2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.

Around a 5 or 6.

I can live with a Trump win assuming Senate flips to Democrat which will greatly control Trump. The odds right now are both will go Democrat, 538 has Senate flipping at around 75%.

If the Senate picture was more of a toss up, my anxiety will go up another +2.

Right now I'm reassured with the odds. I know there will be more drama from Trump if he loses but believe it'll work itself out eventually before inauguration day. And then we can move on with moderate Joe.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.

10

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Around a 5 or 6.

I can live with a Trump win assuming Senate flips to Democrat which will greatly control Trump. The odds right now are both will go Democrat, 538 has Senate flipping at around 75%.
.

Will they though? He has shown a propensity for passing legislature through EO.

[Toddzilla]

12

[Vince, Pt. II]

Compared to a normal election? Like a 15. Overall actual anxiety level? About a 5-6. Almost all of my anxiety stems from people in the general public doing stupid things because of results, rather than the election itself. I have concerns about the election, but not anxiety.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

Can someone explain to me who this was supposed to be directed to? Was this supposed to energize his supporters? Was it to demoralize his detractors?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.

1. Thankfully, my mindset has been pretty much 100% Romans 8:28 this time around. What happens, happens.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Can someone explain to me who was this was supposed to be directed to? Was this supposed to energize his supporters? Was it to demoralize his detractors?

I saw a nonsensical interview with one of them. They mentioned "making a statement" by blocking up traffic or something like that. But really, the bottom line is this: anyone who thinks that anything they do is going to win NJ or NY for DJT isn't making rational decisions anyway, so trying to parse out the "logic" involved is an exercise in futility.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Around a 5 or 6.

I can live with a Trump win assuming Senate flips to Democrat which will greatly control Trump. The odds right now are both will go Democrat, 538 has Senate flipping at around 75%.

If the Senate picture was more of a toss up, my anxiety will go up another +2.

Right now I'm reassured with the odds. I know there will be more drama from Trump if he loses but believe it'll work itself out eventually before inauguration day. And then we can move on with moderate Joe.

I think those two are intertwined, though. The Senate is 75% flipping /because/ Biden is at 90%.

If Trump wins the Presidency, it's because he won in Iowa (Ernst), North Carolina (Tillis), Arizona (McSally), and Georgia (both seats) and his coattails will deliver contested seats in places like Maine, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado and Michigan. If Trump wins, the Senate won't be a check on him, it will be even more red and even more of an enabler.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Can someone explain to me who this was supposed to be directed to? Was this supposed to energize his supporters? Was it to demoralize his detractors?

It's the "show your Trump support" for those who don't own boats I guess. It also feels like a childish reaction to the Floyd protests where they gummed up traffic and caused inconvenience to the "all lives matter" crowd.

[Brian Swartz]

I agree, I don't think it was directed at anyone per se, more just wanting to make a statement in a way that would be noticed.

[sterlingice]

They're the SILENT MAJORITY! (albeit not very good at being either)

SI

[Kodos]

All I know is a lot of Halloween chocolate is disappearing today.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

9, but I have issues with Anxiety already :P For me it spirals out of control. The unknown of what happens tomorrow, what happens over the next week or month, thinking about how difficult it's been for me to manage my mental health over the last four years and empathy/concern for other humans in America as it relates to Trump and his ghouls being a huge part of that spiraling into "how would I handle the next 4 years".

Ugh. Lets just get a blowout tomorrow. Then I can return to my average day to day anxiety of 5 or 6 that comes from just existing

[timmynausea]

Been lurking here since back when it looked like Bernie might be the Dem nominee. The recent discussion of anxiety levels brings me out of the woodwork. Anxiety is my specialty.

Looking at the offshore betting markets makes me nervous. I've been tracking the state by state odds on Pinnacle, widely considered the sharpest book. The good news for Biden is that he has 259 electoral votes that look very secure, ie greater than 75% implied odds per the money line in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all of which have moved strongly in his favor in recent weeks.

That means he only needs to win one of these states (and I'm not attempting to factor in the juice with these implied percentages):

Pennsylvania -189 (65.4%)
Arizona -131 (56.7%)
North Carolina -115 (53.5%)
Florida +122 (45.0%)
Georgia +134 (42.7%)
Ohio +205 (38.2%)

Biden to win Presidency -190 (65.5%)

Since I started tracking on 10/20, Pennsylvania has gone from -285 (74%) to as high as -325 (76.5%) before crashing the other way to its current -189 (65.4%). Iowa also crashed hard toward Trump this weekend, going from +120 (45.5%) to +242 (29.2%) in a matter of a couple days.

Are the betting markets more accurate than projections like 538? I don't know. In 2016, Hillary was a -300 favorite (75%).

I'd put my anxiety at a 9. I know that Biden only needs to pick off one of the above states. But if he loses Pennsylvania, and -189 favorites lose daily in baseball, it all rests on hitting one out of five coin flips, more or less, though Ohio starts to veer outside of coin flip range. Nerve-wracking for me, even if it should happen.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.

At this point? A 2. I can't do anything about it right now. I'll reassess on Tuesday night/Wed morning. I have faith that the poll numbers will be more accurate - in a lot of battleground states, Biden is polling above MOE. And yeah, Trump is going to try shenanigans. But how those shenanigans will upset things will depend on how close PA or AZ actually end up being.

So I choose to not worry until tomorrow evening.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.

7 or 8 today, more tomorrow. It looks really good for Biden today, but 2016 looms. More tomorrow when we see what Trump is going to do if he loses.

[PilotMan]

I'm a 2 when I'm playing disc golf and out doing my thing, and about a 5 to 6 when I think about it. I'm sure that tomorrow it'll be higher. I'd rather not live through my feelings on election night 2016 again.

[JPhillips]

A good example of what pollsters are doing to try to avoid a repeat of 2016.

This comparison of Monmouth's final PA polls shows how samples have been adjusted to avoid a 2016 surprise. 2016 weighting on left, 2020 on right.

Dems are down from +11 to +2. And education weighting is added to ensure 64% are non-college.

Biden leads anyway, by 5 to 7 points. pic.twitter.com/AHzZhg0tlP

— Will Saletan (@saletan) November 2, 2020

[larrymcg421]

I'd say a 3.5 right now. And the only reason it's not a 1 is because of how awful it would be if the very small chance came through. If Romney or McCain were the other options, I'd be at a 1 right now with the numbers where they are. Trump makes it a 3.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A good example of what pollsters are doing to try to avoid a repeat of 2016.

This comparison of Monmouth's final PA polls shows how samples have been adjusted to avoid a 2016 surprise. 2016 weighting on left, 2020 on right.

Dems are down from +11 to +2. And education weighting is added to ensure 64% are non-college.

Biden leads anyway, by 5 to 7 points. pic.twitter.com/AHzZhg0tlP
— Will Saletan (@saletan) November 2, 2020

This is the other side of the house that I just don't know about. There are some big blue warning lights that there could totally be a blue wave. The polling weights have all changed to fight the last war, the district polls are sounding good, the early voting numbers are favorable to Dems in a lot of places, and there are so many incumbent headwinds from COVID to the economy

If 2016 hadn't been the most recent election and we didn't know Trump and the GOP were going to amp their election theft game up to 11 (legal challenges galore, openly welcoming voter intimidation and a police force that spent much of the summer looking the other way, removal of the consent decree, a biased Supreme Court), we'd already have this as fait accompli.

SI

[Radii]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

Biden to win Presidency -190 (65.5%)

Since I started tracking on 10/20, Pennsylvania has gone from -285 (74%) to as high as -325 (76.5%) before crashing the other way to its current -189 (65.4%). Iowa also crashed hard toward Trump this weekend, going from +120 (45.5%) to +242 (29.2%) in a matter of a couple days.

Are the betting markets more accurate than projections like 538? I don't know. In 2016, Hillary was a -300 favorite (75%).

It's definitely interesting seeing the difference in betting markets like this and PredictIt compared to 538 or any other site that estimates these kinds of things. Of course a betting market just needs to set the odds to get even money on both sides, is there big money coming in on Trump from MAGA idiots - or is that really a more accurate picture.

Also, -190? Woo, makes me happy already to have gotten my $$ in at -160.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

Been lurking here since back when it looked like Bernie might be the Dem nominee. The recent discussion of anxiety levels brings me out of the woodwork. Anxiety is my specialty.

Looking at the offshore betting markets makes me nervous. I've been tracking the state by state odds on Pinnacle, widely considered the sharpest book. The good news for Biden is that he has 259 electoral votes that look very secure, ie greater than 75% implied odds per the money line in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all of which have moved strongly in his favor in recent weeks.

That means he only needs to win one of these states (and I'm not attempting to factor in the juice with these implied percentages):

Pennsylvania -189 (65.4%)
Arizona -131 (56.7%)
North Carolina -115 (53.5%)
Florida +122 (45.0%)
Georgia +134 (42.7%)
Ohio +205 (38.2%)

Biden to win Presidency -190 (65.5%)

Since I started tracking on 10/20, Pennsylvania has gone from -285 (74%) to as high as -325 (76.5%) before crashing the other way to its current -189 (65.4%). Iowa also crashed hard toward Trump this weekend, going from +120 (45.5%) to +242 (29.2%) in a matter of a couple days.

Are the betting markets more accurate than projections like 538? I don't know. In 2016, Hillary was a -300 favorite (75%).

I'd put my anxiety at a 9. I know that Biden only needs to pick off one of the above states. But if he loses Pennsylvania, and -189 favorites lose daily in baseball, it all rests on hitting one out of five coin flips, more or less, though Ohio starts to veer outside of coin flip range. Nerve-wracking for me, even if it should happen.

I would be very cautious using betting markets to estimate someones chances of winning a particular state/ office. The books goal is to have as much money on both sides and mitigate their exposure. While some books take a position on an event, it is much more common for them to adjust the lines to factor in their risk. So if Biden is at -200 to win the election and Trump +180, and the line moves from Biden -185 Trump +155 it doesn't change the likelihood of the outcome, it just means money came in on one side or the other and the book is balancing its risk by changing the odds to get more money on both sides.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Radii

It's definitely interesting seeing the difference in betting markets like this and PredictIt compared to 538 or any other site that estimates these kinds of things. Of course a betting market just needs to set the odds to get even money on both sides, is there big money coming in on Trump from MAGA idiots - or is that really a more accurate picture.

Also, -190? Woo, makes me happy already to have gotten my $$ in at -160.

I listen to a lot of betting shows/podcasts. I don't think it is MAGA idiots per se, it is people betting Trump at plus odds because they think there is value there.

[Atocep]

Trafalgar's chief pollster went on Hannity and said he has Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania but the Dems will try to steal it and that's the only way they're winning the state.

[Atocep]

Some of the election news today:

Its a couple days old, but cook report lays out how difficult it's going to be for Trump to win this election.

Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up | The Cook Political Report

Nate Silver said that their projection is bouncing between 89.9 and 90.1 right now for those watching. He said it could hit 92 or go as low as 88 but where it is now is likely where it's going to remain with the deadline for polls being midnight tonight.

Nate Cohn showed a poll that has Pennsylvania supporting fracking 52/27 vs 44/42 nationally. That could be why the race there is tight ing a little while other states have been stable or slightly trending toward Biden. He also said people are sleeping on Biden's chances in Florida.

Also Michigan cities with a population over 25k will be given 10 hours today to start processing (but not counting) absentee ballots.

And apparently going back to '04 only one presidential candidate lost a state in which he or she polled above 49% going into election day (Romeny Florida 2012).

[JPhillips]

Biden campaign released some internal numbers.

Who knows if these numbers are accurate, but here are some early vote stats that the Biden campaign is sharing. O'Malley-Dillon is projecting confidence. pic.twitter.com/VE2agZqBTF

— 1️⃣ day until Nove〽️ber 3�� (@snowmanomics) November 2, 2020

[spleen1015]

I guess no matter which side wins, they stole it.

[bhlloy]

That seems like a good way to motivate R/demotivate remaining D from showing up to vote over the next 48 hours. Interesting choice.

[CrimsonFox]

Anyone else with anxiety feel that if they sneeze wrong they will mess things up?

[larrymcg421]

One trend Ive seen from my many Dem friends is they are anxious because they don't want to be shocked again. They want to be prepared if it happens again. I really don't get this mindset. If Trump wins, I'm going to feel not one bit better because I "prepared" for it. The country is doomed. We have another 4 years of insane crap to deal with. That's true whether I saw it coming or not. However, if Biden wins as expected, then all I did is worry myself and cause unnecessary stress over an election that was in the bag.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Biden campaign released some internal numbers.

Who knows if these numbers are accurate, but here are some early vote stats that the Biden campaign is sharing. O'Malley-Dillon is projecting confidence. pic.twitter.com/VE2agZqBTF

— 1️⃣ day until Nove〽️ber 3�� (@snowmanomics) November 2, 2020

Doesn't say where the early votes are coming from either. So if that remaining 45% that hasn't voted in Iowa, say, is 70% R historically, then you're fucked.

[henry296]

I'm a little worried about PA because I think the Trump ads are hitting on all of the key points to sway voters. Jobs are at risk and taxes will go up even to the point of taken Biden's words out of context and quoting "experts". Biden seems to be vote for me because I'm not Trump.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Radii

It's definitely interesting seeing the difference in betting markets like this and PredictIt compared to 538 or any other site that estimates these kinds of things. Of course a betting market just needs to set the odds to get even money on both sides, is there big money coming in on Trump from MAGA idiots - or is that really a more accurate picture.

Also, -190? Woo, makes me happy already to have gotten my $$ in at -160.

another thing that could be happening, and I would have to go back and look at Bidens odds, is we could be seeing a buyback on Trump at plus money. If people were able to get Biden at plus money say, six months ago, they can now buy back Trump at plus money and guarantee a profit.

So I just checked, on 3/30 Biden was +125 to win. So if you bet him then and Trump now you are guaranteed a profit. If you got him say, after the early primaries you may have gotten him at monster odds.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I guess no matter which side wins, they stole it.

Yup. This is why I think at least some level of civil unrest is unavoidable no matter who wins.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by henry296

I'm a little worried about PA because I think the Trump ads are hitting on all of the key points to sway voters. Jobs are at risk and taxes will go up even to the point of taken Biden's words out of context and quoting "experts". Biden seems to be vote for me because I'm not Trump.

Yeah “50K” plus people at a rally in the shitty Butler airport other night. Dropped some people off there and it was mayhem

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Biden campaign released some internal numbers.

Who knows if these numbers are accurate, but here are some early vote stats that the Biden campaign is sharing. O'Malley-Dillon is projecting confidence. pic.twitter.com/VE2agZqBTF
— 1️⃣ day until Nove〽️ber 3�� (@snowmanomics) November 2, 2020

Those numbers don't scream encouraging to me, honestly. Vermont, Colorado, and Virginia were never really toss-ups. Upper Midwest (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) looking promising. That gets Biden to 253.

Arizona (11) and North Carolina (15) looking strong. That would be 26 EV and the ballgame. Georgia (16 EV) at +4 with only 21% to go also looks better than I'd expect while Nevada (6) at +4 with 20% to go is a little scary (tho at 80%, there's not a lot of votes out there to make up ground). Maybe all of those fall the way they are looking right now and it doesn't matter. That's 299 but some of those are a bit tenuous.

But then the news gets a lot iffier.

On the other hand, Texas looks mostly done unless there's some gotv magic that I'm not seeing. Florida (+2/20% left), Ohio (+4/47%), NE-2 (+6/40%),
Iowa (+10/56%), and Pennsylvania (+big/64%) are some combination of too close and/or too much left to count.

This does seem to bode well for Dems in the Senate, looking at where they are polling better than expected.

SI

[Jas_lov]

For Nevada I always follow Jon Ralston for the election. He said Biden has already built up a bigger margin in Clark County than Hillary and he predicted Biden would win by about 4.

[Ksyrup]

NEW: @QuinnipiacPoll of Ohio shows Biden leading by 4 points, outside the poll’s margin of error https://t.co/bk8vfoEEvO

— Josh Lederman (@JoshNBCNews) November 2, 2020

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

For Nevada I always follow Jon Ralston for the election. He said Biden has already built up a bigger margin in Clark County than Hillary and he predicted Biden would win by about 4.

I'm very confident that NV stays blue as long as Harry Reid is still alive. He's got one of the last machines in politics.

[Ben E Lou]

Our mailbox has never been as full as it has been in the last 2-3 weeks. Today's highlights were four mailers from Cunningham, two from Tillis, three on the state treasurer's race, and several other single ones.

RE: the polls here--Cunningham and Cooper are still enjoying a larger lead than Biden. Cooper's is still consistently double digits.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

RE: the polls here--Cunningham and Cooper are still enjoying a larger lead than Biden. Cooper's is still consistently double digits.

My wife's parents are going to be flabbergasted.. or, more likely, think "Comrade Cooper" stole the election.

[spleen1015]

I think I get the same mailer from Victoria Spartz every day.

[ISiddiqui]

Republicans suffer a loss in federal court on the Harris County, TX drive in ballots:

https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status...60800497672197

Update: Judge Hanen has taken the bench. "Says the plaintiffs don't have standing." That means case thrown out. 120,000 ballots are safe, for now!

Judge Hanen was also skeptical of why this complaint was brought to her today, the day before election day, when people had been voting this way for weeks.

And earlier in the hearing:

https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status...13435896066048

BREAKING: Judge Hanen said the Republicans who brought the case faced an "uphill road" in convincing him that the votes should be voided. The judge said the plaintiffs needed to show that Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins had an "evil motive" in allowing drive-through voting

[bob]

So feel free to tell me if I’m wrong but I keep seeing these arguments:

1. Rural areas shouldn’t be allowed to control cities, and conversely
2. Big cities shouldn’t be allowed to control the whole country.

So aren’t both sides arguing for more local control and that the federal govt is too big?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Our mailbox has never been as full as it has been in the last 2-3 weeks. Today's highlights were four mailers from Cunningham, two from Tillis, three on the state treasurer's race, and several other single ones.

RE: the polls here--Cunningham and Cooper are still enjoying a larger lead than Biden. Cooper's is still consistently double digits.

Amazingly enough, we got none here today

[whomario]

Originally Posted by bob

So feel free to tell me if I’m wrong but I keep seeing these arguments:

1. Rural areas shouldn’t be allowed to control cities, and conversely
2. Big cities shouldn’t be allowed to control the whole country.

So aren’t both sides arguing for more local control and that the federal govt is too big?

Or just arguing that who 'controls' the country should be determined in a fair and balanced way that's not skewed by default/tradition to one of them based on a procedure/system from a past that has less and less in common with today in terms of the factors influencing the results under that system ?

But then again the whole 'angst' about too big (an impact from) a federal government in the US seems very strange to me given the power that states actually have and how granular and 'local' certain institutions (like say Police/Sheriffs office, courts etc) actually are compared to elsewhere.

[Thomkal]

Woohoo for the Federal Court rejecting the Texas lawsuit! I had seen that they were already geared up to locate those voters today if judge had thrown out the votes. Glad they don't have to do it now.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Amazingly enough, we got none here today

Spoiler: that's only because the USPS didn't deliver any of your mail

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

My wife's parents are going to be flabbergasted.. or, more likely, think "Comrade Cooper" stole the election.

I mean, this one looks like it may get called at 7:31ish.