. There is no perfect defender in the league, especially not at the guard position with the way the officiating has moved.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by whomario

A guy like Zach Lowe for example cites numerous weaknesses in his defense and still slotted him in the 2nd all-defense team in 2014.

And I think it's pretty much spot on. The way Rubio approaches defense isn't always pretty and he gets beat on occasion, but numerous metrics show that he does make up for it in other ways (DRPM, for example, has him in the top 2 among PGs the past 2 years).

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

And I think it's pretty much spot on. The way Rubio approaches defense isn't always pretty and he gets beat on occasion, but numerous metrics show that he does make up for it in other ways (DRPM, for example, has him in the top 2 among PGs the past 2 years).

NBA rules have made 1v1 D on the perimeter borderline impossible, particularly if they keep allowing moving picks. Fwiw I agree that Rubio plays the P&R really well and is great at rotations so he's well above average, but I'm still skeptical of him being an All-NBA defender unless his lateral quickness has improved.

Fwiw, speaking of defensive rotations, the foursome of Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Amir Johnson is awesome. Whether you need to pair them with an IT4 to juice scoring, a Sullinger to bang down low, or a Jerebko/Olynyk at the 4 for spacing, those four are great together. All active hands and a lot of players who can switch positions. Don't want to get too excited after one game vs a Philly team who doesn't have any PG, but maybe those preseason numbers do mean something and Boston can be a top 10 defense even while playing IT4 a lot.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Atocep

And I think it's pretty much spot on. The way Rubio approaches defense isn't always pretty and he gets beat on occasion, but numerous metrics show that he does make up for it in other ways (DRPM, for example, has him in the top 2 among PGs the past 2 years).

Phrased differently, for Rubio to somehow be a bad defender despite his steals, rebounds, plus-minus and everything else, you'd be able to put together a lowlight reel of him gambling and having no clue what's going on that would make James Harden look like prime Ron Artest.

When healthy, Rubio is more or less the same player as prime Rondo; Rondo was more vertically explosive and therefore more of a threat to finish on drives while Rubio can generate assist opportunities without needing to hold onto the ball for as long as Rondo does/did while being more willing to shoot from the outside. Any perception that Rondo was a significantly better defender than Rubio is basically the difference between having Kevin Garnett and Kevin Love erasing your mistakes combined with Rubio being white and European. If commentators described him as 'long' and 'rangy' (which as a 6'4 PG with a 6'9-6'10 wingspan, he clearly is) often enough, you'd subconsciously think him to be a better defender just from that.

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

NBA rules have made 1v1 D on the perimeter borderline impossible, particularly if they keep allowing moving picks. Fwiw I agree that Rubio plays the P&R really well and is great at rotations so he's well above average, but I'm still skeptical of him being an All-NBA defender unless his lateral quickness has improved.

That combined with being the #1 player in the league at getting steals on a per-possession basis before his ACL tear, having those steals not result in a disproportionate amount of fouls or blown rotations, and being among the best rebounding PGs in the game (I believe only Westbrook averaged more last season) will bump a player from above average to one of the best 3-4 in the league.

[Chief Rum]

Heh heh, nol, I am confused on whether you're saying Rubio is a good defender or not.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh heh, nol, I am confused on whether you're saying Rubio is a good defender or not.

Yeah, I'm not sure Rondo's a comparison you want to make... He was very overrated defensively even back when he tried. His reputation (and everyone in Boston's, even KG's) benefited from being the first place Thibodeau's defensive scheme was implemented, and Avery Bradley was always a much better defender. (And now Smart is better than Bradley, at least when not flopping, and Tony Allen is better than Smart.)

[nol]

Yes, I was thinking of saying "the kind of player people perceived prime Rondo to be" in terms of All-Star and All Defense appearances but didn't feel like beating that dead horse too much

[jbergey22]

Rondo is the perfect comparison for Rubio actually. The fans of Boston see the same things in Rondo that the fans of Minnesota see in Rubio. The public perception influenced how the rest of the league see these two players warts and all.

[nol]

28 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 blocks for Towns. 19 years old in his second regular season game and he's getting points on drives, post-ups, pick and pops, face-ups, going coast-to-coast, and curls. The Nuggets aren't going to be very good this year, but wow.

Giannis had 27 and 9 in his season debut, but the Bucks' defense got shredded again by the Wizards. Not good in that respect, but Milwaukee's path to the playoffs this year is going to require Giannis to be an All-Star who consistently produces like that.

It is a shame that the Magic will be on national TV so rarely this year. At least we'll get dozens of Kobe farewells. Watch them (particularly this replay against the Thunder) on League Pass when you can. Elfrid Payton is another non-shooting PG whose shot looks much improved this year and Aaron Gordon has mixed some highlight athleticism with outstanding efficiency; when you think of players with upside, he's only 6 months older than Skal Labissiere. And to take the cake, Durant and Westbrook combined for 91 points. Best game of the season so far.

The Pistons beat the Bulls and, if they avoid a 19-game losing streak, will get their 4th win of the season sooner than they did last year. Drummond had 20-20 with a couple blocks and a couple steals.

The Cavs are definitely getting Love more involved on offense in the early going, and the defense with Mozgov continues to look good. The Heat just don't have the bench players to be a huge threat in the East.

Curry had the kind of outing that showed why he was the clear MVP last year in a rematch of last year's West Finals. No need for 4th quarter theatrics or outsized numbers when you take care of business in the first three quarters and get to relax on the bench at the end of a blowout. The Rockets might come out as the worst team in the league right now if you used a BCS-like measure.

[whomario]

This Curry fella seems kinda good ...



visuals:



Holy Crap

Curry could legitimately average 40 with a decent (say, 45%) shooting percentage.