2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

Stunning landslide result for Nevada, which is much more representative of the rest of the country than Iowa or New Hampshire. Like it or not, Bernie is building a multi-racial, multi-generational coalition. And all the polling shows he's just as electable, if not more, than any of the other Dems in the general. I was right about Buttigieg as he got something pathetic like 3% of the African American vote. He is toast with those numbers.

And here's the thing. The more moderate, older, lifelong Democrats who have voted in every election are far less likely to sit out in apathy or a protest vote than the younger generation vote and minority vote. They're going to vote no matter what. And in Bernie we're seeing a candidate who is inspiring youth turnout, and building a coalition of latino and black support (still a work in progress, but if you look at the numbers, he's gaining substantially on both fronts) whom if there was a candidate those demogaphics felt little connection to -- say Buttigieg with minorities, Biden with youth and Bloomberg with all of the above -- they'd easily sit out and turnout would be low and it'd be a disaster of a general election. So the older, moderate vote will have a choice to get on board or vote for Trump, and I hope it's the former. And once they realize their medicare and social security is at stake under Trump, hopefully they will.

And to all the naysayers saying Bernie won't get EVERYTHING he says done in office: we know that. Answer me this: What President has? But you have to aim high, and then compromise for less. Not aim low and compromise for nothing like all of the other candidates. And you have to shift the dialogue and move the needle and that's what Bernie is doing. It's a movement. People are inspired by the movement, more so than even the candidate. And on that point, lets not forget that Sanders HAS been productive in office: Passing more amendments than anyone, getting billions for community health centers & passing landmark veterans legislation.

We shouldn't coronate him yet of course, but it'll be interesting who Bernie's VP would be if he gets the nomination. Lot at stake on and on the line with that. Do you go with someone with less national experience like Nina Turner, or Stacey Abrams, for the identity politic appeal? Or someone slightly more moderate to assuage the center like Liz Warren? For those worried about Bernie or on the fence, what VP pick would give you a little more faith in the ticket, I'm curious?

Well if Trump isn't enough motivation for the young voters than FUCK THEM! They'll get what they deserve. Day after the election they better not have the balls to be out in the streets protesting like last time.

The younger vote has a choice too... Get on board with whoever the nominee is or live with 4 more years of Trump. I hope it's the former.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

Stunning landslide result for Nevada, which is much more representative of the rest of the country than Iowa or New Hampshire. Like it or not, Bernie is building a multi-racial, multi-generational coalition. And all the polling shows he's just as electable, if not more, than any of the other Dems in the general. I was right about Buttigieg as he got something pathetic like 3% of the African American vote. He is toast with those numbers.

And here's the thing. The more moderate, older, lifelong Democrats who have voted in every election are far less likely to sit out in apathy or a protest vote than the younger generation vote and minority vote. They're going to vote no matter what. And in Bernie we're seeing a candidate who is inspiring youth turnout, and building a coalition of latino and black support (still a work in progress, but if you look at the numbers, he's gaining substantially on both fronts) whom if there was a candidate those demogaphics felt little connection to -- say Buttigieg with minorities, Biden with youth and Bloomberg with all of the above -- they'd easily sit out and turnout would be low and it'd be a disaster of a general election. So the older, moderate vote will have a choice to get on board or vote for Trump, and I hope it's the former. And once they realize their medicare and social security is at stake under Trump, hopefully they will.

And to all the naysayers saying Bernie won't get EVERYTHING he says done in office: we know that. Answer me this: What President has? But you have to aim high, and then compromise for less. Not aim low and compromise for nothing like all of the other candidates. And you have to shift the dialogue and move the needle and that's what Bernie is doing. It's a movement. People are inspired by the movement, more so than even the candidate. And on that point, lets not forget that Sanders HAS been productive in office: Passing more amendments than anyone, getting billions for community health centers & passing landmark veterans legislation.

We shouldn't coronate him yet of course, but it'll be interesting who Bernie's VP would be if he gets the nomination. Lot at stake on and on the line with that. Do you go with someone with less national experience like Nina Turner, or Stacey Abrams, for the identity politic appeal? Or someone slightly more moderate to assuage the center like Liz Warren? For those worried about Bernie or on the fence, what VP pick would give you a little more faith in the ticket, I'm curious?

As a 50 year old lifelong Democrat I hope your right. Even though I fall more moderate left of center I would be happy to give Sanders a shot over King Cheatio. I would like to see him throw mods a bone and pick a moderate VP like Stacy Abrams, Kamala H , Cory Booker or Pete B. I would not be very positive to him picking Liz W and would probably have me go third party for a Bloomberg type person.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It also means no hardcore conservative judges either.

Yeah, but that's another, "you were always leaning towards Trump," point.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Galaril

As a 50 year old lifelong Democrat I hope your right. Even though I fall more moderate left of center I would be happy to give Sanders a shot over King Cheatio. I would like to see him throw mods a bone and pick a moderate VP like Stacy Abrams, Kamala H , Cory Booker or Pete B. I would not be very positive to him picking Liz W and would probably have me go third party for a Bloomberg type person.

Just out of curiosity, would you prefer Bloomberg over Sanders? I agree with your VP suggestions, any of them would be good picks if Sanders gets the nod.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Well if Trump isn't enough motivation for the young voters than FUCK THEM! They'll get what they deserve. Day after the election they better not have the balls to be out in the streets protesting like last time.

The younger vote has a choice too... Get on board with whoever the nominee is or live with 4 more years of Trump. I hope it's the former.

If Trump wins with a smaller share of votes again I'm sure there will be protests and I'm pretty sure it will end in violence.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

And to all the naysayers saying Bernie won't get EVERYTHING he says done in office: we know that. Answer me this: What President has? But you have to aim high, and then compromise for less. Not aim low and compromise for nothing like all of the other candidates. And you have to shift the dialogue and move the needle and that's what Bernie is doing. It's a movement.

I remember in the Obama years I used to argue here that it didn't seem like the Dems were really trying to compromise, they just were willing to get half of what they wanted. That's not really compromising. The Senate isn't going to pass half of what the Dems want without getting something in return. And that's assuming they'll be willing to pass ANYTHING in a Bernie presidency, which is questionable, considering they positioned Obama as this huge threat, even though he came in wanting to unify, and to deal, and to find common ground, and is described by some here as being middle-right, etc. What will the opposition be to Sanders, and how will that impact not only what he is promising to get done, but congressional election turnout?

Clinton got legislation passed that is now very unpopular among Dems. Because at that time Dems understood that to pass legislation to had to actually give something up - not just be willing to get half of what they wanted. We'll never hear the candidates talk about what Democratic talking points are they not willing to just settle for less on, but actually give the Republicans something. Like, progressive healthcare legislation at the cost of slashing social security.

I know it'd be silly for them to talk about what specifically the'd bend on, but I'd just like to know how generally they plan to avoid the mistakes Obama made, and how they expect to be more effective them him.

It's easy enough to say that the goal is just have a liberal president and then the house and senate will get swept up in that blue wave, but, that doesn't really happen historically.

The idea that Sanders is desirable because he's starting from the highest point and there's the most room to negotiate down is just bonkers to me. I don't get how the Republicans are more likely to cave on healthcare on anything just because the other party wants more. They're going to give more out of the goodness of their hearts to Sanders because he started further to the left than they would someone who started closer to them? That makes no sense. In the questionable event they work with anybody, it will be about how much THEY get, not how much the other side is willing to stand down from their campaign promises. It's not a value to them in a negotiation that the other side is willing to get less than what THEY want.

Plus that mindset just turns the primary into a promise contest, who can promise the most free stuff. Which, I guess is where we are.

If Sanders was a Republican I think we'd be hearing a lot more about his age and health too. It's kind of amazing that a 78-year old guy who just had a heart attack is this close to the presidency.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by molson

Clinton got legislation passed that is now very unpopular among Dems. Because at that time Dems understood that to pass legislation to had to actually give something up - not just be willing to get half of what they wanted.

Not that it has ANYTHING to do with your larger point, but I think Clinton was able to pass a ton of legislation not so much based on the basis of any kind of compromise, or expectation of quid pro quo, so much as plenty of Clinton's legislation aligned with GOP values in the first place. Personally, I'm not looking to recapture any kind of that magic.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yeah, but that's another, "you were always leaning towards Trump," point.

Not wanting hardcore conservative judges is leaning towards Trump?

I don't get your line of thinking.

[molson]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Not that it has ANYTHING to do with your larger point, but I think Clinton was able to pass a ton of legislation not so much based on the basis of any kind of compromise, or expectation of quid pro quo, so much as plenty of Clinton's legislation aligned with GOP values in the first place. Personally, I'm not looking to recapture any kind of that magic.

True, especially on the criminal justice stuff, it wasn't a compromise for Clinton personally - but it was for many Dems who voted for the legislation.

But I think that supports my point in that - what Republican policies does Sanders support that he'd be willing to get behind legislation for, if that's what it took to get any progressive legislation passed? I think the answer is nothing. So what exactly is the mechanism for him to be effective if not common ground? Sit around and hope for super-majorities in both houses? Hope that the Republicans will just be all excited about a public option because Sanders started with a goal of medicare for all?

[thesloppy]

I can't really argue against any of that except to say that I haven't ever seen what a principled/stick-in-the-mud (depending on your prospective) progressive Democratic President would do, but I have seen every Democratic President in my life try to run the moderate compromise gauntlet and fail.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Not wanting hardcore conservative judges is leaning towards Trump?

I don't get your line of thinking.

My original point had to do with Never Trumpers that are now saying they'll vote for Trump over Sanders. Given that Sanders is very unlikely to be able to get much of anything accomplished if he's the president, switching now to Trump means they were always Trump curious.

[thesloppy]

I also think it's worth noting/arguing that Bernie already succeeded at moving the needle to some degree, without passing any legislation. I think you could argue that his efforts to just put a lot of these progressive ideas on the collective table in the last couple election cycles has radically transformed what Democratic policy & candidates look like in general, and I would like to think that getting elected would be even more powerful in moving the political & cultural needles towards the left, even if he doesn't end up passing much legislation.

That said, I think American politics is obviously pretty pendulous & reactive and a (relatively) radical progressive could be just as likely to set off some kind of transformative reaction on the right as well.

[NobodyHere]

This isn't what the party needs right now:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/polit...ses/index.html

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

I remember in the Obama years I used to argue here that it didn't seem like the Dems were really trying to compromise, they just were willing to get half of what they wanted.

Obama gave the GOP the tax cuts they wanted and reduced the overall total expenditures in the stimulus act. It got only a handful of GOP votes.

Obama was willing to start from a GOP health plan. After a year of discussions, the GOP said no and offered no deal for Obama to take.

Obama offered to cut Social Security and Medicare. The GOP bailed after initially agreeing.

A bipartisan group of Senators wrote an immigration bill with compromises made by both sides and it passed the Senate almost 2-1. The GOP controlled House refused to even discuss it.

Obama made compromise offer after compromise offer, but the GOP agreed that the best strategy was to provide as few GOP votes as possible regardless of what was offered. That plan worked, too. They were able to cast Obama as a failure that couldn't achieve the bipartisan deals he promised.

[molson]

Maybe if Obama started with more ambitious promises the right would have caved. That's literally the plan?

[thesloppy]

Shrug. That still sounds like a better plan than "Maybe THIS time compromising will work in our favor!" to plenty of folks. As ridiculous as a Democratic policy of starting high and not compromising might sound to you, the results are at least unknown, and it's certainly proven to be an effective strategy for the GOP. We've seen results of the Dems trying to meet in the middle for something close to the last 50 years.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

Maybe if Obama started with more ambitious promises the right would have caved. That's literally the plan?

No. As long as the GOP has the votes to stop things, they will. This doesn't change until either the GOP has no power or they decide to change. That sucks, but it's the truth.

When they won't budge after the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and then again after children were massacred, there's really very little chance of them ever budging.

Personally, I wish the Dems would be much more radical in terms of process, pack the courts, eliminate the filibuster, gerrymander GOP reps out, etc. I really think the only solution to this situation is mutual assured destruction.

edit: What do you think the Dems can accomplish with enough compromise?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

This isn't what the party needs right now:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/polit...ses/index.html

We will all be dead before the 2016 primary ends.

FFS Pete, it's over. Move on with your life.

[Arles]

It all comes down to congress. Right now, very few in the House or Senate would go along with any of Bernie's plans. If that doesn't change, the only hope for Bernie would be massive concessions to get things passed. I can't really see him doing it, so I expect four years of gridlock and very aggravated Sanders. I could see the "divide" and drop in civil discourse getting even worse with Sanders.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If Trump wins with a smaller share of votes again I'm sure there will be protests and I'm pretty sure it will end in violence.

Don't disagree with that at all.

The point though was, if young people don't vote because Bernie didn't get the nomination then they should stay home after Trump wins.

I also expect violence if Trump loses by a small number. It is a sad time and something I never expected to see in this country.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Arles

It all comes down to congress. Right now, very few in the House or Senate would go along with any of Bernie's plans. If that doesn't change, the only hope for Bernie would be massive concessions to get things passed. I can't really see him doing it, so I expect four years of gridlock and very aggravated Sanders. I could see the "divide" and drop in civil discourse getting even worse with Sanders.

What concessions could he make to pass anything he’s running on? The GOP has figured out total opposition works. My guess is if they hold the senate they’ll refuse to seat any SCOTUS nominee and block tons of other court picks.

This is why all the policy purity fights have been so ridiculous.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

Stunning landslide result for Nevada, which is much more representative of the rest of the country than Iowa or New Hampshire.

Trump tweeted his congratulations: “Looks like Crazy Bernie is doing well in the Great State of Nevada. Biden & the rest look weak. Congratulations Bernie, & don’t let them take it away from you!”

[GrantDawg]

Sanders on 60 Minutes tonight praising the Castro regime. That is a great way to win Florida.

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[GrantDawg]

In good Bernie news, Marianne Williams endorsed Bernie. There are dozens of Williams supporters. Dozens!

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[CrimsonFox]

PEte is annoying me. He seems like a republican plant at this point. A potato perhaps

[ISiddiqui]

So I came across on this on Twitter, which...

rob delaney on Twitter: "Oh my God.… "

So now Sanders fans are spreading the idea that Warren is a moderate? What in the world is going on?

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

edit: What do you think the Dems can accomplish with enough compromise?

I have no idea, that's what I've been asking about, since the candidates won't talk about it.

So if I'm someone that wants this country to work towards universal health care, the options seem to be:

1. Start "high" and the Republicans will cave halfway.

2. Ugly politics where this can be accomplished with, ideally, a majority in both houses, and REAL sacrifices to the to other side - Social security cuts, defense spending, execution of drug dealers, whatever (knowing that this had mixed results under Obama, but perhaps could be accomplished with a more skilled president and legislature)

3. Playing dirty. Expansive use of executive power, changing the rules in Congress, whatever it takes.

4. Hope for the blue wave of a super-majority in both houses.

I don't think #4 will happen with a Sanders presidency. #1 makes no sense to me. So the pathway to success for me would be some combination of #2 and #3. I hope Sanders can lead that, he wouldn't be my choice of the most likely to, but he looks like the guy, so I hope for the best.

My #1 priority for a candidate personally is the environment and climate change - I think that is a goal more accessible through executive power than healthcare, but I don't have a great sense of which candidates would consider that THE priority (now that Inslee is long gone).

[stevew]

How is Steyer polling at 18% in SC? That has to be inaccurate?

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Sanders on 60 Minutes tonight praising the Castro regime. That is a great way to win Florida.

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Brilliant. I was hoping the Democratic Party would learn from Hillary's "Let's ignore the Midwest", not follow it up with "Let's treat Florida like Ohio and lose by 7 points."

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by stevew

How is Steyer polling at 18% in SC? That has to be inaccurate?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/u...-carolina.html

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Brilliant. I was hoping the Democratic Party would learn from Hillary's "Let's ignore the Midwest", not follow it up with "Let's treat Florida like Ohio and lose by 7 points."

Florida is a red state now. Castro was also a huge improvement over Batista.

Tough to get worked up over this considering the company our country keeps.

[JPhillips]

They bond over their tiny fingers.

[Edward64]

Yup, good call. Make good use of your time.

I'm still kinda rooting for you.

Bloomberg postpones CNN townhall for debate prep | TheHill

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will postpone a CNN town hall slated for Monday to prepare for Tuesday’s debate in South Carolina.

The announcement comes on the heels of both Bloomberg’s widely panned debate performance in Nevada last week and Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) resounding victory in the Nevada caucuses over the weekend. Bloomberg, who did not enter any of the early contests, will first compete in next week's Super Tuesday primaries.

[GrantDawg]

Bloomberg is spending huge money right now to start the attacks on Sanders. Maybe the early carpet-bombing of Sanders will weaken the later GOP carpet-bombing in the general? Or will the attacks now weaken both him and Bloomberg and make way for Biden to sail through?

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[ISiddiqui]

A lot of this stuff has to come out now. If it's all kept quiet and then explodes in the general, it has the possibility of really depressing turnout.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

A lot of this stuff has to come out now. If it's all kept quiet and then explodes in the general, it has the possibility of really depressing turnout.

They need to play that Bernie commie musical over and over again.

[RainMaker]

Pretty sure if there was some crazy dirt on Bernie, Hillary would have found it and used it.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Pretty sure if there was some crazy dirt on Bernie, Hillary would have found it and used it.

Hillary Clinton went very easy on Bernie. Especially after Super Tuesday it was easy to see he was done. For example, this thing about Castro is something I've never seen before and while its fairly tame Florida Republicans are already running with it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Hillary Clinton went very easy on Bernie. Especially after Super Tuesday it was easy to see he was done. For example, this thing about Castro is something I've never seen before and while its fairly tame Florida Republicans are already running with it.

I really don't think the Castro thing is a big deal. Florida was likely not in play and he basically just said things were better with Castro over Batista, which is true.

Maybe if Florida isn't a swing state we don't have to maintain our disastrous foreign policy with that country.

[bronconick]

Obama won in 2012 by .8%, Clinton lost by 1.2% in 2016, Nelson lost by .53%, Gillam by .4% and Dems moved the House delegation from 16R-11D to 14R-13D in 2018. Florida is the very definition of a swing state. Sanders is an imbecile if he's giving it away in February..

[JPhillips]

Especially given the re-enfranchisement for convicted felons.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Obama won in 2012 by .8%, Clinton lost by 1.2% in 2016, Nelson lost by .53%, Gillam by .4% and Dems moved the House delegation from 16R-11D to 14R-13D in 2018. Florida is the very definition of a swing state. Sanders is an imbecile if he's giving it away in February..

They won a Senate seat and Governor in a midterm year that saw historic discrepancy between Democrat and Republican voters. If Democrats couldn't win a state seat in 2018 with popular candidates in Florida, why would anyone think they have a chance in 2020?

Outside of 2012, Republicans have dominated that state. It's a state of old white people.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Especially given the re-enfranchisement for convicted felons.

Remember that Republicans are fighting to add a poll tax for them. Also they've been trying to close early voting centers and polling stations in minority areas of the state for a decade now. No way that's slowing down with full control of the state and the Voting Rights Act stripped.

Sorry, maybe Biden has a shot in Florida but that state is all Trump.

[JPhillips]

Hispanics have gone from 10 to 16 percent of registered voters in FL in just 12 years. Walking away from Florida would be a terrible decision.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They won a Senate seat and Governor in a midterm year that saw historic discrepancy between Democrat and Republican voters. If Democrats couldn't win a state seat in 2018 with popular candidates in Florida, why would anyone think they have a chance in 2020?

Outside of 2012, Republicans have dominated that state. It's a state of old white people.

It's 29 electoral votes that's been within 1-2% in every Presidential election this century except 2004. Running up the score in California and New York are moral victories where we can cry about the popular vote. Where are the EV's to push Trump out of the White House?

[RainMaker]

Not sure what he can do. He made a factual statement that Castro was better than Batista many years ago. Denounced the authoritarianism of his regime.

[tarcone]

Forget the side show. Bernie needs to start selling rich vs. poor. Tap back into the us vs the 1% crowd. Get on college campuses.

There is a way for Bernie, But he is going to have to work his ass off.

[Edward64]

Yes! Dirty Harry for Bloomberg.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Not sure what he can do. He made a factual statement that Castro was better than Batista many years ago. Denounced the authoritarianism of his regime.

Maybe he should spend his energy figuring the cost of his healthcare plan rather than praising the authoritarian regimes in Cuba and China.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Maybe he should spend his energy figuring the cost of his healthcare plan rather than praising the authoritarian regimes in Cuba and China.

He did explain how he would pay for it. Although it is funny that people now care about the deficit.

His stance on other regimes seems tame compared to others. Bloomberg has called China a democracy and forced journalists who dared say otherwise in his media outlet. Trump says he loves Xi, is friends with Kim Jong-Un, and has his face permanently attached to Saudi ass.

But I guess that is better than saying some dead regional leader set up a literacy program 60 years ago. Priorities definitely in check.